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Competition Creates Better Games is Baloney

Everything you have been told about competition in the sports-gaming industry is a lie.

There is something that happens when someone tells you that everything you believe in isn't true. It shakes you at your foundations. You tend to want to resist the change. You sometimes want to brush aside any information that could radically change your way of thinking, instead opting for the normal and ordinary.

However, the change has arrived today. The information you are about to read will change your perceptions of the sports videogame industry forever. The information below is going to show, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the theory that competition creates better games for the consumer is pure baloney.

A myth. A tall tale. An urban legend.

People believe that the consumer gets two high-quality games when two companies compete against each other in the same sport. Not only is that not true, it is almost the exact opposite of the truth.

But the argument that competition creates better games does sound good on paper. Two companies, competing against each other for sales, will end up producing better products in order to vie for the consumers' almighty dollar. The sports-gaming marketplace is a crowded place after all, and there are only a limited amount of dollars to spend on games.

It sounds good. But so does the concept of saving a cow's life by eating a soybean burger. Then you take a bite.

If the theory that competition creates better games is true, we will see a few very important indicators in our study below. First, we will see meaningful increases in review scores for both games over time, because both companies are competing against each other to produce better products. Second, we will also see the overall quality of these particular games outranking the games without competition. If they don't, the theory simply does not hold weight.

The methods for this experiment are simple. We will take the average review scores from the Xbox 360 versions of each game (sans MLB: The Show, which we will use PS3) from Metacritic. I feel that this is probably the most unbiased and easy way to average the scores for each game. From there we will simply analyze the data and see what the numbers say to us.

So why don't we start with a sport where there is competition, basketball. People like to claim that the competition has made NBA Live rise up to try and compete with NBA 2K, which is in turn trying to fend off the competition. But in reality, the stats show a different story. Remember the conditions for the theory to be true as we look at these numbers from the last four years:

NBA Live - 64, 59, 73, 77
NBA 2K - 81, 84, 81, 84

Neither the first or the second conditions of the theory are true here. While NBA Live has risen in quality the last two years (an impressive +18 low-score to high-score difference), the series did falter during its second year. Beyond that, NBA 2K has meandered around in the same area the past four years. Competition hasn't created better games in basketball, yet.

Next up is hockey:

EA's NHL - 79, 85, 88
2K's NHL - 75, 78, 71, 69

Nope. The theory would hold weight with EA's NHL series, which has been rising in quality year over year -- it has a big jump from beginning to end (+9). However, NHL 2K not only declined in quality after the second year, it finished a full six points below its initial quality, and nine points below its peak score.

Will our trend be apparent in baseball?

MLB: The Show - 77, 85, 90
MLB 2K - 66, 79, 70, 64

It's not even close, and this one is uglier than the rest. Again, The Show does meet the qualifications, but MLB 2K not only fails, but it fails miserably. The game is a full 15 points below its peak score. If competition created better games, wouldn't both game show improvements?

And now for a sport that was full of competition, but then dropped to a single game, college basketball:

College Hoops 2K - 71, 80, 82
March Madness- 67, 69

These scores represent the time before 2K folded its college basketball franchise and March Madness was renamed NCAA Basketball. Keep in mind the license was bought by EA after 2K folded the franchise, so NCAA Basketball is a single player by default. Its latest outing had an overall score of 70 last year.

Before the competition faded away, college basketball did seem like it might meet both criteria. Nevertheless, the data is now inconclusive at best since the competition was cut short. The results are open for consideration, but keep in mind that the other 2K games all declined at some point, and the rate of ascension for College Hoops 2K slowed considerably after the first year.

At this point we leave the realm of hard numbers and start speculating as to whether college hoops would have continued to improve, which is not evidence enough.

Next up are the sports that lack competition. If the theory that competition creates better games is true, none of these games will see meaningful increases in game quality, nor will they see consistent year-over-year improvements since the developers are resting on their laurels, right?

