FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

[DCEBB2001]

Quote: Originally Posted by buckey00

I'm obviously new here, but I have been playing Madden since 03. I personally like the wide span of ratings you have right now. It will make fore a more natural and realistic game. Even in ccm the inflation of talent seems to be so gradual the ratings would be worth doing. Im in year 2016 of my ccm and the average amount of draft class player starters per team seems to be 2 for more established teams and 4 for teams that were rebuilding through the draft. Now this may give teams that have more/higher draft picks an advantage. But, like I said it the more inflated talent seems to be infused gradually with the draft classes and the exp progression of current players. The progression of current players could also cancel out the inflated ratings in the draft class. I guess that depends on how intelligently the computer spends their xp. Now I have no idea how much work it is or if this is an ignorant question but if the draft classes are to much of a worry, there could be two sets of ratings: the ones rated on ea's scale and the current ones, and then the madden players could choose which set they would want to used based on their wants.

That would be a great idea to have two systems, but first we have to be able to edit the draft classes either before or after the players are added to the game. The inflation occurs through EA's non-normalized ratings and position-specific raw attributes, like LBs being slower than WRs even if they have the same maximum velocity. The other issue is the range in EAs system is far more narrow. WRs in EAs game have an average speed of 88 while FBG WRs have an average SPD of 83. So basically every player is already -5 in comparison of SPD ratings. FBG also uses higher AWR ratings. So after several seasons the new players with their AWR ratings as low as 20 would take over your league and you would be back to EAs system unless we are able to make edits to the draft classes.

The one thing I have considered doing was using EAs ranges and then using my data to differentiate between the players. So for instance DeSean Jackson has a SPD of 92 in FBG's system. That is presently derived from his 40 time of 4.35. The average 40 time is 4.81 which is 70 SPD. The max is 4.21 which is 99 SPD. Now Trindon Holliday has that 99 SPD in FBG. What I can do is set the average of 4.81 to EA's average SPD of 74 making DeSean's SPD more like a 94. However, the problem still persists that EA does not universally rate players regardless of position. So if a LB runs a 4.35 his SPD is only an 89 instead of 94. That is the other big issue. In addition, the OVR calculations are meant for players with higher raw attributes (STR, SPD, ACC, AGI, JMP) so to get the desired OVR rating, I have to compensate by raising the position specific attributes. That seems to work well for now, but it leaves us with some higher AWR and other ratings in comparision.

[buckey00]

Quote: Originally Posted by DCEBB2001

That would be a great idea to have two systems, but first we have to be able to edit the draft classes either before or after the players are added to the game. The inflation occurs through EA's non-normalized ratings and position-specific raw attributes, like LBs being slower than WRs even if they have the same maximum velocity. The other issue is the range in EAs system is far more narrow. WRs in EAs game have an average speed of 88 while FBG WRs have an average SPD of 83. So basically every player is already -5 in comparison of SPD ratings. FBG also uses higher AWR ratings. So after several seasons the new players with their AWR ratings as low as 20 would take over your league and you would be back to EAs system unless we are able to make edits to the draft classes. The one thing I have considered doing was using EAs ranges and then using my data to differentiate between the players. So for instance DeSean Jackson has a SPD of 92 in FBG's system. That is presently derived from his 40 time of 4.35. The average 40 time is 4.81 which is 70 SPD. The max is 4.21 which is 99 SPD. Now Trindon Holliday has that 99 SPD in FBG. What I can do is set the average of 4.81 to EA's average SPD of 74 making DeSean's SPD more like a 94. However, the problem still persists that EA does not universally rate players regardless of position. So if a LB runs a 4.35 his SPD is only an 89 instead of 94. That is the other big issue. In addition, the OVR calculations are meant for players with higher raw attributes (STR, SPD, ACC, AGI, JMP) so to get the desired OVR rating, I have to compensate by raising the position specific attributes. That seems to work well for now, but it leaves us with some higher AWR and other ratings in comparision.

So the problem isnt so much overall inflation but more just for the physical ratings like speed, agility, ect. Now not to bash ea but I feel that 2k does a much better job at rating variation. However, there are not as many players that they need to worry about. Another fundamental problem about ratings is that they rely so much on physical attributes when football is just as much a mental game as a physical one. And the mental attributes like awareness are still debated on what they actually effect.
There are so many different types of players in the NFL that it would be awesome for them to actually be accurately represented in Madden, and to be able to feel the difference. I completely agree with what you said above about fast guys not always having the greatest agility, but yet is almost always portrayed that way. Darren McFadden is the only one I can think of that has a significantly lower agility rating than speed in Madden.
On topic of draft classes I saw a thread in the rosters section that was talking about it and actually starting to implement it but it has hit a stand-still. I don't know if it was for only names or ratings too.

