FREE AGENCY 2018: LAYING THE FOUNDATION
Well, this is going to be interesting. I don't know if it's a byproduct of expansion, or the point in the offseason at which the rosters were generated, but the free agent pool is pretty craptastic, particularly for forwards. On defense, I actually have a fair number of guys to choose from so I think I'll be okay there, but the forwards... I have to hit on a lot of guys to even have an average team.
First things first, I'm going to basically pick out a “starting 20” and for those guys, I'll go a few hundred K over their ask to try and lock them in early. From there, I’ll look at one or two “safety” picks per position that can slot in if I whiff on a starter, or they can hide in the minors. Lastly, I’ll grab as many prospecty types and lottery tickets as I can find. I don’t plan on signing anyone’s RFAs unless I can get them below the threshold for giving up a draft pick.
“STARTING 20” OFFERS
- C: Paul Stastny (4/4.4), Tyler Bozak (4/3.7), Riley Nash (3/3.0), Riley Sheahan (2/2.5).
- LW: David Perron (6/5.0), Michael Grabner (2/3.2), Scott Hartnell (2/1.3), Chris Kunitz (2/1.4)
- RW: Leo Komarov (3/2.1), Ryan Reaves (1/1.8), Joel Ward (1/1.3), Jannik Hansen (1/2.0). Though I figure I can probably leave a spot here for Svechnikov.
- D: Mike Green (4/4.5), Andrej Sustr (3/3.2), Ian Cole (5/4.2), Calvin de Haan (6/4.5), Jack Johnson (3/2.4), Joe Morrow (2/1.7)
- G: Robin Lehner (4/4.0), Chad Johnson (2/1.8)
Taking stock, if I somehow got all those guys at those prices, I’d have $58M in contracts committed, leaving about $21M. Defense and goaltending would be credible. Center and left wing would be... tolerable? Right wing is basically going to be a tire fire regardless.
Next, let's add a few other picks: a combination of "safety picks" in case the starting 20 guys fall through and a few kinda-sorta prospecty guys.
Safety/Depth Bids: C Jay Beagle (1/1.8), C Derek Grant (2/1.6), LW Brandon Pirri (1/.875), LW William Carrier (1/1.075)
Prospect Bids: C Cedric Paquette (2/1.4), LW Jacob de la Rose (1/1.05), A Erne (2/1.15), RW Beau Bennett (2/.850), RW J.C. Lipon (1/.675), D Slater Koekkoek (2/1.35).
It should be mentioned that Carrier, Erne, and Koekkoek are RFAs, so even if they sign, their original teams could match.
With those bids submitted, I still have about $10M left, but I think I’ll go with those for now and see how the market develops.
JULY 5
We have our first results, and… it’s actually most of a team! As well as the quickest $52M I've ever spent in this game.
SIGNED (24): C Jay Beagle, RW Beau Bennett, D Ian Cole, LW Jacob de la Rose, LW Michael Grabner, C Derek Grant, D Mike Green, RW Jannik Hansen, LW Scott Hartnell, G Chad Johnson, D Jack Johnson, RW Leo Komarov, LW Chris Kunitz, RW J.C. Lipon, D Joe Morrow, C Riley Nash, G Robin Lehner, C Cedric Paquette, LW David Perron, LW Brandon Pirri, RW Ryan Reaves, C Riley Sheahan, D Andrej Sustr, RW Joel Ward.
DECLINED, STILL IN PLAY (1): Tyler Bozak
DECLINED, SIGNED ELSEWHERE or RFA (5): LW William Carrier (VGK), D Calvin de Haan (NYR), LW Adam Erne (TB), D Slater Koekkoek (TB), C Paul Stastny (BOS)
That actually went much better than I'd hoped. Losing Stastny and Bozak hurts a little because center is a weak position, but I got both Grant and Beagle for insurance. I like de Haan, but not sure 6 years at 4.5 was smart money anyway, and I did land the entire rest of my defense corps. And the RFAs were always going to be long shots.
EDIT:
Revisiting this after the fact, I had room to go back to Erne and Carrier. They didn't actually sign, they just rejected my offer, and their bids were still under the tender, so I could've made another pass but didn't.
Technically, none of my offers are still outstanding, so it’s almost like a partial reset to a more “normal” free agency cycle. I have about $25M in cap space, a few holes to fill, but if we’re being honest, there’s not much to buy.
FREE AGENCY 2.0 GOALS
- Might as well continue to make a run at Bozak, since I have the money to spend. Jump his offer to 4 years @ 3.8M. Probably an overpay, but we’ll figure it out later.
- What’s left on the wings isn’t notably better than what I have, so it would be spending money to spend money. Does adding Rick Nash or Mike Cammalleri really improve my team that much? I do need some bodies for the minors, but that’s about it. Or I suppose I could grab a few veterans for possible trade bait. I’ll circle back around after I look at other needs.
- Need at least one or two more defensemen to replace de Haan and have a real 7th. Dan Hamhuis (1 yr/2M) is boring, but as a 1-2 year stopgap, he’s fine. Similar with Alexei Emelin (3 yrs/1.6M). I also offer Christian Folin his ask (3 years @ 1.3M).
