MLB 10: The Show Simulates the 2010 Season

Feature Article

Submitted on: 05/28/2010 by Caley Roark

The infancy of the 2010 MLB season is wearing off at this point. Interleague play has begun and the All-Star voting is in full swing. To get an idea of what lies ahead, we have already simulated the the 2010 season in MLB 2K10.

Here now is what the 2010 season looks like in MLB 10: The Show.

Regular Season

AL East

This was, by far, the most competitive division in baseball. Four of the five teams finished above the .500 mark, and they all finished within two games of each other. The Yankees squeaked out a division title just ahead of the Red Sox and Rays. The teams from Boston and Tampa Bay needed an extra game to determine the wild-card outcome. The Red Sox, behind John Lackey, beat the Rays in the tiebreaker by a score of 9-2. The underrated Blue Jays just missed creating a three-way tie.

Yankees: 92-70
Red Sox: 92-71 (wild-card birth after beating Rays in one-game playoff)
Rays: 91-72
Blue Jays: 90-72
Orioles: 80-82

AL Central

The White Sox, led by some stellar pitching, outperformed expectations and the favored Twins by putting up 95 wins en route to winning the division by nine games. Meanwhile, the Tigers and Royals proved to be mediocre, while the Indians put up triple digits in the loss column.

White Sox: 95-67
Twins: 86-76
Tigers: 77-85
Royals: 70-92
Indians: 61-101

AL West

Out west, the Angels ran away with the title in what was the worst division in baseball. In fact, the Angels were the only team to finish with a winning record in the division. The Mariners, despite having a pretty talented roster, could not make things interesting. The Athletics also came within seven games of setting the AL record for losses in a season (119 by Detroit in 2003).

Angels: 94-68
Mariners: 79-83
Rangers: 72-90
Athletics: 50-112

AL Batting Leaders

Chone Figgins: .346 Batting Average
Juan Rivera: 44 Home Runs
Juan Rivera: 133 RBI
Juan Pierre: 74 Stolen Bases

AL Pitching Leaders

Justin Verlander: 19 Wins
Mark Buehrle: 16 Losses (also won 14)
Jake Peavy: 2.56 ERA
Jake Peavy: 244 Strikeouts
Jason Frasor and Jonathan Papelbon: 50 Saves

MLB '10: The Show has the Yankees in a familiar position: Winning the AL East.

NL East

This division was interesting to watch because the Nationals led the division throughout most of the early summer. The Phillies characteristically got hot down the stretch, losing only a handful of games in August and September, and finished 20 games above .500.

Phillies: 91-71
Braves: 81-81
Nationals: 74-88
Mets: 73-89
Marlins: 65-97

NL Central

The Cardinals recorded the third highest win total in their franchise history and won the toughest division in the National League. Meanwhile, the Astros blew away their franchise record for losses, which had stood at 91. The Pirates broke that long stretch of losing seasons, finishing with a winning record for the first time since 1992. The Cubs took the wild card, and the Brewers and Reds rounded out the division with respectable but ultimately disappointing records.

Cardinals: 102-60
Cubs: 93-69 (wild card)
Brewers: 85-77
Pirates: 82-80
Reds: 82-80
Astros: 48-114

NL West

The Dodgers and Rockies battled it out until the end of the season, but the men in purple fell short of both the division and wild-card titles. The rest of the teams in the division were average -- they perhaps even underachieved. The Padres were out of the race by early August.

Dodgers: 94-68
Rockies: 91-71
Diamondbacks: 83-79
Giants: 80-82
Padres: 78-84

NL Batting Leaders

Lance Berkman: .354 Batting Average (did not play most of Sept/Oct with a shoulder tear)
Ryan Braun: 55 Home Runs
Ryan Howard: 157 RBI
Michael Bourn: 70 Stolen Bases

NL Pitching Leaders

Chris Carpenter: 22 Wins
Wandy Rodriguez: 17 Losses
Chris Carpenter: 2.05 ERA
Jonathan Sanchez: 233 Strikeouts
Ryan Franklin: 51 Saves

Player Movement

There were not a ton of truly big-name trades made. Most of the interesting moves involved prospects (this sim used Knight and Co's roster). The Padres traded Adrian Gonzalez at the trade deadline to the Royals in exchange for Kyle Farnsworth and top pitching prospect Mike Montgomery. In the NL, the Phillies sent Jamie Moyer and outfield prospect Dominic Brown to the Cubs for pitching prospect Jay Jackson.

