META for 2k21: Mock offseason

[vetmin]

Posting this here since it's of most relevance to roster builders (hope this is OK...):

Considering the weird situation of the NBA schedule relative to 2k21, any of us who don't want to wait months to jump into MyLeague will have to fake the 2020 offseason (probably directly into a roster file, if starting in the offseason remains disabled), since the default roster of course has no rookies and has a bunch of bogus contracts.

I'm sure everybody's vision for the offseason will be a little different, but in the interest of realism I thought that perhaps we could all make our lives easier by crowdsourcing in this thread what we've read in terms of trade / free agent / draft rumors for the team(s) we follow. Let's keep it as neutral as possible (i.e., not your personal dream offseason for your team, but just what credible sources have been reporting / speculating).

I'll start:

Golden State Warriors

• GSW has #2 pick, a couple 2nd rounders, $17.2mil Iguodala trade exception, taxpayer MLE, and vet min slots.
• Despite a million trade ideas posted on message boards, GSW beat reporters seem to think there's an 85-90% chance GSW ends up just picking a guy at #2. GSW probably won't get fair value trading down, and the only stars / high-level players that are expected to be gettable in the offseason are Oladipo and Jrue, neither of whom is a clean positional fit with GSW's core, and neither of whom there's any indication GSW would be interested in targeting.
• ESPN projects Lamelo to MIN at #1, and also Sam Vecenie changed his MIN #1 projection from Edwards to Lamelo yesterday, based on what he was hearing (Rosas being very BPA- / value-oriented, rather than fit-focused). If that's the case, GSW will take Edwards almost certainly, as a bench scoring option who can yam all over second units. If Edwards goes #1, then #2 is NOT likely to be Lamelo (too raw shooting- / defense-wise) or Wiseman (too much money tied up in what is essentially the Javale McGee role), but rather someone like Deni Avdija. He is probably most likely, though Haliburton (in the Livingston role) and Vassell (top 3&D prospect in the draft) are other very real possibilities. GSW would be more likely to make an Anthony Bennett-ish reach than most other franchises. If they did trade down, they do like Saddiq Bey a lot.
• Of the guys currently on the roster, all will likely be on the team come next season except for Bowman, Toscano-Anderson, and Mulder. One of them could potentially make the roster (Mulder is most likely, since he's a good shooter and surprised Kerr, etc. by being a better defender than expected), with the other two on 2-way deals, or it could just be Bowman and Mulder on 2-ways and Toscano completely out.
• With so many newer holdovers from last year on the team (Paschall, Lee, Poole, Smailagic) they probably will not use both of their 2nd round picks. They will likely sell or trade one, maybe both of them.
• Big needs are: backup ball-handler/playmaker (likely a combo guard rather than a small DJ Augustin/JJ Barea-ish PG); a quality back-up wing or two; a traditional big man (think Bogut, Zaza), ideally who can stretch the floor and/or pass a little bit. They actually might pick up 2 centers this offseason, since Looney's health is such a question mark, but Kerr intends to play Draymond a lot more at the 5 anyway though, so it could go either way.
• TPE -- if used -- will likely absorb more of a salary-dump player than someone they spend major assets on. GSW has liked Rudy Gay for a long time and he would be a very realistic possibility as a small-ball 4 next to Draymond at 5. Maybe they send the Spurs a 2nd rounder or something. Olynyk is another possibility as a big stretch 5, if they feel its worth the luxury tax payment. If PHI cheaps out due to COVID, trading a future GSW 1st for Josh Richardson (as an Iguodala replacement) would be another possibility.
• Another much-discussed possibility with the TPE (which expires soon into the offseason) would be to take on someone like James Johnson as a kind of human cap hold and then flip him later -- possibly combined with other salaries like Looney -- in a separate deal for a larger salary. Aaron Gordon's name has popped up in rumors, but Jonathan Isaac's injury threw a wet blanket on all of that speculation.
• MLE: The dream would be Marc Gasol, if COVID depresses the market and he is also willing to take a little less to contend. Ibaka, Baynes, and Mason Plumlee are other possible centers. Possibilities at the 3 are Harkless and (perhaps for a fraction of the MLE) a reunion with Glenn Robinson III, since he loved his time w/ GSW. Paul Millsap is another name.
• Minimum: Roberson is a possibility, in case he's still got a little bit of defensive juice. Backup Livingston-ish ball handlers could be Evan Turner or Michael Carter Williams. Possibilities at the minimum are really just speculation; there's been little-to-no concrete reporting on that.

I hope this doesn't feel too off topic for this forum. I just know that while I could mock a realistic 2020 offseason for GSW, I'd probably have the Hawks getting rid of a guy that they actually really like, or drafting someone who it's been reported that they're low on. Just hoping we can put our heads together to help each other have a semi-realistic experience in MyLeague.

[brennanbeckley]

This is a great idea. Would love to help with a roster if it is not already done. Also, are you on PS4?

[26Belhanda]

Quote: Originally Posted by brennanbeckley

This is a great idea. Would love to help with a roster if it is not already done. Also, are you on PS4?

