CelticLG Roster to PC

[Ohhmyjoshhh]

Quote: Originally Posted by Barncore

Are you going to add the 2019 draftees to the roster?

Majority of them have been added. If theres specific players you are wondering about, lmk and I can look at adding them in

[HesiPullupJimbo]

I think Seth Curry is a bit underrated.
Right now his 3pt ratings are 86/85/86
compared to Steph's which are 99/98/99

Statistically
Seth shot 45% on 3.4 3PA, catch and shoot- 49.7% on 2.1 3PA, pull-up- 37.6% on 1.3 3PA
Steph shot 43.2% on 11.6 3PA, catch and shoot- 44.6% on 6.7 3PA, pull-up- 41.5 on 4.9 3PA

Steph obviously had a much larger volume and Seth avoided taking contested shots, so we can still assume Steph is the better 3pt shooter, but Seth should probably be in the 90's for open 3's (which he hits 51.4% of the time compared to Steph's 52.5%).

I'd boost Seth's open 3pt rating to the high 90's.

I can't really tell what he should have for contested 3's though. When there is a defender 2-4 feet away, he shoots 46.9% on 0.7 attempts compared to Steph's 36.7% on 2.1 attempts. I'd probably boost it up a bit, but I absolutely don't believe he is the better contested 3pt shooter.


https://stats.nba.com/player/203552/shots-dash/
https://stats.nba.com/player/201939/shots-dash/




Edit: Also, Justin Anderson was not retained by Atlanta and Vince Carter has signed with them.


https://www.ajc.com/sports/basketbal...4sZdrv8vGoEOI/
https://news.yahoo.com/ap-source-car...9536--nba.html

[HesiPullupJimbo]

I might be using an old update, but Rudy Gay has 80-75-75 for his 3pt ratings. He is coming off of a career year where he shot 40.2% on 2.7 3PA. Patty Mills was given a 81-78-78 after shooting 39.4% on 4.9 3PA. On open catch and shoot 3's Patty is slightly better (44.9% to 43.9%), but Rudy Gay was oddly a knockdown pull-up 3pt shooter.



Rudy Gay shot 48.3% on pullup 3's (0.4 per game volume though) compared to Mills' 34.2 on 1.9 3PA. Gay's per game volume is pretty low, but I wondered how many shots that translated to, in total. Gay took 184 3PA and roughly 15.4% of those were pull-up, so he only took 28 pull-up 3's making about 14 of them. Hmm. Low volume.


Well, sorry if I wasted both of our times with this, although, maybe Gay's midrange ratings are actually what is off. They are 84-80-80 when he shot 53.1% on pull-up midrange shots with 3.3 per game volume. Derozan, for comparison, has 94-94-94 midrange ratings and shot 42% on 8.0 midrange pull-ups per game. Obviously, volume is going to factor in, but I think there is enough to justify having a higher moving midrange rating for Gay.



Edit: Jakob Pöltl is also underrated as a 75 imo. He had a 133 offensive rating (best on the Spurs last season) and a 108 defensive rating. He lead the team in Win Shares per 48 (was third in total win shares). He had 6.8 offensive rebounds per 100 possessions compared to Lamarcus Aldridge's 4.6 (2.6 blocks per 100 to 1.9). Eff FG% of .645%, TrueShooting of .640%. His PER was 19.4 (Derozan's was 19.6). He played 1273 minutes, which is more than Aron Baynes had (821), but still fairly low (Zach Collins had 1356).



I have a hard time judging big men, but maybe you can make sense of those numbers (if you even believe in those metrics). I've heard from Spurs fans that he scores really highly on the "eye test" and they are hoping he gets more minutes next season. I had heard from Raptor's fans that he was fairly solid at everything, but not great at anything in particular.

Edit: Also, Jerami Grant seems significantly underrated as a 3pt shooter considering he hit 41.8% off his open catch and shoot 3's on a 3.1 attempt per game volume (he never takes contested or moving 3's though).


https://stats.nba.com/player/200752/shots-dash/
https://stats.nba.com/player/201988/shots-dash/
https://stats.nba.com/player/201942/shots-dash/

[Ohhmyjoshhh]

Whats up Hesi,

I appreciate all the input and data you gave man. A lot of the players you pointed out started doing well during the middle of the season which was after we did the Celtic LG roster conversion.
But, I was able to look into each of those players and make some necessary adjustments. After taking into account the volume of shots, I think I was able to find a good median for each of their attributes/stats. Go check it out!

