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NBA 2K16: The Contested Shot Conundrum (Part 2)
In the first part of this feature I wrote a lot about how often NBA teams are making each type of contested shot in comparison to NBA 2K. The feedback has been great both on here and elsewhere, and today I want to talk more about the specifics of these contested shots.
 
What that means is plenty more GIFs, and also a look at some shot types (some contested, some uncontested) in NBA 2K and how they relate to the NBA. In addition, I want to talk more about contested shots in terms of the disconnect between video games and the actual NBA. 
 
All in all, this will be slightly less nerdy and a little more philosophical than part one. However, let me make one thing clear before the jump: Contested shots are a fact of NBA life. 
 
Great, now let me dive in here. 
 

The Catch and Shoot 3-Ball

 
In NBA terms, the open catch-and-shoot 3-ball is your gold medal in terms of jumpers. Catching and immediately shooting gives you the best percentage of making a shot in the NBA. The catch-and-hold jumper and the pull-up jumper are simply not as effective (unless your name is Dirk).
 
Of course, you can’t always get open catch-and-shoot shots from deep. Looking at the GIF above, the coverage by Kobe Bryant on Robert Covington would equate to “tight” coverage as Kobe’s body is within 2-4 feet of Covington on the shot. Regardless, Covington immediately rises up and scores. In NBA terms, that shot goes in just about 30 percent of the time this season. With above the break 3s, that percentage probably dips a bit more, but the point is the shot goes in roughly one out of three times.
 
Community Question: If the shot in the GIF above went in one out of three times in NBA 2K (assuming you’re using a viable 3-point shooter), would you be okay with it? 
 
I know 2K Pro-Am is a different world, and badges change things and so on, but as I said in part one, I don’t believe that Covington shot goes in one out of three times in Play Now Online or just custom online matches with friends. 
 
In addition, the take I get from reading feedback is that a large portion of people would not be okay with shots like Covington's going in roughly 33 percent of the time. I think that comes back to people feeling like there’s no inherent “skill” involved in just passing the ball and rising up to shoot. In NBA terms, making a contested shot takes skill as not everyone can do it at the same rate (if you look at Covington, he’s actually elite in this category). However, in a video game a contested shot is made via a simple button press or flick of the shot stick. 
 
With this in mind, it’s also probably a reason so many people use the “limit perimeter shots” points of emphasis. Many folks who play this game hate giving up 3s. They would rather give up the drive and dunk much of the time. Maybe that’s because three points is worth more than two, maybe it’s because they can’t control all five defenders at once and feel like the AI should ignore team defense for individual defense, or maybe it’s because they feel getting to the rim takes more skill. Whatever the case may be, one of the most common complaints you see on here is about contested shots (whether by the AI or humans) going in too often. I feel I’ve tried to show my work in terms of explaining how that’s probably not the case in many environments, but here we are.   
 
That being said, as I move on here I’ll say it again: Contested shots are a fact of NBA life. 

The Mid-Range

 
We are living in the era of the 3-ball revolution. We're also seeing the "extra pass" revolution take hold. There’s no denying it, and many teams truly are looking for two things from players now on offense: an ability to be an elite passer for your position, and an ability to hit a 3-ball.
 
The Warriors are not of this world right now so it's hard using them as the example, but I can still point to some of their players as examples. Green is an above-average passer for his position. Curry is an above-average passer for his position. Iguodala is an above-average passer for his position. Bogut is an above-average passer for his position. Beyond that, the Spurs won a championship two years ago with crisp ball movement and an ability to stick open shots from deep.   
And yet, even with everything we now know about ball movement and 3-pointers, it’s still almost a given that at least a third of a team's shots (at minimum) are going to come from mid-range in an average NBA game. 
 
We know what the data says; we know the mid-range shot is the least efficient shot. Nevertheless, we also see teams like the Spurs using this fact to their advantage by shooting a great percentage from mid-range. The Spurs exploit the fact that teams now run you off the 3-point line, but also try to give you open or semi-contested mid-range shots rather than runs to the rim.
 
Community Question: With that in mind, do you think you come anywhere close to a third of your shots coming from mid-range in your average NBA 2K game?
 
On a personal level, in most online games I don't think I'm seeing either team take a third of their shots from mid-range. Most folks are the Houston Rockets in NBA 2K16. It’s 3-point shots or layups/dunks. 
 
