NCAA Football: Five Most Talented Offenses in 2012 - jmik58's Blog

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NCAA Football: Five Most Talented Offenses in 2012 Stuck

Posted on July 17, 2012 at 10:22 AM.

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Defense may win championships but offense sells tickets.

Last year's national championship contest pitted bitter rivals Alabama and LSU against each other as the Crimson Tide came out victorious to cap a season that saw them lead the nation in points allowed (8.2 per game) while scoring at a clip of 34.8 points per game (20th nationally). No slouch themselves, LSU's 11.3 points per game was second in the country only to 'Bama, while notching the 17th best scoring offense at 35.7 points per game.

Even though defense was the mode of transportation to the title game, a potent offense was still a guarantee for a successful season in 2011. Looking at the top-ten scoring offenses from 2011, the average finishing record was an impressive 10-3. Take out the 7-6 records of Texas A&M and Nevada, and that average climbs to 11-2.

An explosive offense is a weapon that can overcome the ebb and flow of the craziest moments of nearly any game. When the defense lets down, a group of talented skill-men on offense can make up the slack in a matter of minutes. And when a team falls behind, a good defense doesn't do much good -- bring in the 4.2 speed and five-wide attack, however, and you have a puncher's chance.

To compile my rankings I created a formula that factors in two key components. If you read my piece on the Five Most Talented College Football Teams in 2012 you're already familiar with my approach. I scan over the projected starters for each team in college football and assign a point value based on the recruit rankings given to each player coming out of high school or junior college (I use Phil Steele's recruit ranking since it is a comprehensive one that factors in various publications). I then calculate points based on past awards received such as All-Conference, All-American, Heisman, etc. I total the values and the team with the highest rating earns my tag as the most talented.

Here are the college football teams with the most talent on the offensive side of the ball for the 2012 season.

Honorable Mention: (Michigan, Pitt, Tennessee, Ohio State, Nebraska)

5. Notre Dame Fighting Irish

The Fighting Irish feature top-fifty recruits at every offensive position; the only exception being wide receiver Robby Toma (PS #109). Featuring eight players with significant starts from 2011, Notre Dame is led by one of the nation's best tight ends in Tyler Eifert (1st Team All-American). The Irish will need a little luck with the crazy schedule they have in 2012, but an offense loaded with talent will serve as a vital component to hang in with whatever opponents bring this season.

4. LSU Tigers

The Tigers are led in their redemption season by a new face at quarterback, Zach Mettenberger, who comes in as the fourth rated junior college prospect transitioning to the FBS. At 6'5" and 220 lbs, Mettenberger has pro potential and could be a serious surprise Heisman contender.

The rest of the LSU offense is chock-full of proven talent to go with high recruit numbers. Running back Spencer Ware returns off an All-SEC campaign, as do offensive tackles Alex Hurst and Chris Faulk. Following a disappointing shut-out in the '11 championship game, the Tigers may just have the missing firepower to finish the deal.

3. Alabama Crimson Tide

When you're a perennial national championship contender in the nation's best conference you can find yourself on lists like this despite only returning six starters. The Crimson Tide clearly have plenty of unproven talent, but that hasn't been much of a problem in recent years. Big time recruits are littered throughout the starting eleven and beyond; none more impressive than top offensive lineman Cyrus Kouandijo.

As if the future didn't look bright enough, the nation's top returning lineman, Barrett Jones, comes back to defend his Outland Trophy Award from '11. As 'Bama reloads the question will be less about if they produce offensively, but who emerges among a team of playmakers.

2. USC Trojans

As my favorite to win the 2012 national championship, USC obviously is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. Led by my Heisman favorite, quarterback Matt Barkley, the Trojans' very highly touted wide receivers George Farmer (PS#1) and Robert Woods (PS#2) -- a returning All-American -- should put up big points in every game this year.

Also with accolades on the field are wide receiver Marqise Lee, tight end Randall Telfer, center Khaled Holmes and offensive guard Marcus Martin. With a defense that's just as skilled, the Trojans shouldn't need their offense to win many games, but if necessary they should be able to answer the call.

1. Clemson Tigers

The downside to the Tigers attack in 2012 may be the drop-off on the defensive side of the ball when considering their hopes of making a serious championship run. The offense, however, couldn't care less. Clemson's collection of explosiveness is led by quarterback Tajh Boyd (All-ACC), halfback Andre Ellington (All-ACC), and wide receiver Sammy Watkins (All-American).