** Keep in mind, when looking at attributes, you also have to look at offensive consistency, shot tendencies, and touch tendencies as well. That helps with the balancing of shooters who shoot a better percentage vs players who shoot at a higher volume (i.e. Seth vs Steph). **

I also made some new changes including:
- Added a couple new rookies that were missing
- FA signings / 10 day contracts
- Contracts extensions
- Line ups / Rotations

Quote: Originally Posted by HesiPullupJimbo

I might be using an old update, but Rudy Gay has 80-75-75 for his 3pt ratings. He is coming off of a career year where he shot 40.2% on 2.7 3PA. Patty Mills was given a 81-78-78 after shooting 39.4% on 4.9 3PA. On open catch and shoot 3's Patty is slightly better (44.9% to 43.9%), but Rudy Gay was oddly a knockdown pull-up 3pt shooter. Rudy Gay shot 48.3% on pullup 3's (0.4 per game volume though) compared to Mills' 34.2 on 1.9 3PA. Gay's per game volume is pretty low, but I wondered how many shots that translated to, in total. Gay took 184 3PA and roughly 15.4% of those were pull-up, so he only took 28 pull-up 3's making about 14 of them. Hmm. Low volume. Well, sorry if I wasted both of our times with this, although, maybe Gay's midrange ratings are actually what is off. They are 84-80-80 when he shot 53.1% on pull-up midrange shots with 3.3 per game volume. Derozan, for comparison, has 94-94-94 midrange ratings and shot 42% on 8.0 midrange pull-ups per game. Obviously, volume is going to factor in, but I think there is enough to justify having a higher moving midrange rating for Gay. Edit: Jakob Pöltl is also underrated as a 75 imo. He had a 133 offensive rating (best on the Spurs last season) and a 108 defensive rating. He lead the team in Win Shares per 48 (was third in total win shares). He had 6.8 offensive rebounds per 100 possessions compared to Lamarcus Aldridge's 4.6 (2.6 blocks per 100 to 1.9). Eff FG% of .645%, TrueShooting of .640%. His PER was 19.4 (Derozan's was 19.6). He played 1273 minutes, which is more than Aron Baynes had (821), but still fairly low (Zach Collins had 1356). I have a hard time judging big men, but maybe you can make sense of those numbers (if you even believe in those metrics). I've heard from Spurs fans that he scores really highly on the "eye test" and they are hoping he gets more minutes next season. I had heard from Raptor's fans that he was fairly solid at everything, but not great at anything in particular. Edit: Also, Jerami Grant seems significantly underrated as a 3pt shooter considering he hit 41.8% off his open catch and shoot 3's on a 3.1 attempt per game volume (he never takes contested or moving 3's though). https://stats.nba.com/player/200752/shots-dash/ https://stats.nba.com/player/201988/shots-dash/ https://stats.nba.com/player/201942/shots-dash/

[HesiPullupJimbo]

It looks good!



Some things I did notice:


Wayne Selden won't be a Bull next season. He's off to China for a season ($3.5 mill!?!). Apparently, Jerian Grant will be headed there as well.

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/ba...aded-to-china/




I noticed Monte Morris and Malik Beasley seem a little underrated. They shot 41.6% (2.8 3PA) and 40.2% (5.0 3PA) from 3 respectively.



Morris is interesting because he is pure catch and shoot from 3 (44.3% on 2.1 3PA), but almost all of his midrange shots are pull-up and he is automatic with them. He shot 50% on 2.7 pull-up midrange jumpers per game. He never takes contested 3's, but from midrange he is good even with a guy in his jersey (53.2% on 0.8 attempts when the defender is less than 2 feet away). When the defender gives him space (4-6 feet), he hit 60% on 1.5 attempts.




