Speed Kills? Can OOTP X Provide the Answer?
Submitted on: 08/26/2009 by
Andrew Watkins
I have been thinking a great deal about speed in sports as of late, and no I am not trying to start a new drugs in sports controversy. The fact of the matter is that I have always been fascinated by the impact of team and individual speed in sports. Urban Meyer has developed the Florida Gators to be the fastest team in the nation, and by doing so he has made the Gators the best and most intimidating team to match up against. Often times it is more daunting to face a team full of jackrabbits than it is to face a team full of grizzly bears. Speed can embarrass people like few other attributes can.
A couple recent events have also renewed my interest in this topic -- the major event being Rickey Henderson’s induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. For those of us who witnessed Rickey in his prime, we can speak first hand about the impact he had on every game he was a part of. He was a disruption like no other. Not only did he steal as many as 130 bases a season, but he messed with every pitcher’s head who was unfortunate enough to be matched up against him. Honestly, how could a pitcher possibly concentrate on the hitter in the batter’s box with Rickey on base?
But it was not Rickey Henderson’s words that prompted me to think about the impact of speed in sports as much as it was Willie Wilson’s comments in the July 27 edition of Sports Illustrated. Wilson, the fleet-footed Kansas City Royals outfielder from the 1970s and '80s, claimed that Henderson’s statistics were inflated due to the fact that he wanted to break records. In contrast, Wilson attests that all he wanted to do was win ball games. The research actually supports Wilson’s claims that he was the superior baserunner but that is well documented elsewhere.
What I was interested in researching was just how much of an impact speed could have on a game, or rather a season, of baseball. I chose baseball because it seemed to be topical, but I plan on testing other sports as well. Moreover, the sport of baseball would allow me to use Out of the Park Baseball 10 as a simulator. As a pure number cruncher, it would be difficult to find a better one than OOTP X.
Methodology
I chose to begin a fictional league in OOTP X using 2009 settings complete with an inaugural draft. The parameters were as follows:
1. I would draft position players with my first three picks (no pitchers until round 4).
2. Every player that I drafted must be both fast and a good baserunner (at least a 15 in each category on a scale of 20 if possible).
3. Every attribute other than speed is secondary. I chose the faster player whenever possible.
4. If no speedy catcher was available, I would draft a slow and very average player later in the draft.
5. The pitchers I drafted would pitch to contact to better take advantage of the expected outstanding fielding range of the position players.
6. The virtual manager was instructed to steal bases and run aggressively.
7. Injuries were turned off.
8. An American League team was used so another player with a set of fleet feet could be inserted into the DH spot.
9. I set the lineup and the pitching staff.
Lineup
The roster ended up looking like something you would find if you rounded up a group of Olympic sprinters (with the exception of the catcher). Of the other eight starters, five were rated as a perfect 20 out of 20 when it came to the ability to steal bases. Not one of these starters was rated below a 17 in this category either. One of the starters was also rated as a 20 out of 20 in speed. A second player was rated as a 19 in speed, while five of the other remaining starters rated as either a 16 or a 17 in speed.
The starting pitchers were comprised of four control pitchers and one flame-thrower who was reputed to hit 98-100 mph on the radar gun. The four control pitchers all topped out in the 87-90 mph range. The bullpen was solid, with only the closer being a real hard thrower.
Predictions
While I would like to believe that Team Speed will put together a solid season, I have trouble envisioning it. The team is devoid of power, players who take walks, players who hit for average and slump-busting pitchers. It looks like it will be a long season in Speedtown.
Results
I was quite surprised by the progression of the season. Right away it was clear that Team Speed was a contender in the American League East. The squad jumped out to an early lead in April, leading by as many as four games, before slumping in late spring. The team fell below .500 in the summer before improving down the stretch. At one point in September, Team Speed trailed the Yankees by a mere two games.
When the season ended, Team Speed was in second place in the AL East, finishing the year with an 84-78 record (four games back of the first-place Yankees). The team was also 6.5 games back in the Wild Card race. I was impressed by the team's resilience and anxious to delve into the statistics.
