Madden 12 News Post

Analysis: What Happens to Madden if There is a Lockout?

09:44 PM - February 8, 2011 by RaychelSnr

Gamasutra posted a good analysis of what the NFL Lockout might mean for Madden NFL 12. I'm going to provide my own thoughts and notes while selectively quoting parts of the Gamasutra article.

Quote:


	"Electronic Arts will release its 2012 installment of the Madden franchise this year as it has each year since 1988 � but it might be doing so without the marketing force of the league behind it for the first time in the game�s history. And that has everyone from analysts to EA execs planning for the worst."

This is indeed a big problem. The NFL is a powerful force right now, just look at the ratings for this year's Super Bowl, which happened to be the most watched television program in American history! But what is true today may not be true tomorrow, and if the negotiations were to go so bad that an entire season was canceled? You'd be naiive to think the league's popularity won't take a hit initially.

Quote:


	"But should there be a lockout that lasts any substantial length of time, analysts expect the numbers to take a big hit. Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities says he expects sales of Madden will be down 50 percent if the season is canceled completely, but will see no negative effects if the season starts within two or three weeks of its normal start time."

EA's forecast included a toned down forecast for what we'd conventionally think as Q3 and Q4 of 2011 for this very reason. Madden sales will be down significantly if the 2011 season doesn't happen -- which may be good news for those looking for a possible way EA doesn't go after an exclusive license again.

We'll be taking a wait and see on this to see what happens with the negotiations between the players and owners, as will a lot of people at Tiburon Studios in Orlando.

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Member Comments

# 1 videlsports @ 02/08/11 11:07 PM

hmmm. A lockout soo the exclusive liscence will not renew... as much as I would like for this to be true.. I cannot give up watching the real thing for the sake of my video games. 2k sports have other options for at least 1 more year. I 'm a supporter for 2k to make college football to prepare for the NFL.

# 2 mac8204 @ 02/08/11 11:17 PM

I think that Madden may actually sell more if we miss out on the actual NFL season. I know that I will definitely be itching to see some football and Madden will be my go to game. This could be a great season for innovation in Madden. They could even push back the release date since they won't be rushed by the actual season and have time to add more new features. I think that the Madden franchise can use this as an opportunity to finally make a huge leap that we've all been waiting for for so long.

# 3 khaliib @ 02/09/11 12:42 AM

If there is a lockout, players are no longer under the umbrella of the NFL as the employer. When this happens EA will have to negotiate with players for the rights to have them in the game. EA currently can use them under the NFL Product name, but if/when there is a lockout, NFL players, onlike college can/will seek payment for using their likeness, especially guys in the lower contract range.

You can bet their agents will try and get money for their clients from any source available.
That includes EA to us their clients likeness during a lockout.

Take away the NFL Brand and we will see how people really view the game.
That's scary especially since unlike Backbreaker, they limit customization greatly.

Maybe that's why Ian asked the community what they thought about Total Customization.

I would like the Brand to be striped away, that way gameplay/franchise will have to be top priority.

# 4 taqiyya @ 02/09/11 10:31 AM

That would be interesting to see. EA to make a game without the real players??? I think personally it would hurt them. Would they charge 60 bucks for a generic game? If so how many would actually buy it?

If it does happen how much will the value of a back breaker game go up? You know that they will be a cheaper buy compared to a EA game with no rights.

Me personally I would use this year and try out a back breaker game because it is something different,and I could make my team as close as possible. I hope there is not a lockout because I love my NFL football. If there is a lockout then I am curious as well about the gaming football situation.

# 5 jyoung @ 02/09/11 02:01 PM

According to vgchartz, NBA Live's PS1 sales dropped 22% during the most-recent NBA lockout:

Quote:


	NBA Live 98 - 1.40 million (year before lockout) NBA Live 99 - 1.09 million (year of lockout)

I looked for the sales of NHL games during the 2004-2005 lockout, but didn't find anything.

I think we will see somewhere around a 10% - 20% drop in sales with Madden if a NFL lockout cuts into the regular season.

# 6 taqiyya @ 02/09/11 02:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cre8


	Is it possible that they would do something like they did for NBA Live 10? Just release some sort of roster update or something? I know what some cynical people might say to that, but it seems like a fiscally smart thing to consider if there isn't a season. Maybe just make a very large game update to download with new/improved features for 1600 MS Points ($20)?..

If they did the roster update route I would think that is still breaking the rules, no NFL would mean no creating something new or updated with NFL property. NBA Live was able to do it because there was not a NBA lockout. I think they did that so they could at least update a good game with new players instead of releasing that crap elite game.

Thats my opinion anyways..

# 7 RaychelSnr @ 02/09/11 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by khaliib


	If there is a lockout, players are no longer under the umbrella of the NFL as the employer. When this happens EA will have to negotiate with players for the rights to have them in the game. EA currently can use them under the NFL Product name, but if/when there is a lockout, NFL players, onlike college can/will seek payment for using their likeness, especially guys in the lower contract range. You can bet their agents will try and get money for their clients from any source available. That includes EA to us their clients likeness during a lockout. Take away the NFL Brand and we will see how people really view the game. That's scary especially since unlike Backbreaker, they limit customization greatly. Maybe that's why Ian asked the community what they thought about Total Customization. I would like the Brand to be striped away, that way gameplay/franchise will have to be top priority.

EA has a signed agreement with the NFLPA through this year at least, so real players and teams will be in the game regardless of a lockout.

