08:20 PM - February 19, 2011 by Steve_OS
Kotaku's Owen Good explains why the NFL’s labor strife might be the best thing that happened to Madden.
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Madden 12 News Post
08:20 PM - February 19, 2011 by Steve_OSKotaku's Owen Good explains why the NFL’s labor strife might be the best thing that happened to Madden.
Madden NFL 12 Videos
Member Comments
# 1
pietasterp @ 02/19/11 08:31 PM
The last point in the article is, I think, the most salient - I'm 100% sure that the NFL did not realize they were making the deal exclusive into perpetuity (and putting EA completely in the driver's seat for the forseeable future) when they originally agreed to this deal at the end of 2004. There will be no bidders other than EA left in 2012, or 2013, or whenever the license technically expires. EA holds all the cards, as they're the only ones willing to fork over major cash for the exclusive license given that they have an established franchise and sizable investment with serious pop culture (and monetary) cache that is a proven revenue stream. Everyone else has already been shut out by what will then be nearly a decade of inactivity. No one's going to spend $300 million on the hopes of growing a new football IP from the ground up. Game over.
What I find interesting (and slightly irritating, for some reason) is that people are just now seeing this in the major gaming media outlets. I believe we had this exact point nailed to a "T" way back in 2004 in the original "EA Gets Exclusive NFL License" thread - which actually would be interesting to dig up and see how dead-on the OS readers were at that time. I mean, how is it possible that we all saw this back then (or some of us, anyway) and it's only now becoming apparent to everyone else? Is the videogame biz still that underground/elusive to everyone else that they couldn't see what even casual sports gamers knew 7 years ago? It was obvious then, as it is now, that when that deal was made it would be the end of any non-Madden game for the rest of the modern age of videogaming. Welcome to the party, kotaku....
What I find interesting (and slightly irritating, for some reason) is that people are just now seeing this in the major gaming media outlets. I believe we had this exact point nailed to a "T" way back in 2004 in the original "EA Gets Exclusive NFL License" thread - which actually would be interesting to dig up and see how dead-on the OS readers were at that time. I mean, how is it possible that we all saw this back then (or some of us, anyway) and it's only now becoming apparent to everyone else? Is the videogame biz still that underground/elusive to everyone else that they couldn't see what even casual sports gamers knew 7 years ago? It was obvious then, as it is now, that when that deal was made it would be the end of any non-Madden game for the rest of the modern age of videogaming. Welcome to the party, kotaku....
# 2
thundergatti @ 02/19/11 08:44 PM
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I just have to question the assumption you made that no one else would be willing to invest in the license. Its the National Football League, and the game has demonstrated its profitability over time.
This is EXACTLY why I voted no in the front page poll.
I don't see NFL 2K coming back.
I don't see NFL 2K coming back.
# 4
permanent1 @ 02/19/11 10:29 PM
Considering 2K already approached the NFL recently prior to this exension i would not be so sure about that.
# 5
bonafied0034 @ 02/19/11 10:41 PM
Not necessarily on topic here, but if the current CBA expires and the NFLPA decertifies (like they claim they will do), doesn't that mean that EA will not be able to include those players in the game unless they pay them each individually (since they couldn't give the union one lump sum to distribute)? Would EA fork out that cash to each individual player?
If that is the case, then that, to me, is why this might be the best thing to happen. In my opinion, that would cause people to lose interest in Madden. After all, APF2k8 did not sell as well because it did not have current NFL players in the game. Would this then cause 2k sports to release another APF game to compete with a no-NFL player Madden? Again, this all depends on if the above assumption is true.
If that is the case, then that, to me, is why this might be the best thing to happen. In my opinion, that would cause people to lose interest in Madden. After all, APF2k8 did not sell as well because it did not have current NFL players in the game. Would this then cause 2k sports to release another APF game to compete with a no-NFL player Madden? Again, this all depends on if the above assumption is true.
# 6
Nab_Impervious_XII @ 02/19/11 11:52 PM
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Overall, it's an article filled with bad news for the immediate future, but a potential silver lining scenario for the new console generation era. Since both 2k and EA have to essentially reset their developmental cycles to meet the demands of the new consoles in 2014, they will be able to more fairly compete for the license again.
At that point, it will be up to 2k if it wants to cough out the big bucks to potentially share dual-exclusivity with EA.
# 7
unfriendlyghst @ 02/20/11 12:25 AM
Wow just wow. We have an entire generation of gamers that has no idea of what a half time show or draft class update looks like. Its sad that so many kids are growing up with Madden teaching them about football fundamentals that don't exist.
