Madden NFL 15: Breaking Down QB Passing Percentages

Feature Article

Submitted on: 08/29/2014 by Ben Vollmer

One of the most intriguing things about Madden 15 is that the development team claims to have added more variance to the passing game, based on ratings. Well, given that one of my biggest complaints of the series has been how QB's have seemed automatic, I wanted to put this new aspect of the game to the test.

What I Did

It is pretty simple. I chose three different quarterbacks based on their overall skill level (Manning, Foles and Cassel). I went into practice mode, and sat down for a few hours just running the same plays over and over again to make sure that there was as few variables as possible. I chose the same team defense (Jacksonville Jaguars) and the same defensive and offensive plays for each QB.

Constants: Offensive and Defensive plays, Defensive Team, Weather Setting
Variables: QB Ratings, WR Ratings, Human Skill, Human Timing

Offensive Play Calls: Ace/Slants (30 attempts covered and uncovered) & Gun/Outside Post (30 attempts covered and uncovered)
Defensive Play Calls: 4-3 Cover 2

What I Saw

Before I get into the statistics of what I played, I just want to throw a disclaimer out there: There are quite a few variables that may have impacted the experiment quite a bit, including my own ability to keep things as equal every play as possible. Things like the the hardness of the throws (I tried to split it up with hard throws and lobs) probably changed a bit from throw to throw. Anyway, here are the stats from each of the specific QB's:

Peyton Manning

Slants vs Uncovered (Hard Throws): 27 completions, 2 drops, 1 missed throws
Slants vs Covered (Hard Throws): 23 completions, 5 drops, 2 missed throws
Slants vs Uncovered (Lob Throws): 29 completions, 1 drop
Slants vs Covered (Lob Throws): 22 completions, 6 tipped passes, 0 missed throws, 2 drops

Posts vs Uncovered (HTs): 26 completions, 1 drop, 3 missed throws
Posts vs Covered (HTs): 20 completions, 2 drops, 4 missed throws, 4 tipped passes
Posts vs Uncovered (LTs): 27 completions, 2 drops, 1 missed throw
Posts vs Covered (LTs): 11 completions, 15 tipped passes, 1 missed throw, 3 drops

Nick Foles

Slants vs Uncovered (Hard Throws): 28 completions, 2 drops, 0 missed throws
Slants vs Covered (Hard Throws): 25 completions, 3 drops, 1 missed throws, 1 tipped pass
Slants vs Uncovered (Lob Throws): 27 completions, 3 drops
Slants vs Covered (Lob Throws): 16 completions, 10 tipped passes, 1 missed throws, 3 drops

Posts vs Uncovered (HTs): 23 completions, 2 drop, 5 missed throws
Posts vs Covered (HTs): 21 completions, 1 drops, 5 missed throws, 3 tipped passes
Posts vs Uncovered (LTs): 28 completions, 2 drops, 0 missed throws
Posts vs Covered (LTs): 7 completions, 19 tipped passes, 2 missed throw, 2 drops

Matt Cassel

Slants vs Uncovered (Hard Throws): 23 completions, 1 drops, 6 missed throws
Slants vs Covered (Hard Throws): 22 completions, 5 drops, 2 missed throws, 1 tipped pass
Slants vs Uncovered (Lob Throws): 25 completions, 2 drops, 3 missed throws
Slants vs Covered (Lob Throws): 4 completions, 18 tipped passes, 3 missed throws, 5 drops

Posts vs Uncovered (HTs): 26 completions, 0 drops, 4 missed throws
Posts vs Covered (HTs): 18 completions, 6 drops, 4 missed throws, 2 tipped passes
Posts vs Uncovered (LTs): 27 completions, 2 drops, 1 missed throws
Posts vs Covered (LTs): 9 completions, 20 tipped passes, 1 missed throw, 0 drops

Final Thoughts

All in all, I was pleasantly surprised. A larger sample size is absolutely necessary in order to gain a better idea of how well the new passing inaccuracy works. The difference hardly seemed apparent between Foles (58% on covered) and Manning (64%), until I looked at the percentages.

