Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

[PeoplesChampGB]

Quote: Originally Posted by numberFour4ever

Go back to school, ggsimmonds. Brett Favre 2nd year as starter, 1993 - 3300 yards, 19 td, 24 int, 72.2 rate Brett Favre 3rd year as starter, 1994 - 3800 yards, 33 td, 13 int, 90.7 rate (Favre was the 1994 NFL MVP) Drew Brees 2nd year as starter, 2003 - 2100 yards, 11 td, 15 int, 67.5 rate Drew Brees 3rd year as starter, 2004 - 3100 yards, 27 td, 7 int 104.8 rate (Brees was injured in 2003) Peyton Manning, 2000.. not a huge jump but he did lead League in passing yards and touchdowns for the first time. Phillip Rivers 2nd year as starter, 2007 - 3150 yards, 21 td, 15 int, 82.4 rate Phillip Rivers 3rd year as starter, 2008 - 4000 yards, 34 td, 11 int, 105.5 rate (Rivers lead the NFL in tds and rating in 2008) 2001 NFL Champs - Patriots.. their starter.... 3rd year QB Tom Brady 2007 NFL Champs - Giants.. their starter.. 3rd year QB Eli Manning ... you were right on Cunningham. His MVP-caliber season was 1990, which was his 4th year. My bad there.

There was a clarification error. The post before yours said 3rd year, not 3rd year starting. Just pointing that out. Eli started for the Giants in 2004, unless you are only counting full starting seasons. You should clarify the conditions you are presenting your stats to before presenting them.

[numberFour4ever]

Quote: Originally Posted by PeoplesChampGB

There was a clarification error. The post before yours said 3rd year, not 3rd year starting. Just pointing that out. Eli started for the Giants in 2004, unless you are only counting full starting seasons. You should clarify the conditions you are presenting your stats to before presenting them.

He bolded exactly what I was stating earlier.

[PeoplesChampGB]

Quote: Originally Posted by numberFour4ever

He bolded exactly what I was stating earlier.

If you are going by that then, Eli won his superbowl in his fourth year (both in the league and starting). Brady won a SB in his second, fourth and fifth.

EDIT: I am not for you or against you in this. I am just trying to find out the conditions you are setting to meet your argument. You could put Rodgers on your list. He won a SB his third year starting.

[ggsimmonds]

Quote: Originally Posted by numberFour4ever

Go back to school, ggsimmonds. Brett Favre 2nd year as starter, 1993 - 3300 yards, 19 td, 24 int, 72.2 rate Brett Favre 3rd year as starter, 1994 - 3800 yards, 33 td, 13 int, 90.7 rate (Favre was the 1994 NFL MVP) Drew Brees 2nd year as starter, 2003 - 2100 yards, 11 td, 15 int, 67.5 rate Drew Brees 3rd year as starter, 2004 - 3100 yards, 27 td, 7 int 104.8 rate (Brees was injured in 2003) Peyton Manning, 2000.. not a huge jump but he did lead League in passing yards and touchdowns for the first time. Phillip Rivers 2nd year as starter, 2007 - 3150 yards, 21 td, 15 int, 82.4 rate Phillip Rivers 3rd year as starter, 2008 - 4000 yards, 34 td, 11 int, 105.5 rate (Rivers lead the NFL in tds and rating in 2008) 2001 NFL Champs - Patriots.. their starter.... 3rd year QB Tom Brady 2007 NFL Champs - Giants.. their starter.. 3rd year QB Eli Manning ... you were right on Cunningham. His MVP-caliber season was 1990, which was his 4th year. My bad there.

Favre won his MVP in 1995 when he led the league in yards and TDs.

Check Brees' 4th year as a starter. He was right back to throwing 15 interceptions.

I took your advice and just got back from school. My teacher told me you should not show stats only when it supports your argument. So I'll post Peyton's stats for you.
1998: 3739 yards, 26 TD 28 int
1999: 4135 yards, 26 TD, 15 int
2000: 4413 yards 33 TD, 15 int
2001: 4131 yards 26 TD, 23 int

I don't see how anyone could look at that and say yeah, he made a jump in his 3rd year.

For Phillip Rivers, his first year was not bad. He threw for 3388 yards with 22 TD and 9 interceptions for a QB rating of 92.5. But in that year Tomlinson ran for 1800 yards. In 2008 Tomlinson ran for 1100 yards. Maybe that is where the yards went?

2001 SB champs Qb was second year but first year starter Tom Brady.

It was Eli's 3rd full season when they won the SB, but he started 7 games his rookie year.

[ProfessaPackMan]

Quote:

1998: 3739 yards, 26 TD 28 int 1999: 4135 yards, 26 TD, 15 int 2000: 4413 yards 33 TD, 15 int I don't see how anyone could look at that and say yeah, he made a jump in his 3rd year.

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but aren't his 3rd year basic numbers the very definition of making a jump?

[DieHardYankee26]

Seems like pretty normal progression. He had a yards boost but not much bigger than the one from year 1 to 2, more touchdowns obviously. Depends on what you mean by jump probably. He got better, but significantly so? Or more than you'd expect given progression from year 1 to 2? Probably not. Then he was back to Year 2 level afterwards which would imply he didn't make any jump, he just had some things go his way that hadn't in other years.

[numberFour4ever]

I gave the reason I believed in Bortles, and gave examples as to why.

If believing 3rd year QBs make a jump means I believe in Bigfoot, or the Loch Ness Monster, so be it. Plenty of people involved in the business believe it.

[ggsimmonds]

Quote: Originally Posted by ProfessaPackMan

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but aren't his 3rd year basic numbers the very definition of making a jump?

I don't think so. His 3rd year was the best year out of years 2,3,and 4 but I would not categorize it as any kind of jump.
I would define jump as elevating your level of play from one tier to the next, not a slight improvement in production. If Joe Flacco has a career year where he finally throws for over 4000 yards is that a jump? No, its just a career year. Now if he throws for 5000 yards and continues at a level close to that than it is a jump.

On the issue of 3rd year jumps in general, consider the following.

We should all agree that no rookie QB has been considered elite. Put it differently, we can't gauge progression from their last year into college to their first pro year.

I'd also wager that the vast majority of players meet their potential by their 6th season. At that point we pretty much know the quality of a player.

So that leaves years 2, 3, 4, and 5 as the progression years.

Assuming that there is no special year or pattern, we could assume that a QB would reach "elite" level 25% of the time in year 3 (and the same or close to it every year).

For there to be a special year 3 jump what percentage would it need to be? Forty percent of elite QBs reached that status in year 3? Fifty percent?

Or are there no jumps but instead a gradual linear progression peaking at the age of 28 or so?

I'm a data guy and the data does not support the year 3 jump.