Madden NFL 11 News Post

Madden Sales Down 18% Y-o-Y in October

05:01 PM - November 17, 2010 by RaychelSnr

One more nugget from the Cowen and Company piece is that Madden sales are in fact down 18% year over year for the month of October:

Quote:


	"Even with disappointments for NHL 11 and Medal of Honor, EA's software sales grew 17 percent year over year in October. EA Sports MMA sold 45,000 units, and the Madden NFL franchise is down 18 percent year over year."

If you recall, I predicted in a blog post back in late August ('Are Madden Sales Slipping?') that Madden sales would probably end up down even after initial reports showed the game's sales were up 12% back in August. But an 18% drop was far more than I ever expected, that's nearly a 1/5 cut in top-line revenue from one of EA's biggest franchises on a Y-o-Y basis. If the trend continues, Madden sales could end up down substantially with the all-important Winter Shopping Season approaching.

That's incredibly bad news.

There is a lot of speculation as to why sales have slowed so much so fast, but I believe the reasons are the same now as I initially thought back then: consumers aren't impressed with the direction of the Madden series with so many other options for them to partake in. The longevity of the game is definitely in question and the word of mouth factor seems to be non-existent this year.

This is easily a referendum on the direction of the direction of the series, especially if trends continue to hold through December. I initially thought there wouldn't be much panic from the suits at EA, but this was before the Elite Fiasco hit the world, so now you can never be too careful when trying to prognosticate what EA might do next.

No doubt the decision makers at EA know exactly about the slip in sales of the Madden franchise, which are slowing substantially moreso than previous years after being on store shelves. So whatever panic decisions/reshuffling you would expect have probably already been made in some regards, although some may not be made until the Christmas shopping season is over. There is definitely increasing pressure on the Madden team to perform, and if sales do come in flat to somewhat down there could be some changes to the gameplan going forward.

This is definitely not good news for gamers who have liked the direction of Madden for the past couple of years if this trend holds into the Christmas shopping season. Also just as alarming is Madden's shrinking sales to the hardcore gamers on the top platforms, with sales down between 30% and 40% depending on how you calculate game sales and from whom from it's high in the middle of the last decade.

This is an interesting story we'll continue to follow. In the meantime, do you think we'll see some big changes in the direction for Madden NFL 12?

[ Update ] It's not clear whether Cowen and Company's analyst was commenting on the entire sales volume from Aug-Oct or just in the Month of October. Either way, that would only slightly give the news a bit less negativity for EA -- but it'd still be very negative news. We'll keep on this story.

[ Update #2 ] After analyzing the data and receiving word from a few trusted analysts this is definitely a Monthly drop from last October of 18%. This means after Madden sales started out on a rush, they have plummeted as the product has stayed on store shelves. The real test will be the Christmas shopping season. Roughly 30% of Madden's sales come from Christmas-time sales. If sales are still down substantially in November and then December, things could get ugly for EA. As it is right now though, this is a sharp drop worth watching. Edited the original article to reflect these clarifications.

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# 221 King_B_Mack @ 12/06/10 03:26 PM

What's being lost in this whole argument is the fact that we have seen Madden WITH competition and the series was at it's best, now without it's at it's worst. Now does that mean that competition is going to automatically make the game better? Not immediately, but it will. Whether anyone likes to believe it or not, EA Sports is a company full of talent and the developers of the Madden games are good at they're jobs, you don't get where they are without being that. That said it's not like they're incapable of making a good game because we've seen it done before.

It's as close to a guarantee as you can get that Madden would improve with competition because Madden is and always will be EA's cash cow and biggest property. All the resources will always go to that series first over any other and if Madden is truly in danger of falling out of the top football game spot EA will do what it takes to keep it on top. If Madden was always the only game in town then arguing that competition wouldn't make it better would make sense because we have no history to draw from for that genre, however we've seen Madden when it's got other NFL games breathing down it's neck and we got the best of the series during that time. Using the NBA doesn't count for anything because Live has never been EA's baby, it's never been THE game at the company, Madden, NHL, MVP and Fifa have always been EA's priority. Live suffered as long as it did because EA didn't give a crap about the franchise as long as Madden, NHL, etc. flourished.

