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Competition Creates Better Games is Baloney

Everything you have been told about competition in the sports-gaming industry is a lie.

There is something that happens when someone tells you that everything you believe in isn't true. It shakes you at your foundations. You tend to want to resist the change. You sometimes want to brush aside any information that could radically change your way of thinking, instead opting for the normal and ordinary.

However, the change has arrived today. The information you are about to read will change your perceptions of the sports videogame industry forever. The information below is going to show, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the theory that competition creates better games for the consumer is pure baloney.

A myth. A tall tale. An urban legend.

People believe that the consumer gets two high-quality games when two companies compete against each other in the same sport. Not only is that not true, it is almost the exact opposite of the truth.

But the argument that competition creates better games does sound good on paper. Two companies, competing against each other for sales, will end up producing better products in order to vie for the consumers' almighty dollar. The sports-gaming marketplace is a crowded place after all, and there are only a limited amount of dollars to spend on games.

It sounds good. But so does the concept of saving a cow's life by eating a soybean burger. Then you take a bite.

If the theory that competition creates better games is true, we will see a few very important indicators in our study below. First, we will see meaningful increases in review scores for both games over time, because both companies are competing against each other to produce better products. Second, we will also see the overall quality of these particular games outranking the games without competition. If they don't, the theory simply does not hold weight.

The methods for this experiment are simple. We will take the average review scores from the Xbox 360 versions of each game (sans MLB: The Show, which we will use PS3) from Metacritic. I feel that this is probably the most unbiased and easy way to average the scores for each game. From there we will simply analyze the data and see what the numbers say to us.

So why don't we start with a sport where there is competition, basketball. People like to claim that the competition has made NBA Live rise up to try and compete with NBA 2K, which is in turn trying to fend off the competition. But in reality, the stats show a different story. Remember the conditions for the theory to be true as we look at these numbers from the last four years:

NBA Live - 64, 59, 73, 77
NBA 2K - 81, 84, 81, 84

Neither the first or the second conditions of the theory are true here. While NBA Live has risen in quality the last two years (an impressive +18 low-score to high-score difference), the series did falter during its second year. Beyond that, NBA 2K has meandered around in the same area the past four years. Competition hasn't created better games in basketball, yet.

Next up is hockey:

EA's NHL - 79, 85, 88
2K's NHL - 75, 78, 71, 69

Nope. The theory would hold weight with EA's NHL series, which has been rising in quality year over year -- it has a big jump from beginning to end (+9). However, NHL 2K not only declined in quality after the second year, it finished a full six points below its initial quality, and nine points below its peak score.

Will our trend be apparent in baseball?

MLB: The Show - 77, 85, 90
MLB 2K - 66, 79, 70, 64

It's not even close, and this one is uglier than the rest. Again, The Show does meet the qualifications, but MLB 2K not only fails, but it fails miserably. The game is a full 15 points below its peak score. If competition created better games, wouldn't both game show improvements?

And now for a sport that was full of competition, but then dropped to a single game, college basketball:

College Hoops 2K - 71, 80, 82
March Madness- 67, 69

These scores represent the time before 2K folded its college basketball franchise and March Madness was renamed NCAA Basketball. Keep in mind the license was bought by EA after 2K folded the franchise, so NCAA Basketball is a single player by default. Its latest outing had an overall score of 70 last year.

Before the competition faded away, college basketball did seem like it might meet both criteria. Nevertheless, the data is now inconclusive at best since the competition was cut short. The results are open for consideration, but keep in mind that the other 2K games all declined at some point, and the rate of ascension for College Hoops 2K slowed considerably after the first year.

At this point we leave the realm of hard numbers and start speculating as to whether college hoops would have continued to improve, which is not evidence enough.

Next up are the sports that lack competition. If the theory that competition creates better games is true, none of these games will see meaningful increases in game quality, nor will they see consistent year-over-year improvements since the developers are resting on their laurels, right?