- Need some young goalies to develop in the minors. Niklas Rubin, Chris Driedger, and the colorfully named Elvis Merzlikins are all in that sorta-prospecty zone: 22-24 years old, rumored to have Starter potential. In an interesting coincidence, Driedger (2012) and Merzlikins (2014) were both pick #76 in their respective drafts. Rubin is two years younger than the others, for whatever that’s worth. I’m actually going to grab all three, and let competition sort out who sticks around.
- I do a quick scan for prospect types, but it’s not looking great. If you use “Top 6 F/Top 4 D under 25” as the cutoff, there doesn’t seem to be anyone left who’s not an RFA. Expanding it to Top 9 F/Top 6 D gives a few more options, but no one leaps out.
OK, let’s let the new round offers percolate and see where that leaves us.
JULY 8
Nik Rubin becomes the first of my minor-league goalies to sign.
JULY 9
All three defensemen (Hamhuis, Emelin, Folin) and the two goalies (Merzlikins and Driedger) accepted. Bozak rejected but still in play. Gonna try to go short deal but blow his money out of the water – 2 years @ 5M. Officially, that’s 30 players under contract and about $53M against the cap.
New offers: Bozak 2 years at 5M. Decide to offer on Mike Cammalleri (2/2.025M) and Jarome Iginla (1/1.35M) for veteran presence. Taylor Leier is low-end prospect so he gets an offer (2/1.125M); same with D Niko Mikkola (2/650k). Brian Gibbons (2/1.725M) and Matt Bartkowski (2/875k) because they’re fast and “fast for a defenseman” respectively. And Fredrik Claesson (1/900k) because at age 25 he has some room to grow. That’s 8 deals out, so let’s stop there for now.
JULY 12
Cammalleri rejects, Mikkola signs. I’ll give Cam a small bump to 2.2M, and I also notice Phillip DiGuiseppe as someone who might be sorta useful (decent speed, still under 25), so he gets 2 years at 850k.
JULY 13
FINALLY. Bozak signs. As do most of the remaining “little fish” offers. In fact at this point, I’m only waiting on Cammalleri and DiGuiseppe.
Let’s do a quick headcount. I like symmetry and I hate giving playing time to those minor-leaguers that I don’t control, so I like to be fully staffed. So that means 8 or 9 guys at each forward slot, and at least 12-14 defensemen.
CENTER (6): Beagle, Bozak, Grant, Nash, Paquette, Sheahan. Possibly leave a spot for Dellandrea if he looks good in camp? So, still could use one or two more guys just to even things out.
LEFT WING (7+2): de la Rose, Grabner, Hartnell, Kunitz, Leier, Perron, Pirri signed, plus offers on Cammalleri and DiGuiseppe. Theoretically set here.
RIGHT WING (8): Bennett, Gibbons, Hansen, Iginla, Komarov, Lipon, Reaves, Ward. Could also set aside a slot for Svechnikov. I mean, it’s a sucky group, but it’s basically set numbers-wise.
DEFENSEMEN (11): Bartkowski, Claesson, Cole, Emelin, Folin, Green, Hamhuis, J. Johnson, Mikkola, Morrow, Sustr. Could use a couple more bodies just to push the pre-gens off the minor-league roster.
GOALIES (5): Driedger, C. Johnson, Lehner, Merzlikins, Rubin.
Based on that headcount, I send out a few more “spare bodies, sorta prospecty” contracts: C Alan Quine (1/850k), C Joel Mustonen (2/675k), RW Zack Mitchell (2/725k), D Jordan Subban (1/650k), D Duncan Siemens (1/775k).
JULY 16
DiGuiseppe and Cammalleri sign, as does Mustonen from the new batch. Quine, Mitchell, Subban, and Siemens still TBD.
JULY 17
Last four guys sign.
44 guys under contract. Cap hit is around $60M so I’m over the salary floor (58.8M), though just barely. I have a little less than $20M left under the cap. I think that’s good enough to at least go to camp. I keep looking at Devin Setoguchi (he's fast -- but he's basically an older Beau Bennett) and there are still decent defensemen available though I have no idea where I'd play any of them. But if I wanted to maybe move a defenseman for help at forward (right wing), good to know there are still some guys available as replacement parts.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
(Free Agent Signings > $1M)
This will be a bigger feature in future seasons. This year, I think I pulled in 2/3rds of the free agents anyway.
ARI: D Michal Kempny, D Nick Holden
BOS: C Paul Stastny, D Toby Enstrom
COL: C Blake Coleman
CBJ: D Trevor Van Riemsdyk, C Thomas Plekanec
DAL: LW Adam Erne
LA: D Kevin Gravel
MTL; G Kari Lehtonen
NSH: LW Thomas Vanek
NYR: D Calvin de Haan
TB: D Slater Koekkoek
TOR: LW Rick Nash
VGK: LW William Carrier
WSH: C Kyle Brodziak, C Derek Ryan
WPG: C Adam Lowry, D Dennis Siedenberg
I'm kicking myself a little on Erne and Carrier -- it looks like there was room to bump both their offers up and stay under the tender limit, AND their teams wouldn't have matched. That kinda sucks. But it's not like either of those guys was the last piece of a Cup team. (Koekkoek at least went for more than the tender amount, so he would've cost me a pick.)