The Auction House

[harryl]

The AH gets discussed a lot in other threads but I thought we maybe can have a thread dedicated to buying and selling...the market aspects of the game.

I have a selfish interest, in that I'm hoping for some quick inout, especially from PC players: I've got a Big Men Kareem I've decided to sell because I've seen how nuts the prices for Kareem and Wilt can be.

They can go over 900K. I just had the auction on my Lanier close at 300K.

So, my question is: when to sell and how long?

Normally I'd put it up for 24h auction but tomorrow new Historics drop and I'm worried market will get more depressed.

But I don't really want to wait a week or whatever because...who knows what will happen in the market in the meantime.

I am thinking about putting it up for a 4hr auction starting now. Seems bad timing because it'll close at like 1am West Coast IS time, East Coast will be asleep, Europe will be in middle of their day...but will be prime time in Asia.

Anybody have thoughts on this question?

And, of course, I'm also encouraging any other discussion related to AH trading...

[TheReign]

Quote: Originally Posted by harryl

The AH gets discussed a lot in other threads but I thought we maybe can have a thread dedicated to buying and selling...the market aspects of the game. I have a selfish interest, in that I'm hoping for some quick inout, especially from PC players: I've got a Big Men Kareem I've decided to sell because I've seen how nuts the prices for Kareem and Wilt can be. They can go over 900K. I just had the auction on my Lanier close at 300K. So, my question is: when to sell and how long? Normally I'd put it up for 24h auction but tomorrow new Historics drop and I'm worried market will get more depressed. But I don't really want to wait a week or whatever because...who knows what will happen in the market in the meantime. I am thinking about putting it up for a 4hr auction starting now. Seems bad timing because it'll close at like 1am West Coast IS time, East Coast will be asleep, Europe will be in middle of their day...but will be prime time in Asia. Anybody have thoughts on this question? And, of course, I'm also encouraging any other discussion related to AH trading...

Speaking as someone that wishes they had another ruby Shaq, another Amy Vince Carter, and the like.. I just wonder what KAJ's value will be like once they drop the Laker's pack and/or DD him Worthy or with the Amy, Dream Team or another version of Magic. The whole Heat Shaq rush all over again. Just my thoughts, I could be wrong.

[harryl]

Quote: Originally Posted by TheReign

Speaking as someone that wishes they had another ruby Shaq, another Amy Vince Carter, and the like.. I just wonder what KAJ's value will be like once they drop the Laker's pack and/or DD him Worthy or with the Amy, Dream Team or another version of Magic. The whole Heat Shaq rush all over again. Just my thoughts, I could be wrong.

That's a good thought.

The reason why I feel like selling sooner than later is that I think there's more potential downside than upside. I saw a Kareem get bid up higher than 900K in last 24 hours (PC) and I don't imagine it can get much higher than that (could very well be wrong). But I can imagine it getting lower.

It's probably not going to drop any time soon, though. I think most of the value comes from being needed for Ewing for Barkley, so some better center coming out in the meantime is not going to change things dramatically.

So unless I can feel comfortable with an auction ending at 5am East Coast USA time, maybe just see how things go in the market this week. Historic packs may not have dramatic effect on the market and maybe almost none on an expired pack card like Kareem.

[TheReign]

Quote: Originally Posted by harryl

That's a good thought. The reason why I feel like selling sooner than later is that I think there's more potential downside than upside. I saw a Kareem get bid up higher than 900K in last 24 hours (PC) and I don't imagine it can get much higher than that (could very well be wrong). But I can imagine it getting lower. It's probably not going to drop any time soon, though. I think most of the value comes from being needed for Ewing for Barkley, so some better center coming out in the meantime is not going to change things dramatically. So unless I can feel comfortable with an auction ending at 5am East Coast USA time, maybe just see how things go in the market this week. Historic packs may not have dramatic effect on the market and maybe almost none on an expired pack card like Kareem.

Well you have everything in your favor either way, possible DD, someone's possible last card for that pack getting more valuable as they dry up(case in point the Toronto ruby Stoudamire always pulls over 100k whenever it pops up and that appearance gets more rare), a build towards Ewing and ultimately Barkley. Finally, other than Bucks Kareem/Alcindor or some Legendary moment's KAJ, can't imagine he'll get many more cards if any more.