Statistics
Wow, was this interesting. Here are a few numbers for you to run your eyes over:
The next closest team in the AL was the 74-88 Tigers with 198 steals. The Wild-Card winning Phillies led the NL with 213 stolen bases. Just in case you are wondering, the modern day American League record for team stolen bases is held by the 1976 Oakland Athletics. The '76 Athletics squad stole a whopping 341 bases. I wish my virtual manager had found a way to steal at least 18 more bases, but such is life.
As another reference point, the Vince Coleman led 1985 St. Louis Cardinals stole "only" 314 bases as a team. Seven players from Team Speed stole at least 20 bases, while six players stole at least 30 bases. The top three totals were 61, 59 and 50.
Here are some more numbers:
This was obviously not a team that was good at hitting. In fact you could likely make the argument that the team was inept on this front. Of the nine starting position players, four hit below .250. However, one of those players also stole 41 bases and another stole 31. The only things that this team could do well were put the ball in play and run like the wind.
This was a remarkable byproduct that I did not anticipate. Team Speed was clearly an outstanding defensive team. The players made a grand total of 64 errors throughout the entire season. This is an incredibly small number. The modern-day record for fewest errors in a 162-game season is held by the 2003 Seattle Mariners -- that team committed a scant 65 miscues. We are also talking about a team who had Gold Glove caliber players scattered all over the field in Bret Boone, Mike Cameron, Ichiro Suzuki, John Olerud and Jeff Cirillo.
While sometimes fielding percentage can be misleading, it is not when it comes to Team Speed. Not only did the fielders make all of the plays, but they got to nearly every ball that was put in play. There were players with high fielding-range attributes at nearly every position. Their impact is clearly evident when we look at the pitching statistics.
As mentioned earlier, the pitchers on Team Speed did not exactly live up to their team’s name. Based on their ratings, they were a collection of control pitchers who were mediocre at best. They struck out the third fewest number of batters in the AL, but they walked 150 fewer batters than any team in the junior circuit. It is almost as if they dared the opposition to try to hit the ball past the fleet fielders behind them.
In this sense the OOTP engine seemed to mimic real life perfectly. The pitchers were the ideal staff for this team, and they employed the ideal strategy. It is telling that the "staff ace" and resident fire-baller had the worst ERA on the staff at 5.50. He would have been much more successful had he struck out fewer men (an impressive 215) and just allowed the batters to put the ball in play. As Crash Davis once famously said, "Strikeouts are boring. Besides that, they're fascist."
Conclusion
This investigation is indicative of why I love modern sports games so much. Essentially we can test any theory in virtually any sport by using modern games and simulations.
As an aside, I have long been an apologist for mistakes made by real-life general managers. They have a difficult job and are under enormous pressure to produce. That being said, it is difficult to apologize for them much longer when the keys to success are so clearly apparent to modern-day gamers who are also well educated in sports.
How can I possibly apologize for general managers who appear to have no plan in place? Take a closer look at the reign of Toronto Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi as an example. I will no longer apologize for this man when one can so easily build a winner by conceiving of a plan and sticking to it. The plan does not have to be about team speed necessarily, but one has to have some idea of how he or she intends to compete. Billy Beane’s Moneyball philosophies were the polar opposite to the mantra of Team Speed, but at least it was a plan.
There are obvious holes in this study. Only one season was simulated, ballpark effects were not taken into consideration, and we do not have to manage personalities in the OOTP universe like we would have to in real life. There are certainly dozens of additional variables that we would have to account for to make this a reliable and valid study. Nevertheless, it would be foolish to ignore the findings. Clearly speed does have an impact in baseball. Moreover, it is clear that speed actually has a profound impact on the game. If we were to replace two of the weaker hitters in this lineup with middle of the order boppers, Team Speed would certainly have been a playoff team. Considering the fact that one of these boppers could also serve as the designated hitter, means the effects on the defense would be negligible.
In theory this type of team would not even be that difficult to build. By drafting athletes instead of polished players, a MLB team could conceivably develop a stable full of fast individuals who would constantly pressure the opposition. The law of averages also states that some of these players would further hone their skills and become excellent baseball players. In fact the Montreal Expos used to employ just this strategy and got very good results with it.
So isn't it time for another MLB team to try this again?