Beasley took 4.1 catch and shoot 3's per game making 42.2%. James Harden only takes 0.9 catch and shoot attempts per game (12.1 pull-up), but only hit 41.4%. Malik Beasley, literally a better catch and shooter than Hitler.



He needs to be open though. When he is wide open he hit 43.6% on 2.5 attempts/game. When the defender is tight (0.5 of his attempts), he only shot 27.5%.


Hernangomez btw hit 42.3% of wide open 3's (1.8 attempts per game) and totally ****s the bed if anyone is within 6 feet of him. He currently has a 75 open 3 rating.


https://stats.nba.com/player/1628420/shots-dash/
https://stats.nba.com/player/1627736/shots-dash/
https://stats.nba.com/player/1627823/shots-dash/




Edit: Also noticed Tomáš Satoranský has a 71 driving layup. He had 162 layups last season and made 61.7% of them. Curry had a much larger volume (360 attempts), but made 60.8%. The closest comparison (by volume) that I can find is Terry Rozier who had 140 attempts making 47.1%. Terry Rozier's driving layup rating is 85.


https://www.basketball-reference.com.../shooting/2019
https://www.basketball-reference.com.../shooting/2018



Ryan Arcidiacono seems a little underrated as well, but that may be the homer in me. His overall is lower than Shrek (Cristiano Felicio), who a lot of Bulls fans think is trash (had a 13.4 PER if that counts for anything though). Arci hit 42% of his 2.0 catch and shoot 3PA. He was pretty bad moving or contested though. His pull-up midrange is low-volume (only 1 attempt per game), but he made 50.6%. He had a 121 offensive rate according to bbref. That seems to meet the eye test as a lot of Bulls fans felt like the offense works better with him than KDunn (99 offensive rate). He gets a lot of Captain Kirk (Hinrich) comparisons, but he probably will never be that great of a distributor.



https://stats.nba.com/player/1627853/shots-dash/

https://www.basketball-reference.com...arcidry01.html




Edit: A lot of the playbooks could be enhanced.




Edit: Forgot to mention Arci hit 58% of his 81 layups. Low volume, but probably warrants a bit higher rating.


Norman Powell's 3pt rating is 71/62/61. He had a career year from 3 last season. He hit 40% on 2.8 attempts. 2.2 of those attempts were catch and shoot and he hit 43.1% of those. 1.4 of his 3pt shots were wide open (defender further than 6 ft away) and he hit 44% of those. He is not good when contested.


https://stats.nba.com/player/1626181/shots-dash/




Edit: Just noticed Wendell Carter's block is a C+. Don't have the game running to check numbers, but he should be close to Embiid. Embiid averaged 2.7 blocks per 100 possessions to Carter's 2.5, but Carter blocked (an estimated) 4.5% of his opponents field goals compared to Embiid's 4.4%. Carter does struggle with the mental aspect though and does still need to build up a lot more strength. However, he is very good at rim protection/blocking shots.


https://www.basketball-reference.com...cartewe01.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com...embiijo01.html

[HesiPullupJimbo]

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 3 ratings might be slightly off. 77-75-75. He hit 38.8% of his wide open shots (2.5 at/g), 36.7% on catch and shoot (4.1 at/g), 27.4% of pull-up 3's (1.4 at/g), and was about 31% with a defender 2-6 feet away (2.8 at/g). I think 75 might be a bit generous for his moving 3. I keep meaning to build a spreadsheet to help analyze player stats, but until then, I'd say 75 is probably ok for his contested 3.



KCP's midrange is given 71-65-65. He didn't take a lot of midrange shots (about 2 a game), but he hit 53.5% on catch and shoot (0.5 at/g) and 42.9% on pull-up (1.4 at/g). Open (defender 4-6+ ft away) he hit about 66% on 1.5 at/g. Contested (defender 0-4 ft away) he still hit about 52% (2.3 at/g). Those numbers are a bit skewed because they include shots less than 10 ft from the basket where he hit 62% on 2 at/g volume. I think that includes layups. I wish I could isolate the midrange jumpers only. Bbref does and has it at 45.7% on 140 shots from 10 ft out to the 3pt line.