The three-headed monster doesn't stop there though. Talent on the offensive line is finally abundant in 2012; something necessary for a team that can't afford the mental mistakes and lack of control at the line of scrimmage that crept up on them at inopportune moments last year. As questionable as the defense is, the offense of the Tigers may be powerful enough that it puts opponents on the ropes and allows the "D" to benefit from panicky attacks seeking to keep up with the high-scoring fireworks of Clemson.

A national championship may be a stretch, and the opening contest with Auburn will tell us a lot, but there is little doubt as to what team looks the most impressive on the offensive side of the ball.

What teams do you expect to impress offensively this season?

Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. Follow him on Twitter @long_snapper.

Comments

# 1 crques @ Jul 17

Geno Smith, Stedman Bailey, Tavon Austin....and no WVU? Notre Dame, LSU, and Alabama........seriously?

# 2 jmik58 @ Jul 17

I point out in the article that the ratings are based off recruit rankings and past awards/all-conf/all-am of all eleven starters.

West Virginia is #25 on my list for offenses, pretty respectable.

# 3 pirateraider @ Jul 17

last year, notre dame had 35th overall offense, lsu the 86th overall, and alabama the 31st overall.

yeah these teams can put up points, but i wouldn't consider them top offenses by any means. top recruits doesn't equal top results

# 4 GoHogs87 @ Jul 17

No Arkansas? They have arguably the top QB, RB, WR, and TE in the SEC.

# 5 jrtplaya21 @ Jul 17

Haha Lattimore is the best RB in the SEC and it isn't even close.

# 6 jclarke22 @ Jul 17

How the Hell to West Virgina not get ranked? recruit ratings be damned

# 7 jmik58 @ Jul 17

@pirateraider I'm not projecting wins, only a raw rating that incoporates talent coming into college and displayed achievement on the field via awards, all-conf, all-am, etc.

I have separate calculations that I do that create a win-prediction model based on talent, experience, and other factors. I don't want to get into much of that because it's a topic for another day. I have numerous teams with the projection to win as many if not more than some of these "most talented" teams -- especially Clemson and Notre Dame.

Another way to look at data like this is to see who underperforms historically based on talent. I factor that into my win-prediction models as well.

# 8 champ195797 @ Jul 17

No Oregon this must be a joke

# 9 marginwalker12 @ Jul 17

I agree with every comment above. West Virginia? Oregon? Arkansas?

# 10 crques @ Jul 17

WVU is 25th on your list of offenses? I would love to see at least 10 offenses more explosive. Where is Oregon and Arkansas on that list? Notre Dame doesn't even have a starting QB yet and LSU is going to play a guy that's never started a division I game. How does that factor into these ratings?

# 11 jmik58 @ Jul 17

@crques No, WVU is not #25 on my list of offenses. Again, this is a list that factors in the recruit ratings and on-the-field accolades of the starters. This has nothing to do with how "good" they are or how many games they'll win.

Like I mentioned in a previous comment, this tells me -- as much as anything -- who underachieves or overachieves based on talent alone. Clemson has a starting eleven that is loaded with top recruits and several players who have all-conf and all-american guys returning. A team like that should dominate the scoreboard all year long. But will they? That's yet to be seen.

The lack of a starting quarterback doesn't factor into these ratings, but it does factor into my wins-predicted model for talent where I also plug in experience (and experience at key positions) -- plus I look at how the teams have under-achieved or over-achieved based on their talent in the past. However, that's not the purpose of this piece.

# 12 Sparkles @ Jul 17

C! L! E! M! S! O! ... N!

# 13 PioneerRaptor @ Jul 17

Terrible list.

Also, stop contradicting yourself.

In post #2 you said you had West Virginia at #25 and in post #11 you said that you didn't? Awesome.

You need to come up with a much more effective formula, because that lists has only 1 team that I would put in the top 5 for offenses. Basing your formula off of players that haven't even played is flawed. Basing it off of awards is also flawed, because there is more than talent that goes into those awards. Team success helps greatly and of course a little regional bias.

# 14 jmik58 @ Jul 17

@PioneerRaptor There is no contradiction. "Comment #2" was a response to WVU not being on the list which is about talent. I stated that "West Virginia is #25 on my list for offenses..." I didn't say #25 best offense or on the list for best offenses.

The entire article is based on talent, so when I refer to the article that is about talent, I don't need to re-state that it's about...talent.

How is basing the formula off of players that haven't played flawed? Again, I'm not predicting wins. Raw talent mixed with the few that have shown on the field success. Evaluating talent is a "flawed" arbitrary thing anyways. I don't pretend to have the perfect formula.

Although, I am curious to hear your idea.