A couple recent events have also renewed my interest in this topic -- the major event being Rickey Henderson’s induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. For those of us who witnessed Rickey in his prime, we can speak first hand about the impact he had on every game he was a part of. He was a disruption like no other. Not only did he steal as many as 130 bases a season, but he messed with every pitcher’s head who was unfortunate enough to be matched up against him. Honestly, how could a pitcher possibly concentrate on the hitter in the batter’s box with Rickey on base?
But it was not Rickey Henderson’s words that prompted me to think about the impact of speed in sports as much as it was Willie Wilson’s comments in the July 27 edition of Sports Illustrated. Wilson, the fleet-footed Kansas City Royals outfielder from the 1970s and '80s, claimed that Henderson’s statistics were inflated due to the fact that he wanted to break records. In contrast, Wilson attests that all he wanted to do was win ball games. The research actually supports Wilson’s claims that he was the superior baserunner but that is well documented elsewhere.
What I was interested in researching was just how much of an impact speed could have on a game, or rather a season, of baseball. I chose baseball because it seemed to be topical, but I plan on testing other sports as well. Moreover, the sport of baseball would allow me to use Out of the Park Baseball 10 as a simulator. As a pure number cruncher, it would be difficult to find a better one than OOTP X.
Methodology
I chose to begin a fictional league in OOTP X using 2009 settings complete with an inaugural draft. The parameters were as follows:
1. I would draft position players with my first three picks (no pitchers until round 4).
2. Every player that I drafted must be both fast and a good baserunner (at least a 15 in each category on a scale of 20 if possible).
3. Every attribute other than speed is secondary. I chose the faster player whenever possible.
4. If no speedy catcher was available, I would draft a slow and very average player later in the draft.
5. The pitchers I drafted would pitch to contact to better take advantage of the expected outstanding fielding range of the position players.
6. The virtual manager was instructed to steal bases and run aggressively.
7. Injuries were turned off.
8. An American League team was used so another player with a set of fleet feet could be inserted into the DH spot.
9. I set the lineup and the pitching staff.
Lineup
The roster ended up looking like something you would find if you rounded up a group of Olympic sprinters (with the exception of the catcher). Of the other eight starters, five were rated as a perfect 20 out of 20 when it came to the ability to steal bases. Not one of these starters was rated below a 17 in this category either. One of the starters was also rated as a 20 out of 20 in speed. A second player was rated as a 19 in speed, while five of the other remaining starters rated as either a 16 or a 17 in speed.
The starting pitchers were comprised of four control pitchers and one flame-thrower who was reputed to hit 98-100 mph on the radar gun. The four control pitchers all topped out in the 87-90 mph range. The bullpen was solid, with only the closer being a real hard thrower.
Predictions
While I would like to believe that Team Speed will put together a solid season, I have trouble envisioning it. The team is devoid of power, players who take walks, players who hit for average and slump-busting pitchers. It looks like it will be a long season in Speedtown.
Results
I was quite surprised by the progression of the season. Right away it was clear that Team Speed was a contender in the American League East. The squad jumped out to an early lead in April, leading by as many as four games, before slumping in late spring. The team fell below .500 in the summer before improving down the stretch. At one point in September, Team Speed trailed the Yankees by a mere two games.
When the season ended, Team Speed was in second place in the AL East, finishing the year with an 84-78 record (four games back of the first-place Yankees). The team was also 6.5 games back in the Wild Card race. I was impressed by the team's resilience and anxious to delve into the statistics.
Statistics
Wow, was this interesting. Here are a few numbers for you to run your eyes over:
- 324 stolen bases as a team, 101 caught stealing (76 percent success rate)
The next closest team in the AL was the 74-88 Tigers with 198 steals. The Wild-Card winning Phillies led the NL with 213 stolen bases. Just in case you are wondering, the modern day American League record for team stolen bases is held by the 1976 Oakland Athletics. The '76 Athletics squad stole a whopping 341 bases. I wish my virtual manager had found a way to steal at least 18 more bases, but such is life.
As another reference point, the Vince Coleman led 1985 St. Louis Cardinals stole "only" 314 bases as a team. Seven players from Team Speed stole at least 20 bases, while six players stole at least 30 bases. The top three totals were 61, 59 and 50.
