[MLB MVP race] Please don't use these arguments - francium34's Blog

francium34's Blog

[MLB MVP race] Please don't use these arguments

Posted on September 20, 2012 at 01:03 AM.

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Can you feel it in the air (radio, TV and twitter chatter, etc)? MLB award talk is heating up again. With no clear-cut forerunners in the NL, and a clash of two ideologies in the AL, one could make a great fortune from the so many hats tossed into the ring (including me obviously)

I won't be arguing for specific candidates here, but just to point out a few weak arguments constantly heard that annoy me to no end (not to the extent of straggling kittens... yet).

1) RBI.
There is really no need to explain for the millionth time that RBIs are a product of both ability and opportunity. I used to joke that the reason Ryan Braun's RBI total is low was because Ricky Weeks never got on base in the first half of the season, and then hit too many home runs in the second. If you absolutely positively must stand by this sinking ship of stats, please at least include the number of at bats with RISP and success rate %, to avoid ridicule.

2) Player specific narrative
This mainly refers to comments along the line of "he was playing hurt" "before he heated up the team sucked", or attacking other contestants "his team underachieved". Please stop. If you follow every team closely enough, some interesting stories or tidbits are bound to pop up. As much as we tend to dramatize everything Hollywood-sports-movie-style, most of these arguments either bear very little importance (I don't care if the player is only a rookie, or playing injured for a month. Production is the only thing that matters.), or are impossible to validate (Pujols started hitting again just as Trout came up. So which was more important? Wait, did Trout re-invigorate Pujols? Or was is firing their hitting coach? Or the weather? Can Trout change the weather too?)

3) That one play/ game/ month......
We've seen quite a few variations on this theme. Like people grasping at one play to "prove" a player's ability. Or how one single game "seals" the race. Or in the past month, "when the games really matter", a player noticeably over/under performed. At the end of the season, doesn't every game count as W or L? Every player has hot and cold stretches. Producing and winning in April is no different from September. So McCutchen's numbers have slipped a bit this month, but that doesn't negate his monster performance a few months previous. And shouldn't the award come down to overall numbers through the entire year, instead of fixating on a biased smaller sample?

4) WAR is made-up.
Yeah, it kind of is. But the stat-geeks didn't do it just to spite old-school fans, you know. They merely found the traditional stats of AVG and RBI to be unsatisfactory for player evaluations. So avoiding outs is important. And base-running. Defense too. Sure, the formulas are always up for debate, like whether the "nerds" are over-valuing certain aspects. But the statistical analysis community has been hard at work with different perspectives. Check the 2 versions of Wins Above Replacement, and Win Probability Added, and much more. They differ somewhat, but usually not outrageously. Oh, while you're there, also take a look at the all-time leader boards. Babe Ruth, Cy Young, Bonds, yep, not that far off from conventional wisdom, right?

5) Team performance
Somehow in nearly every pro sport, only "contenders" deserve a strictly individual award like MVP or Cy. If anything, baseball is the most individual sport of all. Every play is essentially pitcher vs batter. How is it Braun's fault the Brewers' bullpen blew save after save? Should McCutchen be penalized for his teammates' inability to hit curveballs? Do we have to compare every other player on the Tigers and Angels to decide if Trout or Miggy was "carrying the team"?

It's been another great year for baseball, and baseball fans. Here's to more amazing games and performances in the upcoming month.