Previews of Top 10 at each position?

[JoeCoolMan24]

Quote: Originally Posted by capnharry

We must be using different sources to track WAR because baseball reference has Pujols with a 7.4 WAR and Votto with a 6.2 WAR. PLEASE explain to me how Pujols had a down year? What statistics are you using to indicate this 'regression'? Is it simply because he is older than Votto? Pujols is 31 in '11 Votto is 27 in '11, I can hardly say Pujols is declining because of age at 31. Are you basing this on AVG, HR, and RBI? Sure those numbers were lower than the previous season but that HARDLY indicates a down year. You have to look at what everyone else in the game is doing. 42 HR were a lot more difficult in 2010. 2010 was the first year that the Major League average for homeruns per game was below 1.0 (0.95 in '10) since 1993. And I'm sorry but to say Votto was just as close as Pujols in the Triple Crown race isn't accurate. With 14 more hits, Pujols would have had the batting title. I'm not saying that's a small feat, but Votto not only needed 12 points in AVG he also needed to make up 5 HR which is by far tougher to make up than 14 hits. A 14 hit increase would indicate a 7.7% increase in production in hits for Pujols. Votto needed a 4% increase in hits PLUS 13.5% increase in HR and I'll leave the RBI out of it since you seem to think RBI go hand in hand with HR (I don't necessarily agree, see Barry Bonds, et al). The batting title was a close race until the last few weeks or so when CarGo hit a streak and separated himself. That could've easily been the case for Pujols or Votto for that matter. So again what would indicate a better '11 vs '10 for Pujols, RELATIVE to the rest of the league? He could hit 45 HR next year and have a .320 average but I would argue that does not necessarily indicate a better year than 2010 by any means. And you said at one point in your post he is 'head and shoulders the best in the game' shortly after saying 'the gap is not very big at all' between him and Votto. Not making much sense there. And as far as Votto having a better '11? You're basing that on one great year. Pujols has had TEN of them. Every year he has played he's had .300+ 30+ 100+. Votto has done that once. Over his CAREER, Pujols has AVERAGED .331, 41, and 123. Votto hasn't even put up those numbers in a SINGLE SEASON yet. I'll take Pujols over Votto in '11 every single time and I'm sure most people would. And I haven't even mentioned defense...

1) I am using Fangraphs for WAR. I've never seen anyone use B-R for WAR, actually.
2) Pujols, in relation to his past seasons, had a down year in 2010. Even using B-R for WAR, his 7.2 is the lowest he has put up since 2002. You seem to be way too hung up on the word "down" and are thinking that "down" equals "bad". Down just means "less than previous", and that's 100% true. His 2008 was better than his 2009, and his 2009 was better than his 2010.
3) What the rest of the league does really doesn't matter. If 4-5 guys last year hit 50+ HR, it wouldn't mean Pujols had any worse of a year, he just probably wouldn't have had a better year than them.
4) I said the HR and RBI go hand-in-hand because if he needs 5 HR and 5 RBI, it's impossible to not reach the RBI total when he reaches the HR total because you get at least 1 RBI for every HR, so it would be 2 birds with 1 stone. And I'll agree, Pujols was closer to the triple crown, but I still don't think he was pretty close to winning it. 24 pts is a lot to overcome, and he was behind like 4 or 5 other players.
5) I said "When you are heads and shoulders the best in the game, you can afford to regress and still hold the crown." meaning that for most of his career he was far and away the best player, so even though he has regressed the last couple years, he is still at the top of the league since he was so far ahead that he is just falling back down to the rest of the crowd.
6) I didn't say Votto would have a better 2011, I said Pujols is still probably the better player, but I don't think the difference in the two is very big, and I wouldn't be surprised if Votto DID have the better year again in 2011.

And you can mention defense, but when you do, make sure you note that Pujols' defense has declined every year since 2007, which could very well account for the declining WAR, and that Votto had a better defensive year in 2010 than Pujols. So maybe the real reason for his declining WAR is that his defense has fallen off a lot since 2007, and not necessarily his offense, both of which affect his WAR.

