Scaled Speed Not Making any Sense...

[Dj_MyTime]

So I know a lot has been made of the scaled speed, but looking at some of these numbers I’m wondering just how much thought was actually put into this and where are these seemingly opinion based numbers coming from.

There are PLENTY of examples but I’ll leave the comparison to perhaps just a few-

WR -Ted Ginn Jr. (4.28, 40, age 30)-88 speed 91 acc vs MLB-Bobby Wagner(4.46, 40, age 25)- 88 speed 91 acc

So my stance is not that Wagner isn’t rated correctly but wrather why is Ted Ginn rated so low. Some players games are directly related to their speeds, they’re best utilized in space, and in the return game. And he’s still regarded as one of the more dynamic returners in the league, aside from most primes being between the ages of 25-32 I’m just not seeing a reason for such a drastic decline in speed formerly (97).

If you guys have examples please share them, I’m not aking for a return to 97 as maybe he’s lost some speed which I’d wager as minimal, so considering the scaled back ratings 92-94 seems fair.

Thoughts…?

[dat boi Q]

Just something else they implemented but didn't flush out like they were supposed to. But someone here will come up with a defense for them.

[wundrbread33]

I know what you mean...no way Wagner could keep up with Ginn. I could not believe they gave Ginn an 88 speed rating.

And it isn't like Ginn is some no name player that they overlooked. Most every person who keeps up with college or pro football would recognize the name "Ted Ginn" regardless of his success or lack there of as a receiver...and they all know he is fast.

There are reports from the Panthers training camp that he is as fast as ever and immediately walked into camp as the fastest player on the team. He would be the fastest player on many teams.

[Godgers12]

Sam Shields only being 92 SPD 88 acc is a joke, he is a top 3 fastest CB in the NFL, yet there are about 30 faster CBs than him including an UDFA CB on the Packers.

[bspring3]

It doesnt really make sense why they did it this way but they took age into account when doing speed. So the older the player is, the more they knocked speed down for that player. I assume their reasoning is, 40 times are from when a player is a rookie, so the older they are the slower they will become. I did a quick test to verify my theory and it seems to be true. I compared a number of players 40 times vs speed and then made an "adjusted speed" that accounts for how long players have been in the NFL. This was done by basically adding one point to their speed for every year they have played. I have this info below. You can see how the speed ratings make much more sense if you take age into account. Again this isn't the best method in my opinion as you can debate whether speed should regress that much. But it is a method and not random.

[Allball76]

Quote: Originally Posted by bspring3

It doesnt really make sense why they did it this way but they took age into account when doing speed. So the older the player is, the more they knocked speed down for that player. I assume their reasoning is, 40 times are from when a player is a rookie, so the older they are the slower they will become. I did a quick test to verify my theory and it seems to be true. I compared a number of players 40 times vs speed and then made an "adjusted speed" that accounts for how long players have been in the NFL. This was done by basically adding one point to their speed for every year they have played. I have this info below. You can see how the speed ratings make much more sense if you take age into account. Again this isn't the best method in my opinion as you can debate whether speed should regress that much. But it is a method and not random.

I think they take into account game speed if you look at Deshawn Jackson 4.3 isn't the fastest 40 time ever but at one time he was 99 speed . Chris Johnson ran a 4.2 and was a 99 speed ! But Jackson on the field in pads just fly's and so dose Adrian Peteson ,also a 4.4 isn't the fastest ever once again . But in pads Peterson has shown he breaks away alot ! I think just because your track fast don't mean u get 99 speed but on the field you never broke a long run or caught a long pass. Your just track fast , I played a lil collage ball. And with pads on and trying to read defenses some people don't move the same . And people like Adrian Peterson (old rating 97) and Jerry Rice move fast ! Rice is a perfect example Bad 40 time but in the game was hard to catch !

[Birdman18]

I think they've gotten speed and acceleration flip flopped.. For the most part, majority of these athletes won't lose as much top line speed as they do the quickness of them getting to that point


www.techraptor.net

[Dj_MyTime]

Wasn’t there a FBG post/thread that said players run the 40 each year of their career and that the drop off was around .05 per year in the league? If so why not base the change off of that vs basically taking away 1 pt per year in the league. That just does not make any sense.

These guys train year round, especially the skill position players, working on speed, agility, etc and outside of players that play into their mid-late 30’s I can’t recall any scenarios barring a major injury or extended time off where a guy just didn’t have ‘’IT’’ anymore.

A 4.3 40 over a 10 year period at a loss of .05 per year would still be a 4.35, I just don’t know why developing a method based off real world information is so difficult to do with the resources and access they have. Especially if some guy here on OS has a site built off this very data.

I don’t always agree with their scale but at least it isn’t seemingly random or elementary like this new scale seems to be, I mean seriously receivers with 80 speed….when the majority of pass catching Tight Ends are over 80, and the same for practically every starting LB in the game. How can they expect a balanced game when speed, one of the main points or separation in any sport is done so haphazardly.

For reference there are 48 receivers UNDER 85 speed a lot of which are in the top three in the rotation, I’m sorry but I can’t see NFL teams keeping receivers slower than Tight Ends, and virtually every defensive starter in the game.