Wednesday, September 5, 2012
10:27 AM - September 5, 2012. Written by jmik58
Does Peyton Manning need a knockdown count?
The Denver Broncos may very well win the AFC West, but if they ran their organization similar to that of the Washington Nationals, Manning would never see a single snap in the latter parts of the season. Following successful Tommy John surgery to repair ligaments in star pitcher Stephen Strasburg's elbow, the 'Nats have threatened an innings limit that is sure to be met before the end of the month -- far before the playoffs begin for the team with the best record in baseball.
Manning -- the Broncos' most prized commodity -- is looking to rejoin the NFL as one of its elite quarterbacks despite a serious neck injury that sidelined him for all of the 2011 season. But could you imagine Peyton Manning leading the Denver Broncos to a 10-3 start only to have John Elway call for him to be benched because he was taking too many hits?
Sure, the comparison isn't exactly analogous. Strasburg is in the beginning stages of his career while Manning is shooting for one last championship. From a business standpoint they are two different types of assets. Strasburg's value is in the long-term while Manning's is immediate.
But how often do you get a serious chance at a professional sports championship?
There is no guarantee that the Washington Nationals will ever put together another regular season like this during Strasburg's career with the club. It's hard to speculate something that doesn't happen, but assuming the decision to sit him prevents another big injury and keeps him at elite pitching status, that doesn't guarantee the team will have another year like this one. In other words, what will the Nationals have to say for themselves ten years from now when they have a healthy Strasburg but no playoff or championship appearances?
Is their goal to have a healthy Strasburg or to reward their fans? If scientific research data or MRI results showed Strasburg was on the verge of another injury, then such a decision would hold more credibility. But at this point the decision looks to be simply a dollars and cents one -- business number one, fans second.
That's one message that wouldn't fly in the NFL with the fans or the players. Neither would allow it.
Imagine Adrian Peterson and the Vikings on the verge of a playoff birth this year (key word imagine) only to have his carries capped at 300 for the year. Or what if Mario Williams was capped at 40 quarters of action? Perhaps Kansas City should limit the carries of Jamaal Charles or the number of times Eric Berry hits the field.
The players wouldn't let it happen. They know their careers are short and injuries can happen at any time. They want to play so badly and crave the competition. The fans also know they deserve to support and cheer for a winner when all the pieces are in place.
The Nationals are planning for next year -- a philosophy that Chicago Cubs fans have become accustomed to. "Next year" -- a phrase used by fans who have given up hope or want to forget the memories of what could have been.
Professional football is the most popular sport in America. From marketing, to the on-field product, and finishing with the fan experience -- the NFL is getting it right. Baseball is struggling to keep pace and stories like this do little to help the game.
At rare times in life is it justifiable to act in fear of failure or calamity. In sports it's much the same -- you play to win instead of playing not to lose.
The Nationals don't get that. This decision epitomizes the overly conservative, sometimes backwards, unhitch-the-plow-for-the-sake-of-progression way of thinking in the MLB. Major League Baseball has an All-Star game with World Series implications, a replay system inferior to that of Little League Baseball, and now one of their greatest assets and stories will be nothing more than a coulda-been.
Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. Follow him on Twitter: @long_snapper.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
10:25 AM - September 4, 2012. Written by jmik58
If you gauge week one of the college football season as the most important then Michigan's season is over. Everything they worked for in the offseason has been smashed at the hands of the Alabama Crimson Tide. In other words, the rest of the nation still doesn't deserve a place at the table with the SEC's elite.
The Wolverines' 41-14 shellacking at the hands of Alabama certainly stung, but the reality is that their season is far from over. In the game of football week one is simply a baseline from which to discover team strengths and weaknesses. The improvement from the first to second weeks, or lack thereof, is the most crucial aspect of the season.
Rarely is there a week one loss that can't be recovered from for national championship contenders. In the world of polls and the BCS it's actually more beneficial if you lose early compared to later in the season. But win or lose, teams must grow in their second game or the season can spiral out of control.
Here are five winners and losers from week one of the college football season.
FIVE TEAMS ON THE RISE
BYU (1-0)
Week 1: Washington State, won 30-6.
Week 2: Weber State (0-1)
- Wazzu started the game with more rushing yards (0) than they finished (-5). Even more impressive, however, was that BYU held Mike Leach's pass-happy squad to only 229 yards through the air. BYU looked very balanced on offense as well, throwing for 303 yards and gaining 123 on the ground.
Week 1: California, won 31-24.
Week 2: South Florida (1-0)
- It wasn't that the Wolfpack dominated Cal, but they looked equally as good -- something you don't expect against a solid PAC-12 team. Despite penalty issues, Nevada racked up 230 passing and 220 rushing yards on the day. Next week's USF contest instantly appears to be an exciting matchup.
Week 1: Kentucky, won 32-14.
Week 2: Missouri State (0-1)
- Louisville confirmed their preseason hype and top-25 billing by thumping the rival Wildcats with ease. Being from the SEC isn't enough to guarantee competence, but the Wildcats certainly are no slouch. Week two will do little to test the Cardinals but instead may provide a chance to work on aspects of the offense and defense that will be important moving forward.
Week 1: Southern Mississippi, won 49-20.
Week 2: UCLA (1-0)
- Many won't be impressed by this win, but Southern Mississippi is a very quality team -- the type of team that likes to mess up championship dreams before they even start. The Golden Eagles did rack up almost 150 rushing yards, but that figure looks less dangerous when considering it was on nearly 50 attempts. Nebraska amassed 632 yards total, led by five Taylor Martinez passing scores.
Week 1: Auburn, won 26-19.
Week 2: Ball State (1-0)
- Defense? Who plays defense in the ACC? If week one tells us anything, apparently the answer is Clemson. Without playmaker Sammy Watkins, the Clemson Tigers had to buckle down and depend on smart decisions from quarterback Tajh Boyd to go with 236 yards on the ground from Andre Ellington. As good as Ellington looked, the Clemson defense was the shocker on the day -- allowing a single touchdown in the first quarter and only four field goals after that. Defense certainly wins championships and this game was a big statement from Clemson, but can they back it up?
Pittsburgh (0-1)
Week 1: Youngstown State, lost 31-17.
Week 2: Cincinnati (0-0)
- Who saw this one coming? Youngstown State certainly is no slouch in the FCS realm, but the head coaching carousel at Pitt is really starting to show its wear. The Panthers have a significant collection of talent and must regroup quickly as they have a Thursday night matchup with conference foe Cincinnati.
Week 1: #24 Boise State, won 17-13.
Week 2: Central Michigan (1-0)
- The Spartans may have beaten the twenty-fourth ranked team in the nation, but they nearly beat themselves. It's no secret that this year's Broncos team lacks significant talent and experience and it showed on the field against Michigan State. Unfortunately for the Spartans they couldn't reflect their dominance on the scoreboard. MSU looked like a team in search of an identity and nearly lost the game in an attempt to build confidence in new quarterback Andrew Maxwell (3 interceptions). Sparty went back to the run to win the game but they'll have to find some passing consistency if they want to win the Big-Ten.
Week 1: San Jose State, won 20-17.
Week 2: Duke (1-0)
- It's going to take a little while before the Andrew Luck comparisons stop and a three-point victory over San Jose State isn't going to do much to help. Josh Nunes certainly deserves time to develop, but 16-26 passing for 125 yards isn't enough to carry a top-25 team. The Cardinal need to make sure they improve immensely this week in practice as Duke is off an impressive showing against FIU.
Week 1: Northern Iowa, won 26-21.
Week 2: Oregon State (0-0)
- The Missouri Valley Conference from the FCS division of college football wasn't very kind to their FBS brethren this week. Youngstown State smashed Pitt and Northern Iowa almost turned in an Appalachian State over Michigan type of upset (on the anniversary date nonetheless). The Badgers look a lot like the Spartans in their attempt to find an identity with a new quarterback at the helm, but the Panthers of UNI also made Montee Ball look pedestrian while shredding Wisconsin through the air on the arm of Sawyer Kollmorgen. The Badgers need to find their ground dominance and some pass defense if they want to survive the Big-Ten schedule.
Week 1: Vanderbilt, won 17-13.
Week 2: East Carolina (1-0)
- Like South Carolina, the Commodores could very well make a bowl game t his year. The Gamecocks just weren't prepared to be equaled by Vanderbilt on the field this soon. Vandy passed for nearly 300 yards while South Carolina totaled a mere 67. Marcus Lattimore looked impressive and started a theme of top-tier teams struggling to throw the ball only to have stud halfbacks carry the team to victory. Steve Spurrier, however, must find a way to balance out the offense if they want to live up to their top-ten projection.
Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. Follow him on Twitter: @long_snapper
Friday, August 31, 2012
Week one of the 2012 college football season is upon us. For most that means an important void is finally filled after months of emptiness. For you, however, it's even more.
To go along with our beloved sport, I present to you the first ever Two-Minute Drill -- a weekly rundown of randawesomeness relating to all things college football. Once you've gone through a week with the TMD at your side, you may be asking yourself, "How did I ever enjoy the college football season without this perfect marriage of blog and sport?"
What's important isn't that you answer that question -- the TMD would rather you didn't -- but simply that you enjoy the short ride. According to (hopefully) reputable internet sources, the average person can read 400 words in a two-minute span with 60% comprehension.
Spare me 120 seconds of your day and I'll give you three-out-of-five things worth remembering. Welcome to the Two-Minute Drill.
PREDICTABLE PICKABILITY
Without any predictions to reflect on from the previous week in football I'm happy to report I still have a zero in the "Big Miss" column. To make up for that, let's get one thing out of the way: Michigan State is going to beat Boise State by at least fourteen points. That feels better, now there's some tension in the room.
Michigan versus Alabama is clearly the biggest matchup of week one, but the MSU and BSU contest will be more revealing. The Broncos have unremarkable talent and the worst collection of experience in the Chris Petersen era. After Friday night we'll see that Boise really is that average this year.
Two teams that are anything but average this year, however are the aforementioned Crimson Tide and Wolverines. What many forget is Nick Saban has an offensive philosophy that reflects that of traditional B1G teams. The Tide will ground and pound the Wolverines in an attempt to wear them down -- the real difference-maker in the game. Alabama has seen speed and Denard Robinson brings nothing new. Tide over the Wolverines by 11.
Three more picks: Clemson by eight over Auburn, Louisville downs Kentucky by twelve, and Virginia Tech takes down Georgia Tech by four points.
'CUZ I'VE GOT A GOLDEN TICKET
Put a little variety in your life, would you? Take a road trip, see a team in a different stadium that you normally wouldn't. Heck, at least change the channel and watch a MAC game once in a while. Three "Cheap Ticket" games of the week:
- Elon @ North Carolina -- $22
- Western Michigan @ Illinois - $8
- Toledo @ Arizona - $15
TMD's College Football Meme-of-the-Week: Fun with the SEC
NO REALLY, IT'S BROKEN DOWN INTO STEPS
For those of us who have ever graced the field as an overweight lineman, you know all about the "lineman jog." The one where you shuffle your feet, swing your arms fast, and emote great pain with facial expressions. In case you forgot, or want to give it a try, there's a wikiHow page for that.
ONE, TWO, THREE...
In last night's UCLA vs. Rice game, horrible special teams and extreme turns in momentum made it hard to settle in and grasp the flow of the game. Rice linebacker Cameron Nwosu became the first player ever to block three extra points in one half but was outdone by the offense of UCLA. The Bruins led 35 to 24 at halftime, but it's how they scored that was most ridiculous. UCLA connected on three scoring plays of 70+ yards -- all before the first half. Naturally, no one scored in the third quarter.
GOAT OF THE WEEK
Notre Dame radio commentator Allen Pinkett will get to enjoy the beauty of an Irish game from other-than-the-pressbox this Saturday thanks to his comment that criminals make better football players. Is that why the SEC is so...well-behaved?
MARSHALL IS RUNNING THE WRONG WAY!
It took one game to get our first amazing on-field moment, but it wasn't exactly the spectacular as much as it was of the head-scratchable variety. Kent State's Andrew Parker fielded a muffed punt and promptly ran nearly fifty yards in the wrong direction [Video: Deadspin]. If that's not hilarious enough, a Towson player ran him down to tackle and "prevent" him from scoring a safety -- for Towson.
The comparison that comes to mind is that of the 1964 Jim Marshall incident [Video: YouTube]. At least the Towson player was nice enough to stop him short of the endzone, even if the ball was dead by rule considering muffed punts can't be advanced -- or retreated.
LONG SNAPPER SPOTLIGHT
Welcome to the caboose of TMD's college football train. Whether for good or bad, long snappers need lovin' too. Unfortunately for our not-so-elite fraternity, this week's spotlight doesn't exactly get off on the right foot.
Kansas Jayhawks long snapper Justin Carnes was arrested for DWI this past Saturday and has been suspended for the team's first three games. If Allen Pinkett speaks the truth then Carnes may be the best at his position in the entire nation.
Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. Follow him on Twitter: @long_snapper
Thursday, August 30, 2012
10:44 AM - August 30, 2012. Written by jmik58
The day has finally arrived. College football is back.
For many, the season itself is the most exciting aspect that trumps the destination -- a national championship. Maybe it's deep philosophical thought to focus on the journey, or perhaps it's a defeatist attitude considering the SEC's dominance of six-in-a-row national championships. Regardless of the reason, this year looks to provide little relief from SEC teams as five squads (LSU, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, and Arkansas) have all found themselves in the preseason top-15 of some polls.
I've contemplated some of the teams with the best chance to end the SEC's streak this year, but one thought still remains. Maybe it's the love of story that makes me think this, but if the SEC is going to lose it's place atop the national landscape I want to see them go down with a dog in the fight.
Sure, the regular season gives SEC teams ample opportunity to stake their place in the conversation for the top two. Except, unlike every other conference in the nation, SEC teams have to run a gauntlet through their regular season. A two-loss SEC champion would have a serious argument that they may deserve an appearance in the national championship game.
And think of it now, if two non-SEC tams face off in the title game this year many fans and some experts will likely claim that it proves very little considering the national champion didn't beat an SEC team head-to-head for the crown.
Do we really want that? Shouldn't we look for a clean break if an end is coming to the SEC's streak? I'm tired of asterisks in sports and that scenario screams for a footnote.
Bottom line though, to be the best you have to beat the best -- on the same field at the same time.
Nearly everyone wants to see David beat Goliath. But if Goliath is sitting at home instead of standing in the ring we may lose out on what should be the pinnacle of the college football season.
Sound Off: Does the SEC champion deserve an automatic spot in the national championship game?
Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. Follow him on Twitter @long_snapper.
Wednesday, August 29, 2012
Baseball is a game heavy on unwritten rules, but one of them may need some attention before a player is seriously injured -- or worse.
St. Louis Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina became the latest casualty of the MLB's most dangerous live-action aspect this side of a 100-MPH pitch to the temple. In the bottom of the second inning in last night's contest against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Molina received a throw from outfielder Carlos Beltran to nab Josh Harrison at the plate for the final out.
Unfortunately for Molina and the Cardinals, Harrison's momentum caught one of the game's best backstops off-guard and square in the head, neck and shoulder. Watching the game live, there was no way Molina should have maintained consciousness throughout the blow, let alone the ball -- he somehow did both.
It's a well-known fact that hitters should never stop on the mound when crossing back to the dugout after an out at first base -- just one of the many unwritten rules of baseball. It was also expected that Harrison would get plunked by Cardinals pitcher Jake Westbrook later in the game -- and he did. Not because Harrison's collision with Molina was a dirty play, but simply because that's just the way it is in baseball.
The "good ol' days" have been an excuse for many things that have held back baseball from matching the progressive nature of other major sports like that of the NFL. Replay expansion has been a slow and laborious process in baseball -- a sport seemingly run by purists.
But that same attitude is one of the major reasons the NFL finds itself in a world of hurt as the concussion lawsuits are flying in and the MLB may be next.
Last year it was Buster Posey's ankle disconnecting from nearly every possible spot, now Molina has a banged-up neck, shoulder, probably back, and who knows what else -- don't be surprised if he suffered some form of concussion. Perhaps it's time Major League Baseball took a step to fix a rule before major litigation strikes -- before someone gets seriously hurt.
The game's brightest stars at catcher are putting their careers and well-being on the line to make sure runners aren't safe at home. Collisions at home aren't necessary and they aren't good for the game. It's time for baseball to throw the old ways out so human beings can remain safe.
Sound Off: Do home-plate collisions belong in baseball? What about other unwritten rules of the game?
Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. Follow him on Twitter @long_snapper.
Tuesday, August 28, 2012
Being a play-by-play announcer or color commentator would be a dream job for thousands of football fans across America.
Chances are many of us would be exposed as the amateurs we truly are if we had the chance to call a game live. In reality we'll likely never find out how it would go, but if karma had it's way our skills wouldn't be the only thing getting in the way.
As the United States has become more of a melting pot, so too has the wide range of multicultural names made it into our lives and sports we love. Without the help of a trusty spotter in the broadcast booth we would likely screw up a few calls, and very well could mess up a few names regardless. But even with us out of the booth and the true professionals in our place, a few football players are waiting in the program guide -- prowling in the nightmares of television and radio commentators preparing to pounce and make fools out of even the best men in the booth.