First, Madden:

Madden - 74, 80, 85, 84, 88

Not only has Madden improved every year except for one, it has also registered the highest front-end to back-end improvement ratio (+14) out of all of the sports games on the list. But what about NCAA Football? It has caught a lot of flak for not improving as much over the years, so is the theory that competition creates better games true in this department?

NCAA Football - 79, 81, 83, 84

What? Not only has NCAA Football not recorded a decline in quality since arriving on current-generation consoles, it has also outperformed many other sports games that have competition.

Another game to consider is EA's Tiger Woods series. While it's not an outright no-competition game -- there are several golf spin-offs out there -- not many games try to emulate golf like the Tiger series. So let's just look at it:

Tiger Woods - 71, 80, 80, 84, 80

Tiger is what we would probably expect from a game that doesn't have competition. It stays relatively even through the years and kind of meanders around the 80-84 range for four years. But Tiger does have an impressive low score to high score difference of +13.

So it seems like review scores indicate that game quality does not increase year over year when there is competition. But they also indicate that overall game quality is not necessarily better in the sports with competition. Consider the fact that NCAA Football, Tiger Woods and Madden were similarly scored in reviews when compared to the yearly leader in basketball, hockey and baseball this last release season.

Another popular theory, at least in the pro-football camp, is that Madden is denying NFL 2K5 a chance to compete -- this part is true by default because of the exclusive NFL license -- and that 2K5 was a superior game. In addition, the other belief is that NFL 2K would have been a far-superior product to Madden today. But let's test that theory.

First, both Madden 2005 (91 rating) and NFL 2K5 (92 rating) were similarly scored. So in reality, we're arguing about personal preference when it comes to either game because the critical acclaim for the titles was similar.

Secondly, the only current-generation 2K football title that we have seen was only so-so -- All-Pro Football 2K8 received a 75 rating. While the game didn't have the budget an NFL title might have otherwise had, 2K basically stripped down NFL 2K5 and delivered it onto current-generation consoles. Basically, 2K did exactly what EA did with Madden 06, and 2K's title scored worse than every Madden title but Madden 06.

Thirdly, given the realities of the industry today, the assumption that NFL 2K would have continued to be a successful franchise is making a logical assumption that holds no weight. None of 2K's games have seen year-over-year increases in quality since the current-generation consoles launched. Only one title (NBA 2K) is getting better review scores today than it did when the first current-generation version was launched years ago.

Sure, NFL 2K10 might have been a great game, but the trends within 2K's company point towards steady quality at best, but declining quality on average.

But just to test this theory out with one more sport, let's look at the competition in the soccer realm.

PES - 80, 76, 74
FIFA - 80, 73, 82, 87

Not only is one game (PES) declining in quality year after year, but the other game (FIFA) witnessed a sharp decline before rising again. Neither one of the characteristics that we established to prove that competition creates quality is present.

So what have we learned here today? Well, if you believe in review scores -- the only measurable game-quality tool you can dig up to compare games -- we have learned that the competition-creates-better-games theory is simply not true.

If anything, competition might be a hindrance to overall game quality. Consider this stat again: When it comes to review scores, Madden owns the largest low-end to high-end quality jump (+14). When it comes to sports with competition, the biggest increase belongs to MLB: The Show (+13).

So the question then becomes what does impact game quality, assuming you now believe it's not competition? I personally believe that the amount of money available for development, the amount of time given to develop a game, and the actual talent making the game all play far bigger roles than competition.

The age-old myth that competition creates better games is not the reason why games ultimately succeed or fail. The stats show plain as day that competition is not the biggest factor when it comes to quality.

So it's time to stop letting myths rule our sports-gaming minds. It's time we decide there is a better way, a way paved with logic and sound reasoning.

And it's time we put the competition-creates-better-games theory to bed once and forever because the theory is baloney.


Member Comments
# 41 RaychelSnr @ 08/28/09 05:25 PM
MeanMrMustard,

It definitely was, I worded the article to be a bit confrontational to spark some good discussion (I'm not ashamed in admitting that).

I think you misunderstand how the scores I quoted work though. They are based off of aggregate ratings which take 20-40 reviews into account much like RottenTomatoes does for movies.