First, Madden:

Madden - 74, 80, 85, 84, 88

Not only has Madden improved every year except for one, it has also registered the highest front-end to back-end improvement ratio (+14) out of all of the sports games on the list. But what about NCAA Football? It has caught a lot of flak for not improving as much over the years, so is the theory that competition creates better games true in this department?

NCAA Football - 79, 81, 83, 84

What? Not only has NCAA Football not recorded a decline in quality since arriving on current-generation consoles, it has also outperformed many other sports games that have competition.

Another game to consider is EA's Tiger Woods series. While it's not an outright no-competition game -- there are several golf spin-offs out there -- not many games try to emulate golf like the Tiger series. So let's just look at it:

Tiger Woods - 71, 80, 80, 84, 80

Tiger is what we would probably expect from a game that doesn't have competition. It stays relatively even through the years and kind of meanders around the 80-84 range for four years. But Tiger does have an impressive low score to high score difference of +13.

So it seems like review scores indicate that game quality does not increase year over year when there is competition. But they also indicate that overall game quality is not necessarily better in the sports with competition. Consider the fact that NCAA Football, Tiger Woods and Madden were similarly scored in reviews when compared to the yearly leader in basketball, hockey and baseball this last release season.

Another popular theory, at least in the pro-football camp, is that Madden is denying NFL 2K5 a chance to compete -- this part is true by default because of the exclusive NFL license -- and that 2K5 was a superior game. In addition, the other belief is that NFL 2K would have been a far-superior product to Madden today. But let's test that theory.

First, both Madden 2005 (91 rating) and NFL 2K5 (92 rating) were similarly scored. So in reality, we're arguing about personal preference when it comes to either game because the critical acclaim for the titles was similar.

Secondly, the only current-generation 2K football title that we have seen was only so-so -- All-Pro Football 2K8 received a 75 rating. While the game didn't have the budget an NFL title might have otherwise had, 2K basically stripped down NFL 2K5 and delivered it onto current-generation consoles. Basically, 2K did exactly what EA did with Madden 06, and 2K's title scored worse than every Madden title but Madden 06.

Thirdly, given the realities of the industry today, the assumption that NFL 2K would have continued to be a successful franchise is making a logical assumption that holds no weight. None of 2K's games have seen year-over-year increases in quality since the current-generation consoles launched. Only one title (NBA 2K) is getting better review scores today than it did when the first current-generation version was launched years ago.

Sure, NFL 2K10 might have been a great game, but the trends within 2K's company point towards steady quality at best, but declining quality on average.

But just to test this theory out with one more sport, let's look at the competition in the soccer realm.

PES - 80, 76, 74
FIFA - 80, 73, 82, 87

Not only is one game (PES) declining in quality year after year, but the other game (FIFA) witnessed a sharp decline before rising again. Neither one of the characteristics that we established to prove that competition creates quality is present.

So what have we learned here today? Well, if you believe in review scores -- the only measurable game-quality tool you can dig up to compare games -- we have learned that the competition-creates-better-games theory is simply not true.

If anything, competition might be a hindrance to overall game quality. Consider this stat again: When it comes to review scores, Madden owns the largest low-end to high-end quality jump (+14). When it comes to sports with competition, the biggest increase belongs to MLB: The Show (+13).

So the question then becomes what does impact game quality, assuming you now believe it's not competition? I personally believe that the amount of money available for development, the amount of time given to develop a game, and the actual talent making the game all play far bigger roles than competition.

The age-old myth that competition creates better games is not the reason why games ultimately succeed or fail. The stats show plain as day that competition is not the biggest factor when it comes to quality.

So it's time to stop letting myths rule our sports-gaming minds. It's time we decide there is a better way, a way paved with logic and sound reasoning.

And it's time we put the competition-creates-better-games theory to bed once and forever because the theory is baloney.


Member Comments
# 21 RaychelSnr @ 08/28/09 03:45 PM
Sambowie,

First off great screen name.