Our immature humor can't help but let a chuckle fly or jump at the opportunity to carry an emphatic syllable a little too far just because it's fun to say a certain name that certain way. Here are the best names in college football for 2012.
Munchie Legeaux, QB Cincinnati
It probably doesn't matter what your last name is when your first is Munchie. I'm only upset we can't put his first name on the back of his jersey instead.
Caleb TerBush, QB Purdue
Ok, ok, it's not what you think. Once your done snickering, consider this. One of his targets at wide receiver is Gary Bush. "TerBush to Bush for the touchdown!" Say that four times, fast. I said only four.
Lache Seastrunk, HB Baylor
I don't know the first thing about automotive repair, so if you told me my loud muffler was caused by a Lache Seastrunk -- I would honestly have to read your facial expression. Now that I think about it, wasn't the Seastrunk a WWE finishing move?
Bishop Sankey, HB Washington
I love a good name that incorporates a professional title, especially one with the high esteem of a Bishop. Sankey sounds pretty cool too.
Rahsaan Vaughn, WR Oregon
This is Michael Buffer's favorite college football name to announce. If I'm ever stupid enough to step into a boxing ring I think I'll change my fighter name to his. Rahsaaaaaaaan Vaaaaaaaaaughnnnnn.
Uzoma Nwachukwu, WR Texas A&M
Whether you're excited or really upset, here's a name you can scream. Nwachukwu could be substituted as a verb, noun, or adjective. More preferably it works well to replace that foul mouth when your favorite team's quarterback throws his third pick of the half. Nuh-wa-chuh-KOO!
Philip Lutzenkirchen, TE Auburn
Lutz and Kirken was a famous progressive band from the late '70's with hits such as...well, such as. Ok, so maybe they never existed but this has to be one of the baddest (by bad, i mean good) names in the whole world. Philip is a pretty darn good tight end as well.
Gifford Timothy, OL Clemson
Did someone screw up the birth certificate and switch around the first and last names? I guess if I had a first name for a last name I'd have to get creative when naming my kids. I don't know about Gifford though. I know, how about Lutzenkirchen Timothy?
Omoregie Uzzi, OL Georgia Tech
I don't care what the phonetics say, I'm pronouncing it "oozy." After all, he is a highly decorated collegiate lineman with All-American accolades. As a Yellowjacket lineman he's the master of the cut block, and nothing cuts guys down like an uzi.
Mister Cobble, DL Kentucky
No really, don't call me by my first name, please refer to me as Mr. Cobble. Seriously though, who wants to hear the P.A. announcer proclaim to thousands of screaming fans that you just got sacked by "Mister Cobble" -- really? That was my middle school janitor's name.
Steve Bigach, DL Iowa
When you look at his name it seems pretty harmless. When pronounced correctly, however, it provides the sudden burst of power necessary to bust through thirteen inches of solid concrete. "BIG-ack!" is a distant relative of the North American Big Yak -- according to sources. Whether that's true or not, Bigach is still a heck of a lot of fun to say.
Michael Doctor, LB Oregon State
Please tell me he's a pre-med student. No? Oh well, at least he's exceptional at diagnosing plays and cuts through the line with surgical precision when blitzing.
Douglas Rippy, LB Colorado
His swim move isn't the greatest but he can dip and rip on the edge with the best of them. Actually Rippy is one heck of a middle linebacker and finds himself on the Butkus watch list -- believe it or not.
Antone Exum, CB Virginia Tech
If you want to be a shutdown corner, you might as well be someone that can "ex 'em" out. Ya I know, corny. So what if my jokes are a little Hokie sometimes. Ah, see what I did there?
Bacarri Rambo, FS Georgia
Probably the best on-field player on this list, Rambo is a near cross between a fruity female alcoholic beverage and a classic dude-movie. Maybe it's the two extremes that balance him out to be such a phenomenal all-around player. But how else are you going to get your lady to watch another Stallone movie with you?
Will Hagerup, K Michigan
When you get bucked, cowboy up! When you get stuffed on third-and-one and are left with a thirty-five yard field goal -- Hagerup!
Jordan Wettstein, P Minnesota
Some see the glass as half full, others half empty. I just hope my stein isn't dry. Thank you, Jordan.
What are some of your favorite player names in college football this year?
Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. Follow him on Twitter @long_snapper.
Saturday, August 25, 2012
When the Downtown Athletic Club presented their inaugural award (known as the DAC trophy) it was an exclusive piece of hardware given to the best player east of the Mississippi River.
The name of the immortalized stiff-arm structure has since changed to the Heisman trophy and all FBS college football players are eligible regardless of geography -- but an exclusive element still exists.
At the core, the Heisman trophy stands as the ultimate symbol of excellence and outstanding performance. In reality, however, its voters have struggled to assign the award to anyone not lined up in the offensive backfield. And as humans hungry for a good story, these same members have become enraptured by the novelty of new faces and uplifting back-stories. Playing for a national championship contender never hurts either.
We all have our favorites to win and feel we know the correct criteria by which to evaluate but ultimately don't have much of a say. Despite how things unfold the season must go on and the awards will still be engraved. We have to accept the flaws of the Heisman system like anything in life and move on.
But just so we're all prepared, here are the top seven players with a realistic shot at the Heisman in 2012.
7. E.J. Manuel, QB Florida State
The Seminoles are becoming a big favorite of many to earn a birth into the national championship game. The ACC hasn't built a reputation for exceptional depth and a lack of serious competition could elevate the 'Noles to an undefeated regular season. If you're in a BCS conference and you pull off an undefeated regular season, book your spot for an appearance at the Heisman trophy presentation.
6. Geno Smith, QB West Virginia
The Sooners are the opening favorites in the Big-12, but this Mountaineers squad is built to impact the conference from day one. In many ways, the best ACC teams are alike that of the Big-12 in regard to potent offense and inconsistent defense. Head coach Dana Holgerson brings experience from his previous stint at Oklahoma State and an upset win or two by the Mountaineers is a serious possibility. Smith already has national notoriety among college football pundits so he won't have to do much besides win to get his name in the Heisman conversation.
5. Marcus Lattimore, HB South Carolina
Other great running backs are hoping for a shot at the Heisman this year but few can boast a national conscience that seems to be hoping for a redemptive season by Lattimore. The Gamecocks halfback had a great start in 2011 before an injury derailed him. Had he stayed healthy it's hard to say how the season would have finished for the other USC. South Carolina is a dark-horse (even as a top-ten preseason squad) in the SEC and an undefeated or one-loss year would guarantee a spot on the final Heisman list for the team's best offensive talent.
4. Denard Robinson, QB Michigan
The Wolverines have made great strides each of the last two years, and the improvement of Robinson has correlated in kind. The Big-10 has lost some of its defensive luster and is in a year of uncertainty as many top teams regroup with new quarterbacks and halfbacks. Michigan should finally have a top-tier defense -- enough to give them a shot at a Big-10 title -- which means a lot of wins and the spotlight on the conference's most explosive playmaker.
3. Landry Jones, QB Oklahoma
Throwing for over 4,300 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2011 should have been enough to get national attention. Unfortunately for Landry Jones, the amazing RG3/Baylor story and unbelievable run by Oklahoma State overshadowed a great season by the returning Sooners' quarterback. As simple as it sounds, wins are all that Jones needs to put his name in the Heisman mix. There's a very good chance that OU could be undefeated with three games to go. If Landry can lead his team through the brutal finale to the regular season he could be hoisting the bronze sculpture in December.
2. Aaron Murray, QB Georgia
In reality, this slot could be renamed "Quarterback of the SEC Champions." Murray is highly regarded as the best signal-caller in the conference and the Bulldogs have the talent and experience to finally dethrone the likes of Alabama, LSU, Auburn, and Florida. If Georgia makes it to the SEC title game it will be due largely to the performance of Murray. In such a devastating league combined with the novelty of a successful year by Georgia -- there's no reason to think the award won't be his if all conditions are met.
1. Matt Barkley, QB USC
This trophy is Matt Barkley's to lose. He has the story -- a lifelong USC fan who even went so far as to proclaim as a child he would one day be the starting quarterback of the Trojans. He has the hearts of the nation -- returning, unselfishly, for his senior year in an attempt to fulfill his dream and help his college when he could have chased the money and turned pro. And he's on the nation's top rated team to start the season. As if that's not enough, he plays for the USC Trojans. If you're a halfback or quarterback for USC and can manage an undefeated or one-loss season -- you're an automatic Heisman finalist.
Sound Off: Set aside who you want to win for a minute -- who do you think will actually win the Heisman in 2012?
Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. Follow him on Twitter @long_snapper
Thursday, August 23, 2012
10:31 AM - August 23, 2012. Written by jmik58
Long before the BCS was acting as an exclusive clubhouse, preseason polls were keeping the little man down in college football.
A fun tool for sports analysts and fans, these speculative lists have come under fire due to their use in the selection of postseason matchups -- especially that of the BCS formula. With a four-team playoff on the horizon for 2014 we won't have to deal with the shenanigans of the BCS much longer, but the preseason polls will linger as the starting point for which all subsequent polls are based throughout the season.
Preseason polls make little sense due to the obvious fact that no teams have played a single game to this point. Any rankings would be based off of last year's results even though the college game has a massive amount of player turnover from year to year. Talent and experience are measurable in less-than-exact terms, but to speculate total team value and wins is pointless when a full season awaits to allow teams to settle the questions on the field.
But do preseason college football polls have some value beyond lighthearted speculation? And more intriguing to me, how accurate are they at predicting end-of-the-year rankings?
I decided to look over the past ten years and compared the AP poll from the preseason and matched that up to the final rankings. I focused only on the finishing spot of the preseason top 15 and gave a value of twenty-six to any team finishing outside the top 25.
The first observation I made is that the average finishing spot of preseason number one and two were the only reliable positions that predicted high finishes at the end of the year. From 2002 through 2011 the average finish of the preseason number one team was 4.8, while number two averages a finish of 5.5. After that, the highest average finish climbed only as high as 12th with the top nine preseason teams being more likely to finish higher than all non-top-nine teams.
In other words, the higher the preseason ranking, the more likely a team is to finish higher than teams who started lower -- only positions one and two, however, seemed to be significant enough when correlating with high end of the year placement.
Outside of those figures I think it may be even more important to see the amount of movement (not just the finishing spot) for each team that started in the top 15. Naturally it's more difficult for teams ranked higher to balance out their averages since they can't finish much higher than their preseason rank, but their burden of maintenance is also higher to go along with expectations.
When looking at the average difference between preseason rankings and final standings the randomness of the results really illuminates how scattered and pointless preseason polls are for predicting future success.
The preseason rankings ranked from best to worst in terms of correlation between preseason and final AP standings were: #15 (-1.4), #13 (-1.7), #2 (-2.8), #11 (-4.3), #1 (-4.5), #8 (-4.5), #12 (-5.0), #14 (-5.2), #9 (-5.7), #7 (-5.8), #6 (-6.0), #5 (-8.7), #4 (-9.0), #3 (-9.3), and #10 (-10.2).
So over the last ten years, voters of the AP preseason college football poll are really good at picking the 15th, 13th, 2nd, 11th, 1st, ... you get the point. Completely scattered.
Another observation is that all of the spots averaged to finish lower than their initial ranking. While I'm not blown away by this, I find it interesting that every single position is overrated. Not a single spot came in as being underestimated. In other words, preseason polls are a big swing-and-miss across the board.
Naturally my next step would be to look over the data and apply it to this year's preseason poll. But unless you buy into random oddities of the results of my study then you probably could deduce as much without the rankings.
Top teams USC and Alabama are more likely to finish in the top five than any other team, but do we really need a preseason poll to tell us that?
Other than that, maybe you're excited to falsely assume that #15 Texas, #13 Michigan State, and #11 West Virginia are more likely to finish close to their preseason rankings than are any other teams besides that of the top two. When you're done buying that ocean-front property in Idaho, put your money down on #10 Arkansas, #4 Oklahoma, and #3 LSU finishing somewhere in the double-digits at best.
It makes about as much sense as letting computers decide who plays for a national championship. Good thing we would never let that happen right?
Sound Off: How do you feel about preseason polls?
Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. Follow him on Twitter @long_snapper or send him a PM with your comments, questions, or future blog ideas.
Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Cinderella is down to her final two BCS dances in college football.
Thanks to the agreement by conference commissioners in June we will have our first four-team playoff and subsequently the end of the BCS in 2014. One of the greatest aspects of college football is that of parity and as much as we love to groan about injustice, the BCS is a system that gives us our underdogs -- or non-BCS teams.
But only two more seasons remain until the term non-BCS is non-existent. As Cinderella settles in for her closing act, who will be the best representative in 2012?
6. Louisiana Tech 8-4 (6-0)
Few teams will have a turnaround season like that of the Bulldogs this year. Four of their opening five games are against the likes of Texas A&M, Houston, Illinois, and Virginia -- leaving the 'Dawgs with what could easily be a 1-4 start. Luckily for Louisiana Tech it doesn't end there. The last hurrah for the WAC should see the conference's most talented offense run away with things -- a guaranteed six wins. If LA Tech can pull victories from the likes of UNLV and Rice they have a good shot at a solid eight-win season.
5. Louisiana 10-2 (8-0)
The Ragin' Cajuns aren't sneaking up on anyone this year after a 9-4 campaign in 2011. The squad returns an impressive nine starters on offense but only four on the defensive side. In non-BCS conferences defense rarely makes as big an impact as the opposite side of the ball which is why i look for Blaine Gautier to sling Louisiana to a conference championship in the Sun Belt. The big test will be a week-two visit to Troy -- the perennial power in the conference. If the Ragin' Cajuns can pull a win there they should be on their way to an undefeated conference slate.
4. Boise State 8-4 (7-1)
Placing the Broncos this low on a list they have defined may be considered blasphemy in some corners of the country. Boise State is good, but are they good enough to overcome only seven returning starters across the entire team? A few key, talented guys return at receiver, offensive line, and linebacker; but with that many question marks I can't say with any confidence it will be another magical year for the Broncos -- they just have too much to prove with new names filling big shoes.
3. Nevada 11-1 (8-0)
The Wolfpack have grown tired of playing second-fiddle to Boise State. A thrilling overtime win to ruin the national title chances of the Broncos in 2010 was a program highlight for head coach Chris Ault, but a 7-6 finish in 2011 was not the catapult response the program had in mind. This year the 'Pack returns six starters on offense and six on defense, led by WAC freshman player of the year, quarterback Cody Fajardo. Nevada boasts a very solid offensive line and the best secondary in the conference -- something that will come in handy for the regular season finale at home against those hated Broncos.
1a. Houston 11-1 (8-0)
Head coach Kevin Sumlin took the money and ran for Texas A&M after last year's 13-1 performance. Tony Levine is the new man in charge, but the results should be much the same as he comes from within the program. The Cougars boast the best returning halfback in the conference in Charles Sims, but a fresh face at quarterback will be the biggest question mark. Houston, however, is full of solid talent and experience and should retain their offensive firepower. The balance of the Cougars should be enough to carry them through a relatively easy schedule. Their week two and three matchups against Louisiana Tech and UCLA, respectively, will likely be the toughest contests of the regular season.
1. UCF 11-1 (8-0)
The Knights will be one of the nation's biggest rebound stories and much of the country sees it coming from a mile away. Tyler Gabbert -- former Mizzou player and brother of Blaine -- will run the show on offense as the UCF quarterback. Running back Storm Johnson is as good as his name implies and receiver Quincy McDuffie is one of the five fastest receivers in the NCAA. Throw in one of Conference-USA's best offensive lines and you have enough for an undefeated conference season. Don't step there, however, as the defensive line is one of CUSA's best as well, while the linebacking corps is the best; complimented by a deep and experienced secondary. A collision course with Houston would likely determine who the true non-BCS champion is of 2012 and the CUSA title game is waiting -- too bad the NCAA levied a one-year postseason ban for the Knights due to recruiting violations and institutional control.
Who are your top non-BCS teams for the 2012 college football season?
Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. Follow him on Twitter @long_snapper or send him a PM with your comments, questions, or future blog ideas.
Monday, August 20, 2012
When the recently-busted Melky Cabrera made the decision to use a banned substance in hopes of boosting his on-field performance, perhaps his error was actually a simple one that many humans make.
Maybe while walking down the hall of his local high school he slipped up and took a left when he should have turned right -- ending up in chemistry class instead of his scheduled mathematics course. Surely that's it. Cabrera just wanted to help his team win. He heard about this great thing called Pythagorean Expectation -- or "P.E." as the kids affectionately refer to it -- and he had to get some.
Unfortunately for Cabrera, it seems as if a strange coincidence occurred where a letter-grade "D" was written inconveniently on his paper next to a note about "P.E." -- leading the troubled youngster to instead chase the truth on P.E.D's straight into the chemistry lab and onto MLB's suspension list.
Had he made it to the correct place he would have been opened up to the world of the more beneficial -- and legal -- Pythagorean Expectation.
Formulated by baseball statistician guru Bill James, P.E. was created to help determine how many games each MLB team should win.
