NCAA Football 11 News Post

OS College Football Simulation with WhatifSports.com

07:28 PM - August 27, 2010 by RaychelSnr

The 2010 College Football season kicks off next weekend, but we have you covered with simulations of each major conference today with our friends at WhatIfSports and NCAA Football. We took the average of each simulation and came out with a final result.

If the simulations are any indication, we will end up with a pretty wild season, with several teams coming out of nowhere to contend for a National Title in one of the craziest BCS messes yet, with representatives from each major conference being in the mix for a BCS Championship game berth. Find out how the simulations did after the jump. And for more college football goodness, check out the Season Simulation WhatIfSports did by heading over to their site!

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# 1 Cusefan @ 08/27/10 07:32 PM

Syracuse finishing 4th in the BE, Yea I can accept that.

# 2 Beastly Wayz @ 08/27/10 09:03 PM

GO Bucks !!!

# 3 mgoblue678 @ 08/27/10 09:13 PM

Read on another site that this same "simulation" also had UCONN beating Michigan 95% of the time which leads me to believe it has very little credibility, if any. Just for comparison it had UCONN beating Michigan a higher percentage of the time, than it had for Michigan beating Bowling Green. LOL at anybody putting any stock into this.

And using NCAA 11 for the other half which I assume was with the default rosters, that's just as bad. The default rosters aren't exactly realistic.

And really any "simulation" like this is flawed quite a bit simply because it is largely based on last year and college football is the most unpredictable sport year to year. There are just so many unknowns for a good number of teams going into each year. It looks to ignore the fact that some teams do improve significantly or get worse year to year.

# 4 Buckeyes_Doc @ 08/27/10 09:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgoblue678


	Read on another site that this same "simulation" also had UCONN beating Michigan 95% of the time which leads me to believe it has very little credibility, if any. LOL at anybody putting any stock into this. And using NCAA 11 for the other half which I assume was with the default rosters, that's just as bad. The default rosters aren't exactly realistic.

You're right. It should be 99% of the time.

# 5 Cusefan @ 08/27/10 09:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgoblue678


	Read on another site that this same "simulation" also had UCONN beating Michigan 95% of the time which leads me to believe it has very little credibility, if any. LOL at anybody putting any stock into this. And using NCAA 11 for the other half which I assume was with the default rosters, that's just as bad. The default rosters aren't exactly realistic.

It was actually is pretty accurate last year. UCONN is going to be Pretty good this year, My Money is on UCONN.

# 6 russwg1970 @ 08/27/10 09:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgoblue678


	Read on another site that this same "simulation" also had UCONN beating Michigan 95% of the time which leads me to believe it has very little credibility, if any. Just for comparison it had UCONN beating Michigan a higher percentage of the time, than it had for Michigan beating Bowling Green. LOL at anybody putting any stock into this. And using NCAA 11 for the other half which I assume was with the default rosters, that's just as bad. The default rosters aren't exactly realistic. And really any "simulation" like this is flawed quite a bit simply because it is largely based on last year and college football is the most unpredictable sport year to year. There are just so many unknowns for a good number of teams going into each year. It looks to ignore the fact that some teams do improve significantly or get worse year to year.

UCONN is a pretty descent team, I almost think that's believable. I wonder if Rich has his resume updated?

# 7 mgoblue678 @ 08/27/10 09:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cusefan


	It was actually is pretty accurate last year. UCONN is going to be Pretty good this year, My Money is on UCONN.

It is accurate for last year, because it is largely based on last year. Not exactly hard to figure that out.

And UCONN is solid, nothing more nothing less. Average QB, Average to Subpar Receivers and a bad pass defense. Doesn't exactly equal pretty good. Not to mention both of their starting DE's are out, good luck stopping Denard Robinson on the read option without good DE play.

LOL at people thinking that is believable. Right, because UCONN has a higher probability of beating Michigan than Michigan does of beating Bowling Green. Keep believing that is realistic though. At least according to Vegas UM is the favorite, all be it a slim one.

I would put money on Michigan lighting up UCONN's defense and UCONN does not have the passing game to keep up. I remember UCONN giving up 500+ yards to Syracuse in a game last year, Michigan has far more skill on offense than a team like Syracuse. And like I said UCONN's defense will also be missing their starting defensive ends, one of them Greg Loyd is a very good player.

Oh well, Michigan will just have to prove the doubters wrong this season. I doubt UCONN wins the game let alone 90% of the time.