Anyways, the brand name argument is simply an excuse. The conditions I set at the beginning of the article would have shown both games improving in quality against each other and overall if direct-sport competition indeed created better quality games would it not?

Unless you believe that there is a giant conspiracy that companies are paying off dozens or even hundreds of video game reviewers in order to get higher review scores. Which IMO, makes no sense since those very companies use Metacritic scores internally as one way to judge how successful they were on creating a quality title -- with the other being sales.
 
# 42 matt8204 @ 08/28/09 05:27 PM
I just think it comes down to motivation and human nature. If no on is threatening or challenging you, people tend to become complacent and don't focus on giving 110 percent. Think about it. If you didn't have to go balls to the wall, why would you? Where's the incentive if no one is breathing down your neck looking to take away business? EA knows that nobody can compete with them when it comes to making an NFL game. They also know that millions of people love the NFL and enjoy video games about the sport. Where else are they going to go? Madden, sad to say, truly is a "take it or leave it" proposition if there ever was one. For NFL video games, they're the only game in town. A lot of people will put up with the known flaws and glitches just so they have a new football title to play each year.
 
# 43 RaychelSnr @ 08/28/09 05:29 PM
Matt,

You assume that OSers are the be all end all opinion on what makes a game great. We have a tendency to value realism and gameplay over the other aspects. When you take into account we are a niche market (10% of sports gamers or so), you can't assume we are going to speak for what makes a game great for everyone. But your points are solid nonetheless about reviews being subjective.

But sounding like a broken record now, what other methods would you use to test the theory that is necessarily better?
 
# 44 matt8204 @ 08/28/09 05:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MMChrisS
Matt,

You assume that OSers are the be all end all opinion on what makes a game great. We have a tendency to value realism and gameplay over the other aspects. When you take into account we are a niche market (10% of sports gamers or so), you can't assume we are going to speak for what makes a game great for everyone. But your points are solid nonetheless about reviews being subjective.

But sounding like a broken record now, what other methods would you use to test the theory that is necessarily better?
You're right; at the end of the day, there really is no other way to gague quality. I just tend to question the validity of those scores. For example, on another site, I remember that they gave Madden '07 a pretty good review score (mid-upper 80's) when the game first came out. Then when they previewed Madden '08, they pretty much stated that '07 wasn't all that good.

And you make a good point about our desire for realism and its relatively small impact on the overall market. For every one of us who nitpick about routes not being run properly or shoe/helmet/jersey color being wrong, there are ten who just want to get together with friends, throw bombs all over the field, run up the score Arena-League style and have a good time.
 
# 45 RaychelSnr @ 08/28/09 05:40 PM
Logic Doctor,

Great way to make a point, but there are a few flaws with how you went about it.

First, who is to say the race car isn't being pushed internally to get even better? You assume the only type of competition for the race car to get better is competition by an outside entity, when you can have just as much of an internal pressure to perform as an external. Not to mention in the gaming business, you aren't operating in a vacuum, reviewers know what makes a good sports game and what doesn't.

If your thoughts on review scores being higher for sports with no competition just because there is nothing to gauge them on is valid, that'd mean there was no point of reference to gauge Madden off of. You can simply look at what other games in the genre and other games in other genres are able to do and judge the games progress there as well. So in this instance, the audience could watch your race car and think it was fast, until they went to another track and saw another racecar going twice as fast.

Games don't operate in a vacuum. That is part of a review argument people have, as some do believe in judging a game in a vacuum even though it's pretty much impossible.
 
