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Art of Baseball Lineup Making

Putting together a lineup in baseball is really much more of an art than a science, with many baseball insiders having very different ideas about how to construct the perfect lineup.

This article is going to take you through the process, shed some light on rules of thumb and discuss what a lineup should look like in a perfect world. The catch, as always, is getting the players to match the system – after all how many pure leadoff men are in the game today?

The first tip is to try and alternate lefties and righties as much as possible. The hope here is to make your opponent use a left handed specialist late in the game and have him face only one hitter before going to the pen for another right hander.

One mistake a lot of folks make is treating all switch hitters like wildcards, when all hitters aren’t near equal from both sides. Putting a switch hitter who is much better from the left side of the plate in between two lefties is screaming for the specialist to come out and foil your plans.

You should also try and avoid stacking two or more big strikeout guys. Nothing can kill a rally quite like two big bashers coming to the plate and striking out. Sure you have the chance for a big inning, but if neither put the ball in play nothing good can ever happen.

So with that said, here we go …

1st
Perhaps the one spot in the lineup where there really are few players available. Almost everybody has a .300 hitting third hitter – not everybody has a .300 hitting, 50 SB spark plug at the top of the lineup. Ideally that is what you are looking for here. A player who gets on base at a regular clip, doesn’t strike out too much, with a lot of speed.

Ideally you’re looking for a guy who can steal bases at a high clip, but that isn’t always an option. If you need to you can settle for a player who might not have base stealing speed, but can score from 2nd on a base hit up the middle.

One mistake people make, however (including pro managers) is forcing a speedy player into this spot despite the fact he doesn’t get on base enough. You can be a spark plug if you aren’t standing on first base, so OBP and average really are your first concerns here.

Personally, I don’t like my leadoff guy having a lot of pop in his bat. This day and age I don’t mind a guy hitting 20 HR from the leadoff spot, but when you start getting to guys who are hitting 30+ HR I’d prefer to have them a bit lower in the order.

2nd

You can almost think of this guys as a lead-off hitter with no speed and a bit more emphasis on making contact. Again I don’t like having a player with a ton of pop in his bat at this slot in the line. He should be able setting the table for the guys immediately following him, not swinging for the fences himself.

A player hitting second should also be a really good bunter, and by a similar token be able to situationally hit. In both cases this is all about moving a player from first base to second (bunt) and second to third (hitting a grounder to the right side of the infield) for your big boppers to drive in.

You also don’t want your second hitter striking out a lot. In fact, since you tend to be looking for a player with exceptional bat control, they usually strikeout less than anybody else on your team.

3rd
Your best all around hitter. While players hitting third often have a great deal of power, they also tend to have higher batting averages and OPS than the players behind them. If you are lucky enough to have two players that qualify to hit third, whichever hits for the better average and strikes out the least should be your choice.

4th
Ahhh the cleanup hitter. Scorn of mediocre pitchers every where. This player is usually your second best overall hitter, but one who tends to hit for more power and strike out a bit more than your three hitter.

5th

In a lot of ways your third fiddle players. A guy who’s got good power and contact but not quite the same as your three and four-hole guys. This spot in the lineup is all about the RBIs and often being the last chance to drive in any ducks on the pond your top two hitters left.

Or in many cases driving in a cleanup guy who hit a double and is sitting on second. Here you are looking for a player who strikes out less than the player you’re sticking in the six spot, with a bit more emphasis on hitting doubles if your choice comes down to doubles and homers with strikeouts.

You also want to make sure this player has some decent power – enough that he makes teams think twice about walking your clean-up guy, and can make them pay.

6th
If the four hitter is the cleanup guy, the 6 hole is your last chance guy. The average lineup really isn’t going to offer much from your 7 to 9 guys, so this is going to often be the last spot you can expect good production out of.

For this reason you really don’t mind having a good home run hitting, striking out, average OBP/average guy in this spot. The six spot is tailor made for those guys who swing from the bottom of their shoes every pitch with no regard for situation or circumstance.

7th
The seven spot is where American League and National League lineups really start differing. In the NL this spot is usually reserved for your worst overall hitter. The eight spot has some special jobs and circumstances that require him being a bit better hitter than your seventh guy.

In the AL your seven hitter tends to be a less talented version of your 6th hitter.

8th

In the AL this is the same as the seven hitter in the NL – generally your worst overall hitter.

In the NL this is one of the more important spots in the lineup that nobody really pays attention to. Gamers also tend to put their worst hitter in this spot – which is silly.