# 8
dickey1331 @ 02/20/11 05:36 AM
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I think the best point this article made that hasn't been covered in other threads here already is why this extension is so valuable to the NFL. Worst case there's no NFL next season. The value of the license is greatly diminished in the face of a post-lockout NFL world. It would be harder to demand as much either for an exclusive or non-exclusive license. This is a good point and I don't think it was brought up in the other thread about the extension.
Now worst case we miss or have a shortened season, things recover, and the NFL is likely in a stronger position than it would have been to command a renewal of it's current or similar licensing arrangement as long as EA is still willing to go along. As much speculation and wishful thinking to the contrary about them bowing out, I doubt they'll spare much expense to ensure they remain the lone official game of the NFL... would love to see a link or story that has anything substantiated that EA is wavering or would consider dropping it.
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# 11
kjcheezhead @ 02/20/11 03:09 PM
The last part is something I've pointed out myself as well as many others have. 2k has recently approached the NFL about obtaining a license, but no one has ever said it was an exclusive one. Without Activision, 2k simply doesn't have the funds to outbid EA and I doubt Activision is really interested in reviving a long dead football department anyways.
EA will be able to negotiate the next deal for a fraction of what they have been paying. The NFL and gamers maybe banking on new consoles to keep leverage on EA, but no one knows when these new consoles will actually be made, both companies deny any type of new console even in the planning stages yet. Then, even when they are created EA may just port the latest Madden over to the new consoles and get a huge jump on a potential competitor.
As for the millions saved this year, that won't be going into development cost for madden 12, it will be pocketed for investors. EA has been laying off people and cutting corners where ever it can. They aren't going to pour additional money into this game right now, even if they have it.
EA will be able to negotiate the next deal for a fraction of what they have been paying. The NFL and gamers maybe banking on new consoles to keep leverage on EA, but no one knows when these new consoles will actually be made, both companies deny any type of new console even in the planning stages yet. Then, even when they are created EA may just port the latest Madden over to the new consoles and get a huge jump on a potential competitor.
As for the millions saved this year, that won't be going into development cost for madden 12, it will be pocketed for investors. EA has been laying off people and cutting corners where ever it can. They aren't going to pour additional money into this game right now, even if they have it.
The thing is, the lack of a license isn't why games like Backbreaker and 2k8 haven't sold well. It's certainly a factor, but it's not the only factor. 2k8 lacked much in the way of customization, despite what they claimed. Added to that, the legends gimmick didn't work at all, and the lack of a franchise mode really didn't help.
Backbreaker had much better customization, but lacked a lot in the way of "real football", Yeah, the physics was good, but that can only go so far. Especially when you consider the "arcade-y" nature of the player models, the vanilla playbook, AI which wasn't great and a rather divisive camera. Bacbreaker was a good start, but it remains to be seen if we'll get a BB2 (I think we will, but not soon).
As I've said before (quite often, actually) I see no reason at all why an unlicensed game can't sell well enough to be released every year. It just has to be done in the right way. Of course there are any number of opinions about what that way should be. My opinion is that as long as you have a game which plays as well or better than Madden, and allows you to recreate the NFL (maybe even if not online) it will do well enough to survive.
Ideally for me personally such a game would go further than letting you recreate the NFL, but I appreciate that: 1) that isn't everyone's opinion, 2) it would likely make the game take a long time to develop and 3) the more complex a game the harder it is to debug effectively.
Backbreaker had much better customization, but lacked a lot in the way of "real football", Yeah, the physics was good, but that can only go so far. Especially when you consider the "arcade-y" nature of the player models, the vanilla playbook, AI which wasn't great and a rather divisive camera. Bacbreaker was a good start, but it remains to be seen if we'll get a BB2 (I think we will, but not soon).
As I've said before (quite often, actually) I see no reason at all why an unlicensed game can't sell well enough to be released every year. It just has to be done in the right way. Of course there are any number of opinions about what that way should be. My opinion is that as long as you have a game which plays as well or better than Madden, and allows you to recreate the NFL (maybe even if not online) it will do well enough to survive.
Ideally for me personally such a game would go further than letting you recreate the NFL, but I appreciate that: 1) that isn't everyone's opinion, 2) it would likely make the game take a long time to develop and 3) the more complex a game the harder it is to debug effectively.
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Some of you apparently think that EA will make the same amount even if there's no labor deal and there's no NFL season, you are missing the point in the concession that was made on this years fees.
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This deal is simply lockout insurance for EA. The ROI threshold is lower if licensing fees are lower for this season. The NFL then gets the added benefit of the deal for another year, rather than renegotiating it coming off of a year that no football was played.
