NBA 2K14: Finding a 3PT Rating Formula - iTofu's Blog

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NBA 2K14: Finding a 3PT Rating Formula

Posted on July 13, 2014 at 04:21 AM.

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This is a post in a series of blog posts describing the process of player modifications, ratings changes or signature skill changes that went into my PS4 NBA 2K14 Offseason Update Roster.

When trying to duplicate 2K's rating formulas for 3 point shooting, I thought the best method would be to disconnect my PS4 from the internet, then look at the original roster and see how that compared to the 2012-13 season.

Then I compared the ratings against all players who had over 100 mid range shots (2 points of 15 feet or more) and 100 3 point attempts under 29 feet. I used both mid range and 3 point at the same time, because I was finding both formulas at the same time.

Here is the results from graphing 3 point shooting ratings against 3 point shooting percentages from 2012-13.

After removing the only serious outlier of the 3 point graph, Mo Williams, who appeared to be roughly 7-8 points underrated. The formula I settled on was: 105.83 * 3PT% + 42.104

As I previously I only counted 3 point shots under 29 feet. If you count all three pointers, including heaves, the correlation is slightly stronger. That being said, Mo Williams is still a large outlier.

Since the correlation is tighter for all three point shots, it does seem like it'd be logical to use all three pointers given the goal was to duplicate 2K's 3PT formula. In addition, one could argue my method of removing long shots is an unfair advantage to players who love shooting 30+ foot bombs, such as Kobe Bryant, J.R. Smith and Steph Curry. That being said, even for great shooters suffer a significant drop off around 29 feet or longer and I feel that limiting the range creates an additional control resulting in more accurate ratings for gameplay and simulation.

Similar to my other ratings changes, I generally used 2 parts 2013-14 and 1 part 2012-13. I felt that was a good way to temper the results if this season or last season was an outlying year without weighting 2012-13 too much. In addition, if a player performs better in the playoffs, I added the playoff statistics. I say, generally, because I did make exceptions for players with unique situations, such as Derrick Rose.