Jose Bautista - Rake or Fake?

[jaiman]

What do you guys think? Is he for real? Is this just a lucky year? Do you think the Jays should keep him or trade him? Where would he fit best?

[Chip Douglass]

Probably both.

There's no way he's going to sustain that HR/FB ratio, but the batted ball numbers do show that he's hitting significantly less grounders and significantly more flyballs compared to 2009. Hitting that many flyballs will ensure that he'll continue to hit the longball even as his HR/FB ratio drops, just not at his current rate.

His drop in GB% is the seventh biggest year-to-year drop in the last decade. That's something I chalk to legit improvement.

[jth1331]

Its improvement, but come on, a guy suddenly at the age of 29, who'll turn 30 in October, is going to turn it on and crank out 45+ homeruns every year.
This year will be an outlier, where he is projected to hit 48 homeruns. Best thing is probably the fact he is getting on base more, taking more walks. Heck, he could be a Sammy Sosa case who I'd say really became that premier, elite status player at the age of 30 and then produced 5 years of elite play.
So maybe Bautista has finally made it click and he'll be an elite homerun threat, or maybe he's a one hit wonder like we've seen in the past. Like Richard Hidalgo, Brady Anderson, Bobby Higginson, Terrence Long.

[Chip Douglass]

Quote: Originally Posted by jth1331

Best thing is probably the fact he is getting on base more, taking more walks.

2009 BB%: 13.9%
2010 BB%: 13.6%

The best thing is the fact that he leads MLB in HRs despite being a lead-off hitter with marginal power for much of his career.

[SPTO]

This is the biggest discussion on Toronto sports radio right now. There's legit arguments on both sides of the coin. I almost want to say that this is a true blossoming but then it's just so sudden. Then again, he did hit 10 HRs in September last year. It's most likely going to be his career year but I do think he'll settle into a nice 20-25 HR pace for the next couple years. The question is, is it worth it to keep him because by the time the Jays are a true contender he may not be the bat that he was the previous 3 years.

I say strike while the iron is hot, if the Jays get an amazing deal offered to them make it without hesitation. This is one of those situations where it's better to err on the side of caution then to fall in love with a guy.

[DrJones]

Quote: Originally Posted by SPTO

The question is, is it worth it to keep him because by the time the Jays are a true contender

...either hell will have frozen over, or MLB will have realigned/changed their postseason format. I'm not holding my breath for either.

[SPTO]

Quote: Originally Posted by DrJones

...either hell will have frozen over, or MLB will have realigned/changed their postseason format. I'm not holding my breath for either.

Anthopoulos wants the team to be younger and more athletic which is a model that the Rays have built themselves off of. It's not entirely impossible for the Jays to be contenders down the road if there's a good foundation then I'll bet you dollars to doughnuts that Big Red will open up the wallet to get big name guys in a Jays uniform.

[jth1331]

Quote: Originally Posted by Olson-for-Heisman

2009 BB%: 13.9% 2010 BB%: 13.6% The best thing is the fact that he leads MLB in HRs despite being a lead-off hitter with marginal power for much of his career.

I'm sort of taking it to the tune of his whole career here buddy, and his walks have increased each year, leading to getting on base more, making him a more effective player.

Lead off hitter? Was he really a lead off hitter? I didn't think he was with the Pirates and Jays, but if he was, he's the worst leadoff hitter imaginal right now for me.