The formula incorporates a team's runs scored, runs allowed, and games played. James' goal: to create a mathematically superior doppelganger for the almighty "win."
To arrive at our assumed win total for a team, the formula requires that a ratio (expressed in decimal form) be multiplied by the total number of games a team has played. Roughly stated, the ratio is formed when the numerator (runs scored) is divided by the denominator (runs scored + runs allowed). Each variable within the formula is also multiplied by an exponent (originally to the power of "2"), but a definitive value has not been reached for what the exponent should be. Nonetheless, many agree on a more complex and statistically accurate method called the Pythagenpat formula to determine the value of the exponent (click here for more details).
But enough of the geeky baseball sabermetric lingo, let's look at how it applies to the teams of the current MLB season.
To use an example from standings on 8/16/12; the Washington Nationals had scored 525 runs, allowed 420 runs, and played 118 games. Incorporating the formula using the Pythagenpat formula (developed by David Smyth) for the exponent value, we arrive at a value of .55556. That value is then multiplied by the number of games the Nationals had played (118) to arrive at our expected win total of 73.81.
By comparison, the Nationals had 73 wins going into 8/16/12, only .81 wins lower than their Pythagorean Expectation (73.81) suggests. In other words, Washington has performed within the expected correlation based on their win total in comparison to James' formula.
As is with any sample size, there will always be outliers at each end of the spectrum. In the realm of P.E. that means clubs will win more than expected while others will under-perform, or lose more than they should.
Sticking with the same date as before (8/16/12), the teams with the largest advantage between actual vs. P.E. wins were: Baltimore (+11.37), Cleveland (+10.60), Miami (+7.02), Pittsburgh (+3.49), and Minnesota (+3.41).
Conversely, the worst offenders that had struggled in the win column versus what their Pythagorean Expectation showed were: St. Louis (-9.97), Boston (-6.73), Arizona (-4.94), Milwaukee (-4.14), and the Chicago White Sox (-3.82).
Before judging the numbers, it's important to note that the average margin of error for the formula is approximately three games over the course of a full 162-game season. In other words, a team with a Pythagorean Expectation of 100 wins should finish with between 97 and 103 wins. On 8/16/12 the league-wide average was approximately -3.98 -- the equivalent of losing four less games than what the Pythagorean Expectation would suggest. This under-performance, however, is still relatively close to the accepted margin of three games.
Based on this information it would be a fair guess to expect that number to shift closer to -3.00 (at the lowest) before the season is finished. For this to happen, teams will have to -- on average -- win more games than their Pythagorean Expectation would suggest for the remainder of the season. In practical terms, expect quality teams with P.E. scores below -3.00 to win more by season's end, or win at the same rate while slacking on their run differential. This means St. Louis (-9.97), Boston (-6.73), Arizona (-4.94), the Chicago White Sox (-3.82), NY Yankees (-3.56), and LA Angels (-3.25) all should win at a higher rate than they have up to this point of the season -- assuming they continue to score runs and allow runs at the same rate.
Conversely, it's realistic to expect teams at the top end to fall as well. If the numbers hold true and the law of averages play out, this spells disaster for Baltimore (+11.37) and could mean that Pittsburgh's (+3.49) recent dance with playoff contention could start to fade. It could also mean these teams continue to win while their run differential shrinks at a faster rate (a situation that seems difficult to accept as realistic).
For a nice example that we can focus on for the remainder of the season, the NL Central provides a great case study in the making. Considering the Pirates and Cardinals were tied in the standings on 8/16/12, James' Pythagorean Expectations suggest that St. Louis has nowhere to go but up and Pittsburgh should slide a little, or hold where they are at best.
As a side note, it's also somewhat comical (and painful) to see teams like Cleveland and Miami have such high P.E. ratings while still sporting unsavory records. Not only have the Indians and Marlins struggled to win games this year, but according to the Pythagorean Expectation each has actually over-performed. Ouch.
As a final observation, it's important to remember that P.E. isn't necessarily a predictive tool as much as it is an after-the-fact assessment measure. Like many of Bill James' statistical creations, Pythagorean Expectation helps to tell a more accurate story of a team's success rather than wins alone -- much the way OPS is widely accepted as a more accurate measure of player skill than that of batting average.
Regardless of best use, the formula has evolved to a point where the margin of error can be used loosely to monitor the law of averages and the subsequent ebb and flow as I did earlier. Whether P.E. accomplishes anything in the way of predicting World Series teams or champions is yet to be studied extensively to my knowledge.
The baseball season will soon climb out of the dog days and into the home stretch for the playoff run. To get there, teams obviously have to win more games than the competition, but keep in mind that the win itself doesn't always tell the story.
A handful of teams on the cusp of the postseason hope this to be true as the season winds down. They also hope their players stay away from chemistry class.
[Click HERE to download the Excel file with Pythagorean Expectation data through 8/16/12]
Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. Follow him on Twitter @long_snapper or send him a PM with your comments, questions, or future blog ideas.
Friday, August 17, 2012
If college football conferences were slow-pitch softball players, the Big East would play catcher. And if they were a part of your family, it would be your middle brother Steve who has lived in your parents' basement for the last twelve years.
But regardless of what you think of Steve, he's still your brother and you still need a catcher.
Love 'em or hate 'em, they're the ignored step-child of the BCS but will always have a spot at the dinner table. Ladies and gentlemen, the Big East.
As much as I want to dive into the Big East in 2012, the reality is that the past and future offer much more excitement than anything the current season can give us for such a wounded conference. Fresh off the departure of West Virginia and the fake-out by TCU, the Big East is in a holdover pattern in wait for next season when the likes of Boise State, San Diego State, SMU, Houston, UCF, and Memphis will join (Navy in 2015). While Temple did fill the numerical void left by West Virginia, no one brags about the addition of a potential last-place team in the last-place BCS conference.
In all fairness, the Big East did go 3-2 in bowl games last season and finished the year with two teams in the Top 25. But can this year's collection of eight make enough noise to justify an automatic placement in a BCS bowl game?
1. Pittsburgh Panthers 11-1 (7-0)
New head coach Paul Chryst (former Wisconsin offensive coordinator) takes over the team I feel has the Big East's most talented offensive and defensive units. The Panthers have gone through more coaching changes than you can count on one hand in the last year, but if any team in America was equipped for such an adjustment, it's this veteran group. Nine starters return on offense led by senior quarterback Tino Sunseri and halfback Ray Graham (1st team Big East).
On the other side of the ball only five men return with significant starts, but talent is littered throughout the depth chart. Led by defensive tackle Aaron McDonald (2nd team Big East) and free safety Jarred Holley (1st team Big East), the defense hopes that the switch to a pro style attack on offense will lead to less time on the field and subsequently better health (30 starts lost to injury in 2011).
2. Rutgers Scarlet Knights 10-2 (6-1)
The coaching carousel continues atop the conference as Greg Schiano bolted for the NFL to take over as head man of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. New head coach Kyle Flood -- a Rutgers assistant since 2007 -- is familiar enough with the program and the switch should be little more than a formality.
Luckily for Flood and Co. the cupboard is anything but empty as the new regime takes over. Seven starters return on offense and eight on the defensive side of the ball. While Pitt may have the most talented defense in the league, that doesn't necessarily translate to guaranteed performance. Rutgers not only has the talent but also has proven their worth with ample amounts of experience back -- see below if they make it in as my pick for best "D" in the conference. Scoring shouldn't be much of a problem either as halfbacks Savon Huggins and Jawan Jamison should provide a dangerous one-two punch for opposing defenses.
Mark your calendars for November 24th as the Scarlet Knights travel to Pitt for what I feel is the de facto Big East championship game.
3. Louisville Cardinals 10-2 (5-2)
Like any sport, sometimes the who is less important than the where -- as in, where the game is played. The Cardinals field coach Charlie Strong's best squad in his third year a the school and Louisville should be on par competitively with the best in the league. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they draw road contests against Pittsburgh mid-season and versus Rutgers to close out the regular season on a Thursday night.
Key performers for Louisville look to be quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, and receivers Eli Rogers and Michaelee Harris on offense. To go along with the offense's seven returning starters, the defensive side returns eight of their own. Led by first-team Big East corner Adrian Bushell and safety Hakeem Smith -- also a first teamer in 2011 -- the Cardinals secondary looks to be the best in the league and should be able to force teams to attempt to beat them on the ground.