In a way, it makes sense. Dunks are fun; 3-point shots are fun. Mid-range shots are not so fun. And don’t get me wrong, every time down the court in a real NBA game, a head coach would love to get either a dunk or open 3-point shot. However, that’s not reality. 
 
This is reality:
 
 
But how much faith do you have in that leaning shot above by McCollum going in somewhat consistently in NBA 2K right now? I know I don’t have much faith in it, so why take it? 

The Defensive Give And Take

 
This leads me to my first point about looking more at what role defense plays in all this. A lot of people play NBA 2K like individual defense and team defense don’t co-exist. If you’re playing tight on your man 30 feet from the basket, you’re endangering your team defense. In the same vein, pressing turbo and jumping at a shooter as he pump fakes (the "fly-by" in basketball terms) will also leave your team defense exposed.
 
Those are two obvious examples of just bad team defense, but there's also a sneakier way to play "dirty" defense in NBA 2K. You see in the GIF above that I sprint at Klay Thompson and sprint under him as he shoots. This sets off a bump/contest shot animation where really I should just be called for a foul. Even though I didn’t jump, I sprinted under Klay as he shot. I didn’t give Klay a chance to land. I also lowered Klay's ability to hit that shot coming off the pin-down screen.
 
I’m not advocating for the disappearance of these under duress shot animations, and I’m not saying you shouldn’t be able to sprint at a shooter, but there needs to be a semblance of common sense. In other words, you should not be able to turbo and run directly into the body of the shooter just because you're not jumping.
 
Returning to the fly-by, it's the most obvious and extreme example of bad defense that can sometimes work out in NBA 2K.
 
 
Now it's not like it’s very hard to get a shooting foul here (as I'll show below), but the situation in the GIF above just has to be a foul all the time. The turbo jump is a detriment to the game, and it just looks ridiculous.
 
Even looking past this one situation, the turbo jump is why chasedown blocks can still be silly at times (that and overly long dunk animations in situations where they should be more standard), and it’s why you still see players make up insane amounts of space to close in on shooters to get blocks.
 
That being said, you can use this aggression to your advantage as well:
 
 
Again, it’s not so much that the turbo jump on defense is overpowered, it’s just that it should never really be a viable option. It’s something you do more to just show a coach in real life you “tried” to stop the shooter from being wide open. It’s the “fake hustle” defense. Regardless, this type of defense shouldn’t really impact the grade of your shot or do much more than cause a foul if you launch too close to the shooter.  

Clearing Space

 
Coming back to offense now, as I’ve said the catch and shoot is the best type of long-range shot. However, I also need to say it really feels like the stepback jumper is cool again. And when I watch a basketball game, it seems like many NBA wings have to be able to hit a little bit of a stepback shot. It’s one of the easiest ways to clear space, and it’s hard to consistently challenge the shot in a one-on-one environment.
 
That being said, it feels like 2K does not want you to take these shots. In the GIF above -- and I know grades are not the best way to judge these things but go with me here -- I get a D-minus grade on what feels like a semi-open baseline shot with Steph Curry. As always, I’m not saying all these shots should go in, but if we want to push the game towards a more balanced shot distribution, then moves like the stepback have to feel a bit more dangerous. Otherwise, you'll just see more behind the back moves, spins and crossovers as folks try to get to the rack. 
 
Community Question: Would you like to see more stepback jumpers and leaning jumpers end in successful makes?

The Open Shot

 
Everybody is working for the shot above. The open corner 3 should probably be framed in the lobby of every NBA office. It’s beautiful. It’s magical. It’s efficient. 
 
It’s also not going in every time. Missing open shots infuriates some people, but it’s going to happen y’all. I'm sorry to have to break it to you, but even the corner 3 is only going in about 40 percent of the time. 
 
I know you may have worked hard to get that shot, or made the perfect drive and kick pass, but even at 22 feet, the corner 3 is still not a gimme.   

