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Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Ratings

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Old 08-08-2016, 05:42 PM   #1
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Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Ratings

Madden NFL 17 Statistical Analysis
Correlation Between Combine Scores and In-Game Ratings
Version 2.0
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Idea Origin, Fundamental Questions, and Methodology

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Speed

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Strength
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Jumping

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Agility


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Acceleration

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Conclusion

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Possible Future Works

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Old 08-08-2016, 05:45 PM   #2
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Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

I still don't understand why people want players based solely off of combine numbers when play speed is more important. Who cares about 40 time that much?
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Old 08-08-2016, 05:46 PM   #3
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Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

This is interesting, thanks for doing this.

Out of curiosity - could you perform a regression analysis between ACC ratings and prospect 10-yard split times?
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Old 08-08-2016, 05:49 PM   #4
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Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

Quote:
Originally Posted by manEATgod
I still don't understand why people want players based solely off of combine numbers when play speed is more important. Who cares about 40 time that much?
Fun fact, In talking with John White recently he told me players won't be a one for one in CFM draft classes this year. While the combine results will give you a general area the points will differ a couple points either way. His reasoning was there is a difference in track speed and football speed and they wanted to allow for that a bit. It is the same with other attributes, but that was the example he used.
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Old 08-08-2016, 05:53 PM   #5
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Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

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Originally Posted by manEATgod
I still don't understand why people want players based solely off of combine numbers when play speed is more important. Who cares about 40 time that much?
"Game speed" isn't a real thing. A player doesn't have slower straight-line speed by some arbitrary amount or cut more sluggishly solely because he puts on a set of pads and a helmet.

What people refer to when they say "game speed" is technique and mental abilities. How well does a receiver disguise the stem of his route to make a great cut and break open? How well does a cornerback flip his hips from a backpedal to man coverage? How quickly does a free safety react to the quarterback tipping his shoulder up to launch a pass? None of these things affect how fast a player runs or how high he can jump, but they do affect the extent to which he can leverage his athletic abilities to succeed on the field.

A player with great athletic traits can afford to be a little slower mentally or a little bit less refined speaking to technique because he can make up for it with raw athleticism. Similarly, a player with less athletic ability can "play faster" than his measurable by having great technique and cognitive abilities; he recognizes and reacts to developing plays faster, so he can begin to put himself in position to make a play before his opponent does. In fact, a slower player with elite technical abilities can often beat the more athletic but less refined player; see Jerry Rice and his 4.71 forty as a prime example of this.

To that end, the physical ratings in Madden should be determined by measurable, and the technical ratings - Man Coverage, Block Shedding, Play Recognition, etc. etc. - should be used to determine "game speed".
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Old 08-08-2016, 05:57 PM   #6
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Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

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Originally Posted by CM Hooe
"Game speed" isn't a real thing. A player doesn't have slower straight-line speed by some arbitrary amount or cut more sluggishly solely because he puts on a set of pads and a helmet.

What people refer to when they say "game speed" is technique and mental abilities. How well does a receiver disguise the stem of his route to make a great cut and break open? How well does a cornerback flip his hips from a backpedal to man coverage? How quickly does a free safety react to the quarterback tipping his shoulder up to launch a pass? None of these things affect how fast a player runs or how high he can jump, but they do affect the extent to which he can leverage his athletic abilities to succeed on the field.

A player with great athletic traits can afford to be a little slower mentally or a little bit less refined speaking to technique because he can make up for it with raw athleticism. Similarly, a player with less athletic ability can "play faster" than his measurable by having great technique and cognitive abilities; he recognizes and reacts to developing plays faster, so he can begin to put himself in position to make a play before his opponent does. In fact, a slower player with elite technical abilities can often beat the more athletic but less refined player; see Jerry Rice and his 4.71 forty as a prime example of this.

To that end, the physical ratings in Madden should be determined by measurable, and the technical ratings - Man Coverage, Block Shedding, Play Recognition, etc. etc. - should be used to determine "game speed".
I think the argument falls apart because they start in sprinter stances and train for month with sprinting coaches on how to get out of the blocks. If they did it from the stance you start a normal play in for each position I'd agree with you.
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Old 08-08-2016, 06:07 PM   #7
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Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

Quote:
Originally Posted by T4VERTS
Fun fact, In talking with John White recently he told me players won't be a one for one in CFM draft classes this year. While the combine results will give you a general area the points will differ a couple points either way. His reasoning was there is a difference in track speed and football speed and they wanted to allow for that a bit. It is the same with other attributes, but that was the example he used.
I know that some people are going to melt down when they discover this in the game, but I like this decision.
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Old 08-08-2016, 06:09 PM   #8
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Re: Statistical Analysis: Correlation between Combine Scores and Madden 17 Rookie Rat

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Originally Posted by T4VERTS
I think the argument falls apart because they start in sprinter stances and train for month with sprinting coaches on how to get out of the blocks. If they did it from the stance you start a normal play in for each position I'd agree with you.
I don't see how it makes a difference. If anything, the initial burst for every player is going to be proportionally slower, since no one in the NFL starts in a sprinter's stance. Once players get up to speed, however - admittedly this rarely happens, given how few busted plays there are in the NFL - they are going to run however fast they timed at. If a player can't react to a developing play fast enough or doesn't have good enough technique to beat an opponent, however, 4.3 speed doesn't matter; he gets slowed down because of things other than his ability to run.

Example: Vikings WR Cordarrelle Patterson has struggled in the NFL despite his athleticism because he can't beat a press or make a clean route cut to get open. He's still very obviously very fast and has great vision and elusiveness as a ballcarrier - look at his success on kick returns and his 4.42 40 as very real proof of this - but his great athleticism doesn't matter when he plays receiver because his technique is so poor. He is every bit as fast as his times say he is and demonstrates that effortlessly when returning kicks, but his isn't a good enough football player to take advantage of his athletic gifts as a receiver.
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