2014-2015 Record: 49-33 (4th in conference, lost to Washington 4-0 in playoffs)
2016-2017 Cap Room: $13 Million
Key Strengths: Backcourt play
Key Weaknesses: Frontcourt play, rim protection
First-Year Strategy: The one "major" problem in the starting five is at power forward. Right now, Patrick Patterson and Luis Scola are splitting time there now, and while both are decent offensive options neither is very good on defense. On top of that, Jonas Valanciunas is still learning NBA defense. Toronto’s lack of real rim protection other than Bismack Biyombo keeps DeMarre Carroll stationed at small forward, something you should look to change going forward. A rim protecting center or power forward should be in your future.
On the contract side, Toronto is locked into long-term deals with most of its good players, which presents some opportunities and challenges alike. DeMar DeRozan has a $10 million player option in 2016 that he will assuredly opt-out of, and one of your power forwards (Scola) is a free agent after your first season. If you target a rim-protecting big who can play a little bit of offense, he can slide in for Scola next to Valanciunas and can play as a five alongside DeMarre Carroll to provide some rim protection in a smaller lineup.
Of course, if you lose DeRozan, your ability to replace him and add another big man with the $23 million you’ll have free is a tough undertaking. However, you have one other free agent that might be worth reworking your team over: James Johnson. He’s languished on the bench in real life under coach Dwane Casey, but it will behoove you to play him a ton in year one in order to find a role for him on your team. There’s a funky route you can take with this team where you build around Lowry, Carroll, Valanciunas, Johnson, and Terrence Ross, and that, along with an extra pick from the Knicks in the 2016 draft, gives you a chance to quickly swap parts.
Three-Year Strategy: You are also due a pick from the Clippers in 2017, so you have some picks to play with as you work towards building your team through the cap explosion in years two and three. If for some reason DeRozan didn’t opt out after year one, he’s a fully unrestricted free agent after year two, only this time you have a little more space to sign him because the cap is expected to jump to $108 million dollars (!!) in this offseason.
You also have three first round picks in Delon Wright, Bruno Caboclo and Lucas Nogueira up for their first team options, and at a combined $7.3 million in cap space, it would be silly not to pick those up even as just roster filler. After the 2017 season, it will be time to take a hard look at Kyle Lowry and decide where he is in his career. He’ll be turning 32 partly into the first year of his new deal so be very careful with how many years you offer him. In fact, the choice might be between a 32-year-old Lowry in the $20 million range or 27-year-old Cory Joseph at around $8 million. Don’t be sentimental.
2014-2015 Record: 40-42 (7th in conference, lost to Cleveland 4-0 in playoffs)
2016-2017 Cap Room: $50 million
Key Strengths: Deep roster, draft picks, cap space
Key Weaknesses: Few elite players, lack of outside shooting
First-Year Strategy: If you can control it, it makes sense to be as bad as possible with the Celtics in your first year. You’re due Brooklyn’s unprotected first rounder in the 2016 draft, so giving yourself more ping pong balls with your own picks just makes your situation better.
Boston has four free agents and two partially guaranteed contracts coming up after year one, and it could potentially make sense to let them all go. David Lee and Amir Johnson aren’t getting you anywhere, and Evan Turner has no place as a small forward on a team with shooting issues in its backcourt. Tyler Zeller and Jared Sullinger are potentially interesting backups, so it’s certainly worthwhile to tender a Qualifying Offer to them as restricted free agents, but be judicious with what you match for them as you’re surely going to get better players in the draft and free agency.
Boston has a bunch of other picks due to it over the next few seasons, so if you find a can’t-miss prospect in the draft or a potential home run trade, empty your barrels and get your man.
Three-Year Strategy: This team is obviously going to look very different a few years into your ownership. Picking up your assorted team options on guys like Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier, James Young and R.J. Hunter are all simple things to recommend, but the rest of your team building is going to depend on who you target as a potential superstar.
Unlike some other rebuilding teams, the Celtics don’t seem to currently have a potential All-NBA player on the roster, so target the best player available in both free agency and the draft until you get the players you want to build around. All of the deals on the books for the Celtics are team-friendly, but surely players like Avery Bradley and Isaiah Thomas will want big raises with their next deals.
2014-2015 Record: 38-44 (8th in conference, lost to Atlanta 4-2 in playoffs)
2016-2017 Cap Room: $46 million
Key Strengths: ??
Key Weaknesses: Dearth of draft picks, very few exciting young players
First-Year Strategy: If this is the team you choose to rebuild, much luck to you. Outside of Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and maybe Sergey Karasev, the Nets don’t have many interesting young players. And beyond the oft-injured Brook Lopez, they don’t have any real veteran building blocks. Beyond that, the team may not have their own draft pick for three years.