# 46 Artman22 @ 08/28/09 05:41 PM
The logic in this article is horrible.
 
# 47 dhlord64 @ 08/28/09 06:21 PM
EXACTLY MeanMrMustard!!! Thats what I was going to say. Madden scores are overrated and the game is absolute garbage. They run like robots...scores mean nothing. If 2k was back they would get off their asses. Monopolies are a bad thing all the time...the evils of Capitalism
 
# 48 Sleazell @ 08/28/09 06:36 PM
I think he is right to a degree. Using the ratings systems to back up his theory is wrong however I do agree that time, money and resources (talent) are the main factors in making a great game. The problem is in business there really is no true competition. True competition is when you would go all out to beat the other guy. Businesses for the most part determine their market share and decide how much time, money and resources they should allocate to reach their targeted market share. So lets say NFL 2K did make a comeback. Why would EA pump more into development when now there is a chance they will sell less? From a true competition sense of course you would want to stomp the competitor but from the business side you wouldn't want to take the risk of spending more money and not gain a significant amount of the market share. In a genre where they have to come out with a game year after I doubt any business would dump the extra money necessary to try to truly out do their competitor (apparently game development is just damn expensive). Thus EA did the next best thing with our beloved football and bought the licensing agreements. Either way I think the consumer is hosed but at least with competition you have a choice to possibly satisfy your need to have a feature that one of the competitor didn't have.

Good article by the way. It's always good people to discussing things no matter what side of the fence they are on.
 
# 49 jsquigg @ 08/28/09 06:37 PM
This is operation sports, not operation politics, and if you think this article has anything to do with capitalism or communism, then you are the one who needs to study more. Capitalism in theory ignores issues that communism addresses and vice versa. That has nothing to do with this article, and all the flamers are arguing with no data or data that is more subjective than review data. Unfortunately, the whole premise of this argument is opinion based, but if Chris were to include sales data into his argument it might speak louder than the consensus of the "experts" reviews. You can argue opinions into infinity, but money trumps opinion, which is the reason for exclusive deals in the first place.
 
# 50 vaderdog @ 08/28/09 06:43 PM
Just a thought, but if OUR (we the consumer) gut feelings and opinions do not count as statistical data relevent to your "experiment," why would a group of "reviewers" opinions and ratings matter? It would seem to me that they are giving a rating based off solely their opinion. What makes a reviewer's opinion worthy of statistical data? And Logic Doctor is dead on, great post
 
# 51 RaychelSnr @ 08/28/09 06:50 PM
jsquigg,

You are right that money is what the game publishers are after. However, this article isn't about sales data, as that isn't what we're measuring game quality here with because we all know that while Madden and FIFA are consistently the best selling sports games, they probably aren't the best sports games on the market every year. Sales definitely aren't a good measure of quality but maybe of customer acceptance?
 
# 52 RaychelSnr @ 08/28/09 06:52 PM
vaderdog,

Because they write their opinions down and they are recorded with a rating. If you get down to the bottom of it, game reviewers are just as much of a game customer as anyone else, they are simply writing their opinions down. I'm not discounting popular opinion so much as trying to use the only method which is quantifiable. Again, if you know of a better way to measure game quality which can be measured in a meaningful way, I'm open to hear it.
 
# 53 vaderdog @ 08/28/09 07:25 PM
As opposed simply using a few dozen reviewers, there is a way to broaden your research criteria by visiting those same sites and quantifying user reviews. A consumer who decides to write up their own review, like you can do on gameFAQS and other sites, is doing so for other like minded gamers' benefit. Put together an average of several hundred reviews randomly. That would eliminate any bias a paid reviewer has. It would also give you a much more broad view.

Plus, our opinions would count to!
 
# 54 vaderdog @ 08/28/09 07:57 PM
And to add to that, you'd also see quite a change in review scores from the initial release (I've got a shiny new toy to play with) compared to a reviewer who has spent time playing the game. The thing about sports games is replayability. I can remember playing the shhh out of Madden until it came out the following year. Last year, I played Madden for three weeks. Then I'd rarely touch it. Initially, I thought, this game is great, graphics are awesome, franchise is fun. Then reality set in, we all know how we felt after just a bit of time with the game. At that point, my review score would be a far cry from my impulsive initial response to the game. This situation would be reflected, I think more often than not, in the scores of consumer reviews across the board and give you (or whoever wants to do it, cause I'm sure not) much more accurate data to boldly claim "Competition Creates Better Games is Bologna"
 
# 55 vick5 @ 08/28/09 08:37 PM
what a horrible article...if anything you just proved yourself wrong...comp does make games better....and way to go basing your "quality" conclusion based upon internet scores from IGN and Gamespot...OS needs smarter writers...
 