The Transition 3-Pointer

The discussion about the transition 3-pointer comes with some caveats. I’m not saying NBA 2K doesn’t need to work on its transition defense, because boy do the developers have to work on the transition defense. The fact that you know you’re pretty much going to have to deal with being outgunned on a fast break if you miss the back-end of a pair of free throws is not a good look. The fact that you'll sometimes see four defenders rush back to the paint even though there are guys on the perimeter that should be marked in transition is not a good look. The fact that you'll see defenders go into jog-back animations after a made basket even though the offense is already coming back at them is not a good look.
 
But here’s the thing, there’s a reason Seven Seconds Or Less makes sense. The best time to destroy a defense is before it’s set. Transition points per possession destroys points per possession in the halfcourt.
 
I get just as mad as others do when people just turbo up the court and drain a shot or attack the rack because, much like making contested shots, “it takes no video game skill” to pull it off. 
 
That being said, it would be a shame if it was incredibly hard to score in transition. Nobody wants to see the Tony Parker transition 3-ball being shot all game (especially Popovich), and 2K does need to work on matching up in transition and making defenders eschew some animations after made baskets, but it’s not unfair to say this stuff happens in NBA games. 
 
 
Not every player has the okay to do Steph stuff, but even if you ignore the Lillards of the world who also do this, it’s not like Westbrook and Wall aren’t doing the same thing, just instead they’re attacking the rack or immediately setting someone up for an open jumper -- even after made baskets.
 
But yo, let me be clear, I'm still turning off my console if the shot below ever goes in during a game of NBA 2K
 

Leaning Shot

Before getting to my final point, I want to make a quick note here to show two GIFs and then ask a question that relates to transition 3-pointers and stepback/leaning shots.
 
Here are the two GIFs:
 
 
 
Community Question: Do you think there’s an A-minus to D-minus difference in these shots just because Steph is leaning in one, while sprinting and coming to a stop in the other?  

The Defensive Helplessness

Finally, I want to end this by once more talking about the defense. I don’t want a user on defense to feel helpless and feel like the GIF above is something that’s constantly happening to them. Running back and forth while holding turbo and then firing up a shot when the contest range is minimal should never really be an option -- even if I could totally see real Steph doing this just for kicks.
 
A lot of what I’m talking about here is about making choices. As video game players, we sometimes have a problem accepting that we can’t take away everything -- even though we know that's true about the real NBA. If you want to hug up on everybody, then backdoors and layups are going to occur. If you want to prevent layups, then you're going to have to give up some open mid-range shots and 3s. If you don't want to get destroyed by a faster player on a dribble drive, then he's going to get chances to do stepbacks and hit mid-range shots.
 
In other words, you shouldn’t be able to play five or six feet off the ball handler to prevent a drive, and yet still force D-plus and C-minus grades on shots when a player pulls up. Everything is about balance, so a lot of what I’ve talked about here is about accepting that.
 
Remember: Contested shots are a fact of NBA life. Embrace that concept and accept it on some level. There’s only so many elevator sets or double screens that will get you open during a game. There’s only so many times you can drive and kick on a possession before you have to shoot. 
 
And if you play perfect defense, players are still going to hit some contested shots. Don’t get mad about that or say the game is cheating you when it happens. It’s why the NBA is a make or miss league, and it’s why as a fan it can be so fun and frustrating to watch a NBA game play out. 
 
We’ve been programmed as video game players to think, “if I do everything right, I should be rewarded” because that’s how game mechanics generally have to work to be successful. I’m not here to dispute that, but if we want “sim-oriented” games, we also have to accept that "perfect" defense can still be trumped at times.

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Member Comments
# 21 ChaseB @ 02/01/16 04:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tril
as far as the turbo defender, its simple. once the defender is out of position, or over commits on defense, the offensive ai should break out of set offense and drive to the hoop or take the open shot. An aggressive offensive player always takes what the defnse gives them. This isnt properly reflected in the game-play. There are more than enough times when the user defender gets lost and the AI controlled player does not take advantage.
the end result to this, would most likely be that users would be forced to play more controlled and sim style defense.
this should be applicable across the board. A reach in foul should always be a reach in, a blocking foul should always be a blocking foul.
On offense, a player that turbos throughout the game should be equivalent to player lowering their shoulder and driving, which then should increase the chances of it being an offensive foul.
The only thing I would say in response to the type of binary (yes/no) stuff you're talking about here would be tough to manage in terms of X always being a blocking call etc. I do think more can be done to keep "turbo spammers" in check, and charging calls is certainly an aspect to it, but charges have been really pulled back over the years in this game because people complained a lot about them (though off-ball, charges still work oddly well in certain modes). I think what was happening with charges in old games is that even when you weren't using turbo you would still be rung up on charging calls, and that could be infuriating.

