Madden NFL 11 News Post

Madden Sales Down 18% Y-o-Y in October

04:01 PM - November 17, 2010 by RaychelSnr

One more nugget from the Cowen and Company piece is that Madden sales are in fact down 18% year over year for the month of October:

Quote:


	"Even with disappointments for NHL 11 and Medal of Honor, EA's software sales grew 17 percent year over year in October. EA Sports MMA sold 45,000 units, and the Madden NFL franchise is down 18 percent year over year."

If you recall, I predicted in a blog post back in late August ('Are Madden Sales Slipping?') that Madden sales would probably end up down even after initial reports showed the game's sales were up 12% back in August. But an 18% drop was far more than I ever expected, that's nearly a 1/5 cut in top-line revenue from one of EA's biggest franchises on a Y-o-Y basis. If the trend continues, Madden sales could end up down substantially with the all-important Winter Shopping Season approaching.

That's incredibly bad news.

There is a lot of speculation as to why sales have slowed so much so fast, but I believe the reasons are the same now as I initially thought back then: consumers aren't impressed with the direction of the Madden series with so many other options for them to partake in. The longevity of the game is definitely in question and the word of mouth factor seems to be non-existent this year.

This is easily a referendum on the direction of the direction of the series, especially if trends continue to hold through December. I initially thought there wouldn't be much panic from the suits at EA, but this was before the Elite Fiasco hit the world, so now you can never be too careful when trying to prognosticate what EA might do next.

No doubt the decision makers at EA know exactly about the slip in sales of the Madden franchise, which are slowing substantially moreso than previous years after being on store shelves. So whatever panic decisions/reshuffling you would expect have probably already been made in some regards, although some may not be made until the Christmas shopping season is over. There is definitely increasing pressure on the Madden team to perform, and if sales do come in flat to somewhat down there could be some changes to the gameplan going forward.

This is definitely not good news for gamers who have liked the direction of Madden for the past couple of years if this trend holds into the Christmas shopping season. Also just as alarming is Madden's shrinking sales to the hardcore gamers on the top platforms, with sales down between 30% and 40% depending on how you calculate game sales and from whom from it's high in the middle of the last decade.

This is an interesting story we'll continue to follow. In the meantime, do you think we'll see some big changes in the direction for Madden NFL 12?

[ Update ] It's not clear whether Cowen and Company's analyst was commenting on the entire sales volume from Aug-Oct or just in the Month of October. Either way, that would only slightly give the news a bit less negativity for EA -- but it'd still be very negative news. We'll keep on this story.

[ Update #2 ] After analyzing the data and receiving word from a few trusted analysts this is definitely a Monthly drop from last October of 18%. This means after Madden sales started out on a rush, they have plummeted as the product has stayed on store shelves. The real test will be the Christmas shopping season. Roughly 30% of Madden's sales come from Christmas-time sales. If sales are still down substantially in November and then December, things could get ugly for EA. As it is right now though, this is a sharp drop worth watching. Edited the original article to reflect these clarifications.

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Member Comments

# 121 SynShadowzz @ 11/18/10 12:25 PM

Just wanted to chuck in the old .2 cents.

I have played Madden in 2 years. My reasons are simple:

A.) I was annoyed with buying the same game year after year after year without any sort of decent upgrade.

B.) I enjoy the NCAA franchise way more now.

C.) It became way too "arcade-y"

D.) NCAA Dynasty = 100x more fun than a Madden Franchise.

# 122 Rashad19 @ 11/18/10 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Legend Killer


	I think one of the down falls of the Marketing Department is they seem to make the madden team add stuff into the game they think fans would love to have. But they failed at that. Another example of how the Marketing has failed EA in the last few years on madden is Josh Looman. When they brought Josh Looman in the Madden Department. Josh main focus was at first was going to be the franchise mode. But that quickly failed when they changed Josh job from working completely on franchise mode to working on this MUT stuff. I understand some people enjoy MUT and all. But that is not what Josh was brought in for. Josh was one of the leading guys who worked on HC 09 and made it's franchise mode on HC 09 a big success. That is why he was brought in. To work on Madden franchise mode. But yet the Marketing Department change that around quickly and made him work on something like MUT that is completely worthless in my eyes. I felt we as fans was lied to by EA on the reason Josh was brought into madden in the first place. His job was to work on Franchise mode and to make it much better. Now 2 years later and franchise mode is still the same. I really hope that madden crew does something big franchise mode this year. Atleast that would be a good step in the right direction for the madden serias for 2011 coming up.

I have wondered about this same thing myself. I thought Josh's primary focus of joining the team was too revamp the franchise mode similar that of Head Coach. How he ended up in charge of MUT is beyond me. Classic case of management not utilizing talent properly. I have no idea what this team's vision is right now.

