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alifeincomplete · 09-14-2009, 08:06 PM

Disclaimer: I had some difficulty in selecting a forum to put this in, but I figured it is more about Madden than actual football so I've placed it here; if that's taboo, I apologize.

Who else does this? I've set up a franchise with the latest roster update (I know, it's not wholly accurate) and I adjust the depth charts based on the inactive lists for each week.

Some preface....

Earlier this year, I used NHL 09 to make predictions that fell just shy of being wholly accurate for the Cup Finals. I blame that goof on my own interference in the "science" of EA Sports; the game froze and I had to restart it--prior to the reset, the Pens won, but the Wings won the second game, which was the one I went with as the prediction. The game was 6-0 prior to that prediction goof.

The precedent...

Every year since '04, EA has run Super Bowl simulations using the newest edition of Madden. The results...

2004 - Patriots 23, Panthers 20 (Actual Score: Patriots 32, Panthers 29)
2005 - Patriots 47, Eagles 31 (Actual score: Patriots 24, Eagles 21)
2006 - Steelers 24, Seahawks 19 (Actual score: Steelers 21, Seahawks 10)
2007 - Colts 38, Bears 27 (Actual score: Colts 29, Bears 17)
2008- Patriots 38, Giants 30 (Actual score: Giants 17, Patriots 14)
2009- Steelers 28, Cardinals 24 (Actual score: Steelers 27, Cardinals 23)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden_...owl_simulation

They say that Madden NFL 10 is the most authentic football game there ever has been, so I want to see how accurate it is.

Week 1
Prediction results: 10-6
Most accurate prediction: Dallas/Tampa Bay (1 point difference)

Madden: Steelers - 20, Titans - 10
Reality: Steelers - 13, Titans - 10 (OT)
CORRECT!

Madden: Ravens - 23, Chiefs - 9
Reality: Ravens - 38, Chiefs - 24
CORRECT!

Madden: Texans - 27, Jets - 24
Reality: Jets - 24, Texans - 7
INCORRECT!

Madden: Browns - 27, Vikings - 24
Reality: Vikings 34, Browns - 20
INCORRECT!

Madden: Panthers - 24, Eagles - 7
Reality: Eagles - 38, Panthers - 10
INCORRECT!

Madden: Jaguars - 28, Colts - 21
Reality: Colts - 14, Jaguars 12
INCORRECT!

Madden: Broncos - 20, Bengals - 17
Reality: Broncos 12, Bengals 7
CORRECT!

Madden: Cowboys - 34, Buccaneers - 20
Reality: Cowboys - 34, Buccaneers - 21
CORRECT!

Madden: Saints - 17, Lions - 7
Reality: Saints - 45, Lions 27
CORRECT!

Madden: Falcons - 31, Dolphins - 28 (OT)
Reality: Falcons 19, Dolphins - 7
CORRECT!

Madden: Seahawks - 22, Rams - 3
Reality: Seahawks 28, Rams - 0
CORRECT!

Madden: Giants - 20, Redskins - 13
Reality: Giants - 23, Redskins - 17
CORRECT!

Madden: Cardinals - 27, 49ers - 24 (OT)
Reality: 49ers - 20, Cardinals - 16
INCORRECT!

Madden: Bears - 23, Packers - 21
Reality: Packers 21, Bears 15
INCORRECT!

Madden: Patriots - 27, Bills - 3
Reality: Patriots - 25, Bills - 24
CORRECT!

Madden: Chargers - 20, Raiders - 13
Reality: Chargers - 24, Raiders - 20
CORRECT!

Thoughts? Suggestions to improve the accuracy of this great guessing game? The methodology behind the first week's sims was simple and I'm looking for some refinement: 15 minute quarters with a 15 second runoff on very slow with the difficulty (not sure how much of a difference this makes in simulated games) set to All-Madden. I'm looking into using some of the sliders schemes I've seen set up by people to get more realistic stats.

fjccommish · 09-14-2009, 10:22 PM

I don't think the clock settings (such as Q length or runoff) make any difference in simulated games.

Dienekes · 09-14-2009, 11:22 PM

Pretty interesting. I would love you to keep posting your progress with this weekly. I would like to know the accuracy percentage for the year. Too bad it does not seem to do well with the spread or we could make some nice money...

alifeincomplete · 09-15-2009, 04:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dienekes


	Pretty interesting. I would love you to keep posting your progress with this weekly. I would like to know the accuracy percentage for the year. Too bad it does not seem to do well with the spread or we could make some nice money...

Oh, I intend to keep at it. My only problem will be this upcoming weekend because I'm going to be out of town for three days. I haven't decided whether or not to sim the games before I leave or after the fact and do retrospective predictions. Doing the sims after I get back on Sunday night would be beneficial because I may not catch all of the last-minute inactives if I sim it before hand.

It went 10-6 in its first week so I'm hoping to at least get that for Week 2.

