MLB's Best Have Discovered Winning Formula: Runs Allowed - jmik58's Blog

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MLB's Best Have Discovered Winning Formula: Runs Allowed Stuck

Posted on August 8, 2012 at 10:43 AM.

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Forget the bogus run-differential fad among baseball statisticians. Where you should really be paying attention is the "RA" column of the standings.

No, I'm not talking about your resident adviser -- I'm referring to the often overlooked and simple statistic of Runs Allowed.

I know, I know, in the land of Sabermetrics how can such an elementary figure tell us anything?

While it might not be the cure-all statistic for what ails your baseball prediction addiction (say that three times fast) it has still managed to be a telling category when compared to runs scored over the past few seasons -- including 2012.

Before going too far into Runs Allowed, and to make sure I stop short of anointing it the holiest of right-under-your-nose figures, let's put a little perspective into the equation.

First off, I'm only comparing two different figures: runs allowed and runs scored. Defense or offense. Heads or tails. Keep in mind also that defense and pitching don't always run the show. Sometimes the best teams are those with great offenses while pitching and defense aren't as dominant.

When evaluating the numbers there is a clear ebb and flow but it appears (at least over the past five years) the more important side of the equation has been pitching and defense -- when looking at division winners.

This may have two implications. In the short term we can look at the current season. What are division leaders and contenders relying on? And in the long term, should teams be focusing more on offense or defense to build up their clubs for future runs at playoff-capable clubs?

Going back five years I compared the league rank (American and National separately) of each division winner in the categories of Runs Scored and Runs Allowed, also considering what the average was over that entire period of time.

In 2007, the average rank of division winners was 4.67 in regard to RA; for RS it was 5.83. Therefore, I'll conclude that pitching and defense was more important for that season for eventual division champions, albeit slightly.

The same was true in 2008 when the average rank of division winners for RA was 3.33 -- the best mark of the past five seasons. Runs Scored, however, came in with an average ranking of 6.67 among division champions -- a huge gap by comparison.

In 2010 and so far in 2012 we're witnessing the same trend. Division winners in '10 and leaders thus far in '12 ranked/are ranking higher in Runs Allowed than they are in Runs Scored.

Conversely, the years of 2009 and 2011 saw offense as a more powerful correlation for division winners in comparison to RA. In '09, division winners ranked in at an average of 3.17 (the best mark of the past five years) while only averaging a placement of 5.67 when it came to Runs Allowed. In '11 it was an average rank of 4.17 for RS and 5.17 in RA. Sometimes offense does carry the best teams; but not quite as often as the opposite scenario.

The simple conclusion when seeing three of the last five seasons lean more towards defensive dominance (with this year looking to follow that trend) is to conclude that pitching and defense are more important when aiming for division titles. Three of the last five years (four out of six if you include 2012 to this point) have been seen division winners/leaders associated with higher rankings in Runs Allowed than that of Runs Scored.

In fact, averaging out the years of 2007 through 2011, teams ranked in around 4.5 for RA and 4.77 for RS. While the comparison looks closer over that period of time, it's better to look at the figures on a season-by-season basis.

This is also key considering that each year of Major League Baseball presents it's own unique story. Also, many believe that the season can be split into three sections. The first is an attempt to see what you have as a team, the second is doing your best to make the team what you want it to be, and the final part of the year is making it happen with what you've developed.

The trade deadline has passed and teams have addressed their specific needs leaving with us with a chance to look at where each team is headed. More importantly, teams and fans alike realize this part of the year is crucial in evaluating the chances of contenders in 2012 -- based on the results of the past five years and the trend so far this year, it appears pitching and defense should be the focus, more specifically Runs Allowed.

So what does it mean for the rest of 2012 season and who are the teams to keep an eye on?

In the American League, Oakland has the best RA as they sit in third place of the AL West. Tampa Bay, like the Athletics, rest in third of their respective division and lead the AL East in RA. Each team resembles the type of squads that have the ability to hang around and surprise the league when the last day of the season sneaks around.