I still am miffed about the lack of throws that aren't completed or tipped. Most incompletions come from passes that don't touch anything while they are in the air, but this could be for a few different reasons: 1) It's possible the two plays I called are easier throws. 2) There was almost no pressure on my throws since I knew exactly where I was going every time.

There is definitely a wider variety of incomplete passes. I saw a few fly right outside and underneath the receiver's arms, and a few right over. I suspect I would have seen even more if I was trying to keep the ball away from the defense using the left-stick, but I didn't want to throw an extra variable in there. Ironically, when I did some extra testing with blitzes, the QB's had a much easier time completing the passes. Again, it helps that I knew blitzes were coming so that has to be taken into account.

Ultimately, I think a few slider changes here or there are going to provide an experience with a good bit of variance -- the kind this series has been lacking for a while. With the human element still involved, it's impossible to give a definite answer on whether or not Madden's new feature works as well as advertised, but I'd definitely say its present in some capacity.

If you have any questions on the experiment or any of the methods that I used, feel free to ask in the comments section!

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Member Comments

# 1 wallofhate @ 08/29/14 01:22 PM

Like someone wrote in a previous blog about this topic the difference between "elite" qbs and the run of the mill average qb isn't a large margin percentage wise so your findings are cool to the fact that madden actually kind of hits the nail on the head with this. Guess we gotta give credit where credit is due. Just weird when you play and they complete those percentages it feels like your getting roasted. It doesn't feel like you're forcing the qb top"settle" for what's available and preventing him from going where he wants. But all in all the game is good imo

# 2 BenGerman @ 08/29/14 01:37 PM

Yeah, and I think that's really important to mention. Most QB's in the NFL are only separated by a thin margin, so there's really nothing wrong with the way this experiment went. I would say, just in the overall variety of throws, I didn't feel a huge difference with one QB over the other.

# 3 Cardot @ 08/29/14 01:51 PM

It Maddens of the past, the game has played differently (and better) in practice mode than it has in other modes. I am not sure if that is the case with '15?

It would be nice for EA to figure this aspect of the game out. It has been a deterrent to the game for decades. QB's are too accurate, so offenses are too effective....Bandaid in some warping defenders....now too many interceptions, Bandaid in constant drops by defenders....and round and round we go with bandaids on top of bandaids.

# 4 BenGerman @ 08/29/14 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cardot


	It Maddens of the past, the game has played differently (and better) in practice mode than it has in other modes. I am not sure if that is the case with '15? It would be nice for EA to figure this aspect of the game out. It has been a deterrent to the game for decades. QB's are too accurate, so offenses are too effective....Bandaid in some warping defenders....now too many interceptions, Bandaid in constant drops by defenders....and round and round we go with bandaids on top of bandaids.

I thought about this, too. I didn't want to count it as a variable because there is really no way of knowing if practice mode is different from everything else at this stage in the game, but you kinda just have to hope that it isn't. It wouldn't shock me, given that that's been a thing for almost a decade now.

# 5 TMJOHNS18 @ 08/29/14 02:37 PM

I guess you could have traded 2 of the QBs to one of the three teams and subbed them in during practice mode to eliminate the WR variable.

One thing I did notice in the little I've played in CFM, low rated QBs due tend to throw errant passes more often (which is given), but not on the level you'd expect when comparing an elite player like Manning and the some of the lowest FA QBs. Neither throw enough bad passes. Elite QBs, with time, still miss on throws or are slightly off, not center chest nearly every time.

Seems to me that the current separation between the very best and very worst reflects what I'd hope to see between 90s rated QBs and 80s rated QBs. Doesn't help CPU seems to nearly be perfect at passing when using higher rated QBs, just don't see much errant passes from them.

# 6 bcruise @ 08/29/14 03:07 PM

Nice article. Can I assume that was on All-Pro with default sliders?