Secondly, asking a question then doing some reasearch and then setting a hypothesis and then testing it with more research and then coming up with a conclusion is the wrong way to do an experiment, I guess we need to rethink a lot of what we've done the past few centuries

My question back to you would be, how would you prove that direct sport competition affects game quality in a standard measurable way? To disprove the data given, you have to come up with a better source of data, and I am as of yet unaware of one.

Sure reviews are subjective, but so are your opinions which you think are right. Until you come up with harder numbers than the ones I have provided, you are simply the one speculating that the numbers are lying
 
# 22 TombSong @ 08/28/09 03:45 PM
This article speaks as though reviews is the ONLY data to point to to prove or disprove competition breeds better games, LOL

What god did he pray to that told him that and sent him to OS to preach this garbage ?

Here is proof, IAN cummings was inspired to BEST 2Ks Gang tackling. Thats what started him coming to these forums. LBzRule challeneged IANS claim with vids and the rest is history.

Everything you see in this years madden was their answer to alot of stuff 2K 5 did well. How can you look at Madden 2010 and doubt it was not competition that inspired the attempt ?

The only time competition is NOT needed to make a better product is if the one maker of the product is self motivated and takes pride in ALL its work, and makes sure it puts out a quality product no matter what.
 
# 23 StormJH1 @ 08/28/09 03:46 PM
spursfan, here's the problem with that logic: You're saying that Madden 2005 was the last great game because 2k5 pushed it to be better. But those two games were released in the same year. Nobody talks much about ESPN NFL Football, which was the 2004 game from 2k. In fact, the ONLY reason people started talking about 2k5 as much as they did was the decision to release it for $19.99 (We all remember the T.O. commercials--"Tis the season for giving, but receivings aiiight")

So, are you saying that Madden never comes up with Hit Stick unless 2k is there? What were they afraid of this year, when they slowed down the gameplay and put in Pro-Tak....Backbreaker?

Even in the sports where we have "competition", there is usually a big dog and a little dog, and the big dog doesn't lower itself to copying innovations of the smaller dog. If the smaller dog's innovations catch on, then maybe their sales will improve, but that's simply evidence of an internal creative process.

In 2007, EA's hockey game clearly surpassed 2k's. NHL 2k8 offered a much deeper feature set, functioning online leagues, and all kinds of franchise goodies. But the gameplay sucked, and NHL 08 focused on refining an idea (Shot Stick) that they created on their own. In NHL 09, did EA bother to go back and copy all of the missing features that 2k8 had and they didn't? Heck no! They focused on their own formula, and made another GoTY.

Contemporaneous games don't influence each other to the degree that consumers perceive them to.
 
# 24 BBkobe87 @ 08/28/09 03:47 PM
I wont even give this article a chance. Since when did it become acceptable to spell balogne, "baloney"??
 
# 25 RaychelSnr @ 08/28/09 03:54 PM
StormJH1,

Great points all around man. Although I will disagree that review scores are unreliable simply because the games are all on an even footing. In testing the theory you will see I don't take into account the initial quality as a measure of competition but the improvement the game either does or doesn't make. So the console lifespan issue really isn't a big deal in terms of what we're measuring.

I agree wholeheartedly sports gaming companies are still figuring out how to properly develop games on a one year cycle for these machines, and it has resulted in less than stellar games overall across the board, but you'd at least expect games to be getting better against each other if direct sport competition was truly a factor
 
# 26 StormJH1 @ 08/28/09 03:54 PM
TombSong, I knew that comeback about gang tackling was coming. Ian Cummings TOLD people that they were inspired to make people forget about 2k5 because they were personally tired of hearing 2k5 fanboys talk about how a 5-year old product was better than theirs.

That's NOT "competition". The "competition" theory says that EA is going to fear LOSING SALES to a rival game coming out in the same year, so they innovate (and borrow ideas) in ways that they wouldn't or couldn't in an exclusive license environment.

