NCAA Football: Five Best; Experienced Teams in 2012 - jmik58's Blog

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NCAA Football: Five Best; Experienced Teams in 2012 Stuck

Posted on July 31, 2012 at 11:57 AM.

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It certainly takes talent to win championships, but talent can only take you so far.

I've detailed my choice for the nation's five most talented offenses, defenses, and overall teams. Now it's time to take a look at my picks for the programs I feel will have the most success this year due to strength of experience.

To come up with a rating I took into account a few aspects. First, I calculated the percentage of returning starters in each position group combined with extra emphasis for quarterbacks, offensive/defensive linemen, and secondary -- a preference I developed out of personal opinions and some minor research. I then look at how teams have performed in recent years with varying numbers of returning starters and compare that to what would have been expected.

For example, Oklahoma State returned few starters in 2010, yet they had a big year in the win column -- this helped to predict their 2011 success considering they had even more talent and experience back that year.

In short, some teams can win despite a lack of experience while others may follow the average or underperform. The challenge is finding out what teams fall into each mold.

Looking back on 2011, my top five in the experience category were SMU (8-5), Texas A&M (7-6), Notre Dame (8-5), UCLA (6-8), and Michigan (11-2). While experience -- like talent -- didn't prove to be a significant push by itself, a nod towards a winning record was almost a guaranteed.

As a side note, I eventually incorporate my talent and experience numbers to come up with my win-prediction model. This constitutes the large majority of how I rank my teams and predict my national champion. In 2011, my top five teams based on this were Alabama (12-1), Oklahoma (10-3), Oklahoma State (12-1), LSU (13-1), and Boise State (12-1).

As you can see, the top-five didn't let me down anywhere. In fact, I was extremely shocked to see Oklahoma State pop up so high, but was pleasantly surprised to see the prediction come true as the Cowboys finished in the top three at season's end (perhaps it shouldn't have been a surprise based on what 2010 showed).

So to sum things up, my experience ratings on their own do a decent job to show average or below-average teams that should be able to push through for a winning record at the least -- while solidifying the ability of groups with talent as title contenders. Conversely, my ratings that throw in talent (along with other factors) go to greater lengths in an attempt to predict season wins and subsequently estimate the top overall teams in the land (I'll share those in a future article).

A quick look at my most-experienced list for 2012 makes it pretty clear that a slightly-above-five-hundred record -- like I saw in 2011 -- is aiming low. This year's top five is full of teams that either overachieved based on returning starters in 2011, or have just as many back if not a greater amount than they employed in a successful campaign.

1. Auburn Tigers

2011: 6 returning starters, 8 wins
2012: 15 returning starters
New starting QB
3/5 OL starters return
All DL starters returning
3/4 starters back in secondary

2. Georgia Bulldogs

2011: 7 returning starters, 10 wins
2012: 10 returning starters
Murray back at QB
2/5 OL starters return
All DL starters returning
3/4 starters back in secondary

3. Florida Gators

2011: 10 returning starters, 7 wins
2012: 17 returning starters
Brissett and Driskel are both solid options with experience
4/5 OL starters return
3/4 DL starters return
All starters return in secondary

4. Virginia Tech Hokies

2011: 12 returning starters, 11 wins
2012: 12 returning starters
Logan Thomas is back at QB
1/5 OL starters return
All DL starters return
50% of starters back in secondary

5. West Virginia Mountaineers

2011: 12 returning starters, 10 wins
2012: 14 returning starters
Geno Smith is back at QB
3/5 OL starters return
3/4 DL starters return
50% of starters back in secondary

Most of the teams with big-time experience also happen to be groups that bring back much in the way of talent as well. This is something I don't recall seeing in quite some time, and it may mean that we're in for one of the best collections of college football teams nationally that we've seen in years. In other words, the entire nation may take turns beating up on each other this season.

As good as the SEC has been and continues to be, 2012 may be the year where one or even two-loss teams are the standard at the top -- and don't be shocked if a two-loss SEC squad is in the conversation when the end of November rolls around.

But to be there it appears talent or experience won't be enough to make a move this year. Skills are a plus, but leadership and key returners may be the common team among the nation's elite in 2012.

Check back tomorrow as I take a look at the opposite end of the spectrum for the least experienced teams, as well as a sneak peak at those who may be scrapping for wins all season long.

What do you think -- is talent or experience more important in college football?

Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. Follow him on Twitter @long_snapper.

Comments

# 1 THE YAMA @ Jul 31

I expect the Gators to have a really nice season this year.

# 2 HouseOfBalloons @ Jul 31

Gators shocked alot of people on D last year, we just couldn't put the ball in the endzone. With Boise State's former Offensive Coordinator now on board we should be solid on both sides of the ball. Go Gators.... and, as a side note... notice SEC go 1-2-3. Woo!

# 3 Blackout863 @ Jul 31

Returning players doesnt always correlate to wins. Look at the Miami Hurricanes. Auburn and UF both are gong to struggle mightily on Offense. They should have Above average defenses. Texas Should be on this list Them and UF are virtually the same team at this point. To call Brissett & Driskell are far from solid at this point as well. With a year under their belt you can say they are experienced. Neither was suppose to see alot of time so that helped in the long run.