CMH · 09-15-2009, 04:14 PM

Are you simming or CPU-vs.-CPU?

alifeincomplete · 09-15-2009, 04:24 PM

Simming each game. I tried to go CPU v CPU and let it play out while I did other things, but the game I tested that for (Buffalo/New England) was absurd--the Patriots won 98-6. Any suggestions on how to prevent that?

alifeincomplete · 09-21-2009, 12:50 AM

Week 2
Prediction results: 9-7
Most accurate prediction: Carolina/Atlanta (3 pt difference)

Madden: Oakland 23, Kansas City 18
Reality: Oakland 13, Kansas City 10
CORRECT!

Madden: Arizona 35, Jacksonville 28
Reality: Arizona 31, Jacksonville 17
CORRECT!

Madden: Minnesota 20, Detroit 13
Reality: Minnesota 27, Detroit 13
CORRECT!

Madden: Green Bay 27, Cincinnati 10
Reality: Cincinnati 31, Green Bay 24
INCORRECT!

Madden: Tennessee 28, Houston 7
Reality: Houston 34, Tennessee 31
INCORRECT!
Madden: Washington 28, St Louis 21
Reality: Washington 9, St Louis 7
CORRECT!

Madden: Atlanta 26, Carolina 21
Reality: Atlanta 28, Carolina 20
CORRECT!

Madden: New England 20, New York Jets 13
Reality: New York Jets 16, New England 9
INCORRECT!

Madden: New Orleans 41, Philadelphia 24
Reality: New Orleans 48, Philadelphia 22
CORRECT!

Madden: San Francisco 24, Seattle 14
Reality: San Francisco 23, Seattle 10
CORRECT!

Madden: Tampa Bay 10, Buffalo 3
Reality: Buffalo 33, Tampa Bay 20
INCORRECT!

Madden: Denver 31, Cleveland 28
Reality: Denver 27, Cleveland 6
CORRECT!

Madden: San Diego 21, Baltimore 10
Reality: Baltimore 31, San Diego 26
INCORRECT!

Madden: Pittsburgh 19, Chicago 13
Reality: Chicago 17, Pittsburgh 14
INCORRECT!

Madden: Dallas 30, New York Giants 10
Reality: New York Giants 33, Dallas 31
INCORRECT!

Madden: Indianapolis 33, Miami 13
Reality: Indianapolis 27, Miami 23
CORRECT!

MatrixTN · 09-21-2009, 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alifeincomplete


	Madden: Minnesota 10, Detroit 13 Reality: Minnesota 27, Detroit 13[/font]

Typo or oversight? Shouldn't this be wrong?

09-14-2009, 08:06 PM	#1
alifeincomplete I bent my Wookiee! OVR: 11 Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,263 Blog Entries: 20	The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus) Disclaimer: I had some difficulty in selecting a forum to put this in, but I figured it is more about Madden than actual football so I've placed it here; if that's taboo, I apologize. Who else does this? I've set up a franchise with the latest roster update (I know, it's not wholly accurate) and I adjust the depth charts based on the inactive lists for each week. Some preface.... Earlier this year, I used NHL 09 to make predictions that fell just shy of being wholly accurate for the Cup Finals. I blame that goof on my own interference in the "science" of EA Sports; the game froze and I had to restart it--prior to the reset, the Pens won, but the Wings won the second game, which was the one I went with as the prediction. The game was 6-0 prior to that prediction goof. The precedent... Every year since '04, EA has run Super Bowl simulations using the newest edition of Madden. The results... 2004 - Patriots 23, Panthers 20 (Actual Score: Patriots 32, Panthers 29) 2005 - Patriots 47, Eagles 31 (Actual score: Patriots 24, Eagles 21) 2006 - Steelers 24, Seahawks 19 (Actual score: Steelers 21, Seahawks 10) 2007 - Colts 38, Bears 27 (Actual score: Colts 29, Bears 17) 2008- Patriots 38, Giants 30 (Actual score: Giants 17, Patriots 14) 2009- Steelers 28, Cardinals 24 (Actual score: Steelers 27, Cardinals 23) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madden_...owl_simulation They say that Madden NFL 10 is the most authentic football game there ever has been, so I want to see how accurate it is. Week 1 Prediction results: 10-6 Most accurate prediction: Dallas/Tampa Bay (1 point difference) Madden: Steelers - 20, Titans - 10 Reality: Steelers - 13, Titans - 10 (OT) CORRECT! Madden: Ravens - 23, Chiefs - 9 Reality: Ravens - 38, Chiefs - 24 CORRECT! Madden: Texans - 27, Jets - 24 Reality: Jets - 24, Texans - 7 INCORRECT! Madden: Browns - 27, Vikings - 24 Reality: Vikings 34, Browns - 20 INCORRECT! Madden: Panthers - 24, Eagles - 7 Reality: Eagles - 38, Panthers - 10 INCORRECT! Madden: Jaguars - 28, Colts - 21 Reality: Colts - 14, Jaguars 12 INCORRECT! Madden: Broncos - 20, Bengals - 17 Reality: Broncos 12, Bengals 7 CORRECT! Madden: Cowboys - 34, Buccaneers - 20 Reality: Cowboys - 34, Buccaneers - 21 CORRECT! Madden: Saints - 17, Lions - 7 Reality: Saints - 45, Lions 27 CORRECT! Madden: Falcons - 31, Dolphins - 28 (OT) Reality: Falcons 19, Dolphins - 7 CORRECT! Madden: Seahawks - 22, Rams - 3 Reality: Seahawks 28, Rams - 0 CORRECT! Madden: Giants - 20, Redskins - 13 Reality: Giants - 23, Redskins - 17 CORRECT! Madden: Cardinals - 27, 49ers - 24 (OT) Reality: 49ers - 20, Cardinals - 16 INCORRECT! Madden: Bears - 23, Packers - 21 Reality: Packers 21, Bears 15 INCORRECT! Madden: Patriots - 27, Bills - 3 Reality: Patriots - 25, Bills - 24 CORRECT! Madden: Chargers - 20, Raiders - 13 Reality: Chargers - 24, Raiders - 20 CORRECT! Thoughts? Suggestions to improve the accuracy of this great guessing game? The methodology behind the first week's sims was simple and I'm looking for some refinement: 15 minute quarters with a 15 second runoff on very slow with the difficulty (not sure how much of a difference this makes in simulated games) set to All-Madden. I'm looking into using some of the sliders schemes I've seen set up by people to get more realistic stats. Last edited by alifeincomplete; 09-27-2009 at 03:18 PM.

