I'm assuming that by the 6th inning, the starter is starting to fatigue.

..as for 1st inning, probably the pitcher getting his feel before settling down the next inning. 3rd and 4th inning usually 2nd time around the lineup..

You're on the money here. The comeback situation has gotten somewhat better over the years but still has some effect in games but not like before

stast are scewed . in order to see a direct correlation wouldnt both test groups have to have the same sample size, and the exact game conditions (meaning teams, players, rosters, etc). 2 season of mlb games vs 185 games by the cpu. Id say the evidence is flawed.
player movement especially when calculating stats into the gameplay would definetly skew the numbers.
thats my take

Good stuff as always, Nomo. I think it is largely related to Confidence. Scoring is high (relatively speaking) in the first inning when confidence is lower. Then, more often than not, the starter finds some rhythm and scoring goes down. The spike in the 6th inning could be due to the combination of a fatigued starter and introduction of a reliever with the lower default confidence (also usually a lower-rated RP).

As for the slight uptick in the 9th... I'm not sure what to think. New RPs mean lower confidence, but in many instances more highly-rated pitchers are in the game. I assume that's why the real MLB numbers take a dive in the 9th (and slightly in the 8th). I guess 0.54 isn't too far away from the mean for 185 games that it couldn't be somewhat of an anomaly, but it is somewhat puzzling.

Id also take the average of 185 games and compare it to the SHOW, not the average of 3 seasons.!!!!

I dont think the games vs the CPU are scripted at all. I played the Angels with the Reds on friday 3/16/12. I was loosing 2 runs to 0 until the top of 9th inning. Dat dude Brandon Phillips and Votto came true big time. Phillips and Votto both hit 2 run homers for a 4-2 win. THE SHOW IS AWESOME!!!!. I closed the door when I put in the man I like to call "the brown bomber" Aroldis Chapmin.

sorry brandon and votto came through big time

@tril

Stats are okay. I obviously have more data to go by from MLB given that they have played more games, but that just means the numbers for MLB are more accurate. The numbers for the Show may not be as good, coming from a smaller sample, but the trend we see in the plot is definitely there, regardless of how many games I play. I started seeing it after 50 games or so, and it never vanished after playing more than 100 games afterwards.

The graph is interesting. What it might say to me is there might be too big a gap between the good and bad hitters in the Show. A few good hitters in a row in the Show is capable of more offense than they should while a few bad hitters in a row might not be enough. So when that tough part of the lineup comes up late in the game they might score a little more than what they do in the real MLB. Not sure.

I'm losing so much that I 'd love to be in a situation where I could blow more games lol.

Large sample size is a large sample size. I don't think there's any bias for conditions assuming he's not drawing from the same few teams but rather selecting teams randomly or systematically varied.

Those numbers don't seem huge, but they are statistically significant. I understand a spike in those innings in regular baseball, but especially the uptick in the 8th and 9th, I'm convinced The Show makes comebacks.

Really good idea to post this, too! Good work.

Just to clarify, the figure is actually not telling anything about comeback. It's just showing that CPU tends to score slightly more runs in 6th (as well as 1st and 9th), no matter if you are winning or losing. So the issue is what causes such peaking in scoring...

As many have mentioned, I also think pitcher confidence/fatigue/ability playing their roles.

I believe there is a comeback code. Up until a couple years ago, they had a comeback switch. It seems like funny things like fluke hits, bad umpire calls, crazy errors and horrible pitches tend to come in the sixth or seventh innings in my games. It's almost comical at times. I feel the same about other sports games too.

I think there is something to say about the 9th inning though. In real MLB that is the lowest scoring inning but it is 3rd highest in the Show. Why the gap in the 9th?

I personally don't think it's scripted. However every inning after the 5th shows a bump in runs which is kind of curious. What's also even more alarming is that the 9th inning is the 3rd highest scoring inning in the Show but the lowest scoring in real life.