Unlocking the hidden "Potential" of this game

[FarFromEer]

The 2054 season having just concluded, it becomes a time of reflection for the 106 year old head coach. Does he continue on with the passion that has driven him for so long in his career? For Nick Saban, is it enough to have won 20 national titles and over 700 games? Only he knows if he will be on the sidelines as the Crimson Tide take the field at the start of the 2055 season.


What does any of that have to do with unlocking the "potential" of the game? Nothing, other than needing to to pick a coach that isn't going to get fired while you sim a lot of seasons to collect data (I collected the save files from 2018-2054). I've been trying to see what works and doesn't work (like blocking strength and footwork ratings) behind the scenes of the game using the editor and for this post, focused on the potential (PPOE) rating field all recruits and players have. The values range from 40-99 and is somewhat inversely related to the player's initial overall rating:

Spoiler

PPOE Avg OVR for Freshmen prior to training
40 68.09
41 65.30
42 65.18
43 64.71
44 64.18
45 64.49
46 63.94
47 63.68
48 64.13
49 63.38
50 63.64
51 63.03
52 63.52
53 62.78
54 62.41
55 61.47
56 62.14
57 61.04
58 60.45
59 60.76
60 60.12
61 59.88
62 59.70
63 59.09
64 59.19
65 59.21
66 57.94
67 57.45
68 58.00
69 58.16
70 56.57
71 57.81
72 58.54
73 58.18
74 56.50
75 55.96
76 55.17
77 56.66
78 57.94
79 56.32
80 56.25
81 55.99
82 55.40
83 56.67
84 54.63
85 54.15
86 52.80
87 53.64
88 53.33
89 52.09
90 52.31
91 53.27
92 44.50
93 52.00
94 48.88
95 50.40
96 54.83
97 50.90
98 49.67
99 49.34

I measured the season ending training results for all players with an OVR >40 and <99. I intentionally ignored in-season skill changes and only recorded the change from the weeks before and after training results. In all, there are 254,596 data points in my analysis, with each player can have up to four data points in the set. The majority of all generated players (50.8%) have a potential rating of 40. Here are the results of the data:

Spoiler

PPOE Players Avg OVR Increase
40 129373 4.47
41 7443 4.43
42 7760 4.44
43 5539 4.43
44 6685 4.44
45 6759 4.43
46 6220 4.61
47 5548 4.61
48 7245 4.61
49 5204 4.59
50 5376 4.60
51 5355 4.60
52 5136 4.81
53 4588 4.76
54 5131 4.70
55 3023 4.75
56 3799 4.78
57 3574 4.80
58 2791 4.91
59 3087 4.91
60 3244 4.90
61 1959 4.89
62 2061 4.91
63 2292 4.86
64 1887 5.06
65 1944 5.13
66 1309 5.10
67 960 4.95
68 1084 5.03
69 1203 5.06
70 982 5.27
71 981 5.14
72 876 5.32
73 690 5.31
74 399 5.21
75 415 5.39
76 428 5.56
77 313 5.28
78 258 5.37
79 323 5.50
80 193 5.62
81 276 5.42
82 108 5.39
83 84 5.54
84 123 5.47
85 62 5.74
86 98 5.97
87 40 5.53
88 14 5.57
89 39 5.87
90 49 5.90
91 45 5.93
92 12 5.25
93 9 5.56
94 27 6.00
95 13 6.15
96 14 6.29
97 37 5.95
98 19 5.89
99 90 6.46

What can you do with this information? Without the editor, not much, other than knowing that low OVR players may have better training results than higher OVR players. However, it is there, and it does work. Roster editors can utilize this to affect how players develop in the off season. Personally, I have incorporated it into my recruiting spreadsheet. When recruiting between two very similar recruits, it could become the x factor that has me choosing one over the other.

[scdb12]

Is it reasonable to say that if I have a 76 ovr Freshman that red-shirts and stays all 5 years, that he will progress to 98 ovr.

Another example, if I have a 68 ovr Freshman by the time he is a SR (RS) he should be an 88 ovr?

IF this is true, then one can assume that if you stay at a school for 5 years and recruit nothing but 3 star players (there may be some gems) with an avg rating of 68, your team should be 88-90 Ovr.

Interesting work.

[FarFromEer]

Quote: Originally Posted by scdb12

Is it reasonable to say that if I have a 76 ovr Freshman that red-shirts and stays all 5 years, that he will progress to 98 ovr. Another example, if I have a 68 ovr Freshman by the time he is a SR (RS) he should be an 88 ovr? IF this is true, then one can assume that if you stay at a school for 5 years and recruit nothing but 3 star players (there may be some gems) with an avg rating of 68, your team should be 88-90 Ovr. Interesting work.

The higher the potential, the higher the average increase in OVR. At 40 potential, the observed OVR increase ranges from 2-7. At 99, the observed OVR increase ranges from 4-9.

In your example of the 76 OVR true freshman:

- To achieve an average of 5.5 OVR increase per year (98-76=22/4=5.5), they would need to probably have a potential rating above 80. Of the true freshmen generated in the game, 99.47% of the players are below 80 potential.

- The highest potential assigned by the game for a true freshman with a 76 OVR is 49.

- At a max potential of 49, it is more likely that your 76 OVR will become 94 as a RS senior

In your example of the 68 OVR true freshman:

- The highest potential assigned by the game for a true freshman with a 68 OVR is 67.

- At a max potential of 67, it is likely that your 68 OVR will become 88 as a RS senior

[Matt23134]

You were able to sim beyond ~5 years while using the editor and didn't experience any freezing issues?

[FarFromEer]

Quote: Originally Posted by Matt23134

You were able to sim beyond ~5 years while using the editor and didn't experience any freezing issues?

I did use the editor on the original roster file, but did not make any editor changes after starting the dynasty.

[Skulletor]

Quote: Originally Posted by Matt23134

You were able to sim beyond ~5 years while using the editor and didn't experience any freezing issues?

I’ve used the editor for around 265 seasons without issue

[tarheelguy4736]

Quote: Originally Posted by Skulletor

I’ve used the editor for around 265 seasons without issue

Your work and dedication with NCAA, Skulletor, still amazes me

[tking23]

Do any of y'all happen to have a full list of the headers used in the roster/recruiting editor?