EA has no reason to keep chasing the ghosts of a football game that very few people cared about until (a) it was gone; and (b) they lowered the price of it by $30!!!
 
# 27 RaychelSnr @ 08/28/09 03:58 PM
Jet Sufferer,

So your only response is to simply try to call me a Marxist? Is that really your refute?

I'm not saying competition doesn't create better games through the marketplace, I even said that it does in a post or two in this thread. But the point I'm making here is that direct-sport competition is not the biggest reason why a developer will create better games ultimately.

So if you want to try to belittle me and call me a Marxist on a Sports Video Games message board, I guess that's your prerogative. I'd submit to you my political beliefs are almost in direct contrast on the other side of that theory though.
 
# 28 Jet Sufferer @ 08/28/09 04:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MMChrisS
Jet Sufferer,

So your only response is to simply try to call me a Marxist? Is that really your refute?

I'm not saying competition doesn't create better games through the marketplace, I even said that it does in a post or two in this thread. But the point I'm making here is that direct-sport competition is not the biggest reason why a developer will create better games ultimately.

So if you want to try to belittle me and call me a Marxist on a Sports Video Games message board, I guess that's your prerogative. I'd submit to you my political beliefs are almost in direct contrast on the other side of that theory though.
Try reading comprehension and not self pity, I didn't call you a Marxist.

Your premise has been proven wrong by history a milliion times over and the comparison between Capitalism and Communism is the perfect analogy.

The premise is so ridiculous that it's almost a joke/satire, or just meant to be argumentative/provacative.

If you're going to make a case AGAINST competition and use garbage data like video game "reviews" to prove your "point", you should expect a little criticism. Using game "review" scores is the equivalent of "Garbage In, Garbage Out".

Again, I didn't call you a Marxist, but if you're going to argue AGAINST COMPETITION, you shouldn't be shocked when the obvious comparison is made between the "success" of Communism vs. Capitalism.
 
# 29 TracerBullet @ 08/28/09 04:10 PM
I just want to know where all this solid data people are talking about is... What is the solid data of showing that competition helps video games?
 
# 30 Blitzburgh @ 08/28/09 04:13 PM
Agree!
 
# 31 bigsmallwood @ 08/28/09 04:13 PM
Some people @apps80 & TreyIM2 have to understand that some of us are not let by a blind bias, but rather by common sense! You don't have to be a Fanboy to see the flaws in thinking competition would not influence games and their sales, promotions etc!
 
# 32 RaychelSnr @ 08/28/09 04:13 PM
I'm simply arguing against direct-sport competition being the leading cause of why a game is either good or bad. I see nothing wrong with the conclusion that direct-sport competition isn't even close to the main reason why a game is good or bad. Given the data presented, I would say it's pretty clear that it isn't. If direct-sport competition is the reason why games succeed or fail quality wise, I simply have to ask for a more reliable and better way of measuring it?

Again: budget, time of development and talent developing the game. Those are most likely the factors which determine the games final quality and not direct sport competition. I've already said that the marketplace as a whole is competitive (football vs. basketball vs. FPS, etc.). On a massive scale, consumers are making the choices between Madden, NBA 2K or Call of Duty.

People at OS assume that more realism = better game. But at some point, a game becomes tedious and un-fun if realism gets too high. Plus there's the whole fact you will never come close to 100% realism in a sports game. Guys here are merely arguing they feel or think that this can't be true because they don't think Madden was realistic for a few years (for example). They are right, Madden wasn't the most realistic game for awhile, but from a pure fun factor standpoint in the wider gaming market, Madden was widely considered good but not awesome.

Realism is important to us here at OS, but in considering overall quality and competition, you have to consider the fact that not everyone thinks the same way.
 
# 33 ChaseB @ 08/28/09 04:16 PM
I think at a base level, if I were to argue against this, I would argue against how Metacritic averages the final scores rather than the point about reviews being right or wrong. I think that's where I would disagree with Chris a bit because the accumulation of the final overall rating is sketchy at times.
 