# 8 Cusefan @ 08/27/10 09:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgoblue678


	It is accurate for last year, because it is largely based on last year. Not exactly hard to figure that out. And UCONN is solid, nothing more nothing less. Average QB, Average to Subpar Receivers and a bad pass defense. Doesn't exactly equal pretty good. Not to mention both of there starting DE's are out, good luck stopping Denard Robinson on the read option without good DE play. LOL at people thinking that is believable. Right, because UCONN has a higher probability of beating Michigan than Michigan does of beating Bowling Green. Keep believing that is realistic though. Michigan will light up UCONN's defense and UCONN does not have the passing game to keep up.

Here is what Gives UCONN the Edge, Greg Robinson. His Defense and his schemes will be nothing new to UCONN. UCONN is a veteran team that damn near won 10 games last year, Michigan continues on its downward spiral. Michigan will get punched in the face by a more experienced and physical team, How they react will only determine how many points they lose by.

Take it for what its worth, I won about 1.5K betting football games last year, I won about 70% of my games. I'm taking UCONN and the points.

The Preseason is fun, but reality is all but a week away, enjoy it while you can.

# 9 Buckeyes_Doc @ 08/27/10 09:59 PM

I'm taking UCONN as well. I don't have much confidence in a team who won 5 games last year.

# 10 Cusefan @ 08/27/10 10:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buckeyes_Doc


	I'm taking UCONN as well. I don't have much confidence in a team who won 5 games last year.

I wouldn't put much confidence with any team that has Greg Robinson as a Defensive Coordinator.

# 11 mgoblue678 @ 08/27/10 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cusefan


	Here is what Gives UCONN the Edge, Greg Robinson. His Defense and his schemes will be nothing new to UCONN. UCONN is a veteran team that damn near won 10 games last year, Michigan continues on its downward spiral. The Preseason is fun, but reality is all but a week away, enjoy it while you can.

And if look closely the reason they didn't is because they could not win games when they had to pass at a high level in order to win. Calling their qb Frazier average and wr's average is actually being generous.

They will have to throw at high level if they want to stay in and win this game, if you want to put money on them doing something they didn't even do once last season go right ahead.

And seriously your obsession with hating Greg Robinson is bordering on ridiculous. Being a head coach and defensive coordinator is not the same thing, I remember trying to explain this to you last year I believe, but you wouldn't listen than so I am not going to bother now.

You guys are seriously missing the point, the simulation gives UCONN a 95% chance of winning, which is essentially the same odds it would give them to beat a D2 school. If you feel UCONN is going to win that is one thing, but the percentage is the ridiculous part which like I said throws the credibility of this simulation out the window.

I am only realistically looking at somewhere around a 7-5 record for UM due to the secondary issues, but this is one of the games I have a good deal of confidence in. Notre Dame the following week makes me much nervous.

# 12 Sportsforever @ 08/27/10 10:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgoblue678


	And if look closely the reason they didn't is because they could not win games when they had to pass at a high level in order to win. Calling their qb Frazier average and wr's average is actually being generous. They will have to throw at high level if they want to stay in and win this game, if you want to put money on them doing something they didn't even do once last season go right ahead. And seriously your obsession with hating Greg Robinson is bordering on ridiculous. Being a head coach and defensive coordinator is not the same thing, I remember trying to explain this to you last year I believe, but you wouldn't listen than so I am not going to bother now. You guys are seriously missing the point, the simulation gives UCONN a 95% chance of winning, which is essentially the same odds it would give them to beat a D2 school. If you feel UCONN is going to win that is one thing, but the percentage is the ridiculous part which like I said throws the credibility of this simulation out the window.

Look, I'll be pulling for Michigan to beat UCONN (and pretty much everyone else on their schedule as I like UM), but you need to be little more cautious with your optimism. I remember just a few years ago when Michigan fans were on here upset that their team had to play App St. because it was a joke game and we know how that ended. Bottom line, if I had to bet money today who wins, I would probably bet UCONN. Michigan just has too many questions at this point.

# 13 Cusefan @ 08/27/10 10:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgoblue678


	And if look closely the reason they didn't is because they could not win games when they had to pass at a high level in order to win. Calling their qb Frazier average and wr's average is actually being generous. They will have to throw at high level if they want to stay in and win this game, if you want to put money on them doing something they didn't even do once last season go right ahead. And seriously your obsession with hating Greg Robinson is bordering on ridiculous. Being a head coach and defensive coordinator is not the same thing, I remember trying to explain this to you last year I believe, but you wouldn't listen than so I am not going to bother now.