[capnharry]

Quote: Originally Posted by JoeCoolMan24

1) I am using Fangraphs for WAR. I've never seen anyone use B-R for WAR, actually. 2) Pujols, in relation to his past seasons, had a down year in 2010. Even using B-R for WAR, his 7.2 is the lowest he has put up since 2002. You seem to be way too hung up on the word "down" and are thinking that "down" equals "bad". Down just means "less than previous", and that's 100% true. His 2008 was better than his 2009, and his 2009 was better than his 2010. 3) What the rest of the league does really doesn't matter. If 4-5 guys last year hit 50+ HR, it wouldn't mean Pujols had any worse of a year, he just probably wouldn't have had a better year than them. 4) I said the HR and RBI go hand-in-hand because if he needs 5 HR and 5 RBI, it's impossible to not reach the RBI total when he reaches the HR total because you get at least 1 RBI for every HR, so it would be 2 birds with 1 stone. And I'll agree, Pujols was closer to the triple crown, but I still don't think he was pretty close to winning it. 24 pts is a lot to overcome, and he was behind like 4 or 5 other players. 5) I said "When you are heads and shoulders the best in the game, you can afford to regress and still hold the crown." meaning that for most of his career he was far and away the best player, so even though he has regressed the last couple years, he is still at the top of the league since he was so far ahead that he is just falling back down to the rest of the crowd. 6) I didn't say Votto would have a better 2011, I said Pujols is still probably the better player, but I don't think the difference in the two is very big, and I wouldn't be surprised if Votto DID have the better year again in 2011. And you can mention defense, but when you do, make sure you note that Pujols' defense has declined every year since 2007, which could very well account for the declining WAR, and that Votto had a better defensive year in 2010 than Pujols. So maybe the real reason for his declining WAR is that his defense has fallen off a lot since 2007, and not necessarily his offense, both of which affect his WAR.

Well I will simply agree to disagree with you. I think we've both made our points, and much more would just be beating a dead horse here. I do appreciate the debate though and appreciate your points. To reply to your comments:

1) I simply use B-R for most stat tracking other than looking up UZR just because I am more familiar/comfortable with the site. I was surprised to see variance among WAR values. I am not sure how this stat is calculated. I know UZR, for example, is calculated differently by different statisticians, I guess I just assumed WAR was uniform without looking in to it much so if fangraphs is a widely accepted better indicator of true WAR then fair enough. I don't know enough about the various sites to put up an argument there.

2) I agree that Pujols' WAR was lower in '10 than '09, which is why I was asking if that was your indicator of regression, which was my main question to you in both of my posts.

3) I strongly, strongly disagree here. What the rest of the league is doing in a particular season absolutely is an indicator of success. There are ebbs and flows in this game over the course of history. Hitters have pitchers figured out for a while, then pitchers figure out how to counter things over time, so on and so forth. Pitching was undoubtedly more dominant across the board in 2010 than it was in say 2007. 42 HR is a much more difficult feat in 2010 than in 1998 for example when 4 guys hit 50+. Only 2 guys broke 40 in 2010. There is no way anyone will ever convince me that if you take Greg Vaughn with his exact same abilities out of 1998 and out of the steroid era (not saying he did or didn't, just removing all possibilities) and implant him in to 2010 that he would still hit 50 HR. No way. You absolutely have to take in to account what is going on in the game in a particular season and era for that matter. We are in a completely different era and 42 HR is a much greater indicator of power in 2010 than it was even a few years ago. I hope I made sense here, I feel strongly about my point.

4) I agree that, all other things being equal, if 5 more balls cleared the fence that were caught on the track or something his RBI total would have increased by at least 5. Sorry if I took your quote out of context. My point here was that the batting title was very much a close race with Pujols in the very thick of it until late in the season. CarGo got hot, Pujols cooled off, could've happened the other way around and Votto could've gotten the hot hand just as easily as well. That was my only point here. 14 hits, while I'm not saying is easy, was not way out of reach. That's a little more than 2 outs a month that were seeing-eye singles or bloopers or balls on the track with more favorable wind or anything of that nature. That's all I'm saying.

