Sunday, May 25, 2014
THE BOSTON GLOBE (RED SOX DYNASTY REPORT)
The AL East, as usual, is loaded and extremely competitive. The best division in baseball, and home to the World Series Champions, could very well send three teams to the post season that have a shot at going all the way. While no team is perfect, and all of them have their issues, depth and star power highlight the contenders.
AL EAST (PROJECTED FINISH)
T-1 Boston Red Sox (92-70) : The Red Sox aren't overwhelming in any one area, but what they do have is depth basically across the board. They have established hitters, perennial All-Stars, and two rookies that have enormous promise. David Ortiz probably has at least one season left in the tank, and after being counted out two seasons ago he continues to be very productive. Manager John Farrell used an outfield platoon almost to perfection in 2013, and he will probably go back to well in 2014. The combination of Jonny Gomes, Daniel Nava, and Grady Sizemore will fill in at LF and provide depth behind CF Jackie Bradley Jr. and RF Shane Victorino. Sizemore, out of baseball since 2011, looked good during spring training. Signing Sizemore was a great low-risk high-upside move, if he can be 75% of his former self they will have struck gold. The rotation, while not spectacular, is very very solid. Jake Peavy and John Lackey appear to turned things around, and if Clay Buchholz stays healthy they could be one of the best rotations in the AL. Add in the depth at RP, and Koji Uehara closing games with his devastating splitter, and they have a decent shot at another World Series appearance.
Can Boston repeat as champs?
T-1 Tampa Bay Rays (92-70) : Pitching? Check. Defense? Check. Hitting? Maybe. As usual the Rays are a very good team, and they only finished 5 game behind Boston in 2013. They return one of the best young rotations in baseball with David Price, Matt Moore, the surprising Alex Cobb, and youngster Chris Archer. The Rays have also called up Jake Odorizzi, a highly graded prospect, to fill in the 5th slot in their rotation. They also have Joel Peralta, Jake McGee, and Grant Balfour closing, so they have pitching covered. Defensively they are always good, as TB stresses athletic guys who can flash the leather, but their hitting will determine how far they can go. They have a superstar in 3B Evan Longoria, a high-upside vet with 2B Ben Zobrist, and a potential superstar in RF Wil Myers. If those three, and perennial offensive question mark Desmond Jennings, have great seasons they could put Boston away and finally bring a championship to Tampa.
Will TB finally live up to their potential?
#3 New York Yankees (90-72) : The Yankees are LOADED on offense, that cannot be stressed enough. Even with Alex Rodriguez suspended for the season, they will be a nightmare at the plate. The addition of CF Jacoby Ellsbury, RF Carlos Beltran, and C Brian McCann combined with the return of 1B Mark Teixiera put substantial life into their offense. Add the surprisingly productive DH Alfonso Soriano and speedy LF Brett Gardner and you have another murderers row. Unfortunately for the Yankees, they may need that murderer's row to hammer their way through games, their defense and pitching is very shaky. The OF will probably be elite defensively, but the Kelly Johnson-Derek Jeter-Brian Roberts-Mark Teixiera infield is going to let a bunch of hits through. The crown jewel of free agency, Japanese Ace Masahiro Tanaka, could be a legit ace or a very expensive third starter depending on how he adjusts. The way their rotation has shaped up, they can't afford a single injury or down season if they are going to be a playoff team. CC Sabathia has been in steep decline (and no longer a #1 starter), Hiroki Kuroda is 39, Ivan Nova has shown sparks but mostly fizzle, and Michael Pineda is extremely shaky. Add in Yankee Stadium and this team is going to give up almost as many runs as it scores, but that shouldn't stop them from winning 85-90 games.
The Yankees don't have much room for error.
#4 Toronto Blue Jays (85-77) : The Blue Jays were the popular dark horse contender in 2013, but they just couldn't catch a break all season. After spending a ton of money and making trades to win-now, they won nothing and ended the season 5th (74-88) in the division. SS Jose Reyes is back, for how long is unknown, but as long as he stays in the lineup they have a dynamic weapon. OF Jose Bautista will need to bounce back after two disappointing seasons since his monster break out (2010-2011), and 1B Edwin Encarnacion will have to continue being an All-Star hitter. If 3B Brett Lawrie and OF Colby Rasmus can live up to their potential this team could be very good, but so far that's a big if. Toronto's biggest problem will be it's pitching staff, headlined by knuckleballer RA Dickey and the soft-tossing Mark Buerhle. After those two it's mercurial and oft injured talent Brandon Morrow, and an untested rookie in Drew Hutchison, and then it's a bunch of guys. They may be tempted to call up one of their top prospects, Marcus Stroman, but if the guys already up aren't getting it done it won't do much good.
Will injuries scuttle the Blue Jays again?