4. Cincinnati Bearcats 7-5 (3-4)
While it will be very difficult to replicate their ten-win season of last year, the Bearcats are still talented enough to make noise this year in the Big East. Only four starters return for an offense that will likely struggle early on. The strength of the unit -- offensive line -- should help to temper the growing pains as all-name team Munchie Legaux learns the ropes at quarterback. On defense the 'Cats are more experienced with seven returners back with serious time in 2011, but unfortunately for fans of Cincinnati the talent combination just isn't there. Strong safety Drew Fry returns from a first-team Big East year in '11, but familiar faces will have to find a new gear to balance out the defensive attack.
5. South Florida Bulls 5-7 (3-4)
I typically agree with college football analyst Phil Steele on a lot of areas -- apparently the Big East in 2012 isn't one of them. If you picked up his publication this year you'll notice that his fourth-place prediction (Pitt) for the Big East is my favorite to win it. Additionally, his favorite to win the conference (USF) clearly didn't make the cut on my list as they fall all the way to fifth. A tough non-conference schedule doesn't help matters much, but it's road trips to Louisville and Cincinnati that will truly show how legitimate their run will be this year.
If experience has anything to say about it, Skip Holtz's squad should cause some damage in the Big East this year (8 returning starters on offense, 7 on defense). But it's a lack of talent that has me hesitant to expect much out of this year's Bulls team -- combined with the aforementioned less-than-pleasant schedule. Quarterback B.J. Daniels and receiver Sterling Griffin will do their part to win games, but a lack of playmakers throughout the rest of the offense tear down any real optimism I have for USF in '12.
6. Syracuse Orange 4-8 (2-5)
The first thing that stands out about the 'Cuse in 2012 is their questionable schedule. Someone forgot to mention that the Orange had the option to go with an SEC-like non-conference schedule. Instead, a mediocre Syracuse squad will take on the likes of Northwestern, Minnesota, Southern California, and Missouri out of conference -- at least they get Stony Brook as well. Led by receiver Alec Lemon, Syracuse actually looks dangerous enough to make a push toward bowl eligibility.
The big question -- besides the schedule -- will be how well can the defense perform and will it be enough to force an upset or two? A linebacker corps led by Dyshawn Davis hopes the answer is "yes," but a week one collapse against a down Northwestern squad could hitch a serious plow in the confidence of the Orange.
7. Connecticut Huskies 4-8 (2-5)
As running back Lyle McCombs goes, so will the Huskies. A second-team Big East and freshman All-American last season, McCombs looks to build on his 1,100+ rushing yard campaign. A well-seasoned offensive line unit should help boost the cause, and a veteran defensive unit might be just enough to get the Huskies in bowl contention. The defensive line, linebackers, and secondary return all-conference performers, but untimely matchups with equal foes on the road are just enough to spell disaster and letdowns as the season wears on.
8. Temple Owls 2-8 (0-7)
On the bright side it's a transition year for new member Temple and expectations aren't extremely high. Unfortunately, that's about the only bit of sunshine that Owls fans will get this year. Like any team, an upset or surprise win is always a possibility, but only eight returning starters don't mix well for the first year jump from the MAC to a BCS conference. Not surprisingly, little in the way of talent is available in reference to former highly touted recruits. One man to watch -- and it's hard to miss him -- will be nose tackle Levi Brown. This is a clear rebuilding year, but with approximately half of the team's starters being seniors it's uncertain what next year has in store as well.
Big East Champion
Pittsburgh Panthers
Best Offense
Pittsburgh Panthers
Best Defense
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Offensive Player of the Year
Ray Graham, HB - Pittsburgh Panthers
Defensive Player of the Year
Khaseem Green, LB - Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Coach of the Year
Charlie Strong - Louisville Cardinals
Coach on the Hot Seat
Doug Marrone - Syracuse Orange
Team on the Rise
Pittsburgh Panthers / Louisville Cardinals
Team on the Decline
Temple Owls
Toughest Schedule
Syracuse Orange
Easiest Schedule
Temple Owls
Teams Going Bowling
Pittsburgh Panthers, Rutgers Scarlet Knights, Louisville Cardinals, Cincinnati Bearcats
Sound Off: What are your predictions for the 2012 Big East college football season?
Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. Follow him on Twitter @long_snapper or send him a PM with your comments, questions, or future blog ideas.
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
For a conference that just wants to matter again, the ACC sure looks like a group ready to break out -- at least on paper.
But it's very difficult for the nation to take the ACC seriously when they tout a 2-13 record all-time in BCS bowl games. 2011 wasn't much kinder to the conference as Notre Dame took down all three challengers from the conference and the SEC took three out of four in regular season matchups. Needless to say, the numbers aren't pleasant when comparing the success of ACC teams against the rest of the nation.
While the entire collection of teams that comprise the ACC may not make legitimate noise this year, fans of the conference hope a top-heavy performance will finally earn some respect for its members. The ACC definitely can't brag about depth, but they may not have to. The conference's top teams could be good enough to carry the rest -- something we haven't been able to say for the ACC in several yeras.
Atlantic Division
1. Florida State Seminoles 11-1 (7-1)
Seventeen starters return to a squad that was the victim of premature expectations in 2011. E.J. Manuel will be the face of the team at quarterback and should be supported by an improved running game and a deep collection of talented receivers. Defensive end Brandon Jenkins (1st team All-ACC) leads the best defensive line in the nation that is loaded with talent and experience (9 returning starters). The 'Noles biggest challenge will be a trip to Virginia Tech, but the Hokies are weak up front and will likely fold to the tough pressure of the FSU defense.
2. Clemson Tigers 11-1 (7-1)
Home to my pick for the most talented offense in the nation, Clemson is a must-watch team every single week this year. As long as Tajh Boyd, Andre Ellington, and Sammy Watkins are playing -- your t.v. should be tuned or your DVR set. As much fun as watching high flying offense will be, the linebackers and secondary of the Tigers may be the difference maker in 2012. Clemson only loses a backup linebacker from last year and return seven in the secondary with starting experience.
3. North Carolina State Wolfpack 8-4 (5-3)
If you had to guess how many wins NC State had in 2011, chances are you would miss on the low side. A sneaky eight wins last year should be a real possibility this season thanks to the return of quarterback Mike Glennon and a solid collection of talented players littered throughout the offense.
Improvement is the theme defensively for the Wolfpack as health looks to be the only thing that can hold the team back. Both the defensive line and linebackers are filled with skillful athletes but experience and depth is a question. The secondary, however, is led by David Amerson at cornerback (1st team All-American) and should be one of the best units in the nation.
4. Wake Forest Demon Deacons 5-7 (2-6)
Tanner Price isn't a name you'll hear a lot, but the junior quarterback is one of the top at his position in the ACC. With the help of wideout Michael Campanaro (2nd team All-ACC) the Deacons hope to overcome a serious lack of experience (only four returning starters). The front seven defensively is led by a solid group of upperclassmen and should be stronger throughout. Don't expect a big jump in performance but a friendly schedule could mix well for a shot at bowl eligibility.
5. Boston College Eagles 5-7 (2-6)
If there was any team that wishes they could reconfigure their schedule in the ACC, this might be the team. BC could easily start the year at 3-0, but the rest of the season is filled with home games against much better teams and games away from home against teams good enough to trip up the Eagles. Offensively, ten returning starters are the selling point for the contrary to my prediction -- led by quarterback Chase Rettig. The defensive side of the ball carries a little more talent than that of the offense, but will it be enough to pull off an upset to get BC bowl eligible?
6. Maryland Terrapins 3-9 (1-7)
Many felt that Randy Edsall's success at Connecticut was more luck than skill and used his horrible first year at Maryland as proof. Perhaps fans should give the new coach a year or two more before deciding if he was the right decision, but 2012 doesn't look like it's going to be a feather in the cap for Edsall's career either. Offensively, the fightin' turtles have some talent but lack experience. Defensively it's the opposite story - plenty of experience but a lack of skill. Either way you mix it, the Terrapins are in for another long year where three wins is a realistic improvement over their 2011 performance.
Coastal Division
1. North Carolina Tarheels 11-1 (8-0)
The team with the best record in the division is the fourth best in the conference but won't even play for the ACC championship. Huh? Thanks to egregious amounts of academic fraud uncovered during the Butch Davis era, UNC is looking a lot like Ohio State this year -- potential to win the conference but won't get a chance. Sanctions also limit the Tarheels from bowl game eligibility but maybe it's poetic justice for the Hokies who play a much tougher schedule. While it's hard to say if UNC's players are ever following NCAA guidelines, there is never a doubt that the program attracts enormous amounts of NFL talent.
Running back Giovani Bernard is a returning All-American that hopes for a big year. The defense for North Carolina looks to be down a little by typical standards, however, and the weak secondary could be it's undoing. A lack of focus could also sink in considering the team has little to play for other than pride. The schedule screams a huge year, but will the young men on the field execute?