In the NL this player has a number of jobs and responsibilities depending on the situation. Most often, he’s called upon to get on base and make sure the pitchers spot in the lineup is cleared. If there are 2 outs in an inning you would much rather have your pitcher make that final out and start with the top of the order than have your 8-hole end it and have to start with your pitcher.

(This is particularly true in the 5th or 6th inning when you might have to take a pitcher out early for the sake of your lineup).

It also means taking what your opponent is giving you and not swinging at bad pitches. Teams will often work around an eight hitter to get to the pitcher, and many times you have no problem letting them do this.

A player hitting in this spot should also be a good bunter with good bat control, who is able to either sacrifice a player, hit to the right side of the infield to move a player to third, or hit the ball into a hole and get on base. Each of these comes in handy late in the game when you need to mount an offense and plan on using a pinch hitter.

9th
In the NL this is your pitcher. He is generally worthless and you should almost always plan on this spot in the lineup being an out. Any time you start thinking “well IF my pitcher can get on base …” you’re in trouble.

In the AL this player is considered more of a secondary leadoff hitter than a secondary … umm … second hitter like in the NL. With professional hitters (no matter how bad) stocking a lineup from top to bottom in the AL, you really don’t have a need for a player to concentrate on turning over the lineup.

This is a great spot for a speed demon type who isn’t the greatest hitter in the world – especially if he can drop the occasional drag bunt and get on base. If he can get on and cause problems that’s great.

Pinch Hitters
This is another great example of why the AL tends to have an advantage head to head over the NL. In the NL you really need to reserve spots on your roster for versatile utility players. With the amount of double switching that goes on, you need to safe guard against potentially not having a skilled player to play shortstop or third base.

The AL will tend to us these spots for corner outfielders and hard hitting backup first basemen.

Ideally I like to have two players I can count on for pinch hitting late in the game – both a lefty and a righty. Obviously they won’t be super stars, but you’d love to have good contact, good power guys.

One tip is to have your pinch hitters play the same positions as your 6, 7 and 8 hitters. This will allow you to do a pre-emptive double switch and keep your pinch hitter in the game.


Member Comments
# 21 ExtremeGamer @ 03/06/08 11:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlyGilmore
I know he's been threatening to do that for a while, and if i'm not mistaken he's done it a few times in spring training games before. It'll be interesting to see how that works out.
He's done it a bunch of times in regular season games as well.
 
# 22 BlyGilmore @ 03/06/08 11:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cletus
I think you're forgetting there's more than one way to do a lineup. There's the Speed, Control, Contact way. It isn't used in MLB at all because of the abundance of power hitters. basically you have your line up split into 3 sections. The first hitter is your speed guy, second guy can move runners along and 3rd guy is the contact guy. It is a very useful lineup if you do not have sluggers on your team. Sometimes in lineups, I like to arrange my 3rd hitter as my power hitter and my 4th guy as my contact guy, it just depends on who is getting on base and if I need my 4th hitter to get on base or not.
I could see that working on a team line the Twins a few years ago where their top HR guy only had like 25 or so. To me that's almost a lineup built around small ball.

At the same time though you always want your best players hitting higher up in the lineup. The difference between a 5 hitter and an 8 hitter of the course of a season is a couple hundred at bats.

(that also tends to be how softball teams create their lineup in leagues where more than 9 people bat because it helps create a more steady offense).
 
# 23 BlyGilmore @ 03/06/08 12:32 PM
ummm yeah. i can see you are one of those people who loves to make points but not read what anybody else has to say agree to disagree i guess - and besides it has nothing to do with the topic.
 
# 24 Stu @ 03/06/08 01:07 PM
Here's my "Art of Constructing a Baseball Lineup"

1) Make sure your good hitters get more at bats than your bad hitters.
 
# 25 RiversIsMyHero @ 03/06/08 01:56 PM
Most statisticians/sabermetricians say that line-up order doesnt really matter much at all.
 
# 26 BlyGilmore @ 03/06/08 02:00 PM
most people who have spent their entire lives in baseball would tell you it does
 
# 27 ChaseB @ 03/06/08 05:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by camulos
Here's my "Art of Constructing a Baseball Lineup"

1) Make sure your good hitters get more at bats than your bad hitters.
I concur. Then again I'm not a huge stat whore that most hardcore real-life baseball fans are.
 
# 28 snepp @ 03/06/08 06:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cletus
I'm almost sure that OBS is On Base + Slugging %
That would be OPS.
 
# 29 Cletus @ 03/06/08 09:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snepp
That would be OPS.
You're a smart one mr. snepp.
 
