rudyjuly2's Blog
From past experience, you can expect offensive tackles and pass rushers to be drafted high, regardless of how valuable they really are. While people have speculated that Andre Smith could slip outside the Top 10 and that Michael Oher will go in the bottom half of the first round, expect these players to go earlier than expected. Just look how the Falcons jumped up to draft Sam Baker at #21 last year despite not carrying a first round grade by most draftnicks. Jason Smith, Eugene Monroe and Andre Smith will all go in the Top 10 and Oher won’t fall that far behind them. The draft is strong at tackle.
There are three premium pass rushers in this draft: Brian Orakpo, Everette Brown and Aaron Maybin. As they come off the board, expect teams to trade up to get them, as there is a real drop off after that. They are all undersized 4-3 defensive ends that could also play as a rush linebacker in a 3-4. None of them played OLB in college though so the transition could be tough (ask Vernon Gholston). Maybin would probably be best suited to be a 3-4 OLB due to his lack of size. He ran slow at the combine so will probably be picked last among the three.
Aaron Curry may be a great football player but he hasn’t proven to be a great pass rusher in college (not his role) and teams will shy away from him in the first couple picks just because they don’t want to make him the highest paid, non pass rushing LB in the draft.
Running backs seem to be the position teams feel they don’t need to draft high anymore. Despite the fact that Adrian Peterson was incredible as a #7 pick and how much of an impact Chris Johnson made last year (I criticized that pick – doh!) we have two first round running backs in Knowshon Moreno and Chris Wells. I think Moreno is a stud. He is a tremendous RB who only lacks in the long speed as his 40 time was pedestrian at roughly 4.55. Wells is the big thumper of a RB who gets nicked up too much but is productive. Moreno is quicker and can make more things happen and with most teams going to two running back systems, I expect Moreno to be the first drafted. He will probably slide too far in this draft but be a stud!
There is a deep group of big and fast wide receivers to pick from. Michael Crabtree is the number one guy but the fact he never ran a 40 time, measured shorter than he was listed at Texas Tech and played in a goofy offense might hurt him. His foot injury is largely considered to be minor but may affect his draft status. Not a single wide receiver was taken in the first round last year but expect Crabtree to go high and a run to happen late in the first round on these guys.
This is a weak crop of defensive backs. Don’t expect many to go too high or in the first round as only two or three are expected to make their way into the first round.
When will the NFL learn that defensive tackles are almost as hard to project as quarterbacks? So many busts or disappointments at the top of the draft the last few years that teams should stick to drafting kids in the later rounds and develop them. Glenn Dorsey, Jonathon Sullivan, DeWayne Robertson all come to mind. B.J. Raji is a nice fat body with boobs that can play the nose or the big DT in a 4-3. He will probably go in the middle of the round. Peria Jerry will fit the pass rushing DT in a 4-3 defense and will go late in the first round.
MOCK DRAFT 1.1
1. Detroit Lions – QB Matthew Stafford.
The Lions need major help at QB, DT, MLB, CB, DE and a host of other areas. They could certainly pick another OT but it looks like they will go with the quarterback. Stafford is NOT a sure thing as he’s thrown at least 10 INTs in all three years in college. He does have good athletic ability and a rocket for an arm. He will need to develop better touch on some of his passes.
2. St. Louis Rams – OT Jason Smith.
The Rams need to replace Orlando Pace. They need a lot of help as well but grabbing a good LT is always a good move.
3. Kansas City Chiefs – OT Eugene Monroe.
The first surprise of the draft! Aaron Curry would seem to fit a big need for Kansas City. However, Pioli has never really drafted linebackers high at New England and just signed Zach Thomas as well. He drafts a tackle to pair with Brandon Albert to strengthen the OL and get great value for the pick.
4. Seattle – LB Aaron Curry.
Seattle was really hoping to grab one of the top two tackles but take the next best thing in Curry. New coach Jim Mora wants to upgrade the defense and after signing Houshmanzadeh, will pass on Crabtree.