[harryl]

As always, I'm on PC, so AH dynamics could be very different than on consoles.

Going to share a possible AH "investment" opportunity created by Historic Packs.

We all know that Historic cards get to the AH in one of two ways: 1. they are released as part of Throwback packs when it's that team's turn for two weeks, and 2. they are drawn by players during Historic Domination games.

The cards that were rarely drawn in Hist Dom have generally inflated values due to rarity, and will become cheaper when they can be pulled in Throwback packs. The cards that are commonly drawn in Hist Dom are often pretty cheap, because a very high proportion of Hist Dom players pull them. And they're usually not desirable cards to play with, so many of them are sold, not kept/played.

Generally speaking, TB packs will drive down the price of the Historic cards they contain, because supply goes from very limited to plentiful.

But on the first day that packs are released, the market is really irrational. Players suddenly pay attention to a team's Historic collection and try to collect cards, presumably willing to overpay for them because they're really impatient about adding to their collection count or whatever.

So, often times, what I see is that, for a brief period, cheap Historic cards that were selling for 1,000-3,000 MT before their TB packs come out, actually go up in value.

Put down some small bets on cheap Knicks Historic Emeralds by buying up about 4 each of Phil Jackson and Wilson Chandler for under 2,000 MT. Just for kicks and to see if I can end up selling them later today for, like, 5,000 MT.

[harryl]

Quote: Originally Posted by harryl

Put down some small bets on cheap Knicks Historic Emeralds by buying up about 4 each of Phil Jackson and Wilson Chandler for under 2,000 MT. Just for kicks and to see if I can end up selling them later today for, like, 5,000 MT.

Hah. So much for that. Looks like everyone who had Jackson and Chandler are trying to unload them, so there's a bunch of super-cheap ones.

Don't understand the thought process of selling off a historic card for 2000 MT. At that amount, might as well just keep it.

[harryl]

Quote: Originally Posted by harryl

I've got a Big Men Kareem I've decided to sell because I've seen how nuts the prices for Kareem and Wilt can be. ... Normally I'd put it up for 24h auction but tomorrow new Historics drop and I'm worried market will get more depressed. ... I am thinking about putting it up for a 4hr auction starting now. Seems bad timing because it'll close at like 1am West Coast IS time, East Coast will be asleep, Europe will be in middle of their day...but will be prime time in Asia.

So, whereas I saw Kareem and Wilt definitely sell for around or over 900K (PC AH) in the last 48-72 hours, right now there is a Kareem with 5 minutes left, with a 515,640 bid on it. And a Wilt with 30 minutes left with a bid of 664,000 on it.

Both could be bid up high in the final minute/seconds, but I didn't watch the final minute of those 900K+ examples, and who knows where they ended up.

I'm assuming it was bad for an auction to close right now...as in...almost 1am in Asia, before 6pm in Europe, 12pm East Coast USA, 9am West Coast, enjoying no region's prime evening hours. And a double whammy of lower bidding due to new packs about to be released.

That Kareem just closed at 515K as I typed this. PC AH is so crazy.

[Offballer4life]

Quote: Originally Posted by harryl

I'm assuming it was bad for an auction to close right now...as in...almost 1am in Asia, before 6pm in Europe, 12pm East Coast USA, 9am West Coast, enjoying no region's prime evening hours. And a double whammy of lower bidding due to new packs about to be released.

This is a major oversight by AH workers.

I care not to divulge my sniping secrets, but I will tell you for sure that there are amazing deals to be had in the "odd" times of the day (basically any time where Americans sleep lol). I have a routine of filters that I go thru on every refresh. I have been keeping track of pricing at different times of the day. Buy during slow periods. Sell during peak times. Ive come across Sapphire Currys for < 3k (PS4) or GSW playbooks for 250MT that are still up 20 minutes after a refresh..during these low-traffic times. I always check the AH before work and before bed. If I wake up in the middle of the night to take a leak, I check it. The MT grind is real.

That paragraph above should get any non-sniper going.