09-14-2009, 11:22 PM	#3
Dienekes Pro OVR: 7 Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Hide-Away-Hills, Ohio	Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus) Pretty interesting. I would love you to keep posting your progress with this weekly. I would like to know the accuracy percentage for the year. Too bad it does not seem to do well with the spread or we could make some nice money...

09-15-2009, 04:14 PM	#5
CMH Making you famous OVR: 46 Join Date: Oct 2002 Location: Ormond Beach, FL Posts: 26,235 Blog Entries: 1	Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus) Are you simming or CPU-vs.-CPU? __________________ "It may well be that we spectators, who are not divinely gifted as athletes, are the only ones able to truly see, articulate and animate the experience of the gift we are denied. And that those who receive and act out the gift of athletic genius must, perforce, be blind and dumb about it -- and not because blindness and dumbness are the price of the gift, but because they are its essence." - David Foster Wallace "You'll not find more penny-wise/pound-foolish behavior than in Major League Baseball." - Rob Neyer

09-15-2009, 04:24 PM	#6
alifeincomplete I bent my Wookiee! OVR: 11 Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,263 Blog Entries: 20	Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus) Simming each game. I tried to go CPU v CPU and let it play out while I did other things, but the game I tested that for (Buffalo/New England) was absurd--the Patriots won 98-6. Any suggestions on how to prevent that?

09-21-2009, 12:50 AM	#7
alifeincomplete I bent my Wookiee! OVR: 11 Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,263 Blog Entries: 20	Re: The Great Madden Muppet Caper (aka, Madden as Nostradamus) Week 2 Prediction results: 9-7 Most accurate prediction: Carolina/Atlanta (3 pt difference) Madden: Oakland 23, Kansas City 18 Reality: Oakland 13, Kansas City 10 CORRECT! Madden: Arizona 35, Jacksonville 28 Reality: Arizona 31, Jacksonville 17 CORRECT! Madden: Minnesota 20, Detroit 13 Reality: Minnesota 27, Detroit 13 CORRECT! Madden: Green Bay 27, Cincinnati 10 Reality: Cincinnati 31, Green Bay 24 INCORRECT! Madden: Tennessee 28, Houston 7 Reality: Houston 34, Tennessee 31 INCORRECT! Madden: Washington 28, St Louis 21 Reality: Washington 9, St Louis 7 CORRECT! Madden: Atlanta 26, Carolina 21 Reality: Atlanta 28, Carolina 20 CORRECT! Madden: New England 20, New York Jets 13 Reality: New York Jets 16, New England 9 INCORRECT! Madden: New Orleans 41, Philadelphia 24 Reality: New Orleans 48, Philadelphia 22 CORRECT! Madden: San Francisco 24, Seattle 14 Reality: San Francisco 23, Seattle 10 CORRECT! Madden: Tampa Bay 10, Buffalo 3 Reality: Buffalo 33, Tampa Bay 20 INCORRECT! Madden: Denver 31, Cleveland 28 Reality: Denver 27, Cleveland 6 CORRECT! Madden: San Diego 21, Baltimore 10 Reality: Baltimore 31, San Diego 26 INCORRECT! Madden: Pittsburgh 19, Chicago 13 Reality: Chicago 17, Pittsburgh 14 INCORRECT! Madden: Dallas 30, New York Giants 10 Reality: New York Giants 33, Dallas 31 INCORRECT! Madden: Indianapolis 33, Miami 13 Reality: Indianapolis 27, Miami 23 CORRECT! Last edited by alifeincomplete; 09-22-2009 at 12:20 PM.

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09-14-2009, 10:22 PM	#2
fjccommish Banned OVR: 11 Join Date: Oct 2008	I don't think the clock settings (such as Q length or runoff) make any difference in simulated games.

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