This is how I understand it as well, regarding production and a player's projected round/pick.
It seems throughout the season, the more the production of a prospect increases or decreases (if somewhat drastically up or down), it seems that their projected round or pick changes, from where they started at the beginning of a season. I notice it happen more often when their production increases, that their projected pick is raised more towards the end of a season.
Also, it seems the early round picks, as well as the better picks in the early rounds have the higher production numbers throughout the season, from what I've seemed to notice, at least.