Home
Feature Article
Competition Creates Better Games is Baloney

Everything you have been told about competition in the sports-gaming industry is a lie.

There is something that happens when someone tells you that everything you believe in isn't true. It shakes you at your foundations. You tend to want to resist the change. You sometimes want to brush aside any information that could radically change your way of thinking, instead opting for the normal and ordinary.

However, the change has arrived today. The information you are about to read will change your perceptions of the sports videogame industry forever. The information below is going to show, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that the theory that competition creates better games for the consumer is pure baloney.

A myth. A tall tale. An urban legend.

People believe that the consumer gets two high-quality games when two companies compete against each other in the same sport. Not only is that not true, it is almost the exact opposite of the truth.

But the argument that competition creates better games does sound good on paper. Two companies, competing against each other for sales, will end up producing better products in order to vie for the consumers' almighty dollar. The sports-gaming marketplace is a crowded place after all, and there are only a limited amount of dollars to spend on games.

It sounds good. But so does the concept of saving a cow's life by eating a soybean burger. Then you take a bite.

If the theory that competition creates better games is true, we will see a few very important indicators in our study below. First, we will see meaningful increases in review scores for both games over time, because both companies are competing against each other to produce better products. Second, we will also see the overall quality of these particular games outranking the games without competition. If they don't, the theory simply does not hold weight.

The methods for this experiment are simple. We will take the average review scores from the Xbox 360 versions of each game (sans MLB: The Show, which we will use PS3) from Metacritic. I feel that this is probably the most unbiased and easy way to average the scores for each game. From there we will simply analyze the data and see what the numbers say to us.

So why don't we start with a sport where there is competition, basketball. People like to claim that the competition has made NBA Live rise up to try and compete with NBA 2K, which is in turn trying to fend off the competition. But in reality, the stats show a different story. Remember the conditions for the theory to be true as we look at these numbers from the last four years:

NBA Live - 64, 59, 73, 77
NBA 2K - 81, 84, 81, 84

Neither the first or the second conditions of the theory are true here. While NBA Live has risen in quality the last two years (an impressive +18 low-score to high-score difference), the series did falter during its second year. Beyond that, NBA 2K has meandered around in the same area the past four years. Competition hasn't created better games in basketball, yet.

Next up is hockey:

EA's NHL - 79, 85, 88
2K's NHL - 75, 78, 71, 69

Nope. The theory would hold weight with EA's NHL series, which has been rising in quality year over year -- it has a big jump from beginning to end (+9). However, NHL 2K not only declined in quality after the second year, it finished a full six points below its initial quality, and nine points below its peak score.

Will our trend be apparent in baseball?

MLB: The Show - 77, 85, 90
MLB 2K - 66, 79, 70, 64

It's not even close, and this one is uglier than the rest. Again, The Show does meet the qualifications, but MLB 2K not only fails, but it fails miserably. The game is a full 15 points below its peak score. If competition created better games, wouldn't both game show improvements?

And now for a sport that was full of competition, but then dropped to a single game, college basketball:

College Hoops 2K - 71, 80, 82
March Madness- 67, 69

These scores represent the time before 2K folded its college basketball franchise and March Madness was renamed NCAA Basketball. Keep in mind the license was bought by EA after 2K folded the franchise, so NCAA Basketball is a single player by default. Its latest outing had an overall score of 70 last year.

Before the competition faded away, college basketball did seem like it might meet both criteria. Nevertheless, the data is now inconclusive at best since the competition was cut short. The results are open for consideration, but keep in mind that the other 2K games all declined at some point, and the rate of ascension for College Hoops 2K slowed considerably after the first year.

At this point we leave the realm of hard numbers and start speculating as to whether college hoops would have continued to improve, which is not evidence enough.

Next up are the sports that lack competition. If the theory that competition creates better games is true, none of these games will see meaningful increases in game quality, nor will they see consistent year-over-year improvements since the developers are resting on their laurels, right?

First, Madden:

Madden - 74, 80, 85, 84, 88

Not only has Madden improved every year except for one, it has also registered the highest front-end to back-end improvement ratio (+14) out of all of the sports games on the list. But what about NCAA Football? It has caught a lot of flak for not improving as much over the years, so is the theory that competition creates better games true in this department?

NCAA Football - 79, 81, 83, 84

What? Not only has NCAA Football not recorded a decline in quality since arriving on current-generation consoles, it has also outperformed many other sports games that have competition.

Another game to consider is EA's Tiger Woods series. While it's not an outright no-competition game -- there are several golf spin-offs out there -- not many games try to emulate golf like the Tiger series. So let's just look at it:

Tiger Woods - 71, 80, 80, 84, 80

Tiger is what we would probably expect from a game that doesn't have competition. It stays relatively even through the years and kind of meanders around the 80-84 range for four years. But Tiger does have an impressive low score to high score difference of +13.