# 56 bigsmallwood @ 08/28/09 09:54 PM
@ TheCreep...you are dead wrong my friend. Madden has NOT improved. Go play Madden 06-10......don't worry I'll wait. Do your research before you speak...
 
# 57 matt8204 @ 08/28/09 10:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MMChrisS
jsquigg,

You are right that money is what the game publishers are after. However, this article isn't about sales data, as that isn't what we're measuring game quality here with because we all know that while Madden and FIFA are consistently the best selling sports games, they probably aren't the best sports games on the market every year. Sales definitely aren't a good measure of quality but maybe of customer acceptance?
FIFA seems to have cleaned up its act and was pretty well-received this year, however. A lot of people feel it was in reaction to so many saying that Pro Evo Soccer had overtaken it in terms of quality over the past few years.
 
# 58 Jump @ 08/28/09 11:05 PM
Just because game reviews are the only quantifiable source to use for something like this, does not mean that you can draw such clear cut conclusions from them.
 
# 59 Crimsontide27 @ 08/28/09 11:25 PM
Considering the fact that even here at Operation Sports you cant get an unbiased review by the moderaters / staff writers should end all theory that you should use reviewers scores in any form of statistical gathering.

Its been stated before that people here at this site had rated Madden ( insert year ) higher than they should have , but feel the need to continue to giver higher scores for the ( insert year after ) Madden.

Reviewers on sites such as these are not a good judge of a game since there is usually an agenda behind them.

Take a random sample of 100 people from this site to review this game and it wouldnt even come close to a 7. Yet somehow those that do the reviews on this site and others are somehow " more credible" than those that actually play the game.

As far as competition... If Sega had never decided to challenge the Nintendo...we would all still playing a Nintendo. Sega came out with the Genesis....forcing Nintendo to come out with the SNES.... SNES and the Genesis were doing great but Sega came out with the Sega CD and Nintendo was working on their CD system ( eventually the PS1 ) ....

So now the Playstation comes out and destroys all....then Sega releases the Dreamcast.......until MS jumps in and releases the Xbox.... The 360 comes out and forces Sony to have the PS3 ready...etc...etc...etc...etc

To say that competition has nothing to do with the quality or the lack of quality in titles is absurd. Competition keeps everything moving, wether your head is buried in a sandbox or not.

This is the most ridiculous article I have ever read on this board. Since you dont believe competition makes games better, I suggest you head right on back to playing video games pre-atari, pre- odyesse, pre-colecovison and waste your time and effort reviewing those games.
 
# 60 phant030 @ 08/29/09 12:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by phant030
I most certainly agree with this. There are tons of shooters. Tons of racing games. Tons of rpg's that are str8 garbage. Competition really pushed those games to greatness.

Even sports games like Sony's NBA, 2k's MLB , Even Live for the past few years, have had stiff competition and weren't pushed above average games. So why was Live 07 atrocious? There just wasn't any competition for it. lol

The games are just like sports teams. It takes money; organizational leadership; great strategy and game planning ; developmental talent, skills, and tools; and even heart. If the tools are there but the time frame to implement the necessary changes aren't there....Or if the direction isn't the best...no tools or resources or licenses can help...U can only create/develop to the best of ur ability and see how the end product is recieved.

Competition may push improvement...but doesn't create improvement. In fact, it can push u into regression. Or even complacency. Forcing take unecessary changes, chances, and unfortunately mistakes. Or doing just enough to surpass miniscul competition. Improving just enought to be better than...u make a D, ill make a D+.... Competition isnt the end all of improvement or greatness..sure it can help...but the final determation is the abilities of the team, its direction for a title..implementation of new features...enhancement of the existing...and basically..what they want out of a title...if the artist is satisfied with his creation...no competition can force him to edit his piece.
I agree with you Chris. This a post I made a while back in a Madden Thread. Fits here too.
 


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