# 123 BezO @ 11/18/10 02:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dcsoldier


	i doubt that casual fans make up majority of madden fanbase.......casual fans don't comeback every year to buy the same game over and over again. 2k proved this with this year's game......go after the core of the fanbase and not the outer layers of fans that don't commit to buying the title each year. the truth is that only a hardcore fan will comeback and buy a sports title each time it comes out.

Agreed. By definition, a casual fan is not that serious about the game. But I think casual has come to equal arcade, pick-up-and-play-type gamer.

# 124 shavane @ 11/18/10 02:37 PM

The sales are down because even though it is much improved its still basically the same game as the last 5-7 years. There hasn't really been any groundbreaking changes to the graphics, gameplay, momentum, or anything so its basically a roster update every year. They need to use a new true next gen engine that showcases true speed, weight, and momentum. I give a game like backbreaker credit because even though their game was downright horrible the interactions on the field are alot closer to where next gen gaming should be.

If NBA2k11 is any indication of the direction sports games should go imagine what 2k11 would look like today. Madden needs to stop being so complacent and move outside its comfort zone. I play Madden everyday but I'm always feeling that the game could be so much better by now. I truly hope that the NFL liscense is open to all developers in 2013 so that we have more options to choose from and at the same time push everyone to make better football games.

# 125 rooney8 @ 11/18/10 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MMSChris


	After analyzing the data and receiving word from a few trusted analysts this is definitely a Monthly drop from last October of 18%. This means after Madden sales started out on a rush, they have plummeted as the product has stayed on store shelves. The real test will be the Christmas shopping season. Roughly 30% of Madden's sales come from Christmas-time sales. If sales are still down substantially in November and then December, things could get ugly for EA. As it is right now though, this is a sharp drop worth watching. Edited the original article to reflect these clarifications.

These figures are mostly affected by Madden10's strange sales. Sales this year were up August and September but that's against some very bad Madden10 sales. Now it's being compared to Madden10 sales that were unusually strong for the Christmas months.
Whether it finishes slightly up or slightly down they are terrible sales. Without Elite NBA 2K11 sold 1.15 million units in October, 60 percent more than last October's combined sales for NBA 2K10 and NBA Live 10." So they took Elites sales and increased their own also. This is what Madden probably had in mind when they signed the exclusive deal. In 2004 over 9m copies of Madden05 and Nfl25k were sold on just Ps2 and Xbox. Then EA made a huge investment to get the exclusive deal but instead of increased sales they have actually decreased which is an incrediblle feat. I guarentee EA would have been projecting 13m+ sales of Madden in 2010 back when they signed the exclusive deal.
As for people hoping they will now start listening to fans on places such as OS I don't think so. I have heard them say that hardcore gamers make up around 10% of gamers and we are just more vocal than any other group. Unless that view changes they will continue to cater to what they think is the bigger market. Here's what EA CEO said about Medal of Honor getting a fairly average Metacritic score:

Quote:

Originally Posted by John Riccitiello


	"First off, the game is rated mid-70s, almost 20 ratings rated 90 or above," Riccitiello said. "So as an observation, mid-70s is generally perceived to be pretty good. I think, ultimately, what happened there and pretty much as we'd expected, the game appeals really well to a mass market, your average gamer." "There is a small minority of folks, sometimes well represented by core gamer reviewers or game magazine reviewers, where best I can tell there's been 80 or 90 hours a week playing first-person shooters," he continued. "They are very core to that segment, and some of them didn't like the title. I don't know who spends 80 or 90 hours a week playing a first-person shooter, but if they do, they probably have very very very specific tastes.

Medal of Honor has a metacritc score of 75 and sold just over 1m in October. Call of Duty Black Ops has a metacritic score of 88 and sold around 5.6m copies in North America and the United Kingdom on release day.
If EA don't realise the masses, hardcore gamers and critics all want close to the same thing they will continue to get steam rolled by companies who do.

# 126 tribefanisu2003 @ 11/18/10 03:23 PM

I agree with those who are praising NBA 2K11. You can tell in that product just how much effort and focus went into the details of that game, and because of all that, it has quickly become my second favorite sports title ever, behind only MLB 09: The Show (I haven't played '10, so I don't know if it's better than '09 drastically or not). While playing it, there have been so many more instances of me saying "woah, that's a very nice touch" than me saying "wait, why did that guy move so awkwardly".

2K11 and the Show series are just so much more complete games than Madden has been in years. Not to say Madden is an awful game - it's not. It's just not anywhere close to up to par when compared with these other games. I'm really not into the NBA at all anymore, but I just love 2K11. That's being said even though I've only played 4 games of association: the rest of the time has been spent in the Jordan Challenge and the early stages of My Player. Association / Franchise is always my favorite mode in a sports game, so I really can't wait to dive into that. Point is, even with having hardly touched that mode, there's no question in my mind that it's been the best $60 I've spent on a sports title in quite some time.