Would also love to help. It's not an easy process but it's always easier to make a good roster with multiple heads than only one.
Also agree with the GS analysis

[26Belhanda]

Tried to do the same thing

Utah Jazz

Old contracts
- Mike Conley should activate his 34.5M$ option as it is unlikely he will ever get a better contract and he’s on the second part of his career. I also see Tucker and Morgan coming back because of their nice impact on the Jazz’ G-League team, but also their relative impact on the main roster (reminder: Morgan became a temporary starter during the series against Denver). Miye Oni will also be kept imo, as he intrigues Utah with his 3&D potential, and the front office likes him, according to Tony Jones.
- Justin Wright-Foreman never really had an impact with the Jazz, so I see him leaving the team to leave a shot to another young undrafted player for a two-way. I also do not think Jarrell Brantley and Nigel Williams-Goss will be kept.
- According to the Athletic, the interest is mutual between Jordan Clarkson and the Jazz. The Jazz own his Bird rights, meaning they have a good argument for keeping him. I see them keeping him for a similar contract to what he had (13ish million value) but with a bird yearly increase. We got to keep in mind that the rest of the market may be unwilling to pay this sort of player much more money in that sanitary crisis context. Plus, Tony Jones, a well-informed Utah insider, believes Clarkson is just too valuable to let go for Utah.
- As to Emmanuel Mudiay, it’s a whole different business as the Jazz do not have rights on the guy. He was a correct player for Utah on his one-year deal, but he fell out of the rotation in the playoffs, with only 3 games played out of 7. I believe Utah will explore other options at the 1 position and keep Mudiay as a plan B, or take him anyways if he agrees to sign for a minimum contract once again.

Any trade on the horizon?
- To me, there won’t be any huge move to move a Utah player. Obviously, they could trade Gobert, especially if the contract negotiations on his next contract result in a disagreement, but I don’t see this happening.
- I see Utah trying deals that include Ed Davis, who was far from convincing in his first season with the Jazz, but still has market value as an energy player and rebounder. His contract is not too expensive at 5 million and it’s gonna be his last year, but he seems more injury prone and teams might not take a chance. But I see the Jazz still selling him for a second round pick (which they reportedly would want to acquire, per The Athletic).

Who to replace Mudiay then?
I think the team should make a priority of getting a good playmaker as their back-up point guard who would not be ball-dominant (Clarkson will be!!). A guy who would help make the offense less stagnant when the second unit is on the floor. Among the best options are Kris Dunn, DJ Augustin, Rajon Rondo, or Shabazz Napier. Obviously, they could also go for back-up PG at the draft, but players available at 23 are probably not going to contribute enough as backups for a playoff team. Still, Théo Malédon (the Jazz were one of the first teams to talk to him), Tre Jones, Nico Mannion, Cassius Winston or Devon Dotson fit the profile of quality playmakers who would fit well within a playoff team’s system. Kira Lewis would bring intensity to the second core, while being less of a playmaker. RJ Hampton is another possibility, but he reminds me too much of Dante Exum and I believe Utah will want someone that they are sure can have a sort of immediate contribution rather than potential at the guard position.

Filling the needs at the wing
- Utah VP of Basketball Operations emphasized his recruitment priority which included defensive and athletic players, with a contribution in terms of spacing if possible. So Utah will be looking at role players to compliment their existing players at the wing position. Once again, two kinds of targets here.
- Veteran FAs such as Solomon Hill, Moe Harkless, Wilson Chandler, James Ennis, Torrey Craig, DeMarre Carroll, Andre Roberson, Justin Holiday, Glenn Robinson III, Mario Hezonja, Pat Connaughton, Sterling Brown…
- Drafting a wing at 23. Many mock drafts see that happening, and it would make sense because Royce O’Neale is not an amazing value, and Joe Ingles is getting old. Saddiq Bey comes to mind immediately and I’d pick him if available above all of the above. Josh Green fits the researched profile perfectly, with his combination of defense, athleticism, shooting, and role player. That’s who ESPN sees them picking. The Athletic sees Jaden McDaniels as another target, but he’s too much of an unfinished product to me. If Green is gone at 23, and McDaniels is still here, I’d still take him as his potential as a 6’10 wing is very very interesting. Desmond Bane, Robert Woodard II would be decent options too.

The return of Favors?
- In that scenario where Ed Davis is gone, the Jazz need a guy on the interior to play as the second or third option in competition with Tony Bradley. A rumor reported by Tony Jones has it that Utah and former player Derrick Favors are mutually interested in a reunion. Still, Utah will probably not be able to offer a good contract (MLE) to both a good 3&D and a player like Favors (or Mason Plumlee/Tristan Thompson) in the interior. And the priority truly is on that wing position. Plus, a return of Favors could become an obstacle to Tony Bradley’s progress.
- The team needs a back-up big who’s a good interior defender but also a decent PnR threat, to make sure the second unit can have some kind of creativity on offense. So I think the team will lower its ambitions and get another 5: Baynes, Robin Lopez, Alex Len, Biyombo…
- If they get a second round pick, Utah could target an interior prospect like Tyler Bey, Xavier Tillman, Daniel Oturu…