So it seems like review scores indicate that game quality does not increase year over year when there is competition. But they also indicate that overall game quality is not necessarily better in the sports with competition. Consider the fact that NCAA Football, Tiger Woods and Madden were similarly scored in reviews when compared to the yearly leader in basketball, hockey and baseball this last release season.

Another popular theory, at least in the pro-football camp, is that Madden is denying NFL 2K5 a chance to compete -- this part is true by default because of the exclusive NFL license -- and that 2K5 was a superior game. In addition, the other belief is that NFL 2K would have been a far-superior product to Madden today. But let's test that theory.

First, both Madden 2005 (91 rating) and NFL 2K5 (92 rating) were similarly scored. So in reality, we're arguing about personal preference when it comes to either game because the critical acclaim for the titles was similar.

Secondly, the only current-generation 2K football title that we have seen was only so-so -- All-Pro Football 2K8 received a 75 rating. While the game didn't have the budget an NFL title might have otherwise had, 2K basically stripped down NFL 2K5 and delivered it onto current-generation consoles. Basically, 2K did exactly what EA did with Madden 06, and 2K's title scored worse than every Madden title but Madden 06.

Thirdly, given the realities of the industry today, the assumption that NFL 2K would have continued to be a successful franchise is making a logical assumption that holds no weight. None of 2K's games have seen year-over-year increases in quality since the current-generation consoles launched. Only one title (NBA 2K) is getting better review scores today than it did when the first current-generation version was launched years ago.

Sure, NFL 2K10 might have been a great game, but the trends within 2K's company point towards steady quality at best, but declining quality on average.

But just to test this theory out with one more sport, let's look at the competition in the soccer realm.

PES - 80, 76, 74
FIFA - 80, 73, 82, 87

Not only is one game (PES) declining in quality year after year, but the other game (FIFA) witnessed a sharp decline before rising again. Neither one of the characteristics that we established to prove that competition creates quality is present.

So what have we learned here today? Well, if you believe in review scores -- the only measurable game-quality tool you can dig up to compare games -- we have learned that the competition-creates-better-games theory is simply not true.

If anything, competition might be a hindrance to overall game quality. Consider this stat again: When it comes to review scores, Madden owns the largest low-end to high-end quality jump (+14). When it comes to sports with competition, the biggest increase belongs to MLB: The Show (+13).

So the question then becomes what does impact game quality, assuming you now believe it's not competition? I personally believe that the amount of money available for development, the amount of time given to develop a game, and the actual talent making the game all play far bigger roles than competition.

The age-old myth that competition creates better games is not the reason why games ultimately succeed or fail. The stats show plain as day that competition is not the biggest factor when it comes to quality.

So it's time to stop letting myths rule our sports-gaming minds. It's time we decide there is a better way, a way paved with logic and sound reasoning.

And it's time we put the competition-creates-better-games theory to bed once and forever because the theory is baloney.


Member Comments
# 81 StormJH1 @ 09/01/09 11:29 AM
Fair. But I think we're really pushing up against the ceiling of how much more you can improve these games from a graphical standpoint, and the types of innovations that were needed to make a game "realistic" in the mid-90's made up a much larger laundry list than the things we complain about now. And given the cost of everything, I think this was the direction we were heading anyway.

Let's not forget that if not for Grand Theft Auto IV, 2k Games may very well have been BOUGHT by Electronic Arts, and this whole 2k vs. Madden debate would've become moot anyway. With the exception of SCEA's excellent baseball game (The Show), 2k is the only company even bothering to try and make games that compete with EA, and they're losing money on all of them.

Everything is bigger now. It's analagous to the movie industry--something like Star Wars could never happen now, becuase people would never tolerate an action film on a bare bones budget. Throw in a copy of some of these 1990's football games you're talking about, and you'll realize just how bad they are. So, it's tough to look back on those "glory days" and pretend like it's realistic for 2-5 different game developers to split up all their sales making NFL football games--it just can't happen anymore.

As long as we see improvements in Madden like we saw this year (FINALLY), I'm fine with EA having the only game in town, so long as they continue to improve their product and hire the creative minds that would've gone to make rival games at 2k and the like.
 
# 82 Rocky @ 09/01/09 12:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by StormJH1

Let's not forget that if not for Grand Theft Auto IV, 2k Games may very well have been BOUGHT by Electronic Arts, and this whole 2k vs. Madden debate would've become moot anyway. With the exception of SCEA's excellent baseball game (The Show), 2k is the only company even bothering to try and make games that compete with EA, and they're losing money on all of them.
And this is not because exclusive licensing? It is a commonly known fact that a solid pro football game can support an entire sports gaming division. That's why there were so many competitors in the market. Hell, we have companies still making unlicensed football games. That's how much pro football is valued in the sports gaming market. I find it hard....impossible to believe that companies would've just stopped making football games if the license was available.