Here are some more numbers:
- .261 batting average (worst in the AL, second worst in the majors)
- .325 on-base percentage (worst in the majors)
- .368 slugging percentage (worst in the majors –- no other team was below .400)
- .693 on-base plus slugging (not surprisingly, worst in the majors)
- 67 home runs (worst in the majors -- only the Mariners also hit less than 100 home runs as a team (94). The AL team average was about 170.)
- 693 runs (worst in the majors –- no other team scored less than 743 runs)
- 921 strikeouts (second fewest in the majors –- clearly the players got the memo and put the ball in play to better utilize their speed)
This was obviously not a team that was good at hitting. In fact you could likely make the argument that the team was inept on this front. Of the nine starting position players, four hit below .250. However, one of those players also stole 41 bases and another stole 31. The only things that this team could do well were put the ball in play and run like the wind.
- .989 Fielding Percentage (best in baseball)
This was a remarkable byproduct that I did not anticipate. Team Speed was clearly an outstanding defensive team. The players made a grand total of 64 errors throughout the entire season. This is an incredibly small number. The modern-day record for fewest errors in a 162-game season is held by the 2003 Seattle Mariners -- that team committed a scant 65 miscues. We are also talking about a team who had Gold Glove caliber players scattered all over the field in Bret Boone, Mike Cameron, Ichiro Suzuki, John Olerud and Jeff Cirillo.
While sometimes fielding percentage can be misleading, it is not when it comes to Team Speed. Not only did the fielders make all of the plays, but they got to nearly every ball that was put in play. There were players with high fielding-range attributes at nearly every position. Their impact is clearly evident when we look at the pitching statistics.
- 4.25 ERA (second in the AL)
As mentioned earlier, the pitchers on Team Speed did not exactly live up to their team’s name. Based on their ratings, they were a collection of control pitchers who were mediocre at best. They struck out the third fewest number of batters in the AL, but they walked 150 fewer batters than any team in the junior circuit. It is almost as if they dared the opposition to try to hit the ball past the fleet fielders behind them.
In this sense the OOTP engine seemed to mimic real life perfectly. The pitchers were the ideal staff for this team, and they employed the ideal strategy. It is telling that the "staff ace" and resident fire-baller had the worst ERA on the staff at 5.50. He would have been much more successful had he struck out fewer men (an impressive 215) and just allowed the batters to put the ball in play. As Crash Davis once famously said, "Strikeouts are boring. Besides that, they're fascist."
Conclusion
This investigation is indicative of why I love modern sports games so much. Essentially we can test any theory in virtually any sport by using modern games and simulations.
As an aside, I have long been an apologist for mistakes made by real-life general managers. They have a difficult job and are under enormous pressure to produce. That being said, it is difficult to apologize for them much longer when the keys to success are so clearly apparent to modern-day gamers who are also well educated in sports.
How can I possibly apologize for general managers who appear to have no plan in place? Take a closer look at the reign of Toronto Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi as an example. I will no longer apologize for this man when one can so easily build a winner by conceiving of a plan and sticking to it. The plan does not have to be about team speed necessarily, but one has to have some idea of how he or she intends to compete. Billy Beane’s Moneyball philosophies were the polar opposite to the mantra of Team Speed, but at least it was a plan.
There are obvious holes in this study. Only one season was simulated, ballpark effects were not taken into consideration, and we do not have to manage personalities in the OOTP universe like we would have to in real life. There are certainly dozens of additional variables that we would have to account for to make this a reliable and valid study. Nevertheless, it would be foolish to ignore the findings. Clearly speed does have an impact in baseball. Moreover, it is clear that speed actually has a profound impact on the game. If we were to replace two of the weaker hitters in this lineup with middle of the order boppers, Team Speed would certainly have been a playoff team. Considering the fact that one of these boppers could also serve as the designated hitter, means the effects on the defense would be negligible.
In theory this type of team would not even be that difficult to build. By drafting athletes instead of polished players, a MLB team could conceivably develop a stable full of fast individuals who would constantly pressure the opposition. The law of averages also states that some of these players would further hone their skills and become excellent baseball players. In fact the Montreal Expos used to employ just this strategy and got very good results with it.
So isn't it time for another MLB team to try this again?
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