5) Once again I'm sorry if I took your quote out of context or mistook it here. But I still strongly disagree that one statistical outlier of a season (and I don't think I would hardly consider it an outlier) is a strong indicator of regression. Prince Fielder had a much worse statistical '10 than '09 but I don't think it's fair to say he is regressing (though I would agree that bigger guys tend to begin regressing earlier in their career). I think it was much more psychological than abilities or talent. I would also say that one statistical outlier (which I think is much more accurate to say about Votto's '10 season) is not a strong indicator of future consistent success at that same or higher level.

6) When you evaluate the body of work for both players, I don't think Votto is quite the lock to dominate just yet. Very high ceiling, absolutely I agree, but he's not proven at a dominant level yet. At age 27, he has put up one great season of .300+, 30+, 100+. At age 27, Pujols had put up 7 of those seasons. At age 30, he's had 10 of them. I'm not saying Pujols is still 27, but I think it is very safe to say there is probably a 90% chance he does it again in '11. I wouldn't bet the odds of Votto doing it are anywhere near 90%. Pitchers may figure him out this offseason, something psychological may happen, injury, so many things we see all the time. Pujols has been doing this for a decade and nobody has figured him out nor has he showed anything close to significant slowing. Votto certainly has the potential to have as good or even better of a 2011, but he's nowhere near a lock. Votto was the MVP, but I think without question that if the Cardinals had won the division Pujols would've won. He did win the Silver Slugger over Votto and Gold Glove as well. Before you say it, yes I agree that both awards can tend to be reputation-based, but his reputation is certainly not without merit.

Defensively, my point was its not even close between Pujols and Votto and I think that is a major factor that can't be overlooked.

My whole point is it takes much more than what Pujols put up in '10 to indicate regression and that it takes more than one season of work to put a player in that elite category. I just don't believe that Votto can be put in the Pujols category at present time.

Maybe we can revisit this at the end of the year and see how it panned out

[JoeCoolMan24]

Quote: Originally Posted by capnharry

Well I will simply agree to disagree with you. I think we've both made our points, and much more would just be beating a dead horse here. I do appreciate the debate though and appreciate your points. To reply to your comments: 1) I simply use B-R for most stat tracking other than looking up UZR just because I am more familiar/comfortable with the site. I was surprised to see variance among WAR values. I am not sure how this stat is calculated. I know UZR, for example, is calculated differently by different statisticians, I guess I just assumed WAR was uniform without looking in to it much so if fangraphs is a widely accepted better indicator of true WAR then fair enough. I don't know enough about the various sites to put up an argument there. 2) I agree that Pujols' WAR was lower in '10 than '09, which is why I was asking if that was your indicator of regression, which was my main question to you in both of my posts. 3) I strongly, strongly disagree here. What the rest of the league is doing in a particular season absolutely is an indicator of success. There are ebbs and flows in this game over the course of history. Hitters have pitchers figured out for a while, then pitchers figure out how to counter things over time, so on and so forth. Pitching was undoubtedly more dominant across the board in 2010 than it was in say 2007. 42 HR is a much more difficult feat in 2010 than in 1998 for example when 4 guys hit 50+. Only 2 guys broke 40 in 2010. There is no way anyone will ever convince me that if you take Greg Vaughn with his exact same abilities out of 1998 and out of the steroid era (not saying he did or didn't, just removing all possibilities) and implant him in to 2010 that he would still hit 50 HR. No way. You absolutely have to take in to account what is going on in the game in a particular season and era for that matter. We are in a completely different era and 42 HR is a much greater indicator of power in 2010 than it was even a few years ago. I hope I made sense here, I feel strongly about my point. 4) I agree that, all other things being equal, if 5 more balls cleared the fence that were caught on the track or something his RBI total would have increased by at least 5. Sorry if I took your quote out of context. My point here was that the batting title was very much a close race with Pujols in the very thick of it until late in the season. CarGo got hot, Pujols cooled off, could've happened the other way around and Votto could've gotten the hot hand just as easily as well. That was my only point here. 14 hits, while I'm not saying is easy, was not way out of reach. That's a little more than 2 outs a month that were seeing-eye singles or bloopers or balls on the track with more favorable wind or anything of that nature. That's all I'm saying. 5) Once again I'm sorry if I took your quote out of context or mistook it here. But I still strongly disagree that one statistical outlier of a season (and I don't think I would hardly consider it an outlier) is a strong indicator of regression. Prince Fielder had a much worse statistical '10 than '09 but I don't think it's fair to say he is regressing (though I would agree that bigger guys tend to begin regressing earlier in their career). I think it was much more psychological than abilities or talent. I would also say that one statistical outlier (which I think is much more accurate to say about Votto's '10 season) is not a strong indicator of future consistent success at that same or higher level. 6) When you evaluate the body of work for both players, I don't think Votto is quite the lock to dominate just yet. Very high ceiling, absolutely I agree, but he's not proven at a dominant level yet. At age 27, he has put up one great season of .300+, 30+, 100+. At age 27, Pujols had put up 7 of those seasons. At age 30, he's had 10 of them. I'm not saying Pujols is still 27, but I think it is very safe to say there is probably a 90% chance he does it again in '11. I wouldn't bet the odds of Votto doing it are anywhere near 90%. Pitchers may figure him out this offseason, something psychological may happen, injury, so many things we see all the time. Pujols has been doing this for a decade and nobody has figured him out nor has he showed anything close to significant slowing. Votto certainly has the potential to have as good or even better of a 2011, but he's nowhere near a lock. Votto was the MVP, but I think without question that if the Cardinals had won the division Pujols would've won. He did win the Silver Slugger over Votto and Gold Glove as well. Before you say it, yes I agree that both awards can tend to be reputation-based, but his reputation is certainly not without merit. Defensively, my point was its not even close between Pujols and Votto and I think that is a major factor that can't be overlooked. My whole point is it takes much more than what Pujols put up in '10 to indicate regression and that it takes more than one season of work to put a player in that elite category. I just don't believe that Votto can be put in the Pujols category at present time. Maybe we can revisit this at the end of the year and see how it panned out