# 34 MeanMrMustard @ 08/28/09 04:42 PM
I guess I just don't see how a sample of 4 reviews per sport, given a bunch of unknown variables, necessarily disproves the basic premise "competition makes things better." (One such unknown variable is how brand name recognition affects sales, which may affect how much "better" a game would have to be to keep up with the competition.)

I don't fault the author for the lack of sample size - a necessary evil, given the content - I just don't think it tells us a whole lot. Maybe it takes a few years for game "quality" (as measured by reviews) to catch up to sales in sports. It's the sales, after all, that the companies care about with reference to competition.

Anyway, an interesting take, and it certainly sparked some good discussion. I just have a hard time swallowing the premise: "The information below is going to show, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the theory that competition creates better games for the consumer is pure baloney."

That's a bit presumptuous, wouldn't you say?
 
# 35 tpaterniti @ 08/28/09 04:49 PM
Your argument is deeply flawed for two main reasons: first, while each competitor's quality improving is one argument for competition, it is not the only argument for it and not even the best one. The major argument for competition is not that each individual competitor improves it's quality but that the overall quality improves for the consumer. The point of competition is not for NBA Live to necessarily improve each year but for the quality of the basketball video game market to improve each year. NBA Live may always stink, but the consumer keeps his voice and can go a different direction if he wants.

Second, Your argument assumes that competition is the only factor that drives the improvement of ganes or lack theirof. It is not. In the case of NBA live, it may be an issue of EA's fundamental approach to the game which keeps it's ratings low, or they may have calculated that based on the money it brings in improvement is not worth it financially.

Third, your argument gives a lot of credit to the quality of ratings. First of all, ratings are not done in a vacuum and having something to compare one game to impacts it's ratings dramatically. For example, the Madden series would probably not rate so high if 2K were making a licensed game just as it did not in 2004. Next the ratings tend to be a little suspicious at times any way. They start off high then go down. In part this is due to the fact that people don't have a chance to see the problems in a game before it is rated. This tends to work in favor of graphically excellent but poorly programmed games which in fact is what we see to be the case. Next, since rating services and video game websites rely on the video game companies for advanced game copies and thus for their livelihood, the video game companies have all the leverage and in fact they have threatened to remove advance viewing privaleges from sites that rate them too low when the game is first released. Do a search and you can find several articles about this online.

Finally, your argument assumes that quality is the only benefit of competition. In fact price is typically the biggest benefit. When two companies compete it is true that quality goes up but price almost always goes down. This is not always used as it was with the $20 2K5 in 2004 but it is always an option whereas in a monopoly it is not.

I said two reasons but here are four why your argument doesn't hold water and why you have shown in my opinion a poor understanding of the issues you are trying to discuss. I mean that in the nicest possible way. I apologize for the typos. I hate them but I am on an iPhone at the moment.
 
# 36 matt8204 @ 08/28/09 05:06 PM
Very shaky argument by the author. I don't think that review scores tell the whole story. Scores are extremely subjective. And who's to say that a particular reviewer truly understands all the nuances of a sport?

Why not go to sites such as Operation Sports to get a general idea of people's attitudes towards these games? Or check user reviews on the websites, which are far more honest and in-depth IMHO.
 
# 37 speels @ 08/28/09 05:16 PM
This thread is awesome!!!!!!!

When I first read this article I was like "Wow" there is going to be some crap flinging going on in this thread. And I was right.
I think that a different title may have helped, and I think that a different approach may also have helped, however, it made its point to me and I do agree that direct competition is not the largest contributing factor in determining af a game is good or bad.

The point that was made about how Ian said they were adding pro-tak because they were tired of hearing how awesome 2K5 was makes little sense to me. What Ian was really saying is that 'madden fans have spoken up and want pro-tak in the game, so we are adding it'. I don't think it was competition, because lets face it, 2k5 is not direct competition for Madden10.
Games are getting better because gamers are forcing them too. The biggest influence on any game is sales and if the sales slow you get 2 different things happen. 1) Games get better ie Tiger Woods vs Hot Shots golf--this drove Tiger to be more Sim and less arcade because Hot Shots was way more fun to play. 2) Games fold and we are left without an option, ie Eastside Hockey Manager.