I agree with those that are hoping EA interprets this correctly (losing their core audience), but have little faith that will be the case. They haven't exactly had a shining record of management lately.

# 127 JayD @ 11/18/10 03:35 PM

If you import the same exact crappy franchise mode from the previous year with little to no changes it will hurt the lasting appeal of Madden which in return will hurt sales down the line. Crate a deep franchise mode and maybe you'll have consumers buying the game after a few months of it's release and the consumers who already had the game would hold on to it longer rather than trading it in for a different game.

# 128 bxgoods @ 11/18/10 04:18 PM

Its really hard to put the numbers into context until you look at the sales of other sports games. Since video game sales as a whole are down I don't really know how to judge this. If Madden is outsold by NBA 2k or the Show that would say more to me. But there aren't many games flying off the shelf nowadays.
I just looked at NBA 2k sale numbers and they aren't a lot, especially compared to what Madden has sold in its first month.

# 129 Complex @ 11/18/10 07:16 PM

I passed on Madden this year.

# 130 Primerica @ 11/18/10 09:02 PM

EA just hasn't made a great Madden since 2005. If they were doing like NBA 2k11 making a great game that no one can seriously deny, they would still sale. Think about it. If your the Atlanta Hawks, it's a lot harder to convince your base to buy tickets because your product is expensive, not a need, and just isn't a good product. Flawed in too many key areas. Now if your the Lakers with a superstar like Kobe. You win a lot of awards and your game is really good, you will have people want to pay extra to purchase your product. Great product= sales, solid product= expendable, poor product= a joke.

# 131 ShaneFu @ 11/18/10 10:38 PM

Let's not forget that The Show and NBA 2k kept their same gameplay engines from last gen while Madden tried to recreate the wheel, and overhaul their game with a new engine with disasterous results.

Next year's sales may plunge even further due to the lockout. Personally, if there is no NFL next August, I will not be buying ANYTHING with a NFL shield on it (jersies, hats, or ps3 games).

# 132 Knight165 @ 11/18/10 11:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ShaneFu


	Let's not forget that The Show and NBA 2k kept their same gameplay engines from last gen while Madden tried to recreate the wheel, and overhaul their game with a new engine with disasterous results. Next year's sales may plunge even further due to the lockout. Personally, if there is no NFL next August, I will not be buying ANYTHING with a NFL shield on it (jersies, hats, or ps3 games).

Shane...SCEA built MLB from scratch for the PS3.(whatever year that was...'06 maybe?)...not ported from the PS2 model.
The engine was actually overhauled too(from '05 I believe in thought of the PS3 being released for sale)
They actually build all those games separately (PS3/PS2/PSP).

M.K.
Knight165

# 133 acreyman @ 11/18/10 11:43 PM

My 2cents.....First, they mention a couple months before launch that they did not change Franchise. I expect the next Madden to get great sales numbers over this year's because of this. Second, NCAA 11 was flat out awesome this year and people decided to shelve Madden again because very little was changed. Third, this is just my opinion.....they might get better than expected sales numbers this Christmas because, like every year, Madden drops in price ALOT day after Thanksgiving and usually stays low.

So I played 2K Baseball and I noticed some things that I would love to see in future Madden titles in the commentary, like little quips about a guy that is leading in stats or a team that is leading in stats. And some commentary about the schedule or team stats would be very cool....the commentary needs alot of work, and new commentators is not the answer which was proven this year.

# 134 zeroice @ 11/19/10 12:17 AM

they created gameplans then implemented a patch that made them useless?? so much worn woht it but its madden and maybe they will eturn to the great gamplay and stop coming up with gimmicks

# 135 PantherBeast_OS @ 11/19/10 02:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PikeJR23


	Quick and simple solution: Hire the ppl who worked on NFL 2k5...it may take two years for them to completely change the game to something that resembles sim football but I would prefer that over their current direction. All they have to do is look at the success of NBA 2k11.

This will be the only time I talk about APF 2K8 in a madden forum. I'm not bashing 2k8 to let you know. But I'm going to be honest. I like the game and I own it and play it time from time. The Pyshics part the game is good. But the graphics on 2k8 is to cartoonish to me. Madden graphics better. Madden just needs to put a good psyhics engine into madden game and then it would be better. But 2k8 looks just to cartoonish for my taste. I like playing 2k8 and madden 11. But if EA did try getting the 2k people to work on madden. They would have to come up with new graphics apart from the old 2k version cartoonish graphics..

# 136 rooney8 @ 11/19/10 02:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Legend Killer


	This will be the only time I talk about APF 2K8 in a madden forum. I'm not bashing 2k8 to let you know. But I'm going to be honest. I like the game and I own it and play it time from time. The Pyshics part the game is good. But the graphics on 2k8 is to cartoonish to me. Madden graphics better. Madden just needs to put a good psyhics engine into madden game and then it would be better. But 2k8 looks just to cartoonish for my taste. I like playing 2k8 and madden 11. But if EA did try getting the 2k people to work on madden. They would have to come up with new graphics apart from the old 2k version cartoonish graphics..