All-Star Game

The AL won the game by a score of 11-9.

Playoffs

American League:

The Red Sox fought hard to beat the White Sox, needing five games to win the ALDS. The Yankees rolled over the Angels in four games.

In the ALCS, the classic Boston-New York rivalry lived on (to the virtual media's delight I'm sure). The Red Sox did not allow it to go to Game 7 because they beat the Yanks in six games. Boston's trip to the World Series marks a great turnaround for a team that needed an extra game just to get into the playoffs.

Victor Martinez was primarily responsible for Boston's success, finishing the series with a .459 batting average, 5 home runs and 17 RBI.

National League

Despite leading all of baseball with 100-plus wins, the Cardinals were swept by the Phillies in the NLDS. The Dodgers once again beat the luckless Cubs, winning the series in four games and setting up a third straight Phillies/Dodgers NLCS.

The potent offense of the Phillies made up for some shaky pitching (the Moyer trade and a few injuries meant even Antonio Bastardo had a spot in the rotation). Their offense was enough to send the Dodgers home yet again, winning the series in six game. In essence, the Phillies became their own "red machine" by clinching a spot in the World Series for the third time in three years.

Ryan Howard led the Phils and the NL, batting .415 with 2 home runs and 10 RBI. His performance earned him the NLCS MVP award.

World Series

In the Series, the Red Sox replicated what actually happened this past weekend by beating Roy Halladay and the rest of the Phillies to win the Fall Classic four games to one. During the Series, the pitching continued to be a letdown for the Phillies -- even their one win came late in a game after the hitters erased a bad start by Cole Hamels. Meanwhile, the Red Sox negated Philadelphia's powerful offense, and replicated their magical 2004 World Series by becoming only the fifth wild-card World Series winners.

Victor Martinez earned the MVP trophy in the World Series as well by hitting .571 with 4 home runs.

Notable Awards

MVP
AL: Juan Rivera - .299 BA, 44 HR, 133 RBI
NL: Albert Pujols - .342 BA, 53 HR, 145 RBI

Cy Young
AL: Justin Verlander: 19-10, 3.34 ERA, 219 K
NL: Chris Carpenter (STL) 22-3, 2.05 ERA, 192 K

Rookie of the Year
AL: Brian Matusz: 14-7, 4.37 ERA, 143 K
NL: Jason Heyward: .277 BA, 24 HR, 90 RBI

Trevor Hoffman also picked up save 629, which increased his career saves lead.

Conclusion

I think that The Show's final results seem pretty accurate. The Phillies got hot down the stretch, the Cubs and Cardinals struggled in the playoffs, there was Red Sox magic, etc. I am not sure three teams will finish with 100-plus losses or that the Astros are truly that bad (though I guess it is possible). Do both Chris Carpenter and Juan Rivera have the stuff to put together career years? Heyward seems like a likely candidate for Rookie of the Year, and Pujols is usually pretty much a lock for MVP, even when his team does not win 102 games.

What is really interesting is that both simulations run by OS featured a one-game playoff between the Rays and Red Sox.

What do you think about The Show's simulated possibilities and outcomes?

MLB '10: The Show Videos

Member Comments

# 1 kennyacid @ 05/28/10 01:39 PM

Now these i can deal with, i dont know what happen in the 2k sim

# 2 jmik58 @ 05/28/10 03:40 PM

I believe a three-way tie is handled by labeling the teams as "A", "B", and "C". I'm not sure how they decide which team holds the advantage over the other in selecting who is A,B, or C.

I think that C then plays a game at B. The winner of that game then plays a game at A. The winner of that takes the three-way tie breaker.

