Madden NFL 15: Breaking Down QB Passing Percentages

[Mos1ted]

I was going to make a thread for this article, but it seems better suited posted here:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/pa...hrow-the-ball/

Quote:

It’s very rare for an NFL quarterback to complete a pass in which the intended receiver is standing more than 45 yards from the line of scrimmage. In fact, NFL quarterbacks only attempted 175 such throws during the entire regular season last year, and only 48 resulted in completions. Joe Flacco was responsible for six of them. Until recently, this kind of factoid was hard to uncover, but like every other sport, football’s analytics are evolving quickly. Thanks to new forms of data and emerging kinds of analyses, teams, media, and fans are gaining new insights into on-field performances. I have been exploring one such data set, a giant collection of highly detailed passing data created and maintained by ESPN’s Stats & Information group.

This was from data taken during the 2012 season.

[BenGerman]

Quote: Originally Posted by bcruise

Nice article. Can I assume that was on All-Pro with default sliders?

Thanks! And yep, I used default All-Pro the entire way through.

[therizing02]

Great work Ben. Not surprised by the results as I agree with the idea that the separation from the great to good, to average quarterback has a lot to do with more than just physical tools. See Jeff George.

An interesting experiment to try would be the CPU running the same plays. I have no issues with the USER offense vs. the CPU defense from a QB completion perspective. It's the CPU completion percentage, awareness in the pocket, and how they decide which receiver to throw the ball to on every given play.

Just to see the difference I played against Manziel with the Steelers on M25 last night. All Madden default with DPI at 20 and OPI at 19. Manziel had 6 passes that were off target. Most of them were in the 10-20 yard range. I don't think I've seen 6 off target passes in M15 in the last 5 games! It might be fair to say that the QB AI in M25 is better than it is in M15. BTW, I won the game 21-17!

[booker21]

Quote: Originally Posted by Mos1ted

I think human skill definitely plays a large factor. Even with the accuracy slider at 6, I can still take an inaccurate QB like Jake Locker and put the ball where I want it. Once I drop the slider to 1, now I'm having a harder time putting the ball where I want it. Then I bring in a slightly more accurate quarterback and notice right away that I can throw more consistently with him over Jake Locker. So for me, having the QB slider at 1 is probably going to be the ideal setting for me.

This is exaclty my poing. QB miss a few passes but not the amount i was expecting, specially for avg QB like Dalton, Hoyer etc

[satchmykels]

I dropped pass accuracy to 15 and bumped pass blocking up to 60 for both human and cpu. Thought I was getting pretty close to the sweet spot on all-pro but yup, might have to take it even lower.

[The JareBear]

Quote: Originally Posted by booker21

This is exaclty my poing. QB miss a few passes but not the amount i was expecting, specially for avg QB like Dalton, Hoyer etc

Yeah I personally,believe the margin between quarterbacks in the league is much wider than represented in the game. The inaccurate passes "feature" this year has not quite lived up to my expectations

[Mos1ted]

Here's another good resource related to this topic: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/

It tracks WR receptions, drops, and targets. Last year, Pierre Garcon and Andre Johnson led the league with 181 targets. Pierre Garcon caught 113 of those passes and dropped 7; Andre Johnson caught 108 and dropped 8. Since drops only caught the balls that hit the receiver's hand but he didn't catch, it can be assumed that the 61 passes thrown to Pierre Garcon were completely out of reach, reflecting the quarterback's accuracy. That means that one of out every three passes thrown his way were inaccurate.

[gjneff]

Quote: Originally Posted by Mos1ted

Here's another good resource related to this topic: http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/drops/2013/ It tracks WR receptions, drops, and targets. Last year, Pierre Garcon and Andre Johnson led the league with 181 targets. Pierre Garcon caught 113 of those passes and dropped 7; Andre Johnson caught 108 and dropped 8. Since drops only caught the balls that hit the receiver's hand but he didn't catch, it can be assumed that the 61 passes thrown to Pierre Garcon were completely out of reach, reflecting the quarterback's accuracy. That means that one of out every three passes thrown his way were inaccurate.

That's not necessarily true. Some will be knocked down by a defender just making a play. Not always drop or off target.