5. Cleveland – WR Michael Crabtree.
The Browns have already traded away Kellen Winslow and are looking to move Braylon Edwards. Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn need someone to throw the ball to! The defense needs pass rushers so taking Brian Orakpo here would also make sense. This pick does seem to depend on whether Edwards gets moved on draft day (Giants anyone?).
6. Cincinnati Bengals – OT Andre Smith.
The laughing stock of the combine as he showed up out of shape, didn’t work out and disappeared without telling people. Some people felt he could fall out of round one. Please. The guy might have been the most dominant tackle in college football. He has a soft body but will be a road grading RT and can play LT or be moved inside.
7. Oakland Raiders – WR Jeremy Maclin.
Al Davis is obsessed with speed and playmakers. Given the fact he’s spent first rounders on a punter and kicker, don’t be shocked at how high he may value Maclin’s return ability. Al may even take him over Crabtree who doesn’t run as fast.
8. Washington Redskins (through Jacksonville) – DE Brian Orakpo.
The Jags really want one of the top two receivers and are disappointed both are gone. Orakpo is too good to slip any further and Washington jumps up to nab the best pass DE in the draft ahead of Green Bay. Buffalo may be in the mix for a trade up as well (Note this is a projected trade and is severly impacted by Cleveland at #5).
9. Green Bay – DE/OLB Everett Brown.
They are moving to a 3-4 and want to draft a pass rusher. They are in a great position to get one of the top three players without having to trade up.
10. San Francisco – QB Mark Sanchez.
This is the trendy pick for the 49ers. They need a long-term answer at QB and they take the local kid. He should be available and as long as the 49ers like him, this makes sense.
11. Buffalo Bills – DE Aaron Maybin.
They need pass rush and DL help. Maybin is the last good pass-rushing end on the draft board so they snatch him up. I wonder how well Maybin will fit in as a 4-3 DE and he may fall to a 3-4 team later on in the first round. He may slide.
12. Denver Broncos – DT B.J. Raji
They are moving to a 3-4 and want a nice fat nose tackle to help solve their run defense problems. Tyson Jackson could fit in here as well.
13. Jacksonville Jaguars (from projected Washington trade) – OT Michael Oher.
They reach for Oher a little bit but Del Rio wants to upgrade his line and will draft a wide receiver later as there should be plenty at the top of round two.
14. New Orleans Saints – DB Malcolm Jenkins.
The Saints need secondary help and Jenkins can play CB or possibly S. There is some concern about his speed but he has decent size and will get early playing time.
15. Houston Texans – RB Knowshon Moreno.
The Texans only have small but speedy Steve Slaton in the backfield and take one of the best players in the draft. Moreno will add instant offense to this team. They need some defensive help but this surprise pick will not disappoint at all.
16. San Diego Chargers – LB Brian Cushing.
The Chargers need more depth at LB and Cushing can play inside or outside for them. He should step in right away. Tyson Jackson at DE would be a really good fit for their 3-4 as well.
17. New York Jets – DE Tyson Jackson.
The Jets offense needs some help but their 3-4 defense can’t pass on Tyson Jackson who falls into their laps. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jets even went RB here.
18. Denver Broncos – DE/OLB Larry English.
They need to help their pass rush. They got their NT in Raji and now reach a little to fill a rush LB spot in their 3-4 defense.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – WR Darius Heyward-Bey.
It’s time to breathe some life into this offense with playmakers and this is a big guy with speed. They may take a strong look at Josh Freeman at QB here.
20. Detroit Lions – ILB Rey Maualuga.
The Lions have badly needed a MLB the last few years and now can add Rey to a defense that upgraded with Julian Peterson in the offseason.
21. Philadelphia Eagles – TE Brandon Pettigrew.
They would love it if Knowshon Moreno fell here as he would fit their offense extremely well and be the replacement for Westbrook. Chris Wells is not a good fit for their offense so they go with the best TE in the draft.