If there is a NFL season (man, there better be) then it's gravy for EA. By the time that's figured out, there won't be time (even if a deal was cut today this is probably true) to suddenly pump millions more into Madden 12.
# 15
pietasterp @ 02/20/11 09:57 PM
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Conceptually, though, I think game companies are moving away from licensed products and trying to create their own IP's so that they can keep all of the cake and not have to share. There are few sports games that generate enough revenue for their development/marketing and the costs associated with the license (exclusive or not) to be worth it, and I'd say that short list is probably NFL and maybe NBA and FIFA (only because that's the worldwide version of the NFL license). T2 cannot wait for the MLB exclusive license to end fast enough, and they clearly have been disappointed by the revenue streams generated by that deal (which never made sense to me in the first place, given that it had a huge gaping hole for 1st-party development...in essense, they paid for exclusivity and didn't even get an exclusive license).
Given the huge amounts of money it would take to get a development team together and start a new football franchise from scratch, which everyone except EA would have to do at this point, and without the pop culture cache that the name "Madden" has to guarantee a certain number of sales (the significant percentage of people who buy that game every year because that's just what they do...), the sums of money the NFL would expect for exclusivity would likely be prohibitive to any other company. In addition, it would likely take at least a few years, even if the hypothetical new non-Madden NFL game were mind-bogglingly awesome, to develop and audience just because they don't have that Madden name on the box (unfortunately, our OS fiefdom doesn't amount to a hill of beans in the overall game industry numbers...). That leaves just EA as a serious bidder for the license, and at that point they are telling the NFL how much they are willing to pay, not vice versa. We are already seeing evidence of who wears the pants in this arrangement with this latest announcement, which is the closest thing to genuflecting that the NFL ever does with any of its licensing partners.
At this point, even if the NFL offered the exclusive license to another non-EA company at half the price of what the EA deal is worth, I'm still not sure it would make sense for another company to bite. If I were an investor in Activision or T2 or Disney or whoever, I would certainly not be thrilled to see them bid on the license; no matter the quality of the game, if it doesn't say "Madden" on the box it's automatically at a severe disadvantage. That's the evil empire EA and Madden have become.
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It's also riskier to innovate if:
a) It's not received well by the public. You can go back to the cone passing on that one or weapons.
b) The innovation isn't integrated properly with the game.
# 17
Nab_Impervious_XII @ 02/20/11 10:48 PM
I think a lot of people are really over-exaggerating the disadvantage that new football IPs will experience. Sure, Madden has been researching simulation football for 5 more years than its competitors, but it's actual additions (Lead-Tackle, Cone-Passing, Gameflow, Pro-Tak, etc.) certainly haven't been indicative of 5+ years of research development. There was a lot of fluff and slow advancement within that span. If 2k discovers some kind of new technology by 2013 (like an intelligent way to merge their tackle technology with elements of Europhoria), they can make up the technology gap in an instant. Updating all the uniforms and stadiums will take about 1 year though. But if the essence of the game is ground-breaking, it's a sacrifice that can be legitimately made.
I mean, don't get me wrong. EA certainly has the advantage so far. But there's plenty of room for game-changing situations to arise.
I mean, don't get me wrong. EA certainly has the advantage so far. But there's plenty of room for game-changing situations to arise.
The biggest problem is everything they put in a game is later removed instead of improved
Cone= gone
weapons= gone
truckstick= kindda gone
playmaker= gone
and it still lacks features last gen has (and wii)
which are
the minigames/training like pocket passer and that stuff which is really cool that is why I bought madden 11 for Wii instead of PS3 or 360
Cone= gone
weapons= gone
truckstick= kindda gone
playmaker= gone
and it still lacks features last gen has (and wii)
which are
the minigames/training like pocket passer and that stuff which is really cool that is why I bought madden 11 for Wii instead of PS3 or 360
# 19
pietasterp @ 02/21/11 12:06 AM
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What I mean when I say developing a new football IP would take an incredible amount of investment is that everything, from building the game from scratch to marketing it to the public, would be an uphill battle since to the general public, football videogame = Madden. I think we keep forgetting that we're pretty much the only ones that pay attention to a football game being good; the other 99% of Madden buyers are doing it because that's what people do. And frankly, even the hyper-critical OS crowd all buy the darn game anyway. If all people cared about was the quality of the game, Madden 05 would not have outsold NFL2K5 by such a ridiculous margin (regardless of what you think of either game, I don't think it can be reasonably argued that one title was 5x better or whatever than the other one). But marketing and hype are king, thus the Madden phenomenon.
# 20
dickey1331 @ 02/21/11 01:57 AM
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