MLB: Tampa Bay's Moneyball Shift - jmik58's Blog

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MLB: Tampa Bay's Moneyball Shift Stuck

Posted on May 31, 2012 at 10:48 AM.

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The story of Moneyball has grown in popularity at the box office as the movie has shed light on some of baseball�s hidden secrets. While the real-life tale speaks to a change in focus to sabermetrics versus traditional statistics; the underlying storyline highlights a feel-good narrative of David over Goliath.

Moneyball documents the shift by Oakland Athletics general manager, Billy Beane, as he elevated the importance of statistics such as on-base percentage (OBP) over commonly-held numbers such as batting average. Beane felt the purpose of the batter is to reach base, something that was better evaluated by OBP. Batting average, conversely, was an antiquated statistic that could not take into account variables outside of the hitter�s skills.

Shortly after Beane took over as GM of the Athletics in 1997, the club went through a surge that saw the squad finish first or second in the American League West from 1999 to 2006 � among them, four division titles.

But the regular season success never carried over for Beane and the A�s. Oakland amassed five trips to postseason play during their run, but only once was able to move past the divisional round � losing to the Detroit Tigers in the 2006 ALCS.

While Oakland never reaped the major rewards of their innovative approach, others have stepped in to rework the system started by Beane and the A�s organization. Nearly every club has transitioned to a revamped method of player evaluation that utilizes sabermetrics. None, however, have reached the level of success achieved to this point by the Tampa Bay Rays.

The growth, perhaps, is due in large part to the marriage of philosophies between Tampa Bay brass and that of manager Joe Maddon. Maddon�s cerebral approach to the game has afforded personnel executives a green light to draft and seek out players with a versatile skill set that can be played to match any situation.

The Rays� small market hasn�t been a complete hindrance either, as many of the unconventional methods employed by the club and Maddon go unnoticed or unquestioned in the media. Such strategies would likely come with impatience and rash protesting in some of the major money markets around the league.

Since removing the �Devil� from the Tampa Bay mascot at the end of the 2007 season, the Rays have won the division twice (�08 and �10) and finished second and third in �09 and �11 respectively. The 2008 season culminated in the franchise�s first and only World Series appearance. A track record that a club with an average payroll of $60.21 million over that four-year stretch has no business achieving -- especially in a tough division like the AL East.

The Rays have built their success around a stingy pitching staff that ranks inside or near the top-ten in almost every major statistical category. The offense, much like Beane�s Athletics, is structured around a versatile crew of talented players who can man multiple positions and fill various roles up and down the lineup. The focus, naturally, is on-base percentage (OBP).

The Rays carry a current team batting average of .244, ranking in at a meager 21st in all of MLB. When needing to reach base, however, Tampa Bay is tied for seventh best in all of baseball with a .331 OBP. Not only are they getting on base at a successful clip, but their no-name roster of utility scrappers has tallied a top-ten performance in slugging percentage as well (.402) � resulting in 206 runs scored on the year (11th best in the MLB).

But a team with a top-ten pitching staff and offense all without a plethora of superstars; what sets them apart in the difficult AL East?

The answer might be on the defensive side. Or better yet, the defensive side to which the Rays shift.

No team in the MLB has utilized defensive shifts to the extent of the Rays. In 2011, BillJames.com documented that Tampa Bay deployed 216 defensive shifts over the course of the season. The Brewers came in at a distant second with 170 defensive shifts on the year.

More importantly, James claims that the Rays had the best defense in all of baseball, thanks in part to their penchant for the shift. Based on his numbers, Tampa Bay�s defense saved them 85 runs over the course of the year � enough to equate to approximately eight or nine wins on the season.

Factor in the runs saved by shifting, and Evan Longoria�s dramatic walk-off winner to make the postseason in 2011 is merely a small blip in the boxscore.

The way the Rays have built a winner to last, in a market too small to notice, is a story made for Hollywood.

But is anyone watching?

Are you a fan of Tampa Bay�s style? Or is it just another fad that will fade away?

Justin is a staff writer for Operation Sports. You can find him on the forums under the username jmik58. Follow him on Twitter @long_snapper.

Comments

# 1 OhCanadian @ May 31

Before the ignorant get on here and attempt to point out that Billy Beane hasn't won squat since are missing the point entirely. That season was the wakeup call for the big money teams to start applying Sabermetrics. The secret was out. There were no more sweet deals floating around. When OBP, BABIP and FIP start becoming priorites for most teams then the players formerly flying under the radar were no longer. It's that simple.

# 2 reduced price @ May 31

Believe me the primary reason and only reason for the Rays emergence are simply the fact that they were at the bottom of the division for years and therefore, they drafted high every year, which is much like what's happening in Washington. However, I will give most of the credit for Tampa's rise to them drafting the best players every single year. Sabermetrics is a mere tool just like the many, which are utilized in baseball to get an edge. It's not the be-all and the end all to anything. Sabermetrics is no magic formula. The reason Oakland came of age was there pitching staff, the starters they had back then. Add to that the fact that they had 5 to 6 key players all entering their prime together. The same is happening in Tampa now and since 08, as for the defensive shifts employed its highly overrated in baseball.