The Art of Constructing a Baseball Lineup

[BlyGilmore]

most people who have spent their entire lives in baseball would tell you it does

[dkgojackets]

Quote: Originally Posted by BlyGilmore

most people who have spent their entire lives in baseball would tell you it does

That doesn't mean it does. Just get your best hitters the most at-bats and youre fine.

[ChaseB]

Quote: Originally Posted by camulos

Here's my "Art of Constructing a Baseball Lineup" 1) Make sure your good hitters get more at bats than your bad hitters.

I concur. Then again I'm not a huge stat whore that most hardcore real-life baseball fans are.

[snepp]

Quote: Originally Posted by Cletus

I'm almost sure that OBS is On Base + Slugging %

That would be OPS.

[Cletus]

Quote: Originally Posted by snepp

That would be OPS.

You're a smart one mr. snepp.

[Cletus]

Quote: Originally Posted by dkgojackets

That doesn't mean it does. Just get your best hitters the most at-bats and youre fine.

not if you look at the overall picture maybe not, but when you break it down team by team it does. Certain players hit better in certain spots in the lineup, just like certain pitchers pitch better in certain slots in the rotation. Overall, when you calculate all the teams and all the players maybe it doesn't matter if Joe hits 2nd or 7th, but if Joe feels more comfortable hitting in the 2 hole then it matters to your team.

[gamerk2]

Quote: Originally Posted by BlyGilmore

So over a span of two years in 2004 and 2005, Ortiz having something like 25 game winning hits in the 9th inning or extra innings, including several in the postseason, should just be ignored? Here is the biggest problem with SABR folks I have, and your argument is a perfect example. They take all stats and put them on a platform where you have to consider all things are equal. Comparing the 9th inning to other innings is flawed in and of itself, simply because if its a close game you are facing a teams closer. Hitting .300 with a 1.000 OPS against Mariano Rivera in the ninth inning isn't the same as doing it for a season. Your stats above also take all 9th innings and put them together as if always hitting in the 9th inning requires clutch hitting. I'm sure some of those ninth inning stats are from games that are already over.

A hit in the 9th counts the same as a hit in the 1st. A hit in a blowout counts the same as a hit in a tie game. Every once and a while, you get an occurance where a player hits well in the 9th in close games.

Quote:

Find me the following and we can talk about Ortiz ... - 9th inning or extra innings in a situation where one swing can mean the difference and his stats in those situations.

I don't care what he does in the 9th. We all know he's a power hitter, and we all know the guys in front of him get on. He bats 4th or 5th, so he usually gets up in the 9th in close games. This gives him a much higher possibility of getting a winning hit.

Quote:

- The rest of the leagues stats in that same situation (after all clutch is coming through when most people don't - that's why you want Ortiz there and not say A-Rod, because Ortiz is going to come through more times).

I remember Arod comming through plenty of times last year. The better a hitter is, the more likely he'll get a big hit when it counts. If you bat .333, and you have a chance for a game winning hit, you have exactly a 1/3 chance of getting it. People tend to forget the times people don't come through in the 9th, because those don't make the sportscenter highlight reel.

Also remember, the majority of closers in the league are not lights out guys. A good SP can limit damage done by big bats, but a decent closer will get crushed by guys like Arod and Ortiz. And before you bring up Ortiz's stats against Rivera, keep in mind that they see eachother in games close to 12 times a year (plus playoffs), which naturally favors the hitter.

Quote:

(btw Ortiz before 2003 or 2004 isn't the same as Ortiz after that - in this arguement I wouldn't consider anything he did in Minnesota to be part of the argument because frankly he's not the same player now as he was then).

Because he didn't have Manny behind him, which has greatly enhanced his stats. Any hitter in the league will do better if they have Manny Rimerez behind them.

Quote:

To me this is a classic case of SABR folks talking themselves out of something any 8 year old kid can notice while watching a game - that there are certain players you want up in certain situations over other players.

Because certain players are simply better than others. Ortiz has protection, and is a great hitter to boot. Jeter doesn't strike out much, ect.

Quote:

Like many things in life all baseball answers aren't strictly old school thinking or SABR thinking - they lie some place in the middle. And in a lot of ways the whole SABR thing is still evolving. To me this is a classic argument example - just because you can't accurately measure it doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

This is another example of how people have been taught that attributes such as "clutch" exist. If that was true, you'd be almost guarenteed of finding a .270 hitter who bats .350 in the 9th, or some absurd stat such as that. It's no coincidence that only the top hitters/pitchers are considered clutch. There is a reason for that. They are simply better than everyone else.

[dkgojackets]

Well said.

Your good hitters during the first six innings are still your good hitters in the last three. Good hitters are obviously more likely to get a hit regardless of the situation.