2. Virginia Tech Hokies 9-3 (6-2)
How far can quarterback Logan Thomas carry the Hokies' offense? The answer to that question may be the answer to how successful the entire season becomes for VA Tech. Along with Thomas, the offense returns only three starters but is stacked with highly touted recruits that will likely reload the squad and emerge as the year presses on. A solid secondary has always been a staple of the Bud Foster defensive scheme and 2012 will be no different thanks to one of the top defensive line units in the entire country.
3. Georgia Tech Yellowjackets 7-5 (5-3)
Paul Johnson's option attack returns for another round as the ACC continues to adapt and improve against his methods. Unfortunately for the rest of the conference this may be the best offensive line group that Johnson has fielded during his tenure with the Yellowjackets. Senior quarterback Tevin Washington will ride fakes and pitch to a deep and experienced group of A-Backs and B-Backs helping to make this team very one-dimensional but dangerous nonetheless.
4. Virginia Cavaliers 6-6 (4-4)
We're not used to the success of 2011 for Virginia, so we're excused considering most of us forgot the Cavaliers won eight games last year. An early contest at home against Penn State will tell us a lot about the state of each program after two games, but it's the rest of the schedule that doesn't give up on the Cavaliers. Besides their contest with the Nittany Lions, UVA heads to TCU for a non-conference matchup and will host Louisiana Tech -- one of the more dangerous non-BCS teams for 2012.
If Virginia makes it back to a bowl game it will largely be due to a strong collection of talent on offense led by quarterback Michael Rocco, tailback Perry Jones, and an experienced offensive line. The defense has potential but has a lot to prove before the Cavs can consider a repeat performance this year.
5. Duke Blue Devils 4-8 (1-7)
Steve Spurrier, head coach of South Carolina, has been documented as casting a vote for the Blue Devils each time he fills out his Coach's poll on Sundays during the season. While Duke may not be on the verge of top-25 status, who would have thought they would see the day when "The U" could potentially finish lower than Duke in college football?
Maybe it's wishful thinking, but I'm marking November 24th on my calendar -- not just because it's my wife's birthday and I try to avoid sleeping on the couch -- but because it looks to be the battle for the bottom step. Duke hosts the Miami Hurricanes for the regular season finale. The winner won't likely have bragging rights, but the potential to see the 'Canes play out of fear of getting out-Duked might be a fun twist to end the year.
6. Miami Hurricanes 2-10 (0-8)
For a team that has struggled to mean much nationally, Miami (FL) isn't helping their own cause with their 2012 schedule. A trip to Kansas State and a contest against Notre Dame, capped by a late-year game against USF; the Hurricanes are setting themselves up for a stormy year. The 'Canes do have talent on both sides of the ball but not enough to stand out considering their placement in the hotbed of skillful recruits that is the state of Florida.
Experience won't be their strong suit either as only four starters return on offense and six on defense. Florida State and Florida are climbing and UCF looks to have big-time potential this year. Throw in the growing success of USF and the Hurricanes may quickly become the fifth best team in their own state.
ACC Championship Game
Florida State 24 - Virginia Tech 16
Best Offense
Clemson Tigers
Best Defense
Florida State Seminoles
Offensive Player of the Year
Sammy Watkins, WR - Clemson Tigers
Defensive Player of the Year
Brandon Jenkins, DE - Florida State
Coach of the Year
Jimbo Fisher -Florida State Seminoles
Coach on the Hot Seat
Randy Edsall - Maryland Terrapins
Team on the Rise
North Carolina Tarheels
Team on the Decline
Miami Hurricanes
Toughest Schedule
Miami Hurricanes
Easiest Schedule
North Carolina Tarheels
Teams Going Bowling
Florida State, Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Virginia
Sound Off: What are your predictions for the ACC college football season?
Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. You can follow him on Twitter @long_snapper.
Monday, August 13, 2012
This year's Big 10 football season may go down as one of the more confusing years in recent memory.
Ohio State could be the best in the B1G and go undefeated, but the Buckeyes won't have a shot at winning the conference thanks to sanctions carried forward from the Jim Tressel years. Penn State -- once thought of as one of the most respected programs in the nation -- is now a team that hasn't existed on paper since the 20th century. Worse yet, a team that isn't even a true-blood Big 10 squad may end up winning the whole thing.
This isn't your grandfather's Big 10 anymore. Spread offenses are (no pun intended) spreading throughout the league and B1G defenses are finally adapting -- somewhat. Typically boring on the field, the Big 10 has spiced things up away from it this offseason. Fans of the conference only hope the action on the gridiron helps to cover-up (pun intended) the distractions that have taken from everything great that is B1G football.
Leaders Division
1. Ohio State Buckeyes* 11-1 (7-1)
It's hard to think of Ohio State as being on a most-improved list, but a 6-7 campaign in 2011 has nothing but upside for this year. What may shock many, however, is just how good the Buckeyes can be. OSU is loaded with talent and experience, but will Urban Meyer and company be able to keep the squad focused and motivated without postseason possibilities?
*Ineligible for bowl games or the B1G Championship game
2. Wisconsin Badgers 10-2 (6-2)
Without a doubt, Montee Ball leads the best ground attack in the B1G -- perhaps in the country. The loss of Russell Wilson, however, begs serious questions about the offensive balance of the squad. Defensively the Badgers hope to finally pair a stingy turnout to go with the team's high-powered offensive attack. Wisconsin has one of the best linebacker tandems in the nation with Chris Borland and Mike Taylor, but the rest of the defense must step up for a chance at a BCS birth.
3. Illinois Fighting Illini 9-3 (5-3)
Experience and unproven talent will be the name of the game on offense for the Illini. Junior quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase will be surrounded by plenty of quality receivers and capable pass blockers, but the squad may not be able to keep up in shootouts. That's where the defense steps in. Home to perhaps one of the best cornerback tandems in the entire nation, Illinois hopes to bring pressure in the box while allowing Terry Hawthorne and Justin Green to shut down opponents' passing attacks.
4. Purdue Boilermakers 5-7 (2-6)
If nothing else, Purdue may have the best quarterback group in the conference thanks to years of transfers, injuries, and redshirts. While they do have plenty of experience back on offense (8 returning starters) the problem is that they may not really have that much else in the way of talent. The defensive side of the ball looks much the same, but an improved defensive line may be just enough to boost the Boilermakers and give them a shot at a bowl game this year.
5. Penn State Nittany Lions* 5-7 (2-6)
There really isn't much to say about Penn State that hasn't already been said. Predicting this squad is pretty futile at this point considering the unpredictability of transfers, but the exodus thus far has been painful. A partial silver lining to all of this was that I didn't expect much from the Nittany Lions before the sanctions were levied by the NCAA. Realistically the chances of playing in a major bowl were pretty slim this year as it were, but with that out of the question it's a matter of how many wins they get -- and will they stay relevant?
*Ineligible for bowl games or the B1G Championship game
6. Indiana Hoosiers 2-10 (0-8)
When does basketball season start? All joking aside, the Hoosiers do bring some familiar faces back in 2011, but quantity doesn't do much good in a BCS conference -- quality is what you need. At least the Hoosiers miss Michigan and Nebraska on the schedule and a 3-0 start to the season is a possibility. But can they pull a couple upsets to put themselves in bowl contention?
Legends Division
1. Nebraska Cornhuskers 11-1 (7-1)
With seven starters returning on offense and defensive respectively, this is definitely a team flying under the radar in the Big Ten this year. Led by quarterback Taylor Martinez, the 'Huskers have a well-balanced and gifted offense as well as defense. The one scary thing for Nebraska, however, is a tricky schedule to start the year. BCS buster Southern Miss, followed by a trip to UCLA, and finally a contest with Arkansas State (see, Gus Malzahn offense) creates a slight trap that Nebraska must make it through to build confidence for the B1G slate.
2. Michigan Wolverines 8-4 (6-2)
How can such a highly rated team (see, ESPN's Top 10 Power ratings) be projected to win only eight games? Take that up with the athletic director. The Wolverines, in a fight to prove their place atop the nation's best, have decided the best way to do it is through a Notre Dame-like schedule. With Alabama to start the year and a week four trip to face the Fighting Irish, Michigan will be one of the most battle-tested teams in the conference. The Maize and Blue have experience, lots of talent on offense (Denard Robinson), and finally some quality guys on the defensive side of the ball as well. The season opener against the Crimson Tide will tell us a lot about what to expect from Michigan in 2012.