In the National League, it's the performance of teams already at the top that makes a strong statement. Washington (NL East) and Cincinnati (NL Central) are tops in the NL in regard to Runs Allowed. Likewise, teams such as Pittsburgh and Los Angeles look to have the pitching and defensive power to keep their squads in contention through September as well. St. Louis and Atlanta, however are offense-heavy and show signs of weakness when it comes to keeping opponents off the scoreboard -- not a good recipe for a division title in 2012.

Current Division Leaders -- Runs Allowed Rank -- Runs Scored Rank

NY Yankees (3rd RA in AL -- 3rd RS in AL)
Chicago (AL) (5th RA in AL -- 5th RS in AL)
Texas Rangers (7th RA in AL -- 1st RS in AL)
Washington (1st RA in NL -- 7th RS in NL)
Cincinnati (2nd RA in NL -- 8th RS in NL)
San Francisco (6th RA in NL -- 9th RS in NL)
Runs Allowed average rank (4th)
Runs Scored average rank (5.5)

Make your predictions now with the statistical evidence thrown at you: Who will be the winner of each MLB division in 2012? Will the leaders hold serve until the end or are there surprises waiting in the wings for us?

Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. You can follow him on Twitter @long_snapper.

Comments

# 1 TheLetterZ @ Aug 8

Allowing less runs is good?

Wow, shocking!

Seriously?

"Three of the last five years (four out of six if you include 2012 to this point) have been seen division winners/leaders associated with higher rankings in Runs Allowed than that of Runs Scored."

Three out of five is statistically significant enough to draw a conclusion from?

Do I really have to go on about how ridiculous that is?

# 2 jmik58 @ Aug 8

@TheLetterZ It's not about allowing less runs, period. The article is pointing out that runs allowed (defense) is more important than runs scored (offense). Which can you get by with: a weak offense or defense? Over the past five years (and this year so far) a strong defense is more important than a strong offense.

And as far as "statistically significant enough," I'm not sure what that means. Something is either statstically significant or it isn't. When two possible outcomes exist, 60% is sufficient. 2012 looks to continue the trend meaning a potential 4 out of 6 (67%).

# 3 TheLetterZ @ Aug 8

Yes, "enough" was redundant. You're right.

60% would be significant if the sample size was more than five.

Additionally, averaging the rankings as you did is misleading.

For example, you claimed that 2010 was a year in which pitching and defense were more important than run scoring, based on the rankings you did.

But look at the leaderboard in 2010.

Of the top seven highest scoring teams, five of them won their division. And the two who didn't, the Red Sox and Yankees, won 95 and 89 games, respectively.

The Giants, who did indeed make the playoffs largely behind their pitching, skewed your rankings because they finished 17th in scoring runs.

Let's look at the runs allowed leaderboard for that same year.

Only ONE division winner finished in the top six in fewest runs allowed. Two of the teams in the top six, the Athletics and Mets, didn't even finish about .500. The other five division winners all finished consecutively 7-11 in that list.

To me, those leaderboards are A LOT more telling than your calculated rankings that are skewed by one outlier.

And if you count 2010 as a "run scoring" year, all of a sudden your sample size of five years weighs in favor of run scoring, negating your entire article.

# 4 jmik58 @ Aug 8

@TheLetterZ I didn't rank the entire league together. I separated the AL and NL as I don't believe it's fair to compare the statistics of either league considering the DH.

Also, you're inclusion of teams that "still made the playoffs" is a fair statement, but that had nothing to do with my article. My focus is on division winners, especially considering how important it is to win the division with the addition of a second wild card team.

I also see where using the term "statistically significant" was a reach, but conceptually I still see a trend and, in my opinion, that trend shows something significant.

Finally, I do agree that the leaderboards tell the story well. I pointed out the importance of seeing each season as it's own story which does two things. It keeps skewed figures from destroying averages and also keeps us focused on what the immediate history tells us regardless of what the long-term information shows.

Thanks for reading and for the solid comments.

# 5 CuseGirl @ Aug 9

Baseball has a lot more to do with "when" than "how much" or "how little". Giants couldn't score all year, had great pitching, go to the playoffs and suddenly, they're hitting and winning a title. Every year, we hear about how the Yankees pitching is garbage, yet their in the hunt all the way until the end. When they last won a title, it's not because the pitching was superb, it was good but not other worldly. They won because Matsui brought his A-game to the plate. Same with the Cards last year. They won because of scoring.