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MVP
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The Great Ratings Debate (long)
The Great Ratings Debate
“I know how passionate you guys are about your basketball over at Operation Sports.”
--Kobe Bryant
You really have no idea Kobe Bean Bryant…BELIEVE ME. Given the community outcry after ratings were released yesterday I’ll go on record and say neither did I. Looking at some of the responses, I really have to laugh out loud. I’ve seen promises to inflict bodily harm on the developers and people threaten to overdose with strong medication if their favorite player wasn’t “fixed”—now that’s PASSION. First and Foremost, let me also go on record and say that I LOVE THE RATINGS. I DO. In Part 2 of my NBA 2K Top 20 List I listed BAD Ratings as the #3 most critical issue in gameplay. It’s simply that important and all-encompassing. I applaud the courage it took for the developer team to lower the ratings of some of Virtual Basketball’s Sacred Cows. That said, the system could have used a little more consistency. When I looked over the ratings I loved how injured players had their ratings drop and it seemed to follow a rule—UNTIL I looked at Gilbert Arenas. I loved how rookies seemed much lower than actual NBA starters—until I saw James Harden and Blake Griffin. I loved how guys who didn’t defend got rated as one-dimensional—until I saw…well, you get the picture. I think this is what frustrates the community and makes this such a hot-button issue, The ratings don’t seem to follow a set pattern. But let’s keep in mind what’s MOST IMPORTANT: How the game PLAYS. Amare Stoudemire’s Ratings are largely a non-issue as long as he plays like his real-life counterpart. Last year many users felt like players like Kobe and Lebron were unstoppable. I can’t tell you how many frustrated threads I read that complained about gameplay that let cheesers cross-over or bully their way to the basket for dunks in traffic over their entire defense on a regular basis. What if lower ratings has resolved this? Wouldn’t it be a great day in Hoops Gaming? I tend think it would. So please, let’s put the cyanide capsules down for just a minute until we actually see how these new ratings affect the game. 2K has earned atleast that much trust from us over these last 10 years.
In the interest of consistency though, I will point out some of the glaring issues many posters have with the new ratings. Not that they are BAD per se…just somewhat puzzling.
Nothing drives Sports Gamers crazier than seeing rookies come in with ratings that are too high (I still laugh about Reggie Bush’s 88 in Madden 2008)”But he’s the next big thing! He’s gonna DOMINATE!” some clown will yell. Oh yeah? Just like Jonathan Bender, Stromile Swift, Darius Miles (the next “KG” remember that?) Marcus Fizer, Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, Eddy Curry, Eddie Griffin (R.I.P) Rodney White, Jay Williams, Dajuan Wagner, Darko (so infamous he only goes by one name) Ndudi Ebi (allegedly the second-best high-schooler in Lebron’s class) Shaun Livingston, Sebastian Telfair, Adam Morrison (“Bird-like” is how many scouts referred to him) and Tyrus Thomas did? Should I go on? The list is endless, really. I’ve been a sports fan long enough to know that there is no hard and fast rule that says “this guy is GUARANTEED." injuries, talent level, off-court distractions, ANYTHING can turn a gem into a bust. So imagine the look on most faces when we saw rookies come in with ratings higher than good and solid established veterans who’ve shown that they can play in the league. This should never happen, I’m from the “You go UP (your rating) when you SHOW UP.” school of thinking. 1st round rookies should be rated a 60 (with a few exceptions—but nothing higher than a 65) Second rounders in the 50’s. Anything past the second round? 40 overall until we see what they’re made of. These player’s ratings can be updated after the first month of the season just like everyone else if it’s warranted.
While I’m a big STATS guy, I know one thing. Numbers lie….all the time. What you have to do is look INTO the numbers. Did this player play for a perennially bad team? Did he lead his team? How’d he match-up against the league’s best? What about Awards? While I hate the politics of All-Star voting, consistently making the All-Star game and awards like Defensive Player of the Year, MVP and First/Second or Third-Team All-NBA say alot. What about the talent on his team? Is this player the first option? Or can he pick and choose his spots and contribute semi-consistently because there are 3 All-Stars playing with him? How does he perform in the playoffs? The list of potential intangibles is ENDLESS.
“You play to win the game!” Herm Edwards said this in 2002 and honestly its one of the intangibles I use to rate players. WINS. In short, rating a player who grabs 20 points and 10 rebounds for Minnesota (a bottom-dwelling team) Isn’t the same as rating a player who goes for 20 points and 10 rebounds for Orlando (a playoff team). A popular coach once said “it’s easy to score twenty when you’re DOWN twenty.” It’s a good point, I can remember Marvin Harrison catching 143 passes for the Colts in 2002 and being amazed until I saw him in a late season game against the Giants (the Colts lost 44-27) where he racked up countless 8 yard catches on 3rd and 10. What’s the point exactly? Sure the STATS may LOOK good, but they don’t mean as much.