But I really like the first part talking about choosing what type of on-ball defense you choose to take and being punished accordingly. That I agree with and, again, is why I point out the turbo jumping on defense etc. as a crutch at times.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nevertheles109
Well written, Chase. I'll partake

Community Question: If the shot in the GIF above went in one out of three times in NBA 2K (assuming you’re using a viable 3-point shooter), would you be okay with it?


I'm okay with it IF the user is running an set offense (aka a play from playbook, freelance offense, utilizing proper spacing within the natural flow of his offense ect.) I'm not okay with it if he just choosing to shoot that shot and I see it coming a mile away. I do agree with some of your assessment regarding hand up defense though but if Kobe was closer and had a hand in his face, that defense is effective in real life depending on the proximity. 2K needs to simulate the distance on hands up defense, especially mid-range as some people are barely effected with a slight contest in the mid-range area (Aldridge, Lebron, Melo, Kawhi, Dirk, Kobe back in the day, ect.)
I really like something you touched on here near the end. I could be wrong, but yes, it does feel like everyone has those "contested shot" animations when shooting, when really they aren't always applicable to everyone. Now, guys like Dirk have those signature fades in the post that don't get contested like this, but even his jumper Dirk is just rising up pretty much no matter the person that's there.

And I wasn't saying Kobe's defense in that GIF wasn't viable, just that contesting even at close range isn't some cure-all.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nevertheles109
Community Question: Would you like to see more stepback jumpers and leaning jumpers end in successful makes?

Yes and no. For the rare specimens aka Steph, Harden, Lillard, Kyrie ect. It should be a LITTLE more effective but for most players it is fine where it remains. They patched stepbacks and leaning jumpers making them a little more effective and it was a welcome change... Imagine if you had Kyle Korver iso on you and pull a step-back three? That's where that rabbit hole would lead us to; Players not playing to their true strengths and users abusing attributes.
The caveats here I agree with, and like with everything, it would have to be built around making players stand out who do these things. To me though, It just feels like pretty much no guards can hit these shots at all, while guys like the Haywards and some other players you mentioned need to be able to hit this a bit more. But yeah, no Korver stepback 3s (especially because right now he's a bit of a husk of his former self).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nevertheles109
My tangent for you to ponder Chase. The video you posted along your first post in this thread showed a stationary three by Steph. Yes, we all know he's an assassin from three but in my opinion there's always a rhythm or flow to most of the three's he shoots in real life. If you are simply pressing a button with no rhythm, timing or concept of that little bit of space you need in real life, do you think that shot should go in?

The reason I ask is because in my opinion 2K does a pretty good job of rewarding those mechanics I mentioned above as long as you create a bit of space, run a good play and of course time the top of the release correctly. I've made crazy contested shots against my friends and they try the same without any rhyme or reason behind their shots and it's damn near an air-ball. Similar shots but vastly different methods to our madness yields very different results.

Contested shots do need work but if its more or less just tapping a button because the percentage indicates that shot goes in one out of three times, what are we really get ourselves into? If you got the shot the right way by all means let the percentages play their part. If not, in my opinion, ignorant basketball should never be rewarded, regardless of the percentages.
Well, I think as you touched on earlier (and I have in old articles) is that we need to take Steph out of the equation. Because, yes, I do think he would have no issue taking and making that shot. He takes plenty of good shots, but he also takes plenty of out-of-rhythm, "random room" video game shots as well that go in as well.

As for the overall point though, I do think 2K seems to award those with crisper ball movement and have some semblance of flow to their dribble moves before rising up to shoot. That being said, I'm not sure if that's based on badges, if it's just a placebo effect, or there's more going on than we know about.

