Why Shot Timings Need Revision on SS & HoF

[luda06]

Start at 3:26 for testing methods

Note: The research here isn't not entirely scientific, nor did I have any intent on making it so.

In NBA 2K15, jump-shooting field goal percentages are wildly inconsistent on difficulties higher than All-Star. There are a variety factors for this, including shot release timings and player ratings. Furthermore, the actual field goal percentages in competitive matches are weighted heavily towards shot release timings in contrast to how open a shooter is, relative to the defense. Player ratings appear to be a crutch for whenever a user attains a good, but not perfect release. Field goal percentages in NBA 2K15’s “Freestyle” practice mode illustrates the discrepancy between release timings, player ratings, and actual field goal pecentages in the NBA.

A sample of five players were chosen (Kyle Korver, Wesley Matthews, Klay Thompson, Brandon Jennings, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope) out of the NBA’s top volume/percentage shooters in catch-and-shoot situations this season. None were chosen in any specific order, but at random, outside of the latter two players (though they still qualify with the other players). Each player attempted at least 100 shot attempts, shooting the ball within 2 seconds of catching it without dribbling (per the NBA’s definition of catch-and-shoot).

Kyle Korver’s shooting release is smooth and predictable. Not incredibily fast or slow, however a decent player should be able to attain good shot releases using him. However, no perfect shot release timings were attained within 100 shots. Korver converted 38 shots (38%). He also has what may be NBA 2K15’s highest standing 3 point rating at 94. Korver’s actual catch-and-shoot field goal percentage is 56% on 5.6 attempts per game (16 games played).

Wesley Matthews’ release is definitely the quickest of the five players sampled. However, his release also one of the most predictable in the sample as well. This combination of predictability and quickness enables Matthews as an elite marksman regardless of his 88 standing 3 point shot rating from three point range. He has a fair amount of hot spots on the perimeter, further augmenting his marksmanship in NBA 2K15. 32 perfect release timings were achieved, and Matthews converted 65 of 102 attempts from the perimeter (63%). Matthews is currently shooting 41% in catch-and-shoot situations on 6.3 attempts per game (18 games).

Klay Thompson has the slowest shot release of all of the players, as his shooting form has him releasing the ball at the apex of his jump, which is compounded further by his two-motion shooting animation. His release is slightly more difficult than Korver’s to predict, but still moderately easy to memorize. Thompson converted 69 of 102 shots with 23 perfect attempts (68%). His standing 3 point rating is 91 overall. He is currently shooting 42% on 6.1 catch-and-shoot attempts per game (16 games played).

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has an average shot release timing. However, his release is extremely predictable, due to his elbows being almost perpendicular to the ball when it is time for him to release the shot. He has a standing 3 point rating of 78. He converted 70 out of 114 attempts (61%), with 39 perfectly timed releases. His catch-and-shoot FG% is 38% on 5.2 attempts per game this season (18 games).

Brandon Jennings also has an average shot release timing. His release is also predictable due to the nature of him using his left hand to gather and shoot the ball, allowing users to quickly identify when the ball is at its apex. There is a frustrating level of difficulty with his release, similar to Korver’s. Regardless of the attempts, attaining an actual perfect timing is much more difficult than the other three players. He was the first of the players sampled, in which he converted 98 of 225 attempts (43%), with one perfectly timed release. His standing 3 point rating is 81, and is currently shooting 52% in catch-and-shoot situations on 2.1 attempts per game (18 games).

In conclusion, the inconsistent shooting percentages relative to player ratings have lesser relevance to actual shot release timings on the highest difficulty settings. A favorable solution would is to place less emphasis on shot release timings and place greater importance on overall shooting quality. NBA.com now features statistics for players in a variety of shooting situations that are not limited to catch-and-shoot scenarios. It should be possible for Visual Concepts to create baseline percentages for contested and non-contested shots and apply bonuses to certain players who can be considered as statistical outliers.

[Coach2K]

When the shot meter was announced here as the new fad, I specifically questioned the developer in a thread about it pointing out that the real success factor in good shooting was the release 2k assigned to that shooter. And, that many shooters were just too easy to use while other good shooters were just impossible to use as effectively mainly because of the time it takes to just launch the shot or they are to difficult to time. Let's face it, some guys just take forever to set their feet and wind up and even if you could get a good release the defense has contested.

At the time, I was given the impression that good shooters would be easier to use.

What you pointed out is that a guy like Korver, one of the best shooters in the game can basically defend himself. You don't really need to worry about him when IRL that guy demands defense and makes the game unfair for a hawks user. Sure he can get around it by not shooting threes with him but that isn't right.

Your data basically confirms the main problem with 2K this year and that's shot releases continue to be a problem and they are compounded this year by the fact that you can play hours and hours and hours and never luck into one green release with what are excellent shooters even in practice mode on HOF sim.

I hate to be critical of 2K as I'm probably its biggest fan but I'm very disappointed in so many problems with shooting at the highest level not because it's HOF sim because I can get green releases almost immediately with certain players and none EVER with others just because their releases are screwed up IMO.

Let's hope the patch addresses it.

[alabamarob]

The devs seem like smart guys. I am confident they will get this corrected by the end of this month. They know how important shooting is, and it wouldn't make much sense for them to put all this time in creating great gameplay (which they have in 15), and having very good rosters just to let the shot meter/shot mechanics drag the game down. It is irritating right now, but I don't plan on it being a long term issue.


Great Post. The numbers don't lie, and math is usually always going to point you in the right direction.

[Rockie_Fresh88]

So do you guys think they put too much on shot timing on higher difficulties ?

In older basketball games it was about good shots with good shooters . There was never a guy you wouldn't shoot with because you didn't know his release .

Just want a discussion ...

[luda06]

Quote: Originally Posted by Rockie_Fresh88

So do you guys think they put too much on shot timing on higher difficulties ? In older basketball games it was about good shots with good shooters . There was never a guy you wouldn't shoot with because you didn't know his release . Just want a discussion ...

Yes.

Higher difficulties generally required shot releases to have a more precise timing for "excellent" shots. However, the idea hardly translates into a level playing field for competitive online play or against friends.

Some teams feature players who naturally have easier shooting motions than others. Yet, in NBA 2K15, the notion of having an easy release is rendered nearly irrelevant, in the case of Korver and Jennings. Users need teams with the right players (such as Matthews or KCP), more-so than actually mastering shot timings.

[KehliahoMauiFootball]

I called cheese when this feature came out... and it has turned out that way. Shot meter had good intentions but the implementation is too susceptible to cheese. 2K14 had some flaws but I'll take that model over this. 2K14 just needed to be tweaked a little instead of rewriting the whole thing imo.

[City_foxx]

The arguement is solid, and i for one agree a larger window is needed for A or A+ shot selections on the higher dificultys.

[alabamarob]

Quote: Originally Posted by luda06

Yes. Higher difficulties generally required shot releases to have a more precise timing for "excellent" shots. However, the idea hardly translates into a level playing field for competitive online play or against friends. Some teams feature players who naturally have easier shooting motions than others. Yet, in NBA 2K15, the notion of having an easy release is rendered nearly irrelevant, in the case of Korver and Jennings. Users need teams with the right players (such as Matthews or KCP), more-so than actually mastering shot timings.

Your key point is something alot of people are missing. Even if you master korver and some other players release they still will shoot a low percentage. So the shot window for some guys are irrelevant with 2k's current roster shot releases.