Basketball’s Five Tools are Shooting, Passing, Defense, Driving and Posting. A Five Tool player can beat a defense consistently in all of these ways. Now while true five tool players are rare (KG, Scottie Pippen and Jordan come to mind though) there are many Stars and Superstars who while they might not be able to beat defenses with all Five Tools, they are dominant enough in the tools they have to be considered Elite. Allen Iverson comes to mind, during his prime he was only a Two Tool player (Driving and Shooting) and even though he was a streaky shooter, his combination of a Dominating Driving to the Basket game and respect of the officials made him a Superstar. That said, we tend to rate 5 Tool Players a bit higher because of their versatility and the lack of weaknesses in their games.
Consistency is another of the major aspects of rating players. While averaging 20ppg in your rookie year is certainly impressive, doing it for the first five years of your career is even moreso. A consistent high level of play means alot when it comes to ratings. It shows a player is fire-tested, proven and establishes a standard of what we can expect from them on a yearly basis. A history of good play can be the difference in rating a player above the controversial “80 barrier”. While O.J. Mayo and Eric Gordon both had very good individual rookie seasons, they did them on perennial losing teams and we only have one year of numbers to judge them with. Michael Redd on the other hand, has 6 straight seasons averaging 21ppg (with 3 of those years in the playoffs) so there’ s no issue giving him an 80+ rating. I like to look at the entire career putting the most emphasis on the last two seasons.
Here are a few of the ratings/players pointed out by many members of the Sports Gaming Community as flawed or inconsistent. I’ve made an attempt to explain/validate or support these ratings when given the chance. However, i’ve also pointed out obvious errors when they present themselves.
Roster Legend:
Elite Player 90 – 99
All-Star/Second-Tier Level Player 85-89
Good Player 80-84
Average/Solid Player 70-79
Bench Contributor/1st round draft picks 60-69
Some-Time Bench contributor/2nd round draft picks 50-59
End-of-Roster Player/player drafted after the 2nd round (seldom plays) 40-49
Rondo – Poor guy, he seems to be the main culprit at the cusp of the ratings debate. Either people LOVE his rating (87) or HATE it. I think he had a great run in the playoffs and I think he’s a very good PG. He has a title, gives you penetration, defense and distributes well and surprisingly gives you rebounding too. Although he still can’t beat defenses consistently from the perimeter. But do I think he’s better than Devin Harris (a wash—with Rondo you get slightly more assists, but Harris gives you better outside shooting and twice the scoring) Derrick Rose (who was a rookie and the best player on his team while Rondo was in his 3rd season and the third option for Boston) Tony Parker (again better shooting and twice the scoring, not to mention 7 years straight of 15ppg and 5 apg) Billups (gives you everything, not to mention he has 9 straight years of 13ppg and 6apg) or Steve Nash? (5 straight years of 15ppg and 10 apg) Naaah…I just can’t see it. Based on what? 2 years of 10ppg and 5apg and a GREAT playoffs? Rondo’s good but these guys have showed a greater body of work, much more consistency and have less “holes” in their games. Rondo’s more in the 78 range.
Arenas – Injured players seemed to follow a model where they were rated a great deal lower than their last level of play until we looked at Arenas’ rating. An 84? He’s essentially missed two whole years. In comparison Michael Redd (who I rated an 85) missed one year and dropped to a 76. Gilbert? 79.
Nowitzki – I sorta follow the logic here. Dirk’s the most versatile scorer of all the Power Forwards in the NBA, but he’s below average at Defense, Rebounding (8.4rpg) and Posting. So they gave him a one-dimensional rating. Here’s the thing: His one dimension is flat out DOMINATING (26ppg three of the last five years) and he still leads his team to the playoffs every year. The simple question is this: Is he still Elite? YES--Dirk’s still a 91 in my eyes.
Duncan – an 88? Hmmm…look at the intangibles. Playoffs? CHECK.Titles? CHECK. Awards? CHECK. A 20 an 10 average since he stepped on the floor? WOW…While he isn’t as dominating as he once and on the decline, his numbers last year (19.3ppg/10.7rpg) show he’s still a 90.
Garnett –89? Now that’s just TEASING for no reason…he's on the decline, but if there’s anyone who deserves a 90 it’s this guy. A True Five Tool Player (gave you 20 ppg, 10 rpg and 4 apg for a decade before going to Boston) who might be one of the best ever on defense. Sure he got hurt last year, but that just means he goes DOWN to a 90.
Al Jefferson – This guy’s last two years have given us 21ppg, 11 rpg and 1.6 blocks. GOOD STUFF. Those are Elite PF numbers. I had to subtract for injuries and for playing in Minnesota though, 84.
Harden – I have alot of respect for what this guy did at Arizona State, but let’s be honest—that was COLLEGE. He’s a rookie who hasn’t dribbled a ball in the NBA yet and he’s rated higher than one all-star (Rashard Lewis) and the same as another (Turkoglu) Huh? How? This guy’s a rookie and should start the season as a 60 with most of the other First Rounders.
Tony Parker – This one is more of a perspective issue than anything else. While Chris Paul is the best PG in the league, is he TEN points better than TP? I doubt it. 22 ppg and 7 apg while shooting 50% from the field last year? He’s a 91. PERIOD.