22. Minnesota Vikings – WR Percy Harvin.
Brad Childress will love finding ways to get this guy the ball. An explosive player that will help take the pressure off of AP.
23. New England Patriots – LB Clay Matthews.
The Patriots are old at LB and after getting rid of Vrabel, Clay Matthews will fit in nicely.
24. Atlanta Falcons – DT Peria Jerry.
They need to help out Jonathon Abraham on the pass rush and while the good outside rushers are gone, Jerry will provide a nice push as a pass rushing DT.
25. Miami Dolphins – OLB Clint Sintim.
The Dolphins need a CB more than anything else but Parcells won’t take the prima-donna Vontae Davis. They also need a pass rusher and a WR. Sintim is a perfect OLB for the 3-4.
26. Baltimore Ravens - CB Vontae Davis.
They get younger at CB with a tremendous physical specimen in Davis. Is hard to coach and his attitude allows him to fall here.
27. Indianapolis Colts – OT Eben Britton.
The Colts usually do whatever it takes to keep Peyton happy and the offense clicking. They could go with a WR to replace Harrison but keeping the OL strong is also important.
28. Philadelphia Eagles – WR Hakeem Nicks.
The Eagles would like to take an OL with one of their first picks but don’t want to reach. Getting more targets for McNabb is never a bad thing.
29. New York Giants – WR Kenny Britt.
They could trade for Braylon Edwards but the loss of Plaxico in the playoffs illustrated the need for more weapons for Eli.
30. Tennessee Titans – CB Alphonso Smith.
The Titans have never felt the pressure to draft a WR early on despite the need. They could use some help at CB and Smith is a great player even if he’s short. Could see a trade for Chris Wells here if still available.
31. Arizona Cardinals – RB Chris Wells.
They love the fact that they need a RB and one of the two best ones in the draft falls to them. Wells is a bit injury prone and doesn’t have a lot of wiggle but is big, fast and productive when healthy. If Wells does slide this far, expect some teams like the Browns to try to move back up to the first round and take him with the Titans pick.
32. Pittsburgh Steelers – C Max Unger.
The Steelers will look to upgrade the OL and take the best available player here. Unger is versatile and can play almost anywhere.
# 1
Africa Jr @ Apr 14
I agree on all of it except the eagles taking a TE in the 1st Round!?!?!?!?!?!?
# 2
thudias @ Apr 15
How old are the Patriots at linebacker? Only Bruschi is really old and Thomas is 31
Outside Linebacker 58 Pierre Woods 95 Tully Banta-Cain 49 Vince Redd Inside Linebacker 51 Jerod Mayo 52 Eric Alexander Inside Linebacker 54 Tedy Bruschi 59 Gary Guyton 91 Bo Ruud Outside Linebacker 96 Adalius Thomas 98 Shawn Crable 48 Angelo Craig
52 Eric Alexander
59 Gary Guyton 91 Bo Ruud
Outside Linebacker 58 Pierre Woods 95 Tully Banta-Cain 49 Vince Redd Inside Linebacker 51 Jerod Mayo 52 Eric Alexander Inside Linebacker 54 Tedy Bruschi 59 Gary Guyton 91 Bo Ruud Outside Linebacker 96 Adalius Thomas 98 Shawn Crable 48 Angelo Craig
52 Eric Alexander
59 Gary Guyton 91 Bo Ruud
# 4
rudyjuly2 @ Apr 16
Thudius, most of those young LBs aren't good though. Mayo is the only young and good LB the Patriots have. Adalius Thomas seems old as well and 31 in the NFL ain't young. The fact they got rid of Vrabel and yet have brought Seau in for playing time the last couple years seems to indicate to me they would like another young LB that can play at a high level. I'm sure the Patriots might want to address CB but they have addressed that through some older players this offseason.
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