You apparently did not listen to me last year, I seem to recall the Michigan Defense getting torched against any decent offense last year. I am not obsessed with Grob, I just know what a lousy coach he is. Lets look at some 2009 Michigan Defensive Rankings:

Total Defense 82
Scoring Defense 77
Pass Defense 67
Rushing Defense 91

They are not nearly as bad as the 2008 Syracuse Defensive rankings, but its about what one would expect from a crappy coach who goes to to teach better players.

I do have to thank Richrod though, He fired one hell of a Defensive Coordinator. The Syracuse Defense improved in every single defensive category, I am very glad we have him

# 14 mgoblue678 @ 08/27/10 10:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sportsforever


	Look, I'll be pulling for Michigan to beat UCONN (and pretty much everyone else on their schedule as I like UM), but you need to be little more cautious with your optimism. I remember just a few years ago when Michigan fans were on here upset that their team had to play App St. because it was a joke game and we know how that ended. Bottom line, if I had to bet money today who wins, I would probably bet UCONN. Michigan just has too many questions at this point.

And what you fail to realize is UCONN has just as many. Like I said a subpar to average QB, subpar to average wr's, a pass defense that was even worse than Michigan's last year and both starting DE's being out.

If you want to point me to where I said UM will go 11-1 or something feel free. I realistically said somewhere around 7-5 , but this one of the games I feel confident due to the particular match ups.

UCONN should have trouble slowing down UM's offense and they don't have the potent passing game to take advantage of UM's secondary. Like I said the match up with ND creates more problems.

# 15 Sportsforever @ 08/27/10 10:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgoblue678


	And what you fail to realize is UCONN has just as many. Like I said a subpar to average QB, subpar to average wr's, a pass defense that was even worse than Michigan's last year and both starting DE's being out. If you want to point me to where I said UM will go 11-1 or something feel free. I realistically said somewhere around 7-5 , but this one of the games I feel confident due to the particular match ups. UCONN should have trouble slowing down UM's offense and they don't have the potent passing game to take advantage of UM's secondary. Like I said the match up with ND creates more problems.

Look, not disagreeing that UM should win the game. Just not surprised if they don't...nothing surprises me in CFB anymore.

# 16 Cusefan @ 08/27/10 10:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgoblue678


	And what you fail to realize is UCONN has just as many. Like I said a subpar to average QB, subpar to average wr's, a pass defense that was even worse than Michigan's last year and both starting DE's being out. If you want to point me to where I said UM will go 11-1 or something feel free. I realistically said somewhere around 7-5 , but this one of the games I feel confident due to the particular match ups. UCONN should have trouble slowing down UM's offense and they don't have the potent passing game to take advantage of UM's secondary. Like I said the match up with ND creates more problems.

Lets be fair to UCONN, they did have a starting CB killed 7 games into the season, If Jasper Howard is not killed, UCONN goes 10-2. I really hope for your sake that Michigan is not thinking like you are, because you are going to be in for a very rude awakening.

# 17 mgoblue678 @ 08/27/10 10:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cusefan


	You apparently did not listen to me last year, I seem to recall the Michigan Defense getting torched against any decent offense last year. I am not obsessed with Grob, I just know what a lousy coach he is. Lets look at some 2009 Michigan Defensive Rankings: Total Defense 82 Scoring Defense 77 Pass Defense 67 Rushing Defense 91 They are not nearly as bad as the 2008 Syracuse Defensive rankings, but its about what one would expect from a crappy coach who goes to to teach better players.

And if you actually watched Michigan last year you would know depth and talent were lacking. Not to mention inexperience at a certain spots. Even the best defensive coordinator could not have done that much better.

I never claimed Robinson was a great defensive coordinator, but over his career as d-coordinator he has shown an ability to be solid.

What you are doing though is cherry picking one season or certain seasons to prove your point about him instead of looking at his whole career. The only other bad years he had as a defensive coordinator was with the Chiefs when the talent on their defense was terrible.

# 18 mgoblue678 @ 08/27/10 10:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sportsforever


	Look, not disagreeing that UM should win the game. Just not surprised if they don't...nothing surprises me in CFB anymore.