It’s not a great situation, but you can make it better in year one by really bottoming out. Sure, it might be painful to hand your top overall pick to Boston, but trading Joe Johnson, Lopez and Thaddeus Young might allow you to obtain an extra pick or two after year one. Not good times.
Three-Year Strategy: You definitely want to tender offers to Bojan Bogdanovic and the aforementioned Karasev, and you will want to pick up your options on Hollis-Jefferson and Chris McCullough. You’re going to be young and bad for a bit, but coming out of year three you should find yourself with a ton of cap space, especially if you don’t re-sign Brook Lopez (assuming you kept him this long). Of course, you’re going to fill in the roster by this point, but the real-life Nets only have $13 million on the books at the end of year three, and that’s realistically when you might be able to compete again. A team with an elite point guard and center, with Karasev and Hollis-Jefferson (develop his 3-point shooting) at the wings might be pretty interesting, but it’s hard to say how exactly you get there. This might be the most hopeless team in the league (sorry, Rich Grisham).
2014-2015 Record: 18-64 (14th in conference, missed playoffs)
2016-2017 Cap Room: $64 million
Key Strengths: Young, exciting frontcourt
Key Weaknesses: Guard play/shooting
First-Year Strategy: Figuring out the right way to play with Noel and Okafor together is paramount, as is finding out which of your numerous athletic wing players -- Jerami Grant, JaKarr Sampson, Hollis Thompson -- is worth keeping long term (I like Grant the most out of that group). The Sixers won't have great guard play either, especially with two of their better ones hurt (Kendall Marshall and Tony Wroten).
In the first year, if you choose to play through it, try to figure out who on the roster is a keeper and scout scout scout. You’ll have as many as four first-round picks to play with (Thunder, Heat, Lakers, Sixers), and hitting on them is paramount. You might as well trade Carl Landry, too, as you would much rather play Richaun Holmes and Christian Wood in his place.
Three-Year Strategy: Starting in year two, you are going to have a really interesting core between Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor, Robert Covington, and two likely lottery picks. The problem there, of course, is that Embiid and Okafor (and maybe Noel) play similar positions, and Noel is perhaps out of place as a power forward.
In an ideal world, you would have one of Okafor or Embiid and Noel, which will allow you to play with a true center when you go small. Personally, Noel is untouchable, as he’s easily the best defender of the three and has a much cleaner injury history than Embiid. If you aren’t thrilled with your draft day haul or have an opportunity to trade for a superstar like Paul George, take it. Continue to build your team and take your shots at superstar players when you can.
2014-2015 Record: 17-65 (15th in conference, missed playoffs)
2016-2017 Cap Room: $28 million
Key Strengths: Frontcourt play, two building blocks
Key Weaknesses: Backcourt/shooting
First-Year Strategy: You have a handful of free agents to decide on after year one, but only Langston Galloway and Cleanthony Early (both restricted) seem worth hanging onto. Arron Afflalo and Derrick Williams both have player options, and it stands to reason that they’ll both opt-in to those deals. Otherwise, you need to play rookies Kristaps Porzingis and Jerian Grant as much as possible while you see what Carmelo Anthony has left.
The Knicks owe a first-round pick to Denver in 2016 and may not have a second round pick until 2021, so you have to decide how long you want to hang onto Carmelo Anthony because he’s really your only route to young talent. Trading him and targeting a shooting guard or small forward as his replacement in the draft will put you into good position to allow a group of young players to grow together -- the Knicks actually seem to have a workable group with Galloway, Porzingis and Grant.
Three-Year Strategy: If you do trade Carmelo Anthony, your cap situation looks a lot better. 'Melo accounts for almost half of your allotted cap space in 2016, 2017 and 2018 before becoming a free agent. His 15 percent trade kicker (meaning, any team that receives him via trade has to pay him an additional 15 percent) is more palatable in the rising cap environment, making it easier than you’d think to get rid of him. Of course, getting him to waive that no-trade clause is entirely another task.
However, even if you don’t trade Carmelo, you can lean on his talents as your young players come together, and you might find yourself as a title contender near the end of his contract. You need to be targeting a center to play next to Porzingis because Robin Lopez is probably not the answer you need, as well as a legit shooting guard to go along with more shooting all around. You don’t necessarily have max money available until 2017 so cross your fingers and hope that guys take shorter deals.
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Marc Price is a life-long basketball nerd and EA SPORTS GameChanger. He co-hosts the Post-Game Podcast with Corey Andress every Wednesday on the Post-Game Podcast Network. You can find more information about the podcast at http://postgamepodcast.wordpress.com/ as well as Twitter.com/postgamepodcast.
Marc can be followed on Twitter at Twitter.com/mrprice33 and his co-host Corey can be followed at Twitter.com/coreysa. You can find more articles like these at medium.com/@mrprice33.