FBGRatings Seeks to Recalibrate Madden Ratings, Change Game

[DCEBB2001]

Quote: Originally Posted by Playmakers

Yeah man the speed ratings are awesome for me..... For example this is Rocket Ismail who has like 94 speed blowing by a USC CB Daylon McCutcheon with 88 speed. The DB had no chance in hell at catching him once Rocket got a step deep on him. I was shocked at how many players aren't truly a 90 speed, agility or acceleration the way EA rates these players Thanks again for the site

Yeah, it makes a huge difference in the game too. The thing that I do that EA obviously does not is use hard data and its distributions to determine how the ratings should indeed be realistically distributed at each attribute and OVR rating. This makes the other ratings that are skill-based that much more important.

For instance, by measureable means, Adrian Peterson has average agility. His AGI is 79 and the average since 1998 is 79 for RBs. However, the scouting data that correlates to his JKM, SMV, TRK, and position-specific skills are in the 90s. It makes you think twice about looking just at the raw attributes when scouting or playing a player as well.

[DCEBB2001]

Just another update here:

This week most of the 16000 players in the database will have their appropriate basic data entered. This includes name, dob, college, experience, and raw attributes. This includes spd, str, agi, acc, and jmp attributes. Shortly after ovr updates from last season will be completed for players with last names F through Z. Then, prior to the draft all players will receive end of season updates with new ovr ratings and full attributes. I will keep you all updated and will also be adding a Facebook page for the site so stay tuned.

[KingV2k3]

I'm really looking forward to playing with these...

One of my biggest gripes (other than AWR, which is an ongoing thing) is STR...

It's really hard to get the pass block / pass rush sliders balanced because if your DT (for instance) has a 3-5 point STR advantage over the lineman he's engaging, he can usually rip or swim by him at a reasonable rate...

If he's down 3-5 (or more) he's likely to get kocked on his backside immediately...

It's always made STR with a DT the only attribute that really matters for user control...and makes playing with a lower STR rated backup pretty frustrating...

Thanks for continuing to update on the project!

[DCEBB2001]

Quote: Originally Posted by KingV2k3

I'm really looking forward to playing with these... One of my biggest gripes (other than AWR, which is an ongoing thing) is STR... It's really hard to get the pass block / pass rush sliders balanced because if your DT (for instance) has a 3-5 point STR advantage over the lineman he's engaging, he can usually rip or swim by him at a reasonable rate... If he's down 3-5 (or more) he's likely to get kocked on his backside immediately... It's always made STR with a DT the only attribute that really matters for user control...and makes playing with a lower STR rated backup pretty frustrating... Thanks for continuing to update on the project!

STR has always been a huge issue with Madden's rating system. What I have done is made the STR rating universal regardless of position. Do you think Professional punters only have an average STR of 15? Really? 15!? After my analysis, I found that most players have very little variance in strength overall, and this will be reflected in the ratings you will see.

[iBlievN5]

Quote: Originally Posted by DCEBB2001

Just another update here: This week most of the 16000 players in the database will have their appropriate basic data entered. This includes name, dob, college, experience, and raw attributes. This includes spd, str, agi, acc, and jmp attributes. Shortly after ovr updates from last season will be completed for players with last names F through Z. Then, prior to the draft all players will receive end of season updates with new ovr ratings and full attributes. I will keep you all updated and will also be adding a Facebook page for the site so stay tuned.

what will you do about combine warriors that don't show their "hard data" times on the field? ex. chris henry, former titans rb who never showed that 4.4 speed or those 3 cone times or pat white, whose speed never showed. i guess my point is that combine times aren't the above all and be all of physical prowess, case in point devin hester's 4.41, he's clearly faster than that but, that's what he ran.

[DCEBB2001]

Quote: Originally Posted by iBlievN5

what will you do about combine warriors that don't show their "hard data" times on the field? ex. chris henry, former titans rb who never showed that 4.4 speed or those 3 cone times or pat white, whose speed never showed. i guess my point is that combine times aren't the above all and be all of physical prowess, case in point devin hester's 4.41, he's clearly faster than that but, that's what he ran.

The thing you are forgetting is that Hester also posted a 4.35 at his Pro Day. Does that make him the fastest player in the league? No. But what is does do is give him great POTENTIAL to take deep balls and punts to the house. The 40 times measure potential for player-to-player cross analysis. It shows that in ideal conditions, a player has the potential to show a given amount of speed. Now, some players don't play to that level all the time for a number of given reasons. Did the player have a good initial burst to get into open space (note that this is the ACC, not SPD rating)? Did he have adequate blocking at various levels? How good does he make reads and react to a given play and player movement? Hester is fast, but not the fastest. However, he plays in a great special teams system and has amazing vision. I have seen him make great cuts by reading a coverage unit and also seen him get run down by LBs on a coverage unit (remember, I'm a Packers fan). What seperates him to me is his vision, not overall speed.