# 30 Cletus @ 03/06/08 09:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dkgojackets
That doesn't mean it does. Just get your best hitters the most at-bats and youre fine.
not if you look at the overall picture maybe not, but when you break it down team by team it does. Certain players hit better in certain spots in the lineup, just like certain pitchers pitch better in certain slots in the rotation. Overall, when you calculate all the teams and all the players maybe it doesn't matter if Joe hits 2nd or 7th, but if Joe feels more comfortable hitting in the 2 hole then it matters to your team.
 
# 31 gamerk2 @ 03/07/08 03:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlyGilmore
So over a span of two years in 2004 and 2005, Ortiz having something like 25 game winning hits in the 9th inning or extra innings, including several in the postseason, should just be ignored?

Here is the biggest problem with SABR folks I have, and your argument is a perfect example. They take all stats and put them on a platform where you have to consider all things are equal.

Comparing the 9th inning to other innings is flawed in and of itself, simply because if its a close game you are facing a teams closer. Hitting .300 with a 1.000 OPS against Mariano Rivera in the ninth inning isn't the same as doing it for a season.

Your stats above also take all 9th innings and put them together as if always hitting in the 9th inning requires clutch hitting. I'm sure some of those ninth inning stats are from games that are already over.
A hit in the 9th counts the same as a hit in the 1st. A hit in a blowout counts the same as a hit in a tie game. Every once and a while, you get an occurance where a player hits well in the 9th in close games.

Quote:
Find me the following and we can talk about Ortiz ...

- 9th inning or extra innings in a situation where one swing can mean the difference and his stats in those situations.
I don't care what he does in the 9th. We all know he's a power hitter, and we all know the guys in front of him get on. He bats 4th or 5th, so he usually gets up in the 9th in close games. This gives him a much higher possibility of getting a winning hit.

Quote:
- The rest of the leagues stats in that same situation (after all clutch is coming through when most people don't - that's why you want Ortiz there and not say A-Rod, because Ortiz is going to come through more times).
I remember Arod comming through plenty of times last year. The better a hitter is, the more likely he'll get a big hit when it counts. If you bat .333, and you have a chance for a game winning hit, you have exactly a 1/3 chance of getting it. People tend to forget the times people don't come through in the 9th, because those don't make the sportscenter highlight reel.

Also remember, the majority of closers in the league are not lights out guys. A good SP can limit damage done by big bats, but a decent closer will get crushed by guys like Arod and Ortiz. And before you bring up Ortiz's stats against Rivera, keep in mind that they see eachother in games close to 12 times a year (plus playoffs), which naturally favors the hitter.

Quote:
(btw Ortiz before 2003 or 2004 isn't the same as Ortiz after that - in this arguement I wouldn't consider anything he did in Minnesota to be part of the argument because frankly he's not the same player now as he was then).
Because he didn't have Manny behind him, which has greatly enhanced his stats. Any hitter in the league will do better if they have Manny Rimerez behind them.

Quote:
To me this is a classic case of SABR folks talking themselves out of something any 8 year old kid can notice while watching a game - that there are certain players you want up in certain situations over other players.
Because certain players are simply better than others. Ortiz has protection, and is a great hitter to boot. Jeter doesn't strike out much, ect.

Quote:
Like many things in life all baseball answers aren't strictly old school thinking or SABR thinking - they lie some place in the middle. And in a lot of ways the whole SABR thing is still evolving. To me this is a classic argument example - just because you can't accurately measure it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

This is another example of how people have been taught that attributes such as "clutch" exist. If that was true, you'd be almost guarenteed of finding a .270 hitter who bats .350 in the 9th, or some absurd stat such as that. It's no coincidence that only the top hitters/pitchers are considered clutch. There is a reason for that. They are simply better than everyone else.
 
# 32 theaub @ 03/09/08 01:19 PM
Yeah, I really hate the whole "clutch hitting" thing. From all the Jays games that I've gone too, I've come to the conclusion that in the end, it all evens out. When it comes down to it, the biggest factor for clutch hitting is having someone up who doesn't strike out a lot, and that's really it. Usually a game-ending hit occurs with the infield/outfield drawn in, so just being able to put the bat on the ball solidly is the most important thing. That's why a guy like A-Rod who is such a great hitter but strikes out a lot isn't regarded as clutch, while someone like Jeter who is nowhere close to as good of a hitter as A-Rod but rarely strikes out is.

As for the actual article, one thing that I like to do is split up the power in the lineup. I think that having a line drive hitter who will top out at 15-20 HR in the 5/6 hole, and then having a decent 25-30 HR power threat in the 7-spot makes it a lot harder for a pitcher to get through the lineup. That is, if you have the luxury of being able to do so.
 

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