Do bad graphics not just equal a low budget. Also I thought they did hire the people from 2K5? Never played 2K8 but saw a video of the pocket in 2K8 and it was just a thing of beauty.

# 137 PantherBeast_OS @ 11/19/10 02:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JayD


	If you import the same exact crappy franchise mode from the previous year with little to no changes it will hurt the lasting appeal of Madden which in return will hurt sales down the line. Crate a deep franchise mode and maybe you'll have consumers buying the game after a few months of it's release and the consumers who already had the game would hold on to it longer rather than trading it in for a different game.

Agreed. If EA wants any type of hope of their hardcore fans coming back and sales going back up next year. Then they better do what they say they are going to do. They said their focus for madden 12 would be franchise. Then mine my guess if they want to make fans happy once again next year. Is to really focus on the details on franchise mode for most of the year and make sure it is done right. Then a few months before the game comes out. They need to fix the gameplay on D and offense to make it decent and playable and fix presentation aswell. But again Franchise mode for next year will be their main saling point to get the attentions of their loyal fans once again.

# 138 Gordy748 @ 11/19/10 04:59 AM

Not defending EA for a minute, but there are mitigating circumstances. The economy sucks more than in 2005, so I'd wager fewer boxes of games are being sold (smaller market). At the same time, casual gamers are seeing a lot of big games coming out in Q4, like Black Ops, Gran Turismo 5 (ok, for PS3), Assassin's Creed, Fallout New Vegas... And let's not start with the PS3 Move or Kinnect games.

So NFL11 is competing in a smaller market against better competition. But that's as much sympathy as EA gets in this post. It had to up its games (sic) in order to compete. But has it? Long time fans say no, and their word-of-mouth simply pushes casual gamers to other titles.

Fallout NV is an interesting comparison. It's really just an expansion pack for Fallout 3, different enough (just) to be worth the asking price. But Bethesda will know they can't produce another Fallout 3 copy without impacting their or the series' reputation. EA, on the other hand, have not significantly changed the game since... what, 2005? 2006? That's too many iterations of the same theme.

As for making the game more arcade versus sim, I think arcade play would be folly. Arcade games are for Mario and Sonic fans, not NFL. And sports games have always had a steep learning curve, whether playing them for real or on a console. It's part of their DNA. If EA really wants casual gamers for NFL they should insert a series of options and assists that allow the game to play easier. Give them an easier, simpler path to get up to the skills and knowledge of the simmers, not dumb the simmer experience down to the lowest common denominator.

# 139 pietasterp @ 11/19/10 05:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gordy748


	Not defending EA for a minute, but there are mitigating circumstances. The economy sucks more than in 2005, so I'd wager fewer boxes of games are being sold (smaller market). At the same time, casual gamers are seeing a lot of big games coming out in Q4, like Black Ops, Gran Turismo 5 (ok, for PS3), Assassin's Creed, Fallout New Vegas... And let's not start with the PS3 Move or Kinnect games. So NFL11 is competing in a smaller market against better competition. But that's as much sympathy as EA gets in this post. It had to up its games (sic) in order to compete. But has it? Long time fans say no, and their word-of-mouth simply pushes casual gamers to other titles.

I think you are partially right, but then how do you explain how NBA2K is doing this year? I think the market and dollars are there for GOOD games, and people are simply voting with their wallets. Madden is just too bland at this point...if someone took the names off the guys, I'm not sure I could tell if I were playing this year's game or last year's game. There's no "wow" factor or pizzazz to the game. I'm personally waiting for another football epiphany like I had the first time I saw the original NFL2K in a mall game store 10 years ago. My jaw dropped and for the only time in my life, I walked into the store and bought a Dreamcast on the spot just to get that game. Maybe I'm expecting too much to think that will ever happen again, but I can't help but wonder, given the way NBA2k basically ran Live/Elite out of the market, how much better an NFL game could be out there right now if 2k were still in the game. Would Madden 11 have been canned in the face of an overwhelmingly superior NFL2k11? I guess we'll never know...

# 140 bxgoods @ 11/19/10 09:23 AM

Why are people compare Madden with NBA 2k so much? Do y'all actually look at sale numbers before you talk?
NBA2K11 has sold. 53 million to date on in 6 weeks on 360
Madden 11 sold. 6 mill in its first week on 360.
Why do y'all get the opinion NBA 2k is selling so much better than Madden? It ain't.
Sim games aren't selling better than Madden either, the only game EA reps will try to mimic is FIFA, that's the only sports game now that is making a lot of money besides Madden.

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