Madden 12 News Post

Analyst: Madden Sales to Fall 50% if NFL Season is Cancelled

03:29 PM - March 16, 2011 by RaychelSnr

Everyone's favorite video game analysts Michael Pachter is back with a prediction for Madden this season:

Quote:


	"Michael Pachter, video game analyst at Wedbush Morgan Securities, believes the longer the lockout drags on, the more likely it is that NFL fans will become alienated. He said while Madden is a great experience for gamers, its sales are definitely correlated to the underlying popularity of the NFL, so if the popularity of the NFL suffers, it�s likely that sales of Madden will suffer. �It�s still too early to call, since the lockout is happening in March and Madden launches in August,� said Pachter. �That�s a lot of time to fix things, although most commentators don�t sound very optimistic. My guess is that a complete cancellation of the NFL season would cost Madden around 50 percent of sales, and a delay of the season would be far less impactful. If the season is only delayed a week or two and fans aren�t alienated, there would be only a very small impact; if delayed through Thanksgiving (when the holiday selling season begins in earnest), the impact would be far greater.�

I don't want to speculate on the exact amount, but Pachter would be close to right if the entire season is cancelled. EA is already planning on Madden not being a big seller this year with their forward forecasts and past performances of games under strikes and lockouts don't give one much hope for Madden to be a sales hoss this season.

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Member Comments

# 1 wallofhate @ 03/16/11 03:38 PM

Im no expert but I feel a 50% cut in profits seems a lil bit much. I would guess more of the realm of 25% to 35%. There are drones of people who just purchase the game just strictly of the name that dobt even really watch or play football much. Then you have people who want to fill the gap left with the missing "real" games. And lastly people such as myself who just cant get enough football irregardless of the situation. College football and the ncaa game would see substantial gains from the lockout though.

# 2 gbombbay @ 03/16/11 03:50 PM

That s*** looks terrible. Is that a pic of graphics from the last Madden "sarcasm"? Madden (should) have a drop in sales on the quality of product it puts out every year all on its own. It's not like what we see on Sunday is even close to being portrayed in this title anyway. So never-mind if the season is canceled. Hurts me to say as a football fan first, but this (the lockout) may just be a blessing in disguise, as far as video game football goes.

# 3 jyoung @ 03/16/11 03:50 PM

According to vgchartz:

NBA Live 98 - 1.40 million sales
NBA Live 99 - 1.09 million sales

So PS1 NBA Live sales dropped 22% the year of the lockout.

I think a 20% sales drop is a much more realistic expectation for Madden.

# 4 1WEiRDguy @ 03/16/11 03:51 PM

I would love to see how this would do with no nflpa after a lot of people bashed (and didnt support) backbreaker and APK2k8 with no current nflpa or nfl association for that matter...this takes me back to madden 64...most of the visitors on this site are probably too young to remember that...lol

# 5 jyoung @ 03/16/11 03:56 PM

Yeah all the Maddens up until Madden 95 didn't have the NFLPA license, so the players were just numbered instead of named.

Madden 64 (the N64 equivalent of Madden 98) actually had the NFLPA license, but not the NFL team license.

# 6 The GIGGAS @ 03/16/11 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wEEman33


	According to vgchartz: NBA Live 98 - 1.40 million sales NBA Live 99 - 1.09 million sales So PS1 NBA Live sales dropped 22% the year of the lockout. I think a 20% sales drop is a much more realistic expectation for Madden.

I feel that's a better approximation as well.

# 7 canes21 @ 03/16/11 04:09 PM

I actually think sales might increase. More people will be craving the NFL and Madden will be the only thing to offer it to them. Or they can keep Madden 11 and sim one year and play what would be the season they're missing out on.

I need to think this through.

# 8 coogrfan @ 03/16/11 04:13 PM

This is a moot point-the NFL season will start on time, take it to the bank. Much ado about nothing, imo.

# 9 daslyvillian @ 03/16/11 04:13 PM

So if there is not NFLPA any more does any football game need anyother type of license to put the actual players in the game? Example 2K12 with real players and fake teams!

# 10 SageInfinite @ 03/16/11 04:21 PM

This would be the only good thing about an NFL lockout, lol.