Bottomline it's not a slam dunk that competition will make the game better, however anyone saying that it will has more ground to stand on than anyone trying to argue otherwise cause two of the best NFL football games of all time are generally considered to be NFL 2K5 and Madden 2005.

# 222 Only1LT @ 12/06/10 06:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by King_B_Mack


	What's being lost in this whole argument is the fact that we have seen Madden WITH competition and the series was at it's best, now without it's at it's worst. Now does that mean that competition is going to automatically make the game better? Not immediately, but it will. Whether anyone likes to believe it or not, EA Sports is a company full of talent and the developers of the Madden games are good at they're jobs, you don't get where they are without being that. That said it's not like they're incapable of making a good game because we've seen it done before. It's as close to a guarantee as you can get that Madden would improve with competition because Madden is and always will be EA's cash cow and biggest property. All the resources will always go to that series first over any other and if Madden is truly in danger of falling out of the top football game spot EA will do what it takes to keep it on top. If Madden was always the only game in town then arguing that competition wouldn't make it better would make sense because we have no history to draw from for that genre, however we've seen Madden when it's got other NFL games breathing down it's neck and we got the best of the series during that time. Using the NBA doesn't count for anything because Live has never been EA's baby, it's never been THE game at the company, Madden, NHL, MVP and Fifa have always been EA's priority. Live suffered as long as it did because EA didn't give a crap about the franchise as long as Madden, NHL, etc. flourished. Bottomline it's not a slam dunk that competition will make the game better, however anyone saying that it will has more ground to stand on than anyone trying to argue otherwise cause two of the best NFL football games of all time are generally considered to be NFL 2K5 and Madden 2005.

This is a classic cause of fallacy of causation. In other words, "There were better versions of Madden when Madden had competition, therefore it was obviously competition that made those games better, and if competition comes back, it WILL be better again guaranteed." Umm... no lol.

Competition guarantees, or "close to guarantees" as you put it, nothing. Competition guarantees nothing but choice. If competition guaranteed great products, then we'd just have great products everywhere there is competition. The fact that we don't, proves that it guarantees nothing.

You can give as many examples of competition "making" an EA sports title great as you want. I need only provide ONE example where competition did not result in a great game to prove my point. If you say that mating 2 black rabbits always results in a black rabbit offspring, I only need to show ONE example where this does not happen. You can show a 100 trillion examples where this does, but the ONE that I show is enough to prove that that assertion is untrue. This is the same situation.

EA has made many sports games, with comp, that were not perceived at large to be good titles, so to say that comp guarantees or even "close to guarantees" a great Madden, is just false.

And the last time I checked, Basketball was more popular than Hockey in this country. So why you think that EA doesn't care about Basketball but really, really cares about Hockey, I don't understand. It is just you trying to rationalize away an example of EA putting out a bad product, WITH comp, and saying, yeah that don't count cause they don't care about B-ball lol.

If people want to believe that comp would light a fire under EA/Tiburon and that they would put forth more effort, then I could some what understand that argument. I may not necessarily agree with it, but I would understand. But said effort, does not HAVE to produce great results. There are many games that are just plain bad, and it isn't for lack of effort.

Some people think that it will "force" EA/Tiburon to make a better game. Someone could hold a gun to your head and tell you make me a great Football game or else. Unfortunately for you in that scenario, it doesn't mean that you will.

Competition guarantees nothing but choice.

# 223 kjcheezhead @ 12/06/10 06:41 PM

Competition would make a better Madden game simply by offering that choice. If 2k made a godawful game, Madden instant becomes a better game to the consumer without changing a thing because people will choose it over a bad 2k game. If 2k makes a great alternative, EA would be forced to make madden a much better game or go the way of NBA elite.

Either scenario produces a better football game for the gamers, at least in thier mind's eye.

