JTW's College Football BCS Rankings

[jasontoddwhitt]

We're four weeks into the season, and I thought this would be as good as time as any to bust out my Excel skills and start calculating the old BCS rankings.

I was always fond of the BCS, I just felt it was a horrible decision to use the rankings to just pick two teams.

I'll be calculating using the BCS formula as it was the final season it was used. I'll be using the AP Poll and the USA Today Coaches' Poll as well as the six computer rankings that were used (Sagarin, Massey, Billingsley, Colley, Wolfe, and Anderson).

(Note: Wolfe (October) and Anderson (site still has last year's rankings) are not releasing rankings till later in the season. So, I will be averaging the four available ratings. Once I get a fifth computer rating, I will be dropping a team's highest rating. Once all six are available, I will be dropping the highest and lowest rating).

Also, I'll be offering a what-if scenario in what if the NCAA expanded the college football playoff to something similar to the FCS. In other words, what would a 24-team field look. All ten FBS conferences will get automatic bids, leaving 14 at-large bids.

Without further ado, here is the first edition of the BCS Rankings.

NCAA Football Rankings - BCS Rankings - Updated: Sep 26, 2021
RK	LW	TEAM	W	L	POINTS
1	--	Alabama	4	0	.9889
2	--	Georgia	4	0	.9604
3	--	Oregon	4	0	.8110
4	--	Iowa	4	0	.7985
5	--	Oklahoma	4	0	.7835
6	--	Penn State	4	0	.7597
7	--	Notre Dame	4	0	.7316
8	--	Arkansas	4	0	.6470
9	--	Cincinnati	3	0	.6179
10	--	Ohio State	3	1	.6074
11	--	Florida	3	1	.5950
12	--	Michigan	4	0	.5172
13	--	Ole Miss	3	0	.4978
14	--	BYU	4	0	.4183
15	--	Texas A&M	3	1	.3959
16	--	Michigan State	4	0	.3779
17	--	Oklahoma State	4	0	.3442
18	--	Coastal Carolina	4	0	.3014
19	--	Clemson	2	2	.1795
20	--	UCLA	3	1	.1753
21	--	Texas	3	1	.1522
22	--	Fresno State	4	1	.1407
23	--	Baylor	4	0	.1376
24	--	Auburn	3	1	.1258
25	--	SMU	4	0	.1205

Next Five
26. Kentucky (.1090)
27. Maryland (.0917)
28. Wake Forest (.0883)
29. NC State (.0822)
30. LSU (.0725)

College Football Playoff


Computers Love (Greatest Difference Over Human Poll Average)
1. Oklahoma State (+.2788)
2. Michigan (+.2742)
3. SMU (+.2692)
4. Texas (+.2367)
5. LSU (+.1612)

Computers Hate (Greatest Difference Under Human Poll Average)
1. Cincinnati (-.3569)
2. Oregon (-.2865)
3. Coastal Carolina (-.2271)
4. Florida (-.2175)
5. Fresno State (-.2111)

[jasontoddwhitt]

Week 5 BCS Rankings

NCAA Football Rankings - BCS Rankings - Updated: Oct 3, 2021
RK	LW	TEAM	W	L	POINTS
1	2	Georgia	5	0	0.9723
2	1	Alabama	5	0	0.9710
3	4	Iowa	5	0	0.8835
4	6	Penn State	5	0	0.8257
5	9	Cincinnati	4	0	0.8224
6	5	Oklahoma	5	0	0.8215
7	12	Michigan	5	0	0.7072
8	10	Ohio State	4	1	0.6690
9	14	BYU	5	0	0.5415
10	17	Oklahoma State	5	0	0.5381
11	3	Oregon	4	1	0.5284
12	16	Michigan State	5	0	0.4901
13	7	Notre Dame	4	1	0.4835
14	8	Arkansas	4	1	0.4506
15	NR	Kentucky	5	0	0.4479
16	18	Coastal Carolina	5	0	0.3560
17	13	Ole Miss	3	1	0.3416
18	11	Florida	3	2	0.3156
19	21	Texas	4	1	0.2743
20	NR	Wake Forest	5	0	0.2491
21	24	Auburn	4	1	0.2447
22	19	Clemson	3	2	0.1464
23	25	SMU	5	0	0.1384
24	NR	NC State	4	1	0.1294
25	NR	Arizona State	4	1	0.1228

Next Five
26. Iowa State - 0.0789
27. San Diego State - 0.0583
27. Pittsburgh - 0.0583
29. UT-San Antonio - 0.0382
30. Wyoming - 0.0367

Dropped Out
15. Texas A&M (Now #34)
20. UCLA (Now #36)
22. Fresno State (Now #44)
23. Baylor (Now #38)

College Football Playoff


Computers Love (Greatest Difference Over Human Poll Average)
Texas (+0.2935)
Iowa State (+0.2117)
Florida (+0.1866)
Oklahoma State (+0.1528)
SMU (+0.1524)