But your final point is one I made in the conclusion of the article I think in terms of not just rewarding turbo spam just because the final shot was only semi-contested. At the same time, we do have to remember that in reality most of the "sim" people probably call more plays than actually are called in a NBA game. Teams are not running 20 elevator sets in a game etc. They'll have base sets and motion, but a coach holding up a finger and saying what to run is more minimal at times than perhaps we realize. So deciding what factors into running something with "flow" vs. just jacking it up is a tricky thing to split up. Anyway, yeah, my intent is not to say heavily contested shots and the like should go in 30 percent of the time "just cause" which is why I tried to point out various elements that could be tweaked to help push folks towards both taking better jumpers and feeling as if the rewards will come more often.
 
# 22 Nevertheles109 @ 02/01/16 05:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChaseB
The only thing I would say in response to the type of binary (yes/no) stuff you're talking about here would be tough to manage in terms of X always being a blocking call etc. I do think more can be done to keep "turbo spammers" in check, and charging calls is certainly an aspect to it, but charges have been really pulled back over the years in this game because people complained a lot about them (though off-ball, charges still work oddly well in certain modes). I think what was happening with charges in old games is that even when you weren't using turbo you would still be rung up on charging calls, and that could be infuriating.

But I really like the first part talking about choosing what type of on-ball defense you choose to take and being punished accordingly. That I agree with and, again, is why I point out the turbo jumping on defense etc. as a crutch at times.



I really like something you touched on here near the end. I could be wrong, but yes, it does feel like everyone has those "contested shot" animations when shooting, when really they aren't always applicable to everyone. Now, guys like Dirk have those signature fades in the post that don't get contested like this, but even his jumper Dirk is just rising up pretty much no matter the person that's there.

And I wasn't saying Kobe's defense in that GIF wasn't viable, just that contesting even at close range isn't some cure-all.



The caveats here I agree with, and like with everything, it would have to be built around making players stand out who do these things. To me though, It just feels like pretty much no guards can hit these shots at all, while guys like the Haywards and some other players you mentioned need to be able to hit this a bit more. But yeah, no Korver stepback 3s (especially because right now he's a bit of a husk of his former self).



Well, I think as you touched on earlier (and I have in old articles) is that we need to take Steph out of the equation. Because, yes, I do think he would have no issue taking and making that shot. He takes plenty of good shots, but he also takes plenty of out-of-rhythm, "random room" video game shots as well that go in as well.

As for the overall point though, I do think 2K seems to award those with crisper ball movement and have some semblance of flow to their dribble moves before rising up to shoot. That being said, I'm not sure if that's based on badges, if it's just a placebo effect, or there's more going on than we know about.

But your final point is one I made in the conclusion of the article I think in terms of not just rewarding turbo spam just because the final shot was only semi-contested. At the same time, we do have to remember that in reality most of the "sim" people probably call more plays than actually are called in a NBA game. Teams are not running 20 elevator sets in a game etc. They'll have base sets and motion, but a coach holding up a finger and saying what to run is more minimal at times than perhaps we realize. So deciding what factors into running something with "flow" vs. just jacking it up is a tricky thing to split up. Anyway, yeah, my intent is not to say heavily contested shots and the like should go in 30 percent of the time "just cause" which is why I tried to point out various elements that could be tweaked to help push folks towards both taking better jumpers and feeling as if the rewards will come more often.
Aye man I'd have a rebuttal but I have none. I'm in agreement that the contested shots need work but I don't want it changed too much.

It's a hard balance to achieve but threads like this are great to push the game to the next level.

Here's a thought and it may already be in the game: what do you think about contested shot attributes based on data for mid-range, close and three? That way Steph plays like Steph and Melo can rise up with his signature triple threat mid-range J.

Now that individualizes contested shot makes and misses and also a step-back attribute for make & miss would be a thought, if it already isn't in the game.
 
# 23 videlsports @ 02/03/16 10:36 AM
I think if you catch the d off Guard with a moving dribble combo or a hesi- pull up then percentages should be a little higher depending on the player. 3 point shots are pretty good
 
# 24 nova91 @ 02/03/16 03:36 PM
2K cant figure out whats a good shot contest and what is not coupled with the ball being selectively live, shot contests are not good at all. You can really see this when you play MC. Opposing CPU defenders just have to be somewhat in the area and you see your teammates blow layups, dunks, and brick fairly easy jumpers. On the other hand since 2K decided to nerf user AI shot contests to encourage on ball defense in h2h the CPU drains heavily contested jumpers or AI defenders just stand there until a shot is released and then contest or don't contest at all.
 

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