Deal.........

[pittsburgher86]

[u]SP
1. Roy Halladay
2. "King" Felix Hernandez
3. Tim Lincecum
4. Josh Johnson
5. CC Sabathia
6. Cliff Lee
7. Jon Lester
8. Matt Cain
9. Adam Wainwright
10. Zack Greinke

RP
I dont know enough about them to make a guess or have an opinion on them.

CP
1. Mariano Rivera
2. Brian Wilson
3. Heath Bell
4. Joakim Soria
5. Neftali Feliz
6. Carlos Marmol
7. Jonathan Papelbon
8. Jose Valverde
9. Andrew Bailey
10. Joe Nathan

C
1. Joe Mauer
2. Brian McCann
3. Yadier Molina
4. Victor Martinez
5. Buster Posey
6. Mike Napoli
7. Geovany Soto
8. Kurt Suzuki
9. Matt Wieters
10. Carlos Ruiz

1B
1. Albert Pujols
2. Adrian Gonzalez
3. Ryan Howard
4. Prince Fielder
5. Mark Teixera
6. Joey Votto
7. Adam Dunn
8. Justin Morneau
9. Miguel Cabrera
10. Kendry Morales

2B
1. Robinson Cano
2. Chase Utley
3. Dustin Pedroia
4. Dan Uggla
5. Brandon Phillips
6. Rickie Weeks
7. Neil Walker
8. Ian Kinsler
9. Brian Roberts
10. Aaron Hill

3B
1. Evan Longoria
2. David Wright
3. Alex Rodriguez
4. Ryan Zimmerman
5. Adrian Beltre
6. Kevin Youklis
7. Martin Prado
8. Aramis Remierez
9. Casey McGehee
10. Pedro Alvarez

SS
1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Jose Reyes
4. Jimmy Rollins
5. Elvis Andrus
6. Derek Jeter
7. Alexie Ramirez
8. Stephen Drew
9. Rafael Furcal
10. Alex Gonzalez

LF
1. Josh Hamilton
2. Carl Crawford
3. Ryan Braun
4. Matt Holliday
5. Delmon Young
6. Jason Bay
7. Brett Gardner
8. Alfonso Soriano
9. Jose Tabata
10. Bobby Abreu

CF
1. Andrew McCutchen
2. Matt Kemp
3. Curtis Granderson
4. Shane Victorino
5. Michael Bourn
6. BJ Upton
7. Vernon Wells
8. Colby Rasmus
9. Torii Hunter
10. Drew Stubbs

RF
1. Ichiro
2. Shin-Soo Choo
3. Carlos Gonzalez
4. Nelson Cruz
5. Jayson Wearth
6. Nick Swisher
7. Andre Eithier
8. Jay Bruce
9. Corey Hart
10. Jose Bautista

I know this probably really wrong...I also know that I probably spelled many names wrong.