https://stats.nba.com/player/203484/shots-dash/

https://www.basketball-reference.com.../shooting/2019


Kyle Kuzma seems way overrated. He was one of the worst defensive power forwards in the NBA last season. His DRPM was -0.77, which was worse than Jerebko (-0.67) who has a D+/D- for his defensive ratings (Ins/Per) right now. At one point this was true:

Quote:

According to advanced stats, Kuzma is having a worse defensive season than the 34 year old Carmelo Anthony Defensive Box Plus-Minus: Kuzma is worst amongst all starting forwards. Carmelo is 3rd Defensive Win Shares : Kuzma and Carmelo are tied for second worst Defensive Rating : Kuzma is tied for second worst. Carmelo is third worst.

I think he had a better second half of the season though. Part of the reason he looked so bad was because the Lakers tried to play him at Center.


His 3pt % is pretty high (B+ 83/76/78) when he shot 30.3% on 8.5 at/g. That's pretty big volume though. Pull-up was 22.4% on 1 at/g. Catch and shoot 31.7% on 5 at/g. 31.9% on 3.8 at/g when wide open. 29.1% (2 at/g) when defender was 4-6 ft away. 17.6% when 2-4 ft away, but only 0.2 at/g, so he really shies away from taking contested 3s.


The volume throws me off though. I'm not sure how I would factor that in.


His block rating is 69. He blocked 0.5 shots per 100 possession and an estimated 0.9% of opponent field goals. Lonzo Ball and Reggie Bullock both blocked 0.6 p/100 and 1.1% of opponent field goals.


http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/r...RPM/position/6
https://stats.nba.com/player/1628398/shots-dash/
https://www.basketball-reference.com.../LAL/2019.html



I'm reminded that Lance Stephenson is playing in China next season, but I think you might have already taken care of that.


I'm going to continue to edit this as I did the previous post, so as not to upset moderators.




Edit: Boogie has a 60 vert, but dude couldn't jump before his achilles injury. He has a lot of shots blocked because he can't get off the ground. I even found an article on it.

Spoiler

Quote:

For all Cousins’s strength, he isn’t very springy, and the league has gotten smaller and more athletic in recent years. One way to see this trend is to look at how his leap stacks up against that of younger players: Cousins posted a max vertical jump of just 27.5 inches during the 2010 NBA Combine. Since that year’s draft, just two players — Nikola Vucevic in 2011 and Dakari Johnson in 2015 — have been selected despite getting so little liftoff at their combines. Before he was traded, I asked Cousins why he gets blocked so much, and he said that I didn’t have to search for a complicated explanation. “It’s because I can’t jump,” he said. “It’s really as simple as that.”

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ins-cant-jump/


Other player(s) I'd like to discuss:
Zubac
Rondo's 3


Sorry I never finished this, but I figured it's kind of silly when 2k20's demo comes out tomorrow and the release is less than 1 month away.


I was going to say that from what I'd heard around the league and from fans, that Zubac seems a little underrated. He was a rebounding fiend (5.5/12.5/18 of/def/tot rebounds per 100p), very good on defense, and had by far the best offensive season of his career.


https://www.basketball-reference.com...zubaciv01.html


Rondo had an excellent 3pt shooting season. I think I saw his 3pt was given a C-. His biggest problem is shot avoidance (thanks obama), not ability.


https://www.basketball-reference.com...rondora01.html


I think Kawhi is overrated. I didn't look close enough, but if any of his passing ratings are above 80, that's probably too high. His defense isn't as good as it once was either. Last season was his worst defensive season by a wide margin (still much better than an average defender, but he isn't the top perimeter defender anymore).


https://www.basketball-reference.com...leonaka01.html

[HesiPullupJimbo]

@ohmyjoshhh


Will you be porting the roster again this year?

[Ohhmyjoshhh]

Quote: Originally Posted by HesiPullupJimbo

@ohmyjoshhh Will you be porting the roster again this year?

I just got 2k20 today (Cyber Monday).
I hate paying full price for a game that I have to put so much work in to enjoy.

But I may be porting over this year... I will let you know for sure within a couple of days once I get a feel for the game.