Ok, that was all my point was. The original post I made in this thread that people reacted to was that this same simulation gave UCONN a 95% chance of winning which is one the reasons I don't find it credible. If people want to check out mgoblog where I read that at, there are a number of other things it predicts as well not related to Michigan that damage it's credibility.

My original point was I just find it kind of silly to put much stock into things like this.

But if people want to believe UCONN's has a 95% chance of winning when it is closer to a tossup they can, doesn't make it any less ridiculous though.

# 19 Cusefan @ 08/27/10 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mgoblue678


	And if you actually watched Michigan last year you would know depth and talent were lacking. Not to mention inexperience at a certain spots. Even the best defensive coordinator could not have done that much better. I never claimed Robinson was a great defensive coordinator, but over his career as d-coordinator he has shown an ability to be solid. What you are doing though is cherry picking one season or certain seasons to prove your point about him instead of looking at his whole career. The only other bad years he had as a defensive coordinator was with the Chiefs when the talent on their defense was terrible.

Well considering I have been watching his progress as a coach for the past 5 years, I would say I have more than enough time to make a educated statement in that, he blows as a Coach. If he proves me wrong, then I will be here to eat crow. But last year I was right, You said he was a good defensive Coordinator and he did not help your cause.

Can you even point to one thing in the past 5 years that proves he is a capable Defensive Coordinator? In his last season at Syracuse he said he was going to take over the reigns at DC, here are the end of season stats:

Total Offense: 109
Pass Defense 103
Rush Defense: 53
Scoring Defense: 110
Sacks:112(yes that is last in the nation)

I wont beat around the bush, I HATE Greg Robinson. He damn near ruined Everything about Syracuse football, EVERYTHING. It is not a coincidence that the Year Rutgers got good and Syracuse got Sh*****, That happened on his watch. He Ruined Every single Syracuse recruiting connection in the North East. There is literally no redeeming qualities about what he did here(except beating ND twice).

You can keep sticking up for him but it does not change the fact that he blows as a coach. I have backed up my point, show me something he has done in the last half of the decade that proves me otherwise.

# 20 mgoblue678 @ 08/27/10 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cusefan


	Well considering I have been watching his progress as a coach for the past 5 years, I would say I have more than enough time to make a educated statement in that, he blows as a Coach. If he proves me wrong, then I will be here to eat crow. But last year I was right, You said he was a good defensive Coordinator and he did not help your cause. Can you even point to one thing in the past 5 years that proves he is a capable Defensive Coordinator? In his last season at Syracuse he said he was going to take over the reigns at DC, here are the end of season stats: Total Offense: 109 Pass Defense 103 Rush Defense: 53 Scoring Defense: 110 Sacks:112(yes that is last in the nation) I wont beat around the bush, I HATE Greg Robinson. He damn near ruined Everything about Syracuse football, EVERYTHING. It is not a coincidence that the Year Rutgers got good and Syracuse got Sh*****, That happened on his watch. He Ruined Every single Syracuse recruiting connection in the North East. There is literally no redeeming qualities about what he did here(except beating ND twice). You can keep sticking up for him but it does not change the fact that he blows as a coach. I have backed up my point, show me something he has done in the last half of the decade that proves me otherwise.

And those defenses at Syracuse had talent? Obviously that falls on his recruiting ability in terms of why they didn't, but those Syracuse defenses had even worse talent than Michigan's defense last year. Any way you want to slice, a defensive's coordinator success is largely dependent on the talent of the defense.

And what you fail to realize, is it is a little different being both the head coach and defensive coordinator as opposed to just the defensive coordinator. One gives you more time to focus strictly on only the defensive coaching aspect.

Like I said you whole opinion of him is based on what he did as the head coach of Syracuse, you basically said as much.

The easiest point to prove you otherwise is the number of credible/successful coaches who have hired him in the NFL and college. Obviously if he blew as much you claim those coaches shouldn't even have considered him let alone hired him.

Pretty convenient you want to throw out any years that aren't in the last 4 or 5 years when judging the guy. Like I said your cherry picking, he has had success as a defensive coordinator at times in his career whether you want to acknowledge it or not . Give the guy a decent amount of talent/depth and he has shown an ability to be a solid defensive coordinator.

Not to mention your whole argument is moot in terms of why I think UM will win this game. I don't expect UM to shut down UCONN. I expect UM to score at a high rate in this game and that UCONN will not quite be able to match, due to their subpar passing game not being able to fully exploit the weakest part of UM's defense like a better passing team might be able to.

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