Which Teams Are Overrated/Underrated?

[Yeah...THAT Guy]

Going off Vegas O/U's

Overrated (meaning at least 1.5 games higher than my projection):
Baltimore (8.5)
Chicago (7.5)
Jacksonville (7.5)
Los Angeles (7.5)
Philly (6.5)
San Fran (5.5)

Underrated (at least 1.5 games lower than my projection):
Arizona (9.5)
Buffalo (8)
Cleveland (4.5)
New England (10.5)
Pittsburgh (10.5)

[wwharton]

Quote: Originally Posted by Yeah...THAT Guy

Going off Vegas O/U's Overrated (meaning at least 1.5 games higher than my projection): Baltimore (8.5) Chicago (7.5) Jacksonville (7.5) Los Angeles (7.5) Philly (6.5) San Fran (5.5) Underrated (at least 1.5 games lower than my projection): Arizona (9.5) Buffalo (8) Cleveland (4.5) New England (10.5) Pittsburgh (10.5)

I know this is stupid to say but Vegas is smoking something with just about all of those predictions (even still, gotta disagree with your take of Pitt winning 12+ games)

[TheShizNo1]

Overrated:
Carolina
Atlanta
New Orleans

Underrated:
Tampa Bay

[rkwittem]

Quote: Originally Posted by numberFour4ever

Bortles is in his 3rd year as a starter, which has historically been the point where QBs become elite. They were 14th in points last year, 18th in yards. No reason they can't be a top 10 unit this year with all their talent. They had 5 top 50 draft picks starting on D last year, *without* Dante Fowler. They landed the best corner in the draft, and Myles Jack was a steal. It looks like they have the horses to jump to being a middle-of-the-road D. (31st last year) In this day and age, that's enough to be a Super Bowl contender.

No, it's not. WRs do not win games for you. The vast majority are decided by QB and line play, and I have doubts about all 3. Bortles is a classic garbage time QB who piles up lots of yards and TDs inefficiently.

Bortles simply wasn't that great last year and teams had a whole summer to get a good long look at him. So yeah, he's improved from year 1 to year 2 but it wasn't that big a jump.

Not to mention their coach is 0-17 versus playoff teams. That's not exactly encouraging either.

[ggsimmonds]

Quote: Originally Posted by numberFour4ever

Bortles is in his 3rd year as a starter, which has historically been the point where QBs become elite. They were 14th in points last year, 18th in yards. No reason they can't be a top 10 unit this year with all their talent. They had 5 top 50 draft picks starting on D last year, *without* Dante Fowler. They landed the best corner in the draft, and Myles Jack was a steal. It looks like they have the horses to jump to being a middle-of-the-road D. (31st last year) In this day and age, that's enough to be a Super Bowl contender.

Are you repeating that because it is said so often that it is cliche?

I don't think QBs make any more of a jump in their 3rd year than any other year.

[numberFour4ever]

Quote: Originally Posted by ggsimmonds

Are you repeating that because it is said so often that it is cliche? I don't think QBs make any more of a jump in their 3rd year than any other year.

It's been true for many elite QBs statistically over the years;

Randall Cunningham
Brett Favre
Drew Brees
Peyton Manning
Phillip Rivers

And look at some of the guys who won the Super Bowl in their 3rd year;

Roger Staubach
Joe Montana
Eli Manning
Tom Brady

Is it the end-all be-all threshold? No. But there is something to the statement, obviously.

I expect big things from Bortles this year.

[ggsimmonds]

Quote: Originally Posted by numberFour4ever

It's been true for many elite QBs statistically over the years; Randall Cunningham Brett Favre Drew Brees Peyton Manning Phillip Rivers And look at some of the guys who won the Super Bowl in their 3rd year; Roger Staubach Joe Montana Eli Manning Tom Brady Is it the end-all be-all threshold? No. But there is something to the statement, obviously. I expect big things from Bortles this year.

Cunningham -- 1st year starting.
Favre -- Numbers nearly identical to year 2
Brees -- missed five games, but numbers were down from previous year
Manning -- Noticeable increase in production in year 3, but in year 4 the numbers were back to year 2 levels. It was year 2 when he made his "jump".
Rivers -- first year starting.

Eli didn't win the SB in his 3rd year. Also, his 3rd year was not any different from any other year.

Brady did not win the SB his 3rd year either. There was a noticeable increase in his production.

QBs do not make a jump in their 3rd year.

[numberFour4ever]

Go back to school, ggsimmonds.

Brett Favre 2nd year as starter, 1993 - 3300 yards, 19 td, 24 int, 72.2 rate
Brett Favre 3rd year as starter, 1994 - 3800 yards, 33 td, 13 int, 90.7 rate
(Favre was the 1994 NFL MVP)

Drew Brees 2nd year as starter, 2003 - 2100 yards, 11 td, 15 int, 67.5 rate
Drew Brees 3rd year as starter, 2004 - 3100 yards, 27 td, 7 int 104.8 rate
(Brees was injured in 2003)


Peyton Manning, 2000.. not a huge jump but he did lead League in passing yards and touchdowns for the first time.

Phillip Rivers 2nd year as starter, 2007 - 3150 yards, 21 td, 15 int, 82.4 rate
Phillip Rivers 3rd year as starter, 2008 - 4000 yards, 34 td, 11 int, 105.5 rate
(Rivers lead the NFL in tds and rating in 2008)

2001 NFL Champs - Patriots.. their starter.... 3rd year QB Tom Brady
2007 NFL Champs - Giants.. their starter.. 3rd year QB Eli Manning

... you were right on Cunningham. His MVP-caliber season was 1990, which was his 4th year. My bad there.