# 224 Only1LT @ 12/06/10 06:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kjcheezhead


	Competition would make a better Madden game simply by offering that choice. If 2k made a godawful game, Madden instant becomes a better game to the consumer without changing a thing because people will choose it over a bad 2k game. If 2k makes a great alternative, EA would be forced to make madden a much better game or go the way of NBA elite. Either scenario produces a better football game for the gamers, at least in thier mind's eye.

There go those terms, like "forced" again. You can't force EA/Tiburon to do anything. If they can make a great game, they can. If they can't, they can't. Nothing that the competition does will change that fact. Not by threatening to take away sales. Not even by threatening their physical person.

Your last sentence makes me think that you weren't totally serious with this post, but I'm not sure. In any even, comp will never "force" EA/Tiburon to make a better game.

You can't get blood from a turnip.

# 225 kjcheezhead @ 12/07/10 12:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Only1LT


	There go those terms, like "forced" again. You can't force EA/Tiburon to do anything. If they can make a great game, they can. If they can't, they can't. Nothing that the competition does will change that fact. Not by threatening to take away sales. Not even by threatening their physical person. Your last sentence makes me think that you weren't totally serious with this post, but I'm not sure. In any even, comp will never "force" EA/Tiburon to make a better game. You can't get blood from a turnip.

It's like this, if I make my living selling coffee and someone opens a shop next door which offers better tasting coffee at a lower price, I have to adjust what I'm doing. I have to change my coffee, my price, offer free donuts, put my baristas in bikinis...something in order to stay in business. I'm "forced" to improve or go out of business.

If someone opens a coffee shop next door with higher prices, crappy coffee and terrible service...then my coffee shop suddenly seems a whole lot better to the customers. They stop complaining about the things I do wrong because my shop is better than my competitions.

Either way, the customers are happier than they were when my shop was the only choice. My last sentence was talking about this phenomena.

# 226 Senator Palmer @ 12/07/10 01:27 PM

I just had to thrown this in. I am absolutely in love with your sig, tlc12576!

This is why I can't accept the excuses, because I know what Madden could be.

"So many developers out there tend to ignore their franchise modes for years on end. At 2K, we realize this is where you spend the majority of your time, so we are constantly working to improve the experience year-over-year."
Erick Boenisch
- a.k.a. SimBaller

# 227 ryan36 @ 12/07/10 01:46 PM

Competition would make EA make a better game. The things that are broken, would be slightly more fixed. I think we're talking the difference between a B- and B+ game.

Yes, if the dev team is already idiots and incapable of making a good game, then they would not be better even with competition. I do not believe this to be the case. I believe this dev team with what they want to do are slogging through sewage trying to pan for gold. They can get it done, but not with the antiquated code from prior lame builds.

I believe competition would cause more resources to be funneled into Madden's hands, and the whole "we don't have time" thing would be blown out the window. Maybe even a new build. Who knows?

# 228 Only1LT @ 12/07/10 01:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kjcheezhead


	It's like this, if I make my living selling coffee and someone opens a shop next door which offers better tasting coffee at a lower price, I have to adjust what I'm doing. I have to change my coffee, my price, offer free donuts, put my baristas in bikinis...something in order to stay in business. I'm "forced" to improve or go out of business. If someone opens a coffee shop next door with higher prices, crappy coffee and terrible service...then my coffee shop suddenly seems a whole lot better to the customers. They stop complaining about the things I do wrong because my shop is better than my competitions. Either way, the customers are happier than they were when my shop was the only choice. My last sentence was talking about this phenomena.

I totally understand the analogy, but it isn't totally relevant.

There are many things that said coffee shop could do to stay in business. They could lower prices, as you said. Advertise. They could even change their business model to do more than offer coffee. None of that is relevant to Tiburon making a better game.

The coffee shop could get better beans, IF they have access to them and can afford them. They could use different ingredients, IF they have access to them and can afford them. In essence, if they are able to make the coffee taste better, then they could. I say could, but they don't have to and they aren't forced to. If they can't make it taste better, then they can't and they will either use some other means to try and stay in business, like cut prices, or they go out of business. That is a choice too isn't it?