Chris Henry is an example of a guy who was not a polished runner. He misread openings and didn't ever have a marquee offensive line. The result? A low YPC average. Now, put him behind a line that can maximize that potential and it may have been a different story. A great example is Brandon Jackson of GB. The guy is fast and has burst, but can't ever decide on a lane to run through which causes him to hesitate and get nowhere. So you see, it's more than just potential, but because Madden does measurement at the individual, and not unit level, we have to be responsible for rating people on a potential basis.

Guys who are workout warriors will have great physical, raw attributes but will be late round picks because they lack polish and overall football knowledge/skill. See Jerry Rice and Emmett Smith for the reverse of that scenario.

[KingV2k3]

I have gotten to year four in THE SAME franchise for the first time in years...

Had really good draft classes to work with and managed to "keep it real" for all 32 teams...

However, the rating system has gotten things to the point where there are waaaaaaay to many players in the high 90's...

Esp. plays whose OVR is high 90's, but they still have relatively low AWR...

Like super stud athletes with limited on field smarts...



I have the CPU controlled teams ordering their depth charts, where OVR is the only number that seems to matter...

Dan:

Will you be able to take the multi year franchise player into account when you rate, so that things don't get out of hand after multiple years or whatever the next progression system brings?

Continued thanks!

[DCEBB2001]

Quote: Originally Posted by KingV2k3

I have gotten to year four in THE SAME franchise for the first time in years... Had really good draft classes to work with and managed to "keep it real" for all 32 teams... However, the rating system has gotten things to the point where there are waaaaaaay to many players in the high 90's... Esp. plays whose OVR is high 90's, but they still have relatively low AWR... Like super stud athletes with limited on field smarts... I have the CPU controlled teams ordering their depth charts, where OVR is the only number that seems to matter... Dan: Will you be able to take the multi year franchise player into account when you rate, so that things don't get out of hand after multiple years or whatever the next progression system brings? Continued thanks!

The entire system was derrived a long time back to keep ratings from being inflated. For example, it used to be that a slow WR or CB was in the low 80s for speed. Now a slow WR or CB is in the 60s for speed! Why is this? Because as the devs have stated, they had a speed range on players. For WRs it used to be between 99 and 75. That means that a WR with say a 4.70 40 yard dash time could only be as slow as a 75, whereas a DE with that same 40 time would be around an 80 in speed. It didn't make sense. Now, I am not a rocket scientist here, but I would think that if a DE at 280lbs and a WR at 180lbs both run a 4.70 40 time they should have the same speed right? After all, velocity is distance divided by time. Nowhere in that simple equation does mass take effect. It is irrelevant. So, they should have the same speed.

Back on point here...they used ranges for attributes that were POSITION SPECIFIC, meaning that they varied by position and were not universal. They tried to basically throw measurable data and physics out the window. So what I did was use the measurable data and find out the numerical distribution of every single time taken in every drill since 1998. From that, you can see where the times are layed out for each drill and relate them to a rating. The other thing the distribution found was that there were very very few players with elite agility. An elite time in the 3-cone for instance (what agile players strive for) is 6.66s. Want to know how many players had that or better since 1998? Well out of the 5853 players that tested in it at a combine or pro day only 135 had that time or better. That is only 2.3%!!! So that means that being extremely agile in the NFL is very rare. As a result, you will find few players with 90+ in AGI.

So as you can see, the shear number of players with elite ( 90+ ) ratings will be few and there will be more players with average ratings. The same was done with OVR ratings. At present there are only 100 players with a 90 OVR or better. Now, if you limit their raw ratings (SPD, ACC, AGI, JMP, STR) to a tight distribution based upon measurables you have more room to rate players with other ratings. So you will see higher AWR, CTH, CAR, etc...ratings. The biggest difference will be in utilizing more position-specific ratings (BCV for RBs, CIT for WRs, MCV for CBs, etc...) and making them more important.

What this all means is that the ceiling for certain players are either higher or lower. You will hear between now and draft time about the "upside" of certain players. That means that they have great physical tools but are unpolished or raw. For example, this year you have a decent WR class. In the middle of it is Vincent Brown a projected mid round prospect. He only posted a 4.68 in the 40 at the combine, but is a polished WR and route runner who stuck around his senior year for more experience. Then you have a guy like Julio Jones who posted great times (4.34 in the 40) to show his great physical ability albeit he is not as polished as a player and is a bit raw. There is more room for growth with Jones as opposed to Brown because he has more physical gifts than Brown even though Brown may be more polished at this point. When you draft, you draft for future investment for the most part (see what the Packers did this year). Most players will learn to run better routes, understand coverages, and grow mentally. It's the ones with the elite raw physical tools that will have a higher ceiling or upside like Jones in this year's draft, which is why he is a first round talent.

So you will find the ceiling level being played out in the ratings of raw and dynamic attributes....all in an effort to keep the ratings from being over-inflated in-game. If you all would like to see some example of how the raw attributes are rated just go here: www.fbgratings.com/members and find some players who already have the raw attributes. Or if you would like to know how I would rate some of the rookies just ask me in a PM or this thread and I will post it.