# 11 coogrfan @ 03/16/11 04:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by daslyvillian


	So if there is not NFLPA any more does any football game need anyother type of license to put the actual players in the game? Example 2K12 with real players and fake teams!

As I understand it VC would have to negotiate individual deals with each player (as they did with the legends in APF). Needless to say, VC won't be doing that.

# 12 stlstudios189 @ 03/16/11 05:47 PM

I am so over with this whole lockout crap. The NFL will screw up major if the season is even delayed. They make 9 BILLION a year and cant divide it up give me a freaking break. If the season is delayed I will NEVER pay $65 to watch them play again. As for this season screw them I am not getting Madden for the 1st time since 1998 (I bought Gameday) NCAA football will be my new game this year.

# 13 bh446066 @ 03/16/11 06:19 PM

They didn't survey me, b/c I'm going to be buying it for the first time since 08 this year, and for the first time on current gen.

# 14 Dazraz @ 03/16/11 07:41 PM

50% seems like a number pulled out of thin air.

What's the betting Madden is released this year as a sub par game with EA citing reduced investment in the product based on forecasts of poor sales due to a lockout.

# 15 PantherBeast_OS @ 03/16/11 08:20 PM

I do feel that if a lockout does happen this year. The sales will go down some. But by 50% is a little much tho. I would say maybe about 25-30% sales lost because of the lockout that will happen and if does at this point. It's still to early to say tho. But lockout or not I will be there day 1 to get my copy. I love Madden either way. I have for 21 years now.

# 16 kjcheezhead @ 03/16/11 08:32 PM

Since I absolutely hate current gen Madden, this news should be music to my ears. The problem is that if the game sells poorly, they will blame it on the NFL being cancelled and not because it's a very mediocre game that only sells as well as it does because people love the NFL.

# 17 turftickler @ 03/16/11 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wEEman33


	According to vgchartz: NBA Live 98 - 1.40 million sales NBA Live 99 - 1.09 million sales So PS1 NBA Live sales dropped 22% the year of the lockout. I think a 20% sales drop is a much more realistic expectation for Madden.

NBA Live 99 was good game, but Madden NFL 11 is far from good. I can see about a 75% loss of sales this year for Madden NFL 12 if EA is not allowed to use the player likeness and names. If that is the case, the Madden NFL fanbase will finally see what the true sim nation has been seeing since ESPN NFL 2k6 was cut.

If the Madden NFL dev team wants to succeed, the will go route of NCAA 12 this year. Gameplay first, pretty graphics and "Surprise Onsides Kicks" become bonus. 2k Sports knows how to make a great football game, but they don't know how to advertise as well as EA Sports does.

# 18 roadman @ 03/16/11 08:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by turftickler


	NBA Live 99 was good game, but Madden NFL 11 is far from good. I can see about a 75% loss of sales this year for Madden NFL 12 if EA is not allowed to use the player likeness and names. If that is the case, the Madden NFL fanbase will finally see what the true sim nation has been seeing since ESPN NFL 2k6 was cut. If the Madden NFL dev team wants to succeed, the will go route of NCAA 12 this year. Gameplay first, pretty graphics and "Surprise Onsides Kicks" become bonus. 2k Sports knows how to make a great football game, but they don't know how to advertise as well as EA Sports does.

I don't agree with 99 being a good game. There were bugs in that game. Live 95 and 96 were better on the Genesis than 99 on the PC. Also, it's already been reported all NFL players, teams will be in the game.

Just because they came crashing out of the gates early with SOK, doesn't mean there aren't bigger and better things down the road. That's the way info has been released the last three years.

Everyone seems to be forgetting the NFL gave EA a break this year on the license fee because of the upcoming negotiations.

# 19 ODogg @ 03/16/11 08:54 PM

That's ridiculous, Maddens sales may fall a bit because of the lockout but nowhere near 50%, LMAO

# 20 bigdoc85 @ 03/16/11 10:24 PM

Heck, sales could fall more than 50% when there is an alternative -- NCAA Football 12. I got Madden with my PS3 and ended up selling it on ebay. I'd rather play classic teams on NFL2K5 on my PS2.

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Analyst: Madden Sales to Fall 50% if NFL Season is Cancelled