No one can force Tiburon to make a better game, but Tiburon, and unlike the coffee shop, they don't have the luxury of cutting prices or doing certain other things the coffee shop can. But that concerns the staying in business and generating more sales revenue aspect. That has nothing to do with making a better game.

If they are capable of making a better game, then maybe someday they will. If they aren't then they never will. What competition does will NEVER change that variable. Comp might put them out of business, but it will never make them do something that they are not CAPABLE of doing.

Does that make any sense to anyone, or am I in the Twilight Zone lol?

# 229 Only1LT @ 12/07/10 01:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ryan36


	Competition would make EA make a better game. The things that are broken, would be slightly more fixed. I think we're talking the difference between a B- and B+ game. Yes, if the dev team is already idiots and incapable of making a good game, then they would not be better even with competition. I do not believe this to be the case. I believe this dev team with what they want to do are slogging through sewage trying to pan for gold. They can get it done, but not with the antiquated code from prior lame builds. I believe competition would cause more resources to be funneled into Madden's hands, and the whole "we don't have time" thing would be blown out the window. Maybe even a new build. Who knows?

I must be in the Twilight Zone lol.

Whether you believe that they are capable or not of making a better game, is just that. A belief. You are stating something as a given, based off of a supposition.

There are no guarantees that Madden gets better just because of comp. There is also nothing to preclude them from making a better game with no comp. If they can, someday they may. If they can't, then they never will.

Not any more complicated than that.

# 230 Only1LT @ 12/07/10 02:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lofeazy


	This is so true.(Just because you can program a computer dosen't make you a video game programer.) If madden team knew how to they would have made a better game then 2k5 by now.

You're bringing up an argument that I'm not making. While I have gone on record as saying that I don't think that Tiburon is capable of making a game that I consider stellar, that has nothing to do with what I am saying.

I am not saying that if they could have made a good game they would have by now. Again, I accept the possibility that they haven't been doing all they can to make the game stellar to this point, because they don't really have to to get great sales numbers. They may be less than what they were, and the exclusive deal may cut into the profit margins more than previously, but make no mistake, selling 4mil plus copies of a game is still a great number. At least on the surface. So I will agree that it is possible that if there is comp, that EA/Tiburon might "try harder". But what I am saying is that "trying harder" will not NECESSARILY result in a better game. It might. It might not.

"Trying harder" could result in them making improvements or even changes for the better. But "trying harder" could also result in them trying to make improvements, and making things worse in other areas, or making changes for the worse. This is what people aren't getting. This is why comp doesn't "guarantee" a better game, because increased effort and increased resources does not ALWAYS translate into something positive.

It is entirely possible to make a bad game while increasing resources or "trying harder." Because of this, even if comp puts a metaphorical boot to EA/Tiburon's ***, you are not any more assured of getting a great game than if they were doing the minimum.

If you put a gun to my head and "force" me to recite the Gettysburg Address, word for word, I will do it, if I know it (provided I don't forget it from being literally under the gun lol). If I don't, I won't. The gun being aimed at my head or not, isn't going to make me magically know the Address, if I don't already.

# 231 kjcheezhead @ 12/07/10 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Only1LT


	I must be in the Twilight Zone lol. Whether you believe that they are capable or not of making a better game, is just that. A belief. You are stating something as a given, based off of a supposition. There are no guarantees that Madden gets better just because of comp. There is also nothing to preclude them from making a better game with no comp. If they can, someday they may. If they can't, then they never will. Not any more complicated than that.

You're missing my point. Tiburon doesn't have to change a thing. It doesn't matter how capable they are. If someone else makes an NFL game, either it's better than madden or it isn't. If it isn't, Madden is suddenly looks a lot more appealing than it has been to its customers because they see what the competition offers. Madden just got better without changing a thing, simply because customers see even worse alternatives.

Without competition, consumers will never be satisfied with what Madden offers because they will always believe the game could be better than what they are getting. Whether or not that really is the case.