[DCEBB2001]

Quote: Originally Posted by buckey00

So the problem isnt so much overall inflation but more just for the physical ratings like speed, agility, ect. Now not to bash ea but I feel that 2k does a much better job at rating variation. However, there are not as many players that they need to worry about. Another fundamental problem about ratings is that they rely so much on physical attributes when football is just as much a mental game as a physical one. And the mental attributes like awareness are still debated on what they actually effect. There are so many different types of players in the NFL that it would be awesome for them to actually be accurately represented in Madden, and to be able to feel the difference. I completely agree with what you said above about fast guys not always having the greatest agility, but yet is almost always portrayed that way. Darren McFadden is the only one I can think of that has a significantly lower agility rating than speed in Madden. On topic of draft classes I saw a thread in the rosters section that was talking about it and actually starting to implement it but it has hit a stand-still. I don't know if it was for only names or ratings too.

Well I am not sure how M13 has the OVR ratings compiled as you draft and go into a few seasons, but it is rare that I have over 100 of the 20000+ players rated over 90. In fact, right now I think there are only 89. The number of players in the 80s is also pretty low in comparison. However, I also have a larger population to draw from (20000 players compared to only 3000 as seen in Madden). What I basically wanted to do was make the 90+ player RARE and make the "average" player more abundant, but with room to develop into a great player.

In Madden presently, it seems like all of the rookies have very high physical skills and just low AWR ratings. That means you can take just about any player and find a way to just up their AWR to make them great. That, however, is not correct in my experience. I posit that the differentiation in physical skills is far wider. That means that no matter how much more AWR a player gets, their lesser physical skills will hold them back. Scouts refer to this as the "ceiling". A player with a high ceiling typically has off the chart physical talent (SPD, ACC, AGI, JMP, STR) but lacks technical skills (AWR, CTH, CAR, PBK, RBK, etc.). Coaches know that the physical skills and COMBINATION of good skills (like having great SPD and AGI for a RB or having great SPD and STR for a DE) is rare. Many WRs in college can run under 4.7 in the 40, but how many can run under 4.7, post a 3-cone time under 7.0, and bench press 20 reps? See what I am getting at here? It is the players with the COMBINATION of raw skills that are indeed rare.

That being said, if a coach/scout realizes a rare athletic talent who needs more technical refinement, they may take a chance on him in the hope that the player receives good coaching and develops his technical skills. Look at guys like Antonio Gates and Jimmy Graham who had amazing physical tools as TEs but needed to hone their crafts in order to play football. When they were picked up they most likely had "high ceilings" but were RAW. Those are the guys you want to develop based on their high, raw, athletic talents.

Madden has just about every rookie with a comparatively "high ceiling" ie: high physical attributes and low technical attributes. This is NOT representative of the college population. In fact, the opposite actually holds true. Most college players have very sound technical skill, but do not possess the raw athletic talent to compete in the NFL, where the athleticism is the best of the best in the sport. Look at just about any draft. There are reasons you find bigger/stronger/faster players going in the top portion of any draft class. Their ceilings based on raw ability are higher. Look at guys from this year like Bruce Irvin. Very gifted athletic ability, but he only played on 3rd downs for West Virginia! His technical skill does not match his athletic ability, yet Seattle took him in the 1st round ahead of more proven college players. Conversely look at Vontez Burfict. He had a very good college resume, but showed that he lacked the athletic ability to have a high ceiling. The funny thing now is that those guys with great technical skill and marginal (for the NFL) athletic abilities learn to overcome their lesser gifts with hard work, knowledge of the game, and near-perfect technical talents (see Jerry Rice and Emmett Smith for examples).

[buckey00]