# 7 Mos1ted @ 08/29/14 03:32 PM

I think human skill definitely plays a large factor. Even with the accuracy slider at 6, I can still take an inaccurate QB like Jake Locker and put the ball where I want it. Once I drop the slider to 1, now I'm having a harder time putting the ball where I want it. Then I bring in a slightly more accurate quarterback and notice right away that I can throw more consistently with him over Jake Locker. So for me, having the QB slider at 1 is probably going to be the ideal setting for me.

# 8 Mos1ted @ 08/29/14 04:01 PM

I was going to make a thread for this article, but it seems better suited posted here:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/pa...hrow-the-ball/

Quote:


	It’s very rare for an NFL quarterback to complete a pass in which the intended receiver is standing more than 45 yards from the line of scrimmage. In fact, NFL quarterbacks only attempted 175 such throws during the entire regular season last year, and only 48 resulted in completions. Joe Flacco was responsible for six of them. Until recently, this kind of factoid was hard to uncover, but like every other sport, football’s analytics are evolving quickly. Thanks to new forms of data and emerging kinds of analyses, teams, media, and fans are gaining new insights into on-field performances. I have been exploring one such data set, a giant collection of highly detailed passing data created and maintained by ESPN’s Stats & Information group.

This was from data taken during the 2012 season.

# 9 BenGerman @ 08/29/14 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bcruise


	Nice article. Can I assume that was on All-Pro with default sliders?

Thanks! And yep, I used default All-Pro the entire way through.

# 10 therizing02 @ 08/29/14 04:51 PM

Great work Ben. Not surprised by the results as I agree with the idea that the separation from the great to good, to average quarterback has a lot to do with more than just physical tools. See Jeff George

.

An interesting experiment to try would be the CPU running the same plays. I have no issues with the USER offense vs. the CPU defense from a QB completion perspective. It's the CPU completion percentage, awareness in the pocket, and how they decide which receiver to throw the ball to on every given play.

Just to see the difference I played against Manziel with the Steelers on M25 last night. All Madden default with DPI at 20 and OPI at 19. Manziel had 6 passes that were off target. Most of them were in the 10-20 yard range. I don't think I've seen 6 off target passes in M15 in the last 5 games! It might be fair to say that the QB AI in M25 is better than it is in M15. BTW, I won the game 21-17!

# 11 booker21 @ 08/29/14 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mos1ted


	I think human skill definitely plays a large factor. Even with the accuracy slider at 6, I can still take an inaccurate QB like Jake Locker and put the ball where I want it. Once I drop the slider to 1, now I'm having a harder time putting the ball where I want it. Then I bring in a slightly more accurate quarterback and notice right away that I can throw more consistently with him over Jake Locker. So for me, having the QB slider at 1 is probably going to be the ideal setting for me.

This is exaclty my poing. QB miss a few passes but not the amount i was expecting, specially for avg QB like Dalton, Hoyer etc

# 12 satchmykels @ 08/29/14 07:38 PM

I dropped pass accuracy to 15 and bumped pass blocking up to 60 for both human and cpu. Thought I was getting pretty close to the sweet spot on all-pro but yup, might have to take it even lower.

# 13 The JareBear @ 08/29/14 07:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by booker21


	This is exaclty my poing. QB miss a few passes but not the amount i was expecting, specially for avg QB like Dalton, Hoyer etc

Yeah I personally,believe the margin between quarterbacks in the league is much wider than represented in the game. The inaccurate passes "feature" this year has not quite lived up to my expectations

# 14 Mos1ted @ 08/29/14 09:26 PM

Here's another good resource related to this topic: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/

It tracks WR receptions, drops, and targets. Last year, Pierre Garcon and Andre Johnson led the league with 181 targets. Pierre Garcon caught 113 of those passes and dropped 7; Andre Johnson caught 108 and dropped 8. Since drops only caught the balls that hit the receiver's hand but he didn't catch, it can be assumed that the 61 passes thrown to Pierre Garcon were completely out of reach, reflecting the quarterback's accuracy. That means that one of out every three passes thrown his way were inaccurate.