# 8 Dazraz @ 02/09/11 04:08 PM

A prediction of a 50% drop in sales in the face of a full season cancellation seems like a figure pulled out of thin air. People who want a NFL game will buy Madden irrespective of the status of the actual season. I'm not saying that there won't any impact on sales but these impacts can be countered by releasing a game with substantial improvements & not a 'through the motions' yearly release.

# 9 over9000yards @ 02/09/11 07:22 PM

If there is a lock-out, the cover of Madden will be blank.

# 10 khaliib @ 02/09/11 09:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MMChrisS


	EA has a signed agreement with the NFLPA through this year at least, so real players and teams will be in the game regardless of a lockout.

One thing I've learned in Sports Law class, is that no agreement is 100% fulfilled, especially in the last year.
Especially with major Sports Brands and/or it's Players. Contracts are voided many times with these two entities.

Team Logo's/Namesake are under the unbrella of the NFL (Owners). If there is a lockout, NFLPA can't use those Logo's/Namesake to make profit., even if there is/was an agreement.

From what I've heard, if there is a lockout, you can't take Players and tie them to an Owner's Brand (Team) and/or vise-versa and profit from the combination of the two as a whole when they no longer exist as one.

The main argument is how much of a cut each entitiy should get from profits from the combined brands as a whole. This would include any and all external agreements that sell both as one.

I've been told that when Owners and Players at the pro level reach this point, things get real nasty and selfish.
Meaning each does not want the other to profit in any way by utilizing their brand.

We shall see how it plays out.

# 11 taqiyya @ 02/09/11 09:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by khaliib


	One thing I've learned in Sports Law class, is that no agreement is 100% fulfilled, especially in the last year. Especially with major Sports Brands and/or it's Players. Contracts are voided many times with these two entities. Team Logo's/Namesake are under the unbrella of the NFL (Owners). If there is a lockout, NFLPA can't use those Logo's/Namesake to make profit., even if there is/was an agreement. From what I've heard, if there is a lockout, you can't take Players and tie them to an Owner's Brand (Team) and/or vise-versa and profit from the combination of the two as a whole when they no longer exist as one. The main argument is how much of a cut each entitiy should get from profits from the combined brands as a whole. This would include any and all external agreements that sell both as one. I've been told that when Owners and Players at the pro level reach this point, things get real nasty and selfish. Meaning each does not want the other to profit in any way by utilizing their brand. We shall see how it plays out.

Ahh OK... I understand a little more clear now. Thank you for that info and I hope all this comes to a close soon. It's crazy how a sport can get so ugly off the field. Greed ruins so many things.

# 12 acreyman @ 02/10/11 03:16 AM

Not sure how this is a bad thing for the consumer really....there is still Madden 11 to keep people's thirst for NFL Football quenched, and the developers can focus on improving Madden 13 all year intead of focusing on patching 12 and doing tuner sets.............very bad for the developer in terms of $$$ though. One thing we do know for sure........NCAA 12 is gonna be there! Maybe a record year for that game if a lockout prevents Madden from hitting the shelves? I think so. I think EA will take a hit but increased sales in NCAA will help some. Sucks though, I was looking forward to the improved franchise mode and skipped Madden 11 this year. NCAA has been great but the NFL itch is starting to get to me.

# 13 Step2001 @ 02/10/11 05:43 AM

Just add a deep franchise mode that can be played offline and online and the game will sell very well.

# 14 Cryolemon @ 02/10/11 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by shigogouhou


	What happens to the rosters if the NFLPA disbands to file anti-trust vs the NFL?

That's a good question.

Quote:

Originally Posted by MMChrisS


	EA has a signed agreement with the NFLPA through this year at least, so real players and teams will be in the game regardless of a lockout.

That's fine unless the NFLPA disbands.

# 15 bh446066 @ 02/10/11 03:37 PM

Actually, if they lost the ability to give us real rosters, that would be fine with me. Just give me a bunch of generics with ability to fully edit them and that would be even better! Well, for me, anyway (I like historic rosters).

# 16 mirrored32 @ 02/11/11 01:47 AM

if madden was to be without the actual players, i could care less! as long as we get complete customization back! we could make our own rosters. the fact is most people complain of the rosters being this or that anyway.

Historic Rosters could finally come back! heck, Historic Teams!

besides i would love to see madden 12 be complete customization without players and if they do eventually get an agreement then send a roster update.

# 17 Spongedaddy @ 02/12/11 09:02 AM

IMO I don't think the NFL or NFLPA will mess with Madden if there is no season. Having no season is bad press....why would they want to add more fuel to the fire.

As far as Madden sales go...well at launch you will have the same percentage of people who will buy the game no matter what. Then you have your consumers that are swayed by marketing. Some of them will be swayed by the lack of a season and a desire to have some kind of football in their life. The lack of an official NFL push may hurt the sales a little bit, but I highly doubt it will make a significant dent.

# 18 JMD @ 02/13/11 10:17 AM

On this weeks episode of Game Trailers TV, Peter Moore was asked this very question and he said there will be a Madden 12 no matter what happens in the NFL.

# 19 ABR173rd @ 02/13/11 10:45 AM

I would have to believe Madden will still do pretty decent, factoring in the improvements we hope to see in franchise mode and maybe the lack of the NFL season this will be one of the few ways the NFL can still market itself through out the year if there is indeed a lockout.

# 20 benweird @ 02/13/11 11:24 AM

Or they could just delay the release until the lockout is over and use the extra time to make a good game. I'd rather wait for a good game than get an average game in August.

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Analysis: What Happens to Madden if There is a Lockout?