# 232 Only1LT @ 12/07/10 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kjcheezhead


	You're missing my point. Tiburon doesn't have to change a thing. It doesn't matter how capable they are. If someone else makes an NFL game, either it's better than madden or it isn't. If it isn't, Madden is suddenly looks a lot more appealing than it has been to its customers because they see what the competition offers. Madden just got better without changing a thing, simply because customers see even worse alternatives. Without competition, consumers will never be satisfied with what Madden offers because they will always believe the game could be better than what they are getting. Whether or not that really is the case.

I understand this part of it, and I might even be inclined to agree with this part, but this isn't all that you said.

You also said that competition would "force" EA to make a better game. Or to quote more accurately, "EA would be forced to make a much better game or go the way of NBA Elite." That is the part of your post that I am addressing.

I'm not missing your point at all. You just made more than one. I get both of them. One I agree with on some level, and one I don't agree with on any level.

# 233 roadman @ 12/07/10 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Only1LT


	You're bringing up an argument that I'm not making. While I have gone on record as saying that I don't think that Tiburon is capable of making a game that I consider stellar, that has nothing to do with what I am saying. I am not saying that if they could have made a good game they would have by now. Again, I accept the possibility that they haven't been doing all they can to make the game stellar to this point, because they don't don't really have to to get great sales numbers. They may be less than what they were, and the exclusive deal may cut into the profit margins more than previously, but make no mistake, selling 4mil plus copies of a game is still a great number. At least on the surface. So I will agree that it is possible that if there is comp, that EA/Tiburon might "try harder". But what I am saying is that "trying harder" will not NECESSARILY result in a better game. It might. It might not. "Trying harder" could result in them making improvements or even changes for the better. But "trying harder" could also result in them trying to make improvements, and making things worse in other areas, or making changes for the worse. This is what people aren't getting. This is why comp doesn't "guarantee" a better game, because increased effort and increased resources does not ALWAYS translate into something positive. It is entirely possible to make a bad game while increasing resources or "trying harder." Because of this, even if comp puts a metaphorical boot to EA/Tiburon's ***, you are not any more assured of getting a great game than if they were doing the minimum. If you put a gun to my head and "force" me to recite the Gettysburg Address, word for word, I will do it, if I know it (provided I don't forget it from being literally under the gun lol). If I don't, I won't. The gun being aimed at my head or not, isn't going to make me magically know the Address, if I don't already.

I'll go back to last week, deju vu?

Now, back to the real stuff.

I want to ask LT and TLC a question.

With competition, can we all agree that the process to become a better product is enhanced without knowing the outcome? That's not guaranteeing anything about being a better product. We don't know that until the final results are in.

Let's put my profession out there. If I'm a headhunter in a 6 person office, and there is a contest for a trip to Hawaii for the most placed people for the month of December. I'm in second place with one week to go. I have less calls, less contacts and one less placed person than the #1 person. If I want to win this trip, I need to make more calls and more contacts and place at least one more person. I need to get in the office earlier and stay later for this to occur. I enhance my workload by arriving early and staying late to have a chance of beating out the #1 person. I don't know if I will win the contest, but I'm giving it everything I have.

# 234 Only1LT @ 12/07/10 03:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roadman


	I'll go back to last week, deju vu? Now, back to the real stuff. I want to ask LT and TLC a question. With competition, can we all agree that the process to become a better product is enhanced without knowing the outcome? That's not guaranteeing anything about being a better product. We don't know that until the final results are in. Let's put my profession out there. If I'm a headhunter in a 6 person office, and there is a contest for a trip to Hawaii for the most placed people for the month of December. I'm in second place with one week to go. I have less calls, less contacts and one less placed person than the #1 person. If I want to win this trip, I need to make more calls and more contacts and place at least one more person. I need to get in the office earlier and stay later for this to occur. I enhance my workload by arriving early and staying late to have a chance of beating out the #1 person. I don't know if I will win the contest, but I'm giving it everything I have.