3. Iowa Hawkeyes 8-4 (5-3)
When you get done screaming at the schedule makers for Michigan, feel free to send a gift basket to the guys in charge of the cupcake lineup for the Hawkeyes this year. Led by the best passer in the league in James Vandenberg, Iowa will be testing out a new offense under new offensive coordinator Greg Davis (formerly Texas). Likewise, Phil Parker (no relation to former defensive coordinator Norm) will be the new man behind the scheme on defense. Regardless, Iowa's three toughest games are against Michigan State in October, and then a rough finish to the season against Michigan and Nebraska. Coach Ferentz and Hawks fans have to expect several wins this year -- good timing considering the program's fall to mediocrity as of late.
4. Michigan State Spartans 7-5 (4-4)
Sparty and the boys are actually a better squad than the Hawkeyes, but who you play can influence wins to skew standings much of the time. Michigan State looks to be one of the more exciting teams on defense in the league this year, led by defensive end William Gholston (6'7" 275-pounds). Halfback Le'Veon Bell will have to be the leader of the offensive group this year as the next solid quarterback emerges for the green and white. A season-opening contest with Boise State should equal a win, but false hope will be gushing through Lansing as the Broncos aren't what they used to be. The Spartans are in for a rough start and middle to the schedule, but must stay healthy to claim necessary victories at season's end for a shot at a New Year's bowl game.
5. Minnesota Golden Gophers 4-8 (2-6)
The first four games of the season are extremely important for the health of the Gophers this year. UNLV, New Hampshire, Western Michigan, and Syracuse (at home) are all winnable games. The rest of the schedule is filled with Big Ten foes where two wins may be a reasonable expectation. The electrifying MarQueis Gray should be improved at quarterback, but the defense will once again be the difference between a bowl season and cellar-dwellar for Minnesota.
6. Northwestern Wildcats 3-9 (1-7)
A new quarterback and a team lacking experience and talent awaits fans of the Wildcats in 2012. Only five men return as starters on offense and defense respectively, but it's the gap left by departed quarterback Dan Persa that has the future of Northwestern football looking uncertain. Offense will likely have to carry the team as the defensive front seven lacks any real punch, rendering the secondary as a weakness with the potential for B1G quarterbacks to pick the 'Cats apart.
Big Ten Championship Game
Nebraska Cornhuskers 45 - Wisconsin Badgers 31
Best Offense
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Best Defense
Ohio State Buckeyes
Offensive Player of the Year
Taylor Martinez, QB - Nebraska Cornhuskers
Defensive Player of the Year
William Gholston, DE - Michigan State Spartans
Coach of the Year
Urban Meyer - Ohio State Buckeyes
Coach on the Hot Seat
Danny Hope - Purdue Boilermakers
Team on the Rise
Illinois Fighting Illini
Team on the Decline
Penn State Nittany Lions
Toughest Schedule
Michigan Wolverines
Easiest Schedule
Iowa Hawkeyes
Teams Going Bowling
Wisconsin, Illinois, Nebraska, Michigan, Iowa, Michigan State
Sound Off: What are your predictions for the Big Ten college football season?
Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. You can follow him on Twitter @long_snapper.
Friday, August 10, 2012
In many ways the 2012 season looks a lot like last year in the MLB at this point.
The toughest teams in the American League look to be fighting atop the East and West respectively. Last year it was Boston on it's way to a season finale meltdown, but this year the Yankees have looked steady and unflappable. Texas is in the same familiar spot of first in the West, but things are looking cloudy behind them as the Angels slowly creep up while the Athletics hang around -- for how long though no one knows.
The AL Central is another episode of above-average tug-of-war to claim the division, which is made more important due to the fact the Wild Card spots are most likely to be swallowed by the East or West. Speaking of which, in case you forgot the 2012 season provides us with twice as many teams for the Wild Card spots, culminating in a one-game playoff between the two teams upon completion of the regular season.
Oakland, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Tampa Bay, Detroit, and even Boston are within pouncing distance. If all these clubs hang around we could be in for an amazing finish to the season. Think about it -- only five teams are realistically out of playoff contention in the American League.
In the National League East, Washington has replaced Philadelphia as the top club record-wise with Atlanta close behind in strong contention for a Wild Card spot. Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are battling through the ups and downs of winning and losing streaks while St. Louis refuses to go away in the Central. Finally, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Arizona battle it out in the West much like the grouping in the AL Central.
The Senior Circuit looks to be slightly less competitive in regard to teams out of contention at this point. Split down the middle with eight teams realistically eliminated from playoff contention, the National League has the same number (eight) with a quality shot at a division title or Wild Card birth.
With so many teams still in line -- and knowing that literally anything can happen in the postseason -- predicting the playoffs is even tougher now than in any recent year I can remember.
If I was to put confidence points on a prediction for division winners, New York winning the AL East, Texas in the AL West, and Washington taking the NL East would be one, two, and three. If nothing else, I can't imagine a realistic outcome that leaves any of them out of the playoffs.
I see the AL Central less about who wins the division and more about the poor quality in the division other than Detroit and Chicago. Because of this, I see the White Sox making it into the postseason with the Tigers on a slight edge for the division title. The final Wild Card spot is a tough one to dish out, but I think I'm going to turn my back on the AL East (not an easy choice) and will side with the Angels out of the West.
In the National League, my first strong belief after the inclusion of the Nationals is that of how strong Atlanta looks to me. The Nationals and Braves may swap positions, but it doesn't really matter -- I see both in the playoffs but a slight edge to Washington for the division title.
Out West, the Dodgers are holding on despite a lack of depth and the Giants are taking advantage by playing slightly-above-average baseball. Sneaking up behind both, however, are the young and fiery Diamondbacks. Arizona appears to be picking up steam, perhaps motivated by their disappointing finish to the 2011 campaign. I'll go out on a limb and ride the current momentum here and say that the Diamondbacks will take the NL West.
The NL Central looks like a tough draw to sort, but I think it becomes clear once the peaks and valleys are removed from the equation. I've felt since before the season started that the Reds were the team to beat in the division. I've been equally surprised by the winning ways of the Pirates, but even more impressive is how St. Louis has hung around despite difficult injuries throughout the rotation and lineup all season long. I expect Cincinnati to remain at the top and look for the Cardinals and Pirates to switch places as Pittsburgh comes down to earth. St. Louis then joins Atlanta as the two Wild Card representatives.
In the Wild Card games I expect the balance of the Braves to overwhelm St. Louis in the National League. In the AL I think the White Sox give up a huge fight, but the strong arms of the Angels combined with big bats and youth will be too much to overcome.
In the American League, New York hosting the Los Angeles Angels will be a fantastic matchup for ratings. Albert Pujols in the Bronx for his first taste of American League playoffs -- get ready for a media frenzy -- but the Yankee mystique will prove to be a rude welcome as New York moves on. Texas and Detroit will be a solid matchup as well. I see a Rangers club outperforming the Tigers, however, in a series that features a Texas squad showing Detroit the difference between producing on the diamond and looking powerful on paper -- Texas advances as well.
In the first round of the National League playoffs Atlanta will travel to Cincinnati to take on the Reds. Cincinnati is a very good but very streaky club. I don't have the confidence in a Dusty Baker led group to make any noise in the playoffs and expect the Braves to pull it out in an offensive slugfest. The proposed matchup between Arizona and Washington is a bit of a surprise and a tough one to decipher in terms of how the youth and inexperience will play out. It's hard, however, to justify going against the long-term success of the Nationals and I expect Strasburg to be a factor despite his innings limit. Washington moves on to face the Braves for the NL Championship.
In the ALCS we have another classic contest between the Yankees and the Rangers. Texas is back hoping for a third straight trip to the World Series while New York wants to creep ever closer to their unthinkable 30th championship. Both teams are exceptionally talented and for me it comes down to the fact that Texas deserves the top spot until knocked off. The Rangers have proven they're the best American League playoff team of the past two years and have shown no signs of slowing down in 2012. Texas moves on for a shot at ending their pain or becoming the Buffalo Bills of baseball.
The Braves and Nationals duke it out for my hypothetical NLCS crown. Whether it's an ill-timed arm blowout that proves poetically unjust for the 'Nats, or the baseball gods are on the side of Chipper Jones -- my vote in this one leans towards Atlanta. The young guns can wait for another year (and no I don't expect or wish harm on Strasburg or the Nationals) as the Braves return to National League prominence for the first time since the 1990's.
Finally, the way-too-early prediction for the World Series championship in 2012. It's Texas versus Atlanta. Nolan Ryan taking on Dale Murphy. A lot of offense, solid defense and speed, and streaky pitching. Two years ago the Rangers were tamed by the pitching of San Francisco. Last year it was the improbable heroics of David Freese. This year, however, the Rangers won't be awestruck or the victims of Hollywood style fate. Texas will be your 2012 World Series champions.
What teams do you see in the 2012 MLB playoffs? Who wins the World Series?
Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. You can follow him on Twitter @long_snapper.
Thursday, August 9, 2012
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