[JoeCoolMan24]

Quote: Originally Posted by pittsburgher86

[u]SP 1. Roy Halladay 2. "King" Felix Hernandez 3. Tim Lincecum 4. Josh Johnson 5. CC Sabathia 6. Cliff Lee 7. Jon Lester 8. Matt Cain 9. Adam Wainwright 10. Zack Greinke RP I dont know enough about them to make a guess or have an opinion on them. CP 1. Mariano Rivera 2. Brian Wilson 3. Heath Bell 4. Joakim Soria 5. Neftali Feliz 6. Carlos Marmol 7. Jonathan Papelbon 8. Jose Valverde 9. Andrew Bailey 10. Joe Nathan C 1. Joe Mauer 2. Brian McCann 3. Yadier Molina 4. Victor Martinez 5. Buster Posey 6. Mike Napoli 7. Geovany Soto 8. Kurt Suzuki 9. Matt Wieters 10. Carlos Ruiz 1B 1. Albert Pujols 2. Adrian Gonzalez 3. Ryan Howard 4. Prince Fielder 5. Mark Teixera 6. Joey Votto 7. Adam Dunn 8. Justin Morneau 9. Miguel Cabrera 10. Kendry Morales 2B 1. Robinson Cano 2. Chase Utley 3. Dustin Pedroia 4. Dan Uggla 5. Brandon Phillips 6. Rickie Weeks 7. Neil Walker 8. Ian Kinsler 9. Brian Roberts 10. Aaron Hill 3B 1. Evan Longoria 2. David Wright 3. Alex Rodriguez 4. Ryan Zimmerman 5. Adrian Beltre 6. Kevin Youklis 7. Martin Prado 8. Aramis Remierez 9. Casey McGehee 10. Pedro Alvarez SS 1. Troy Tulowitzki 2. Hanley Ramirez 3. Jose Reyes 4. Jimmy Rollins 5. Elvis Andrus 6. Derek Jeter 7. Alexie Ramirez 8. Stephen Drew 9. Rafael Furcal 10. Alex Gonzalez LF 1. Josh Hamilton 2. Carl Crawford 3. Ryan Braun 4. Matt Holliday 5. Delmon Young 6. Jason Bay 7. Brett Gardner 8. Alfonso Soriano 9. Jose Tabata 10. Bobby Abreu CF 1. Andrew McCutchen 2. Matt Kemp 3. Curtis Granderson 4. Shane Victorino 5. Michael Bourn 6. BJ Upton 7. Vernon Wells 8. Colby Rasmus 9. Torii Hunter 10. Drew Stubbs RF 1. Ichiro 2. Shin-Soo Choo 3. Carlos Gonzalez 4. Nelson Cruz 5. Jayson Wearth 6. Nick Swisher 7. Andre Eithier 8. Jay Bruce 9. Corey Hart 10. Jose Bautista I know this probably really wrong...I also know that I probably spelled many names wrong.

I'm going to try to be nice here, but that's an awful list at a lot of positions.

[pittsburgher86]

Quote: Originally Posted by JoeCoolMan24

I'm going to try to be nice here, but that's an awful list at a lot of positions.

I know that they were probably really wrong, and its probably more of how I feel it should be, is. What positions do you think were the worst?

[CardsGamer5]

This wasn't really meant to start a discussion, it was more of wondering if we'd get previews of the top 10 at each position. Russell said we would, so I'm waiting anxiously for them. Well, that and the demo

[JoeCoolMan24]

Quote: Originally Posted by pittsburgher86

I know that they were probably really wrong, and its probably more of how I feel it should be, is. What positions do you think were the worst?

C, 1B, 2B, and CF stood out to me the most. The other ones aren't that bad, just a little out of order from what I'd expect.