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jmik58's Blog

MLB Panic Deadline Stuck

Posted on July 26, 2012 at 10:45 AM.

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The MLB trade deadline is fast approaching and teams in contention are looking to grab while those out of reach look to dump big-name assets in exchange for future building blocks.

As July 31 creeps closer, however, the toughest decision for MLB clubs isn't necessarily who to deal for. Instead, teams have to decipher if they have a legitimate shot at contending for a division championship or wild card spot.

With the hope that the last five years might shed some brief historical light on what we could expect at season's end in 2012, I crunched a few numbers. More specifically, I looked back through the past five seasons and compared MLB standings through July 25 and that of the final regular season positioning for each season.

I chose to focus on winning percentage, wins, lead over second place, and any other significant numbers that popped. I wasn't sure what -- if anything -- I would find, but was intrigued with how the past five years gives a slight nudge to what we could expect between now and the end of the year.

Here are some of the interesting numbers going back to 2007:

Only 50% of teams leading the division on 7/25 went on to win the regular season title
Teams that held onto the lead to become division champions:
- Median winning percentage .586
  - Approximately 57 wins through 97 games.
- Win percentage range within one standard deviation was .569-.608
  - An approximate range of 55-59 wins
- Median division lead on second place was four games
- Division lead range within one standard deviation was between 1-7 games
Teams that lost the division lead by season's end:
- The median winning percentage .556
  - Approximately 54 wins through 97 games.
- Win percetage range within one standard deviation was .530-.582
  - An approximate range of 51-56 wins
- Median division lead on second place was two games
- Division lead range within one standard devition was between 1-3 games
No team lost more than a five-game division lead
- Atlanta lost division after leading by five games on 7/25/10

Naturally, the next step is to make sense of all the numbers. I narrowed what I deemed to be the significant info down to three main categories and one bonus factor to predict which teams can hold onto the division lead -- knowing that approximately 50% will not last.

Win percentage of at least .569
At least 56 wins
Leading second place by 3.5 games or more
BONUS: A five game or more lead over second place

Next, I answered each question for division leaders based on the standings as of 7/25/12.

In the AL East, the New York Yankees (.598, 58 wins, 7 game lead) meet all the criteria and the bonus one as well. They're as close to a sure-thing as you'll find this year for a team to maintain their division lead through the end of the season. The Yankees should be big-time buyers for the postseason if they see an area of weakness.

Detroit and Chicago (.536, 52 wins, 3 game lead) are stuck together atop the AL Central. Neither team meets the criteria that suggests a division crown. I would recommend both teams move cautiously before unloading prospects to grab a big name. I think one of these two will take the Central, but since only one can, each should move slow at the trade deadline considering the coin-flip chance they don't make the playoffs.

In the American League West, Texas (.594, 57 wins, 5 game lead) is sitting pretty. The Rangers nail every criteria except the bonus slot where they match the one-time collapse of the Braves from 2010. Texas should feel comfortable making a move, if they even deem it necessary. Be wary though, the Angels are on fire and moving fast.

The Washington Nationals (.594, 57 wins, 4.5 game lead) have a lot in common with the Texas Rangers as both share identical records and nearly the same lead over second place. Missing only on the bonus slot, it looks like this may be the year the Nationals finally take the NL East. With youth on their side they may not feel the urge to make a move, but the 'Nats shouldn't be shy about a trade as the playoffs look to be a serious possibility.

In the NL Central, Cincinnati (.588, 57 wins, 2.5 game lead) looks like a team that could slip before the end of the year if not for an unproven Pirates squad and an unpredictable bunch in St. Louis. Considering the 50% fail-rate, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Reds out of this spot at season's end. Cinci doesn't get the chance to go big for the playoffs too often so don't be surprised if they make a move, but the Reds shouldn't sell the farm if they act.

Finally, the Giants (.567, 55 wins, 2.5 game lead) have a slim lead in the NL West and may be tempted to posture for arms or other key pieces to try and run away with the division. While two-one-thousandths of a percentage point separate them from my threshold for winning percentage, those types of miniscule differences aren't enough to push them over the edge for postseason confidence. San Fran should hold off on making a move that might send youth for the future away in exchange for a playoff run that never happens.

My final verdict on who will and won't still be in first place at the conclusion of the 2012 season:

Who's in?
New York Yankees
Texas Rangers
Washington Nationals

Outside looking in?
Cincinnati
San Francisco

Coin Flip
Detroit/Chicago

Which of the current MLB leaders will win their respective division in 2012?

Justin Mikels is a staff writer for Operation Sports. Follow him on Twitter @long_snapper.

Comments

# 1 Gary Armida @ Jul 26

Excellent work Justin. Love the numbers. Agree on all except the Reds.

# 2 THE YAMA @ Jul 26

As a Rays fan, I know the late season magic we produce. Not counting my boys out.

# 3 jmik58 @ Jul 26

Thanks Gary. I personally predicted and still think Cinci will win the NL Central, but going by the numbers I forced myself to pick only 50% based on the last five year trend. As a Cardinals fan, however, I wouldn't be heart-broken if they fell