#5 Baltimore Orioles (80-82) : The Orioles seem to have pieced together good seasons from 2012-2013 riding close wins, but this is probably the season it catches up with them. 1B Chris Davis should still be in MVP contention, C Matt Wieters and CF Adam Jones should continue to improve, but outside of those three there isn't a whole lot of firepower. 3B Manny Machado could very well be a future superstar at 3B if he recovers from off-season surgery, and 2B Jonathan Schoop has promise, but they probably won't be able to overcome the other teams in the league. Their rotation is slightly above average, and that won't be enough to get them anywhere. SP Chris Tillman and free agent signing Ubaldo Jimenez could be very good, or they could get shelled on a weekly basis, and the back end of their bullpen is a giant question mark. In any other division the Orioles might be a fringe wild-card team, but in the AL East they are going to get beaten down.
Baltimore's pitching will probably kill their chances in 2014.
Saturday, May 24, 2014
SARASOTA, FL - Red Sox closed out a busy month in the Grapefruit League this week, most of the activity went down in the front office, but for the most part there weren't many surprises on the field.
Prior to the start of spring training the Red Sox pulled the trigger on a massive coaching and scouting shake up that may point to further changes during or after the season. GM Ben Cherington started the purge, working closely with Manager Jon Farrell, and released a number of position coaches. Greg Colbrunn (Hitting), Juan Nieves (Pitching), and Brian Butterfield (3rd Base) were all relieved of their positions. Jorge Rodriguez, 38, now takes over as hitting coach and should help improve and develop Boston's plate discipline. Veteran pitching coach Devin Lipscomb takes over a pitching staff that should be solid, but many hope he will be able to cut back on hits and HR's allowed. Daniel Cora takes over at 3rd Base, specializing in fielding, he will be working closely with the infielders to help improve an already good defense.
As for the scouting department, the front office has decided to shift their focus out of the Central region and put more emphasis on International scouting. Tommy Webber (Central) and Shaun Munoz (East) were let go and replaced with Robert Jack (International) and Richard Pressly (West). Both Jack and Pressly specialize in pitchers and are well regarded in the scouting community. Farm Director Jon Johnson was retained and should continue to work with scouts to help keeps Boston's farm system loaded.
As for the actual baseball, nothing all that exciting to report. The vets played well and the rookies looked like rookies at times, but few jumped out as particularly worrisome. It's hard to take spring training too seriously since the sample size is so small, the only player that really helped themselves (despite not hitting very well) was OF Grady Sizemore. Sizemore has been out of baseball since 2011 (71 games with Cleveland), but he looked excellent in the outfield and won himself a starting spot in LF.
Can Sizemore return to All-Star form?
SPRING TRAINING (By The Numbers)
Red Sox : 12-16, 4th AL East
Hot Hitters
DH David Ortiz : .324 6HR 18RBI
1B Mike Napoli : .267 4HR
3B Will Middlebrooks : .262 4HR
Cold Hitters
LF Grady Sizemore : .178 3HR
PROJECTED STARTERS (* Returning Starters)
C AJ Pierzynski
1B Mike Napoli*
2B Dustin Pedroia*
SS Xander Bogaerts (R)
3B Will Middlebrooks*
RF Shane Victorino*
CF Jackey Bradley Jr. (R)
LF Grady Sizemore
DH David Ortiz*
SP Jon Lester*
SP Clay Buchholz*
SP Jake Peavy*
SP Jon Lackey*
SP Felix Doubront*
SU Junichi Tazawa*
CL Koji Uehara*
Thursday, May 22, 2014
After winning their third World Series in ten years, the Red Sox find themselves at a fork in the road. The team either needs to rebuild in the next few years or double down on the aging core and try for one more title before a rebuild is required. While their choice isn't clear yet, where they are in the standings come August will definitely inform ownership about which direction they want to head in.
Boston opened the offseason by losing a few big names and players at key positions, but they managed to fill most of the voids rather quickly. Boston's one-year qualifying offers were rejected by OF Jacoby Ellsbury, SS Stephen Drew, and 1B/C Mike Napoli. C Jarrod Saltalamacchia was allowed to leave via free agency, so the Red Sox found themselves with a number of holes in their line up. The Red Sox first move was to sign veteran C AJ Pierzynski to a one-year contract, giving younger players like Ryan Lavarnway and highly rated prospect Blake Swihart more time to develop. GM Ben Cherington then quietly resigned Mike Napoli to a two-year contract and added former Cardinals RP Edward Mujica on a similar length deal.
Napoli back at first fills a big hole in the lineup.
With the core of Boston's team 30 and older, ownership decided it was time to start rebuilding the team from the farm up. DH David Ortiz will probably not be retained when his contract is up at the end of the season, and veterans like 2B Dustin Pedrioa and SP Jon Lester are about to be on the wrong side of 30. With this in mind the team is likely to aggressively rebuild their team with trades during the season, always opting for younger talent.
Is Bogaerts ready for a full season?
Losing Drew and Ellsbury wouldn't require FA signing because SS/3B Xander Bogaerts and OF Jackie Bradley Jr. will be called up permanently for the 2014 season. Barring injury, or a total decline in production, Bogaerts and Bradley Jr. are expected to be starters when Spring Training closes. Bogaerts was impressive during the playoffs and figures to improve with more playing time.
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