Quote: Originally Posted by DCEBB2001

Well I am not sure how M13 has the OVR ratings compiled as you draft and go into a few seasons, but it is rare that I have over 100 of the 20000+ players rated over 90. In fact, right now I think there are only 89. The number of players in the 80s is also pretty low in comparison. However, I also have a larger population to draw from (20000 players compared to only 3000 as seen in Madden). What I basically wanted to do was make the 90+ player RARE and make the "average" player more abundant, but with room to develop into a great player. In Madden presently, it seems like all of the rookies have very high physical skills and just low AWR ratings. That means you can take just about any player and find a way to just up their AWR to make them great. That, however, is not correct in my experience. I posit that the differentiation in physical skills is far wider. That means that no matter how much more AWR a player gets, their lesser physical skills will hold them back. Scouts refer to this as the "ceiling". A player with a high ceiling typically has off the chart physical talent (SPD, ACC, AGI, JMP, STR) but lacks technical skills (AWR, CTH, CAR, PBK, RBK, etc.). Coaches know that the physical skills and COMBINATION of good skills (like having great SPD and AGI for a RB or having great SPD and STR for a DE) is rare. Many WRs in college can run under 4.7 in the 40, but how many can run under 4.7, post a 3-cone time under 7.0, and bench press 20 reps? See what I am getting at here? It is the players with the COMBINATION of raw skills that are indeed rare. That being said, if a coach/scout realizes a rare athletic talent who needs more technical refinement, they may take a chance on him in the hope that the player receives good coaching and develops his technical skills. Look at guys like Antonio Gates and Jimmy Graham who had amazing physical tools as TEs but needed to hone their crafts in order to play football. When they were picked up they most likely had "high ceilings" but were RAW. Those are the guys you want to develop based on their high, raw, athletic talents. Madden has just about every rookie with a comparatively "high ceiling" ie: high physical attributes and low technical attributes. This is NOT representative of the college population. In fact, the opposite actually holds true. Most college players have very sound technical skill, but do not possess the raw athletic talent to compete in the NFL, where the athleticism is the best of the best in the sport. Look at just about any draft. There are reasons you find bigger/stronger/faster players going in the top portion of any draft class. Their ceilings based on raw ability are higher. Look at guys from this year like Bruce Irvin. Very gifted athletic ability, but he only played on 3rd downs for West Virginia! His technical skill does not match his athletic ability, yet Seattle took him in the 1st round ahead of more proven college players. Conversely look at Vontez Burfict. He had a very good college resume, but showed that he lacked the athletic ability to have a high ceiling. The funny thing now is that those guys with great technical skill and marginal (for the NFL) athletic abilities learn to overcome their lesser gifts with hard work, knowledge of the game, and near-perfect technical talents (see Jerry Rice and Emmett Smith for examples).

In 13 most of the Star development players from the draft are in the 70s and 80s depending on schemes. That would be another variable with madden 13 if you do end up doing it. And in ccm the new development system allows us to easily progress players much more so than in years past, especially if the player user controls the games. The physical attributes do cost more which is nice.

Another problem in madden is there no chance for those extremely athletic prospects or physically skilled prospects to bust or underwhelm like they do in the NFL all the time. Such as Jamarcus Russell, Aaron Curry, Vernon Gholston, Felix Jones and so on. And then in Madden there is also no way to turn the marginal athlete in a quality player because this game relies so much on physical attributes. It is much easier to use a heyward-bey type player with bad route running and catching but burning speed and agility than using someone like Welker who does not have the same speed but has the catching and route-running necesarry to be a good receiver. Almost all teams in the NFL would take Welker but in Madden I find it easier to use bay.

[buckey00]

Do you think fbg will come out with an edited roster for 13, with the roster editor, as I'm sure that would take much less time than doing it inside the game, now that you can take custom rosters into ccm?

[KBLover]

Quote: Originally Posted by buckey00

It is much easier to use a heyward-bey type player with bad route running and catching but burning speed and agility than using someone like Welker who does not have the same speed but has the catching and route-running necesarry to be a good receiver. Almost all teams in the NFL would take Welker but in Madden I find it easier to use bay.

And you'd think with all the emphasis on the Infinity Engine and stuff, the route running would be much more represented in the gameplay - bad cuts, some stumbles/more rounded turns, not able to maintain the best line on the route, etc.

I would have thought that in 13 - the Welker's of the world would have been much stronger

[DCEBB2001]

Quote: Originally Posted by buckey00

Do you think fbg will come out with an edited roster for 13, with the roster editor, as I'm sure that would take much less time than doing it inside the game, now that you can take custom rosters into ccm?

FBG Ratings does not produce rosters at this time. We are in negotiations, and have been for some time, with a 3rd party for roster production.

As for an external rosters editor for M13, I am unaware of this. Someone care to elaborate?

[DCEBB2001]

Quote: Originally Posted by KBLover

And you'd think with all the emphasis on the Infinity Engine and stuff, the route running would be much more represented in the gameplay - bad cuts, some stumbles/more rounded turns, not able to maintain the best line on the route, etc. I would have thought that in 13 - the Welker's of the world would have been much stronger

Route running is just another way to make a guy "appear" to be slower or faster. This was one of the arguments in the "speed is speed" thread. EA often confuses route running, vision, or play recognition with speed. Brian Urlacher sniffed out a screen pass last night against the Lions against two blockers to take down the RB for no gain. Did he get there in time because he was faster than LeShoure? Of course not. He got there quicker because of his play recognition and instincts. Did Jerry Rice gain a 5 yard cushion on a DB because he was faster than most of them? Hardly. It was because he was able to run routes at full speed and gain separation through the break on his route. Too often people confuse speed with other attributes that can be qualified.