Computers Hate (Greatest Difference Under Human Poll Average)
Oregon (-0.3725)
Coastal Carolina (-0.2489)
BYU (-0.2272)
Michigan State (-0.1951)
Ole Miss (-0.1374)

[jasontoddwhitt]

Week 6 BCS Standings

NCAA Football Rankings - BCS Rankings - Updated: Oct 10, 2021
RK	LW	TEAM	W	L	POINTS
1	1	Georgia	6	0	0.9998
2	3	Iowa	6	0	0.9394
3	6	Oklahoma	6	0	0.8685
4	5	Cincinnati	5	0	0.8468
5	2	Alabama	5	1	0.8228
6	7	Michigan	6	0	0.7654
7	8	Ohio State	5	1	0.7494
8	4	Penn State	5	1	0.7239
9	15	Kentucky	6	0	0.5913
10	10	Oklahoma State	5	0	0.5852
11	12	Michigan State	6	0	0.5716
12	13	Notre Dame	5	1	0.5350
13	11	Oregon	4	1	0.4933
14	17	Ole Miss	4	1	0.4429
15	16	Coastal Carolina	6	0	0.3583
16	18	Florida	4	2	0.3368
17	20	Wake Forest	6	0	0.3221
18	14	Arkansas	4	2	0.2503
19	9	BYU	5	1	0.2474
20	NR	Texas A&M	4	2	0.2327
21	25	Arizona State	5	1	0.2157
22	23	SMU	6	0	0.1836
23	19	Texas	4	2	0.1584
24	24	NC State	4	1	0.1295
25	22	Clemson	3	2	0.0953
25	NR	Baylor	5	1	0.0953

Next Four
27. San Diego State (0.0898)
28. Auburn (0.0862)
29. Iowa State (0.0837)
30. Pittsburgh (0.0809)

Dropped Out of Top 25
#21 Auburn (Now #28)

College Football Playoff

*No MAC schools scored any points in the BCS spreadsheet this week. By average, Western Michigan is the highest rated MAC school in the four computer rankings)

Computers Love (Greatest Difference Over Human Average)
Texas - (+.3024)
Iowa State - (+.2345)
Pittsburgh - (+.2086)
Notre Dame - (+.1425)
Baylor - (+.1420)

Computers Hate (Greatest Difference Under Human Average)
Oregon - (-.4699)
Coastal Carolina - (-.2675)
Michigan State - (-.2274)
NC State (-.1643)
Cincinnati (-.1302)

[bigbob]

I love it.

The funny thing to me is how much we complained about the BCS and "needed" more of the human aspec.. when in reality, the BCS was pretty damn accurate.

Thanks for doing this.

Sent from my SM-N986U1 using Tapatalk

[jasontoddwhitt]

Quote: Originally Posted by bigbob

I love it. The funny thing to me is how much we complained about the BCS and "needed" more of the human aspec.. when in reality, the BCS was pretty damn accurate. Thanks for doing this. Sent from my SM-N986U1 using Tapatalk

Looking back, I don't necessarily think fans were angry at the BCS. We were angry that we wanted a playoff and they gave us a national title game. The BCS was an imperfect solution to the prior problem that we were never guaranteed a bowl matchup between #1 and #2.

I always argued for a four team playoff. Then the funny thing is we get it and now I want more.

Appreciate it.

[Tovarich]

Quote: Originally Posted by bigbob

I love it. The funny thing to me is how much we complained about the BCS and "needed" more of the human aspec.. when in reality, the BCS was pretty damn accurate. Thanks for doing this. Sent from my SM-N986U1 using Tapatalk

I can't help but find the irony in the small schools complaining that they were never included in a BCS championship when undefeated and no power team was...and with the committee, they are light years away from it so far. If Nebraska's kicker didn't put the kickoff out of bounds in the Big 12 Championship, Cincinnati would've played for one in the BCS era. If they are 13-0 and still get left out, then I think it's official that they're just plain banned from the playoff.

[Collegefbfan]

Man, pretty awesome. I do a computer poll myself. Sort of like the BCS with no human element in it. Just factors in winning percentage, opponents' winning percentage, and opponents' opponents' winning percentage. It is close to yours, but a little off also towards the bottom. It works out the more the season progresses.

[jasontoddwhitt]

Quote: Originally Posted by Collegefbfan

Man, pretty awesome. I do a computer poll myself. Sort of like the BCS with no human element in it. Just factors in winning percentage, opponents' winning percentage, and opponents' opponents' winning percentage. It is close to yours, but a little off also towards the bottom. It works out the more the season progresses.

Sounds like something similar to the college basketball RPI. I remember back in high school, I calculated the RPI for the local high school region for a prep website.

God I was such a nerd (still am lol).

Thanks for checking in.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk