The TrueSim Roster Project: MLB 21

[Cycloniac]

Welcome to year four of the TrueSim Franchise Roster Project! If you've used any of the last three versions of the roster, thank you. You made it one of the most popular rosters in the vault and we (Jeffzinn2004 and myself) are excited to continue bringing the most out of this fantastic game.

For the first time, this year's roster will be both cross-platform and multi-generation!

NOW AVAILABLE
TrueSim Franchise Roster v1
Sliders:
TrueSim v3 and TrueSim Playoffs v3 are for playing games, Simulation v2 and Simulation Playoffs are for simming
(User Name: Cycloniac24)

Donate: https://paypal.me/truesim?locale.x=en_US

Why Use This Roster?
By now, everyone knows how much Ridin's Full Minors brings to the game. We use that as our base every year. Ridin and his team don't touch MLB rosters. That's where we come in. We spend months before release conducting thorough research on more than 1000 MLB players and 500+ prospects. We use a data-driven method to re-rate each player, one by one.

We also refine ratings for all of the prospects included in Full Minors. They are usually inflated, ratings-wise or potential-wise, which makes long-term franchise play unbalanced and unrealistic.

This is all done to ensure franchise mode is fun beyond year one. If you want a deep, immersive franchise mode experience, along with rewarding gameplay, this is the roster for you.

What's Included
-Re-rates for over 1100 MLB players and more than 500 prospects, including MLB Pipeline 2020 Top 100 Prospects.
Each player is re-rated, one by one, completely from scratch. All players are rated based on the TrueSim Projection System (TPS). TPS uses a variety of common and advanced metrics to ensure every player’s strengths, weaknesses and tendencies are reflected in gameplay and in simulations

-Full pitch repetoires powered by Statcast

-Adjusted depth charts, position changes and secondary positions for franchise mode longevity

-Re-scaled potentials for long-term franchise play

-Slider sets for realistic gameplay and simulation, for both regular season and playoffs

The Ratings: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAoHIeEMGM2jp7...I8KZ9?e=rRBnui

Franchise Mode Setup Guide

Spoiler

I prefer to play franchise using 30 team control, using the two profile setup explained here:
https://forums.operationsports.com/f...m-control.html

Manual Injuries Guide
I have prepared this spreadsheet with estimated (or confirmed) lengths of time to injure each player, as well as an alternate method if you don't want to use manual injuries (more on that below):
https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAoHIeEMGM7GHb...7fnZ5?e=3yT6l7

If a player is bolded, this injury occured after opening day but within the first couple weeks of the season. I used these websites:
https://www.vegasinsider.com/mlb/injuries/
https://sportsdata.usatoday.com/baseball/mlb/injuries
https://www.calendar-12.com/days_between_dates
The game's injury durations are a bit restrictive

You can only injure in the following ranges:
Day to Day (1-5 days)
Unable to Play (35-70 days or 180-254 days)

As a result, I suggest manually injuring certain players a second time on June 10 (70 days from April 1). I added my suggested injury combinations to the above spreadsheet

E.g. Eloy Jimenez is projected to return 156 days from April 1, so I am using two 70 day injuries to get as close as I can. Certain players I can be more precise, like Chris Sale (70+42)

If you don't want to manually injure players, I added a column with which level to demote the players to on opening day. Only do this if you are not manually injuring players.

If you have Roster Moves set to Auto, these players will gradually return to the MLB, depending on level and injuries. Players in A have a chance to return late in the season. Players in AA could miss a few weeks or a couple of months.

This is how I setup my real franchise and I'm liking the results a bit better than manually injuring players.

I will be using Armor and Sword's sponsorship setup found here:
https://forums.operationsports.com/f...n-sliders.html

I suggest you change the trade frequency slider as follows:
April & May: 1
June 1st-July 15th: 3
July 15th-July 31st: Max
Rest of Season: 5
Offseason & Spring Training: 6

If you prefer to handle all trades:

Quote: Originally Posted by Cycloniac

Now into mid-June, trading season is underway. If you are doing manual trades, I suggest turning trades from manual to auto by around June 15th, then sim a few days so the trade block can populate, then switch it back to manual. In June, I will make one trade a week until July 13th. From July 13th, I will make one trade every other day until July 25th. On July 25th, I will make two trades every day until July 31st (deadline day). For teams that have decided to rebuild: I add two players to their trade block: 1. Their highest salaried player on a 1 year deal 2. Their oldest player on a one year deal; I try to choose the player who has atleast a 5M cap hit. I also uncheck all of the positions they are seeking. These teams are looking to sell, not add MLB-level talent. For teams that have decided to make the playoff push, I remove players 25 and older from their trade block For both the normal teams and the playoff push teams, I tick as many positions of need as possible. I consider a position of need to be one where they are ranked 15th or worse at the position. If they have a need at CP, I will tick RP too if possible, and vice versa. On deadline day, I will try to trade every player still on the block. Based this trade pattern on 2019's trading period: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/...2172d6w12w4zmi

For drafted players, I have created a ratings generator, which you can find here: https://1drv.ms/x/s!AghAoHIeEMGM32LD...6joPO?e=Qc1m7q

I personally do rounds 1-3, and don't re-rate prospects with D potentials.
Instructions
1. Take photos/screenshots of rounds 1-3 of the draft, including any supplemetal rounds.
2. By Spring Training of the following season, refer to your photos to find the drafted players.

There are two components to the calculator: the ratings generator and the age corrector.

3. Enter OVR and potential of the drafted player. This will give you the age the player should be.

4. Enter the player's position, hitting tendecy and handedness.

5. Update the player with the new ratings.

For pitchers, the same steps apply; enter the age and potential in the age calculator first, then make sure you update the age in-game. Once you've done that:
6. Enter the per 9 stat that is highest for the pitcher e.g. HR/9, K/9. Do not enter the number.

7. Enter the pitcher's role (SP, RP, CP)

8. Update the player with the new ratings that were generated.

I also turn waivers off for year one to minimize prospects being moved unnecesarily.

Sliders

Spoiler

HOF Difficulty
Classic Pitching or Pinpoint Pitching
Directional Hitting (or user preference)

If a setting isn't listed, it is user preference.


Contact: 6
Power: 4
Timing: 4
Foul Freq: 0
Solid Hits: 4
Starter Stamina: 7 (3 in playoffs)
Reliever Stamina: 1 (3 in playoffs)
Pitcher Control: 6
Pitcher Consistency: 3
Strike Freq: 6
Manager Hook: 3 (8 in playoffs)
Pickoff: 4
Fastball and Offspeed Pitch Speed: 10 (or user preference)
Fielding Errors Infield: 9
Fielding Errors Outfield: 6
Throwing Errors Infield: 9
Throwing Errors Outfield: 1
Fielder Run Speed: 5
Fielder Reaction: 1
Fielder Arm Strength Infield: 5
Fielder Arm Strength Outfield: 6
Baserunner Speed: 7
Baserunner Steal Ability: 8
Baserunner Steal Freq: 4
Wind: 7
Injury Freq: 8

Simulation Sliders
Injuries: 4
Starter Stamina: 6 (2 in playoffs)
Reliever Stamina: 1 (3 in playoffs)
Manager Hook: 1 (8 in playoffs)

Rating Process and Methodology

Spoiler

After the baseball season is over, the work begins. Every player is rated by handed using TPS. The ratings are reviewed for quality-control purposes and finalized. When possible, a three year baseline is used, with last season having the most weight (50:25:25 weighting). If less than three seasons of data are available, regression to the mean is applied.

Since last season was only 60 games, fielding calculations were weighted more towards the previous season where possible. If a player has played 162 career games or less and has played more than 1 MLB season, his career splits are used in 2/3 of the calculation.

For long term franchise play, the potential mix is adjusted to divide players into relevant tiers, based on current production and age.

Potential Mix for MLB Position Players
A (90-99) = 16%
B (80-89) = 34%
C (70-79) = 51%

Potential Mix for MLB Pitchers
A (90-99) = 18%
B (80-89) = 36%
C (70-79) = 46%

Hitting and Fielding
Hitting and Fielding
-Contact ratings are based on AVG

-Power ratings are based on ISO and HR%

-Vision ratings are based on K%

-Discipline ratings are based on BB%

-Durability ratings are based on the league average games played per MLB season (102 games) for all position players

-Speed (baserunning ability) is calculated based on a formula that takes into account home to first times, player position, stolen bases, XBHs, and GIDP rate. Statcast's jump metric is also taken into account for outfielders.

-Fielding ratings (arm accuracy, reaction and fielding ability) are position specific; catchers, infielders and outfielders are all rated differently.

-RDRS (Baseball Info Solutions Defensive Runs Saved Above Average) is factored into the calculations, which makes position specific adjustments. Statcast's OAA (Outs Above Average) is used for outfielders. Statcast's jump data drives the reaction ratings for outfielders.


Pitchers
-Per 9 ratings are based on the per 9 statistics.

-Stamina is based on innings/appearance

This year, pitch repetoires were built from the ground up using Statcast data via MLB Savant. Pitch types were influencd by relative horizontal and vertical break for each pitch, using the % vs average differentiator:
-Fastballs with more relative horizontal break than vertical break are Running Fastballs
-Sinkers with more relative vertical break than horizontal break remain Sinkers. If a pitcher's relative creer groundball percentage is >=5%, the Sinker stays a Sinker as well.
-Changeups with more relative horizontal break than vertical break are Circle Changeups.
-Curveballs (<80 mph) with more relative vertical break than horizontal break are 12-6 Curveballs
-Curveballs (<80 mph) with more relative horizontal brek than vertical break are Sweeping Curveballs.
-Curveballs (>80 mph) wih more relative vertical break than horizonal break are Knucklecurves
-Curveballs (>80 mph) with more relative horizontal break than vertical break are Slurves.

Prospects

For long term franchise play, the potential mix is adjusted to divide players into relevant tiers, based on current production and age.

Potential Mix for MLB Position Players
A (90-99) = 16%
B (80-89) = 34%
C (70-79) = 51%

Potential Mix for MLB Pitchers
A (90-99) = 18%
B (80-89) = 36%
C (70-79) = 46%

The potential system was first changed last year to improve long-term balance in franchise. The original methodology behind that is as follows:

Quote:

Minor league players and major league players potentials are rated differently. Pitchers and hitters are also on different potential scales. When a player reaches the majors, how much they were touted in the minors doesn't matter anymore. What matters is how well they produce. From the player's production, we can assess what their ceiling is. Prospect ratings and potentials were determined based on: -Age -Current Ability (2019 stats/most recent season) -Highest level of competition Hitters and pitchers progress a bit differently. Progression for hitters is more random/performance based than pitchers. For hitters, in order to get a good baseline, prospects from previous years were used as comparrisons. The goal was to look at players retroactively and see if TPS could accurately predict how good they would become. I looked at the 2017 Top 100 Prospects list, since we now have a reasonable idea of how those prospects turned out. This was helpful because every year, there are superstars on this list and there are busts. My goal was to follow a similar potential spread the MLB rosters have, where there are a few stars, some above average players, and everyday/bench guys. In designing the potential calculation method, I wanted to prioritize how advanced the hitter's approach was (walk%, whiff%) and how well they could actually hit. The best players in baseball have great plate discipline and limit strikeouts, with the occasional exception. However, they can all hit. Simply put, if a player can't hit, his ceiling is lower and vice versa. The quality of competition and age are then considered to avoid overrating a player's ceiling. One mistake many make in evaluating prospects in rosters is eering on the side of high potentials. When potentials are too high, franchise is unplayable beyond year 2 and there is no balance long-term. Wander Franco is the consensus #1 prospect in baseball right now. One may look at the reports and say oh, 99 potential for sure. I like Franco, but he has only played in A ball. For players in A, there is an additional potential adjustment. Instead of a 99, TPS gives Franco a 90, which is still superstar level, rather than hall-of-fame/pereniel MVP candidate level (i.e. Trout). If Franco had played against better competition with a similar performance (AA or AAA) then he would likely be a 99. For pitchers, it is more likely that a player will achieve his potential rating than hitters in MLBTS, regardless of performance. This was taken into account and a similar approach was taken to evaluate them. There are three ceilings for pitchers: 75: #4/#5 starter 80: #3/#2 starter 90: Potential Ace Their performance against level of competition and how deep they go into games determined their ceiling (potential rating).

While the method used to assign potentials to pitchers was not changed, the potentials for hitters were adjusted this year because franchise no longer uses morale to give ratings/OVR boosts or penalties to players. This means that the potentials do not need to be as rigid for hitters.

Based on Prospect Pipeline, our adjusted potential scale for hitting prospects looks like:
Potential-MLB Pipeline Overall Grade
99 - 75+
90 - 60+
85 - 55
80 - 50 or in team's top 10
75 (if in team's top 15) - 45
70 - 45
65 - 40

[The Kid 24]

Hell yes! Can’t wait!


Sent from my iPhone using Operation Sports

[Lavoyd]

Guys, I haven't even bought the new Show yet because it is useless to me until the TrueSim rosters and sliders are ready. I appreciate all of your hard work. Baseball is the best, The Show is where it's at, but you guys come in and save the whole thing. Thanks so much, I can't wait! 90%!! I'm buying it this weekend. Let's go!

[kb24sd]

[Cycloniac]

Quote: Originally Posted by kb24sd

We will be ready

[swenk16]

I. Can't. Wait!

It is impossible for me to express how much I appreciate the hard work you guys put into this project. Looking forward to starting my franchise now. Thank you, thank you, thank you!!!

[ViatorLion10]

Always happy to see you back in action C. The roster set I'm working on was inspired by your approach. You do a lot for the community.

[deamon93]

Great that you're back! Used your roster last year for the first time; so excited for this year's version.