The Most Important Baseball Stat?

[dkgojackets]

Quote: Originally Posted by Blzer

If OBP is the winner, then Barry Bonds is still by far and large the biggest threat in baseball.

Few will deny that he is way up the list.

[snepp]

Quote: Originally Posted by BlyGilmore

I agree Joe. That's part of the problem i have with strict SABR folks - they completely take the humans out of the equation and instead see everything as numbers.

No they don't, this is a stereotype fed largely by old, stubborn, and in many cases closed-minded baseball writers who feel threatened by something they either don't understand, or don't want to put any effort into understanding.

Quote: Originally Posted by BlyGilmore

Take Game 4 in the 2004 ALCS. A strict SABR team wouldn't have won that game. Roberts never would have stolen second because stats tell you its not a safe gamble - he's more likely to score not stealing over time than he is by stealing and risking getting thrown out. Hell - a player like Roberts might not have even been on that team.

Again, malarkey. Roberts has a career stolen base success rate of 81.2%, well above the generally accepted SABRmetric break even point of 75%. SABRmetrics doesn't frown upon stolen bases, contrary to popular opinion (see previous statement), unless you're unsuccessful at such a rate that you begin costing a team runs.

[dkgojackets]

Quote: Originally Posted by BlyGilmore

Take Game 4 in the 2004 ALCS. A strict SABR team wouldn't have won that game. Roberts never would have stolen second because stats tell you its not a safe gamble - he's more likely to score not stealing over time than he is by stealing and risking getting thrown out. Hell - a player like Roberts might not have even been on that team.

Wrong. Did you even read Moneyball, or are you one of the many who comment on something they don't know?

Roberts' career SB% is 82%. That is well over the break-even point as determined in Moneyball (about 70). It WAS the sabrmetic move to make.

[Sully]

I like to think the most important stat in baseball is wins.

[Skerik]

VORP > all.

[Bigtonyclark]

Also, to add on the point both snepp and Dkgojackets just made about the Roberts steal, the steal had a very high leverage index and increased the Red Sox's chances of winning significantly. The steal is in fact supported by statistics.So yes, a "strict" SABR would have had Roberts take the steal because of the situation and Roberts' success rate.

That is another misconception about sabremetricians. Most people think they don't support stealing bases, when in fact, we, or they, don't support stupid and illogical base stealing. Most teams do seem to be smarting up about base stealing though, as the majority had a success over 75%...

[krishna]

obp isnt how often a player gets on base. dont pretend it is.

[Stu]

Quote: Originally Posted by Bigtonyclark

That is another misconception about sabremetricians. Most people think they don't support stealing bases, when in fact, we, or they, don't support stupid base stealing. Most teams do seem to be smarting up about base stealing though, as the majority had a success over 75%...

Exactly. The point is that stolen bases (or bunts, or any other in game strategy) have their place, but shouldn't be used when the situation doesn't call for it.

You guys (OS writers) really need to stop telling us what Sabr folks think or don't think. You're really showing off your lack of knowledge on this topic.