I could be horribly wrong but I remember reading this somewhere not too long ago.

# 3 Perfect Zero @ 05/28/10 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jmik58


	I believe a three-way tie is handled by labeling the teams as "A", "B", and "C". I'm not sure how they decide which team holds the advantage over the other in selecting who is A,B, or C. I think that C then plays a game at B. The winner of that game then plays a game at A. The winner of that takes the three-way tie breaker. I could be horribly wrong but I remember reading this somewhere not too long ago.

I think that's spot- on. I think teams A, B, and C are chosen by lots, and they get to pick which team that they want to be.

# 4 ty5oke @ 05/28/10 03:57 PM

Nice read. One thing I really hope is fixed next year is the trade logic. Why are the Royals giving up a top pitching prospect for Adrian Gonzalez when they have no shot at winning in the sim?

# 5 ThaShark28_316 @ 05/28/10 03:59 PM

Wow @ yall doing my Astros like that...48-114 WTF?!?!?!?!

# 6 Grnngld @ 05/28/10 04:22 PM

Quote:


	I think that The Show's final results seem pretty accurate.

How are these results accurate at all? When was the last time the league had TWO teams losing over 110 games, if at all? How in the world are the A's gonna lose 112 games with the rotation, bullpen, and defense they have?

If these are the results you're getting, it's time for SCEA to reevaluate how they come up with ratings.

# 7 MizzyMike05 @ 05/28/10 04:47 PM

wow. i like it. it seems pretty realistic. the pirates in mlb 2k10's sim went 80-82, which is pretty heartbreaking lol. and in the show, they simmed to be 82-80. lol. that's why i love the show. just kidding. the show is definitely top notch, but not because it simmed the pirates to a winning record. again, i wish i knew wat some of their stats were.

# 8 Kanten @ 05/28/10 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThaShark28_316


	Wow @ yall doing my Astros like that...48-114 WTF?!?!?!?!

Taken a look at their record lately?

# 9 capnharry @ 05/28/10 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grnngld


	How are these results accurate at all? When was the last time the league had TWO teams losing over 110 games, if at all? How in the world are the A's gonna lose 112 games with the rotation, bullpen, and defense they have? If these are the results you're getting, it's time for SCEA to reevaluate how they come up with ratings.

I know the cliche 'that's why they play 162 games', but at their current winning percentages, the Indians would lose 101 games, the Astros would lose 107, and the Orioles would lose 111. Not out of the realm of possibilities.

# 10 Ckhoss29 @ 05/28/10 11:39 PM

Wow Juan Rivera 44 hrs, 133 rbi, talk about a career year.

# 11 HolyCrusade56 @ 05/29/10 01:30 AM

I know I'm acting biased because I'm a Mets fan, but there is no way they are going to be well under .500 this year.

# 12 dickey1331 @ 05/29/10 02:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by HolyCrusade56


	I know I'm acting biased because I'm a Mets fan, but there is no way they are going to be well under .500 this year.

Same here for the Rangers

# 13 Grnngld @ 05/29/10 06:12 AM

I'm not "hatin". I'm saying it's simply unrealistic. In the modern era, (1900-present day) there have only been 11 (!) teams that have lost 110 or more games in a season. That's 11 in a 110 years folks, roughly one horrific team every decade! Obviously, that's insanely rare. And there has never been a season with two teams both losing over 110 games.

In fact, the last team to lose over 110 games were the '03 Detroit Tigers as I'm sure some of you remember. You'd have go back almost 50 years to find the last team before the Tigers to lose that many amount of games, the '62 Mets.

So no, I wouldn't say these results are satisfactory or realistic at all. What was the methodology in procuring these results anyways? Did they just sim one season and leave it at that? That's pointless; I could do that myself.

You need to sim multiple seasons and take the aggregate of those sims in order to get proper results. And if they did that and the results still came out wonky then obviously something's wrong with the game's ratings.