Gasol – I’m not trying to make the rich, RICHER but have you seen this guy play? 19 and 10 last year while shooting 57% (he shot 59% the year before that) That’s serious production. Although the fact that he wasn’t ever able to take the Grizzlies to the playoffs keeps him out of the Elite range. But just barely—he’s an 88.
Kobe – No argument here. I had him rated a 98 but after seeing the ratings, I agreed and lowered him (97) and Lebron (who’s a 96 now) a point based on how they were too-good last year. The most polished scorer in the league, but very overrated as a defender. Following the Phil Jackson mantra of using tall defenders to disrupt the opponent’s PG (pure genius). Kobe made his reputation defending players like Damon Stoudemire, Travis Best and Bibby (guys he has a 6-7 inch height advantage on) and while he was able to frustrate them, he’s not an Elite defender, merely a solid one. Doubt me? Look at his track record defending players his size who can actually put the ball in the basket. Bonzi Wells used to OWN him and what Carmelo did to him in the post in last year’s playoffs was CRIMINAL. It’s a good thing superstars with the respect of the officials don’t get regularly whistled for fouls—because he would have been gone by HALFTIME.
McGrady – I don’t really get this one, While he’s been injury prone for the last couple of years, TMac’s given us 8 straight years of 20 ppg, 5 apg and 5 rpg and we let one year where he’s hurt (and still goes for 15/5/5) transform him into a 74? Come now….McGrady was a second-tier player before the injury and shouldn’t drop lower than an 85 after one year of being hurt.
Turkoglu – Him and Rashard Lewis are close in rating and playing style. SORT OF. Both are good shooters and 6-10 finesse guys that don’t like to post-up. Hedo gives you passing and has the handle to beat guys to the basket though. 85.
Rashard Lewis – Like Hedo but more of a stationary, spot-up guy. 84.
Dwight Howard – The simple question here is: Is he Elite? EASY. 93.
Carmelo – His playoffs and domination of any and all defenders (including Kobe Bryant) proved his Elite status. His willingness to mix it up in the post also makes him the best pure scorer in the league (Cleveland fans only wish Lebron could use his 6-8 and 270 pounds like Melo does) not in the Kobe, Lebron, Wade class, but not far behind either. 92.
Amar’e – Was he hurt last year? Sure, but he’s come back from that before. Did he still give you 21 and 9 and 53% from the field for the third year in a row? YUP. His team missing the playoffs without him shows he’s still one of the Elite PF’s in the league. 90.
Deng – One year of injuries and we drop this guy to average status? NOT SO FAST. 77.
Brad Miller – Hold on…a 65? This guy gave you 11 ppg and 7 rpg for a playoff team. That’s solid play any way you slice it. 73.
John Salmons – This guy’s production (18.7ppg, 41% from 3pt range, 47% FG, 84% FT) Didn’t go ANYWHERE when he left Sacramento. There’s a reason the Bulls/Celtics went seven games. 78.
Tyreke Evans – Sigh…another guy who hasn’t played an NBA minute who’s rated higher than veteran NBA starters. Why? In comparison, Louis Williams is a first-time starter but he’s averaged 12 ppg the last two years off the bench and was the NBA's only non-starter to go the FT line over 300 times last year (385). Evans is a 60 like all first-round rookies should be.
Jonny Flynn – See Above.
Blake Griffin –While I don’t like to rate rookies any higher than a 60, Griffin is the exception. That said, we still haven’t seen him in NBA action. I gave him a 65.
Stephen Curry – The other guy I think is separated from the rest of the first-round pack. I rated him a 62.
Brand – Has missed a season and a half and posted 13 ppg and 9 rpg last year in 29 games. This season determines his rating in the future, but for a player who was an 89 in 2006, I don’t see him any lower than an 80 right now.
Billups – Even a blind man can see the influence this guy had on the Nuggets. They went from high-scoring first round exit to legitimate contender. Production? Mr. Big Shot still gives you 18 ppg, 6 apg, 91% FT and 41% 3 pt. He’s an 88.
I’ve included the revised ratings of the entire NBA in an excel file. I’m proposing a pretty unique and groundbreaking idea to the SIM community. It’s called the Roster Project. Ratings and Rosters have been somewhat “off” the last couple of years with inconsistent ratings and missing players and NBA 2K deserves better. In truth, while I had so much respect for what Roster Guru Rashidi did in the past, doing a roster is too big a project for one person. What we need is one person per team (preferably someone who can watch the games of the team they’re assigned to) so that Ratings Ebbs and Flows and roster fluctuations aren’t missed. Now we aren’t looking for Homer Ratings and foolishness like “Did you see the Dunk (insert player name here) did on SportsCenter last night? His dunking should be a 99!” We want and need educated, objective analysis that follows the system of the Ratings Legend we touched on above. We’ll follow the NBA standard of rating players on a monthly basis so that we can get accurate numbers. If you’ve ever complained about ratings or missing players (chuckle..or our friend the 2K insider) here’s your chance to make a sincere contribution to possibly making NBA 2K a better game.
PM me if you’re interested.
Kushmir
Last edited by Kushmir; 09-30-2009 at 05:19 PM.
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09-26-2009, 01:14 PM
