Correlation between Team OREB% and Team EFG%

[troyl]

I organize a 5-7 user in-person league for the past 5 years. We have accumulated 290 games (9-10) min qtrs each game. Our last tournament (17th), our largest to date, consisted of 60 games, which I kept track of the team data for. I log team stats manually and have made an interesting discovery.

We have long been aware that when taking an open shot and missing that open shot, there is a high likelihood that your team will retrieve the offensive rebound. Wang has stated previously that taking open shots is the key to winning. So it only makes sense that the CPU will help you out if you are taking open shots and you happen to miss, that will often give you an offensive rebound. Fair enough.

However, after noticing that a large number of good shot contests or blocks were resulting in offensive rebounds, I decided to start paying closer attention to the end game team stats. There seems to be a direct correlation between OREB% and EFG%. On average, Team A who has a higher EFG% will thus have a lower OREB%, likewise Team B who has a lower EFG% will thus have a higher OREB%.

My theory, backed by the data, is that the cpu is compensating for poor shooting skill by giving that user a higher percentage of offensive rebounds so that team has a better chance of staying in the game with more opportunities to score. Since offensive rebounding is generally not controlled by the user in 1v1 games, it appears that it is one of the major ways the CPU can interject it's "cheese" into the game. It's unfortunate as it tends to penalize good defense by giving the ball right back to the offense.

I'm curious if anyone has any experience with this, have drawn the same conclusions, or at least noticed it? I suggested to our league to significantly reduce the offensive rebounding slider and turn up the defensive rebounding slider, but that wasn't accepted as a viable option, due to the fact that I am one of the more effective scorers in the league, they voted to keep the cheese. I'm sure Mike W. will deny that it is programmed into gameplay but it's pretty obvious once you step back and look at the data, it's undeniable.

[Coach2K]

Quote: Originally Posted by troyl

I organize a 5-7 user in-person league for the past 5 years. We have accumulated 290 games (9-10) min qtrs each game. Our last tournament (17th), our largest to date, consisted of 60 games, which I kept track of the team data for. I log team stats manually and have made an interesting discovery. We have long been aware that when taking an open shot and missing that open shot, there is a high likelihood that your team will retrieve the offensive rebound. Wang has stated previously that taking open shots is the key to winning. So it only makes sense that the CPU will help you out if you are taking open shots and you happen to miss, that will often give you an offensive rebound. Fair enough. However, after noticing that a large number of good shot contests or blocks were resulting in offensive rebounds, I decided to start paying closer attention to the end game team stats. There seems to be a direct correlation between OREB% and EFG%. On average, Team A who has a higher EFG% will thus have a lower OREB%, likewise Team B who has a lower EFG% will thus have a higher OREB%. My theory, backed by the data, is that the cpu is compensating for poor shooting skill by giving that user a higher percentage of offensive rebounds so that team has a better chance of staying in the game with more opportunities to score. Since offensive rebounding is generally not controlled by the user in 1v1 games, it appears that it is one of the major ways the CPU can interject it's "cheese" into the game. It's unfortunate as it tends to penalize good defense by giving the ball right back to the offense. I'm curious if anyone has any experience with this, have drawn the same conclusions, or at least noticed it? I suggested to our league to significantly reduce the offensive rebounding slider and turn up the defensive rebounding slider, but that wasn't accepted as a viable option, due to the fact that I am one of the more effective scorers in the league, they voted to keep the cheese. I'm sure Mike W. will deny that it is programmed into gameplay but it's pretty obvious once you step back and look at the data, it's undeniable.

I thought I was the one that pointed out the open shot connection to offensive rebounding phenomenon which I think is total BS...lol. (I also think fg% goes up after a tipped pass or block and three point fg% goes down if the defense doesn’t contest the three but stays in the paint).

I’d take issue with your point that poor shooters are rewarded. Good open shots are rewarded offensive rebounds.

Offensive rebounds are also rewarded to people who stick their big in the restricted area when they shoot which many, many people do.

A higher fg% or higher %efg indicates there are fewer offensive rebounds to get so I’m not sure this data means much.


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[troyl]

Quote: Originally Posted by www.Coach2K.com

A higher fg% or higher %efg indicates there are fewer offensive rebounds to get so I’m not sure this data means much.

To clarify, the correlation is not directly related to total offensive rebounds per team but rather the offensive rebound percentage of each team, which is quite a significant difference. Raw offensive rebound numbers can be deceiving unless total available rebounds is then factored in to give a better picture. OREB% = OREB/(OREB + Opp. DREB). If more shots are missed, its obvious that more raw offensive rebounds will be obtained, however the average PERCENTAGE of offensive rebounds for both teams should be about the same, but its not. As efg% goes down for a team, oreb% goes up for the same team.

[Coach2K]

Quote: Originally Posted by troyl

To clarify, the correlation is not directly related to total offensive rebounds per team but rather the offensive rebound percentage of each team, which is quite a significant difference. Raw offensive rebound numbers can be deceiving unless total available rebounds is then factored in to give a better picture. OREB% = OREB/(OREB + Opp. DREB). If more shots are missed, its obvious that more raw offensive rebounds will be obtained, however the average PERCENTAGE of offensive rebounds for both teams should be about the same, but its not. As efg% goes down for a team, oreb% goes up for the same team.

I see what you are saying. Maybe, but if I shoot 65% or 75% from the floor, I’m shooting more twos in the paint and there are fewer threes which would decrease the percentage of offensive rebounds.


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[troyl]

Quote: Originally Posted by www.Coach2K.com

I see what you are saying. Maybe, but if I shoot 65% or 75% from the floor, I’m shooting more twos in the paint and there are fewer threes which would decrease the percentage of offensive rebounds.

I believe you are confusing raw values and percentages. I will provide watered down comparative examples...

Normal Rebounding Distribution:
Stat - Team A - Team B
FG ---- 75 -------- 50
FGA -- 100 ------ 100
FG% -- 75% ----- 50%
Oreb -- 6 --------- 12
Dreb -- 38 --------- 19
OREB%- 24% ----- 24%

What 2K CPU is Doing:
Stat - Team A - Team B
FG ---- 75 -------- 50
FGA -- 100 ------ 100
FG% -- 75% ----- 50%
Oreb -- 3 --------- 18
Dreb -- 32 --------- 22
OREB%- 12% ----- 36%

Example 1 is an ideal example that would fall under the range of normal statistics.

Example 2 is a common example of what is happening in 2K when one team shoots a higher shooting percentage than the other team.

Since Oreb% is considered 1 of the 4 major factors of winning basketball and the CPU is taking it upon itself to help a poor shooting team by increasing the rate at which Oreb occur for that team and decreasing the rate at which Oreb occur for the better shooting team, it is, the epitome of cheese.

[Real2KInsider]

There is no rubberband programmed for rebounds.

A higher eFG% likely means more threes, which are harder to rebound than shots at the rim.