# 15 gjneff @ 08/30/14 12:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mos1ted


	Here's another good resource related to this topic: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/ It tracks WR receptions, drops, and targets. Last year, Pierre Garcon and Andre Johnson led the league with 181 targets. Pierre Garcon caught 113 of those passes and dropped 7; Andre Johnson caught 108 and dropped 8. Since drops only caught the balls that hit the receiver's hand but he didn't catch, it can be assumed that the 61 passes thrown to Pierre Garcon were completely out of reach, reflecting the quarterback's accuracy. That means that one of out every three passes thrown his way were inaccurate.

That's not necessarily true. Some will be knocked down by a defender just making a play. Not always drop or off target.

# 16 Mos1ted @ 08/30/14 03:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gjneff


	That's not necessarily true. Some will be knocked down by a defender just making a play. Not always drop or off target.

This is true, but even then, not every pass that's off target was knocked down or intercepted either.

For example, that same site I posted previously tracked defensive back stats as well, mainly interceptions and pass deflections. Alterraun Verner led the league with 28 passes defended -- 5 interceptions and 23 pass deflections. Richard Sherman led the league with interceptions with 8 and had 24 passes defended overall.

For convenience sake, let's said that Alterraun Verner covered Pierre Garcon for every single pass thrown Pierre's way during the 2013 season. Garcon was thrown the ball 181 times, more than any other receiver in the league.

Again, he catches 113 and drops 7. That means 61 passes didn't touch his hands. Alterraun Verner defends 28 of those passes with an interception or deflection. That still leaves 33 passes (18 percent) that touched neither the receiver's nor cornerback's hands.

And we don't know how many of those passes that Verner made plays on were accurate throws that he just jumped the route on or balls that were so off target that only he had a shot of making a play on it.

# 17 Mos1ted @ 08/30/14 03:57 AM

Here is data for an unofficial stat known as air yards: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/st...ir-yards/2013/

It's determined by subtracting a receiver's yards after the catch from a quarterback's passing yards. In other words, how far did the ball travel in the air before it was caught?

Peyton Manning led the league with 2,795 air yards, averaging 4.24 yards per attempt. Jay Cutler led the league with air yards per attempt with 4.50. Basically, an overwhelming number of passes are short passes, just like the other article I posted, so we can get too mad that the CPU QB on Madden throws short passes way more often than medium or deep passes.

# 18 tuck243 @ 08/30/14 09:40 AM

Few things I noticed... For starters it's only 16 games a season, which isn't a big sample size when it comes to percentages. Also, I took a look at Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Colin Kaepernick... For damn near every great game was a mediocre one... Tom for example... Tom only had 2 games last year when he completed over 70% of his passes... And 6 out of 18 games he completed 55% or less...

Peyton had a better year completion wise with 68% (which is a big difference with Tom's 60%), but only had 5 games where he completed over 70% of his passes (with the Raiders being 2 of those times)...

Colin had 9 games where he completed 55% or less of his throws with 4 games being below 50%... He also didn't have one 70% game....

I say all that to say this... We should see a few 55% games vs. a great QB like Tom... A couple from Manning... And a lot from players like Colin... We shouldn't see A LOT of 70%+ games from any of these QB's and if we do see them it should be against teams with crappy defenses...

# 19 BenGerman @ 08/30/14 01:24 PM

Yeah, it's absolutely clear that more balls need to be thrown "away" from players. Not enough throws are getting to the ground, and that's a problem.

Ultimately, though, it won't happen until the game spaces the field more to represent an actual football field. There's way more green in real life than guys in jerseys, but you wouldn't know that by playing Madden.

# 20 sticks323 @ 09/01/14 04:03 PM

Wow you did a great job.You put in a lot of work.

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