Quote:
Everything is bigger now. It's analagous to the movie industry--something like Star Wars could never happen now, becuase people would never tolerate an action film on a bare bones budget. Throw in a copy of some of these 1990's football games you're talking about, and you'll realize just how bad they are. So, it's tough to look back on those "glory days" and pretend like it's realistic for 2-5 different game developers to split up all their sales making NFL football games--it just can't happen anymore.

As long as we see improvements in Madden like we saw this year (FINALLY), I'm fine with EA having the only game in town, so long as they continue to improve their product and hire the creative minds that would've gone to make rival games at 2k and the like.
This would be true if there weren't companies out there willing to develop a NFL game. Again, I just find that hard to believe. In 2002, NFL Fever pushed the graphical limits. We are seeing the same thing with The Show. You wouldn't think that these first party companies wouldn't develop a NFL game to show off there hardware?
 
# 83 StormJH1 @ 09/01/09 03:51 PM
Rocky, where is Microsoft's baseball game for 360, then? If every developer is just so eager to throw another sports title into the fire and get their clocks cleaned by an established competitor, then why don't they just do it?

You say that a "solid" pro football game can anchor an entire sports gaming division, but how many "solid" pro football games do you think there can be? Fever, Blitz, High Heat, Triple Play, 989 Sports...these weren't products and divisions that ceased to exist because of exclusive licensing...they either sucked or didn't sell. So, they were discontinued or re-branded.

Even NFL 2k5 didn't attempt to compete with Madden on equal footing. They released a $20 game 3 weeks in advance of Madden. If you read pretty much any review of 2k5 at that time, not only did they still score Madden higher, but they figured in the low cost into their score. Do you really think that charging $20 for your lead football title (which 1/5 as many people will buy as your competitor) is a sustainable business model for "anchoring a sports gaming department?" Hell no! It was a desparate move on their part to cut into EA's sales, it didn't work, and it prompted the nuclear option on the part of EA, which was to buy the exclusive license so they could keep selling their product at $49.99, just like practically every other major video game release at the time was.
 
# 84 StormJH1 @ 09/01/09 04:00 PM
jhawkmike, agreed with your analysis and your point (which I also made earlier), which is that Madden's biggest competitor is and has always been last year's version of Madden. In 2004, nobody really asked the question "Should I buy Madden or 2k?" because for an additional $19.99, you could have them both. Madden is an institution, not merely a video game that comes out once every August. You can't compare it to something like NBA 2k10 because that game actually has a chance of being outsold by a competitor. Madden never had that risk, not even when 2k5 was trying to undercut their sales.

And review scores will tell you nothing because sports reviewers treat every sports game like a "sequel". For example, the score for Gears of War 2 had much more to do with what that game offered over Gears of War 1, versus how something like Gears compared to other shooters or titles from other genres. Likewise, the "87" score for Madden 10 isn't some objective number you can use as a standard of quality for all times...but rather, it's basically saying that Madden 10 is 0.3 points better than Madden 09.
 
# 85 Matt23134 @ 09/01/09 04:43 PM
It's bologna. B-O-L-O-G-N-A. Bologna.
 
# 86 Rocky @ 09/01/09 06:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by StormJH1
Rocky, where is Microsoft's baseball game for 360, then? If every developer is just so eager to throw another sports title into the fire and get their clocks cleaned by an established competitor, then why don't they just do it?

You say that a "solid" pro football game can anchor an entire sports gaming division, but how many "solid" pro football games do you think there can be? Fever, Blitz, High Heat, Triple Play, 989 Sports...these weren't products and divisions that ceased to exist because of exclusive licensing...they either sucked or didn't sell. So, they were discontinued or re-branded.

Even NFL 2k5 didn't attempt to compete with Madden on equal footing. They released a $20 game 3 weeks in advance of Madden. If you read pretty much any review of 2k5 at that time, not only did they still score Madden higher, but they figured in the low cost into their score. Do you really think that charging $20 for your lead football title (which 1/5 as many people will buy as your competitor) is a sustainable business model for "anchoring a sports gaming department?" Hell no! It was a desparate move on their part to cut into EA's sales, it didn't work, and it prompted the nuclear option on the part of EA, which was to buy the exclusive license so they could keep selling their product at $49.99, just like practically every other major video game release at the time was.

I'm pretty sure ALL those games cease to exist because of licensing. You could've used some better examples.

And clearly 2K's strategy with NFL2K5 worked. They outsold Madden on the XBOX and severely cut into their market...which could've paid huge dividends with the jump to next gen consoles looming.
 
# 87 ehh @ 09/02/09 03:56 PM
College Hoops is the saddest example. Absolutely no competition (EA's college basketball games were unplayable garbage until '09) yet they created the best sports game to date on next-gen platforms and still the series was killed off.
 
# 88 yanpeijian @ 09/05/09 04:31 AM
good title and good article!
but sometimes competition can make games better,because the players will compete with each other fiercely!
 


Post A Comment
Only OS members can post comments
Please login or register to post a comment.