I can't agree with the first bolded part, because I'm not a mind reader. You would either be asking me to read the devs and the suits minds and know that they are thinking, "I'm not putting any effort into this game because there is no comp and I don't have to." Either that or you would be asking me to guess whether the games current state is because of lack of motivation, or lack of talent. I don't know how I could do that, and I don't know how anyone else can either. And if I did, I would just be perpetrating the same fallacy of causation as many of the posters are.

I do know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that there are games, that I would consider to be terrible, that are produced, all while having competition, so there is no other logical thought process to make, other than that competition does not guarantee that Madden will all of sudden be great, just because it has comp.

As for the last bolded part of your post, you are making my point for me. You could make 10 times the phone calls as the person in front. You could stay late every night while he or she leaves at 2:00pm, and you still are not guaranteed to win the contest, even if you had been trying from the very beginning. In essence, the contest didn't do anything but make you motivated to work harder. It didn't guarantee you a positive result, ie actually winning the contest, in the slightest. Maybe comp will make EA/Tiburon "give it all they have", but if all they have ain't good enough, then what? You can guess that they do have what it takes, but that's just a guess.

I'm sorry you're feeling deja vu, but I have said that I would drop it with you lol.

# 235 ryan36 @ 12/07/10 05:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Only1LT


	If you put a gun to my head and "force" me to recite the Gettysburg Address, word for word, I will do it, if I know it (provided I don't forget it from being literally under the gun lol). If I don't, I won't. The gun being aimed at my head or not, isn't going to make me magically know the Address, if I don't already.

Pics or it didn't happen

# 236 Only1LT @ 12/07/10 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ryan36


	Pics or it didn't happen

Lol, sorry, but after I recited the Address, he stole my iPhone. He had a gun you know lol?

# 237 Rashad19 @ 12/07/10 05:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tlc12576


	No. That is speculative, like LT was saying. Nobody knows what effect competition might have on the process for making Madden. It could somehow cause EA to decide to stop making the game all together and that wouldn't be enhancing it. What we all should agree on is that competition = choice, not improvement. Improvement is a possiblity with competition or without competition but so is regression, cancellation, innovation or stagnation, for the MaddenNation! (Sorry, I had a Jesse Jackson moment, LOL).

TLC...your post literally had me cracking up at my desk! That Jesse Jackson moment was classic.

# 238 KensaiKatai @ 12/07/10 06:35 PM

Bottom line is, if what happened to Elite was largely in part due to what NBA2k11 brought to the table..it's only a given what would happen if Madden was faced with the same predicament in having stiffer competition nicking at it's heels. They would be forced to go back to the drawing board. This isn't the case right now and it won't be as long as there is an exclusive license. What is going on with 2k and it's baseball franchise is also indicative of this and that is because of what the Show brings to the table. You give the consumer choices...well, competition breeds excellence.

The disparity and what we expect as consumers right now has very little bearing because there is all types of wiggle room for Madden as long as there is no competition. I enjoy this years product but in many ways it feels broad and manipulative in it's approach. There as a lot of fundamental weaknesses in basic presentation aspects as well as sim offerings that we've come to expect from other titles such as the show and 2k. In some regards, I don't think it's arrogance as much as ignorance as far as programming, maybe a little bit of both. If this continues to be the case then sales will continue to suffer and it won't bode well for us that are trying to maintain an objective approach as to what we expect in a football video game.

# 239 roadman @ 12/07/10 08:43 PM

I'm sticking with the way I felt for most of my life. I'm also basing this on personal and business experiences.

I still feel, generally speaking, that competition is a good thing to make a product better. I'm not saying it's a guarantee or a given, but overall, competition, in most cases, can't hurt.

# 240 kjcheezhead @ 12/07/10 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by roadman


	I'm sticking with the way I felt for most of my life. I'm also basing this on personal and business experiences. I still feel, generally speaking, that competition is a good thing to make a product better. I'm not saying it's a guarantee or a given, but overall, competition, in most cases, can't hurt.

This is how I see it as well. Basically one of the companies usually steps it up and provides a better service/product. In the rare cases that doesn't happen, consumers lower their standards a bit and find what they get more enjoyable simply because they still can choose the product that is closest to what they are looking to buy.

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