# 14 CPRoark @ 05/29/10 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grnngld


	I'm not "hatin". I'm saying it's simply unrealistic. In the modern era, (1900-present day) there have only been 11 (!) teams that have lost 110 or more games in a season. That's 11 in a 110 years folks, roughly one horrific team every decade! Obviously, that's insanely rare. And there has never been a season with two teams both losing over 110 games. In fact, the last team to lose over 110 games were the '03 Detroit Tigers as I'm sure some of you remember. You'd have go back almost 50 years to find the last team before the Tigers to lose that many amount of games, the '62 Mets. So no, I wouldn't say these results are satisfactory or realistic at all. What was the methodology in procuring these results anyways? Did they just sim one season and leave it at that? That's pointless; I could do that myself. You need to sim multiple seasons and take the aggregate of those sims in order to get proper results. And if they did that and the results still came out wonky then obviously something's wrong with the game's ratings.

First, while it's historically very rare for any team to lose over 110 games, that really doesn't prevent it from ever happening. In fact, last year 5 teams lost 97+ games, and the Pirates were only a loss away from making it two 100+ loss teams. +/- 10 games isn't much. However, I agree--and point out in the article--that that aspect of the simulation doesn't seem likely to happen.

And yes, when we do these sims, we only do it once and then write about them as if it were the actual season. I wouldn't call it pointless, though it is primarily for fun. The question regarding statistical accuracy is essentially for discussion, though one would hope that in any game even one simulation would generate relatively realistic results.

I'm ok with these results; they aren't perfect and, as you and I point out, there are some issues. As you also point out, you could do the same thing at home, and post your results. You could also sim the season 100 times and post the aggregates too, if you want to do it that way. I think most people would welcome that data to the discussion.

# 15 B_rad13 @ 05/29/10 12:23 PM

Way more realistic, the only thing I can't see happening is the White Sox winning the AL Central

# 16 B_rad13 @ 05/29/10 12:25 PM

And yes the Astros will lose more then 115 games, they are pretty bad this year.

# 17 ParisB @ 05/29/10 02:22 PM

I see a lot of guys participate in fantasy drafts, play 30-team franchises, make trades, make their own roster transactions, create their own players, make their own lineups and rotations, use their personnel differently, and let their "fantasy" virtual season unfold with the CPU....but then they complain if a simulated season slightly differs from what they might be accustomed to.

Is it that big of a deal? I don't think so. We're already playing in a fantasy world. What's the point of playing if in your baseball season in The Show will always be the Yanks/Red Sox/Twins/Angels making the playoffs every year like in real life?

# 18 ThaShark28_316 @ 05/29/10 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kanten


	Taken a look at their record lately?

I know, trust me.

# 19 stlstudios189 @ 05/29/10 08:25 PM

Oakland 50-112 and the Whitesox winning the Central will not happen

# 20 Grnngld @ 05/29/10 09:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CPRoark


	First, while it's historically very rare for any team to lose over 110 games, that really doesn't prevent it from ever happening. In fact, last year 5 teams lost 97+ games, and the Pirates were only a loss away from making it two 100+ loss teams. +/- 10 games isn't much. However, I agree--and point out in the article--that that aspect of the simulation doesn't seem likely to happen. And yes, when we do these sims, we only do it once and then write about them as if it were the actual season. I wouldn't call it pointless, though it is primarily for fun. The question regarding statistical accuracy is essentially for discussion, though one would hope that in any game even one simulation would generate relatively realistic results. I'm ok with these results; they aren't perfect and, as you and I point out, there are some issues. As you also point out, you could do the same thing at home, and post your results. You could also sim the season 100 times and post the aggregates too, if you want to do it that way. I think most people would welcome that data to the discussion.

I agree with most of what you said, except for the +/- 10 games not meaning much. A 10 game swing is a HUGE difference. In any case, I was responding to the guy who implied that I was off my rocker for saying that the results are unrealistic. I think I have a legit case.

But anyways yeah these are just sim results and it's useless to debate them further. I'd take real life results anyday, as my A's are definitely doing better than their 50-112 prediction

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