MLB 10: The Show Simulates the 2010 Season

[NckWalkr]

This is a pretty much true to life sim...better than 2k's.

[MLB01]

Quote: Originally Posted by NckWalkr

This is a pretty much true to life sim...better than 2k's.

I was gonna say that, but.. I thought twice and came to the conclusion I wouldn't have to say that. I can actually see that MLB 2K10's simulation engine is basic because there was about 6 pairs of teams that ended the season with the same amount of wins and losses.

[HolyCrusade56]

I know I'm acting biased because I'm a Mets fan, but there is no way they are going to be well under .500 this year.

[dickey1331]

Quote: Originally Posted by HolyCrusade56

I know I'm acting biased because I'm a Mets fan, but there is no way they are going to be well under .500 this year.

Same here for the Rangers

[Grnngld]

I'm not "hatin". I'm saying it's simply unrealistic. In the modern era, (1900-present day) there have only been 11 (!) teams that have lost 110 or more games in a season. That's 11 in a 110 years folks, roughly one horrific team every decade! Obviously, that's insanely rare. And there has never been a season with two teams both losing over 110 games.

In fact, the last team to lose over 110 games were the '03 Detroit Tigers as I'm sure some of you remember. You'd have go back almost 50 years to find the last team before the Tigers to lose that many amount of games, the '62 Mets.

So no, I wouldn't say these results are satisfactory or realistic at all. What was the methodology in procuring these results anyways? Did they just sim one season and leave it at that? That's pointless; I could do that myself.

You need to sim multiple seasons and take the aggregate of those sims in order to get proper results. And if they did that and the results still came out wonky then obviously something's wrong with the game's ratings.

[CPRoark]

Quote: Originally Posted by Grnngld

I'm not "hatin". I'm saying it's simply unrealistic. In the modern era, (1900-present day) there have only been 11 (!) teams that have lost 110 or more games in a season. That's 11 in a 110 years folks, roughly one horrific team every decade! Obviously, that's insanely rare. And there has never been a season with two teams both losing over 110 games. In fact, the last team to lose over 110 games were the '03 Detroit Tigers as I'm sure some of you remember. You'd have go back almost 50 years to find the last team before the Tigers to lose that many amount of games, the '62 Mets. So no, I wouldn't say these results are satisfactory or realistic at all. What was the methodology in procuring these results anyways? Did they just sim one season and leave it at that? That's pointless; I could do that myself. You need to sim multiple seasons and take the aggregate of those sims in order to get proper results. And if they did that and the results still came out wonky then obviously something's wrong with the game's ratings.

First, while it's historically very rare for any team to lose over 110 games, that really doesn't prevent it from ever happening. In fact, last year 5 teams lost 97+ games, and the Pirates were only a loss away from making it two 100+ loss teams. +/- 10 games isn't much. However, I agree--and point out in the article--that that aspect of the simulation doesn't seem likely to happen.

And yes, when we do these sims, we only do it once and then write about them as if it were the actual season. I wouldn't call it pointless, though it is primarily for fun. The question regarding statistical accuracy is essentially for discussion, though one would hope that in any game even one simulation would generate relatively realistic results.

I'm ok with these results; they aren't perfect and, as you and I point out, there are some issues. As you also point out, you could do the same thing at home, and post your results. You could also sim the season 100 times and post the aggregates too, if you want to do it that way. I think most people would welcome that data to the discussion.

[B_rad13]

Way more realistic, the only thing I can't see happening is the White Sox winning the AL Central

[B_rad13]

And yes the Astros will lose more then 115 games, they are pretty bad this year.