The people involved in the developement of the game also have a lot to do with how a game improves. Just look at FM, there is zero competition for that game yet it developers keep making it better year after year. Also, look at some of EA's game--David Littman has made the NHL series one of the most popular through his approach of listening to consumers and doing things his way.

Direct competition is not the leading factor in determining if a game will improve, but I do believe it is a factor.

Also, until someone can show another way to compare sports games, then I will just have to accept that a random average of review scores is the best way, although as Chase stated there is some room for question with metacritics scores.

Rememer, as consumers we have the last say about if a sports game needs improvement. We can refuse to give moeny for a game that is below our expectations and force these companies to make games that are better. We could also just be happy with what we've got and let these companies have a 2 year developement cycle instead of forcing them to produce a new game year after year. I mean look at games like HALO or GTA, if those companies were forced to come up with a new game every year, do you think they would have the critical acclaim that they do.
 
# 38 RaychelSnr @ 08/28/09 05:19 PM
tpaternitl,

Your post has nothing to do with the points at hand. Your points are good, but they aren't what was being argued in the article, not even close.

I wasn't arguing the case for the consumer, as I am a firm believer in more choices being better for the consumer. I'm not arguing the point of price, as that definitely was the case with more competition. There is no doubt the consumer wins on both of these options when direct sport competition is going on. What I was arguing was the notion that games are automatically made better if two games are made for the same sport. The stats don't back up that notion.

Your second point is right in line with my ultimate conclusion at the end of the article. Direct sport Competition ISN'T the only thing which drives game quality and it definitely isn't the most important.

Your third point is the same thing everyone else is saying. If you don't think aggregate review scores are the best way to measure game quality, then show me another method which is better and is quantifiable. Gut feelings and individual subjective opinions don't count.

The point of the article is discussing the simple fact direct-sport competition (NBA vs. NBA) isn't as big of a factor as many would have you believe in the end product rating. I believe that despite all of the people trying to say otherwise, no one has yet to come up with better evidence to the contrary that direct-sport competition doesn't effect game quality in the way people have assumed.
 
# 39 RaychelSnr @ 08/28/09 05:21 PM
NavigatorD83,

I challenge you to come up with a better system for showing game quality that proves that direct-sport competition is a huge factor in game quality. The problem is there isn't such a system that would.

Is the system of using aggregate game review scores a perfect way to quantify game quality? No. Is it the best way we have available? I believe so.

Again, if there is a better way which proves otherwise, I'm open to hear it.
 
# 40 speels @ 08/28/09 05:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by matt8204
Very shaky argument by the author. I don't think that review scores tell the whole story. Scores are extremely subjective. And who's to say that a particular reviewer truly understands all the nuances of a sport?

Why not go to sites such as Operation Sports to get a general idea of people's attitudes towards these games? Or check user reviews on the websites, which are far more honest and in-depth IMHO.
I agree with this, but the only problem is not everyone says anything. There are how many members at OS that have Madden10 and I would hazard a guess that only a small percentage of them write on these boards. Also, just look at the amount of threads there are about the "bad" things with Madden as opposed to the "good" thing threads.
Generally if people are satisfied with a product they will not say anything, but the people that have problems are the ones that raise awareness of these problems. I mean, when you buy a new item, let's say and XBOX 360, if nothing went wrong with it, would you phone Microsoft and say"I just wanted to let you know that your system us perfect and I am extremely satisfied with my purchase." I doubt it, however, if there was something wrong with it, the first thing you would do is get on the phone and tell someone at microsoft, and probably OS that you have problems.

All I'm saying is that looking at OS or any forums for that matter is going to give as biased an opinion as averaging reviews.
 


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